How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
p1stonhead said:
Rovinghawk said:
drainbrain said:
Congratulations on what appears to be a very impressive deal.This pours a lot of cold water on the suggestion that property is out of FTBs' reach.
Rovinghawk said:
p1stonhead said:
In Glasgow.
In Glasgow, but other locations are available. We don't all feel the need to live in Kensington.https://www.google.com/maps/@55.815204,-4.3523815,...
As an investment though - seems fairly spot on to be fair.
p1stonhead said:
I dont live any where near Kensington, but I think I may prefer to having looked at streetview
https://www.google.com/maps/@55.815204,-4.3523815,...
As a presumed Londoner you might be scared of the space & lack of traffic. The green stuff is grass & trees.https://www.google.com/maps/@55.815204,-4.3523815,...
Rovinghawk said:
p1stonhead said:
I dont live any where near Kensington, but I think I may prefer to having looked at streetview
https://www.google.com/maps/@55.815204,-4.3523815,...
As a presumed Londoner you might be scared of the space & lack of traffic. The green stuff is grass & trees.https://www.google.com/maps/@55.815204,-4.3523815,...
As a presumed Northerner the thing in the below photo is the sun
p1stonhead said:
I dont live any where near Kensington, but I think I may prefer to having looked at streetview of the flat in Glasgow
https://www.google.com/maps/@55.815204,-4.3523815,...
As an investment though - seems fairly spot on to be fair.
Did you read the bit where I told you that the area has been refurbished and regenerated? https://www.google.com/maps/@55.815204,-4.3523815,...
As an investment though - seems fairly spot on to be fair.
This kind of thing (in fact exactly that):
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@55.8694513,-4.09525...
O, by the way, I own the one on the middle floor in line with the barrow....
What's this recent and weird obsession with this thread being obsessed about London all about? Firstly this thread isn't obsessed with London. Historically it was overly interested in West Surrey, okgo et al frequently bring KT postcodes to the party and in recent times (thanks in no small part to p1stonhead) Reigate has been overly represented. London comes up a fair bit, understandably not least since plenty of the populace live there, as do many PHers, but this obsession about a non-obsession is most odd.
If people don't want to talk about London (property prices) they can simply start talking about other places. It's quite simple.
If people don't want to talk about London (property prices) they can simply start talking about other places. It's quite simple.
p1stonhead said:
Id say the crack den boarded up block of flats takes the shine off the place to be honest
As a presumed Northerner the thing in the below photo is the sun
Naaa....don't let them fool you, that's just a cartoon drawing of the sun.As a presumed Northerner the thing in the below photo is the sun
Here's the sun (albeit setting) over Glasgow.....
https://photos.smugmug.com/Landscape-Scenery/Sunse...
O and the "boarded up crack den" is actually the result of a fire in a (now fully refurbished) building.
Actually, if you move the street view round to the left you'll see what the whole area is like now.
Edited by drainbrain on Friday 22 September 16:44
scenario8 said:
What's this recent and weird obsession with this thread being obsessed about London all about? Firstly this thread isn't obsessed with London. Historically it was overly interested in West Surrey, okgo et al frequently bring KT postcodes to the party and in recent times (thanks in no small part to p1stonhead) Reigate has been overly represented. London comes up a fair bit, understandably not least since plenty of the populace live there, as do many PHers, but this obsession about a non-obsession is most odd.
If people don't want to talk about London (property prices) they can simply start talking about other places. It's quite simple.
It’s a fairly simple combination;If people don't want to talk about London (property prices) they can simply start talking about other places. It's quite simple.
People talk about where they know.
Evidently lots of PH’ers are in the South East.
House prices are mental in the South East more than anywhere else.
In a thread about silly house prices obviously the South East will be discussed more.
p1stonhead said:
It’s a fairly simple combination;
People talk about where they know.
Evidently lots of PH’ers are in the South East.
House prices are mental in the South East more than anywhere else.
In a thread about silly house prices obviously the South East will be discussed more.
Mental is the point.People talk about where they know.
Evidently lots of PH’ers are in the South East.
House prices are mental in the South East more than anywhere else.
In a thread about silly house prices obviously the South East will be discussed more.
I could post some places up in Cheshire that to me, in Hertfordshire, look like absolute bargains with loads of space. However, if I want to point to something which is ludicrously priced and "must be about to crash", the SE is where there's an abundance. Albeit still a lack of crash so far, this time round imo.
Pork said:
p1stonhead said:
It’s a fairly simple combination;
People talk about where they know.
Evidently lots of PH’ers are in the South East.
House prices are mental in the South East more than anywhere else.
In a thread about silly house prices obviously the South East will be discussed more.
Mental is the point.People talk about where they know.
Evidently lots of PH’ers are in the South East.
House prices are mental in the South East more than anywhere else.
In a thread about silly house prices obviously the South East will be discussed more.
I could post some places up in Cheshire that to me, in Hertfordshire, look like absolute bargains with loads of space. However, if I want to point to something which is ludicrously priced and "must be about to crash", the SE is where there's an abundance. Albeit still a lack of crash so far, this time round imo.
There should be an opposite thread to this of ‘look bloody good value this is!’
The South East wouldn’t feature at all.
There are other European capitals where good business is waiting to be done. I am invited to invest in one such Eurozone location where average 1 bed prices are €20k for easily lettable units, using the refinancing of Berlin property where price inflation has outpaced London by some magnitude but where gains cannot be crystallised because of the savage rate of CGT.
Problem is rents aren't as relatively high as they are for what can be bought on the doorstep here.
Problem is rents aren't as relatively high as they are for what can be bought on the doorstep here.
Edited by drainbrain on Friday 22 September 18:01
V6Alfisti said:
Say that to people that have lost their homes in a market crash - sorry but short sighted/naive but not entirely surprised, there is a reason it has taken so long for people to cotton on.
Also where did you buy (as local conditions vary), and less of a concern in the sub £400k market as exposure is less (although of course depending on salary multiples - sorry I am very 'conditioned' to the London market). Also you say well within budget, alot of the people here are talking about London which typically means flats in the range of £400-900k and houses ranging from £800k-£1.5m, even outside of London multiples are typically a big stretch/impossible for people. So whilst you may have had a massive buffer, the majority are not in that position.
One of my colleagues had the same stand point as you when he bought a house last year (although he was absolutely certain that prices would keep rise, so stopped thinking), now they are expecting a baby and want somewhere larger. However they are stuck, as the house prices have fallen (albiet modestly - about £20k) and they had to drop about £20k on stamp duty, and guess what...they would need another £25k (stamp duty) for the house they were looking at (it is a different areas, but presumably that would have dropped a little as well given it is not a million miles away). Add that little lot up and thats £65k (or arguably £40k given you will always need to pay stamp duty) down in one year (without legals/arrangement fees) and they are now stuck as a result.
Well if you lost your home that's your own fault, most of the time. Also where did you buy (as local conditions vary), and less of a concern in the sub £400k market as exposure is less (although of course depending on salary multiples - sorry I am very 'conditioned' to the London market). Also you say well within budget, alot of the people here are talking about London which typically means flats in the range of £400-900k and houses ranging from £800k-£1.5m, even outside of London multiples are typically a big stretch/impossible for people. So whilst you may have had a massive buffer, the majority are not in that position.
One of my colleagues had the same stand point as you when he bought a house last year (although he was absolutely certain that prices would keep rise, so stopped thinking), now they are expecting a baby and want somewhere larger. However they are stuck, as the house prices have fallen (albiet modestly - about £20k) and they had to drop about £20k on stamp duty, and guess what...they would need another £25k (stamp duty) for the house they were looking at (it is a different areas, but presumably that would have dropped a little as well given it is not a million miles away). Add that little lot up and thats £65k (or arguably £40k given you will always need to pay stamp duty) down in one year (without legals/arrangement fees) and they are now stuck as a result.
If people wish to overstretch themselves then that's no responsibility of mine (aside from the financial responsibility of bailing the banks out).
I bought in North Yorkshire. At less than 2.5x combined income.
Buy a house for the medium-long term and you'll be fine, as far as I'm concerned.
We all need somewhere to live. Renting for anything other than the short term is a mugs game.
Your mate obviously didn't have the foresight to future proof his illiquid purchase. A product of people being taught what to think, rather than how.
That, and most men allow women to make financial decisions, which is never a good idea. (Call me what you like, but it's blindingly obvious the majority of women and much worse with money than the majority of men).
No one is absolutely tied down (very few have no choice whatsoever) to the area they are in/wish to be in.
Edited by TheLordJohn on Friday 22 September 18:26
Edited by TheLordJohn on Friday 22 September 18:51
TheLordJohn said:
Well if you lost your home that's your own fault, most of the time.
If people wish to overstretch themselves then that's no responsibility of mine (aside from the financial responsibility of bailing the banks out).
I bought in North Yorkshire. At less than 2.5x combined income.
Buy a house for the medium-long term and you'll be fine, as far as I'm concerned.
We all need somewhere to live. Renting for anything other than the short term is a mugs game.
Your mate obviously didn't have the foresight to future proof his illiquid purchase. A product of people being taught what to think, rather than how.
That, and most men allow women to make financial decisions, which is never a good idea. (Call me what you like, but it's blindingly obvious the majority of women and much worse with money than the majority of men).
No one is absolutely tied down (very few have no choice whatsoever) to the area they are in/wish to be in.
No offence but that is a far more affordable part of the country (which 2bh is the smart choice) , there are absolutely stacks of people in the south east stretching themselves, my mate is one of many many many thousands. Hence the introduction on inter generation mortgages and help to buy (which is really help the builders).If people wish to overstretch themselves then that's no responsibility of mine (aside from the financial responsibility of bailing the banks out).
I bought in North Yorkshire. At less than 2.5x combined income.
Buy a house for the medium-long term and you'll be fine, as far as I'm concerned.
We all need somewhere to live. Renting for anything other than the short term is a mugs game.
Your mate obviously didn't have the foresight to future proof his illiquid purchase. A product of people being taught what to think, rather than how.
That, and most men allow women to make financial decisions, which is never a good idea. (Call me what you like, but it's blindingly obvious the majority of women and much worse with money than the majority of men).
No one is absolutely tied down (very few have no choice whatsoever) to the area they are in/wish to be in.
Edited by TheLordJohn on Friday 22 September 18:26
Edited by TheLordJohn on Friday 22 September 18:51
If people were on 2.5x multiples down here, property would be flying. I think the average property price is about 13x versus average salary in London.
Also I agree that people don't think these things through, oddly even less so down here where the level of risk is currently flashing a bright red and has been for a while for anyone bothered to look.
And like I said before even some outer Surrey places have lost 16k in one year, that's the same as renting in zone 2 London. Let alone the 8k in rail travel for a couple and commute times.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Friday 22 September 22:32
dazwalsh said:
So in a nutshell from my own perception it appears the southeast is stalling a wee bit but other areas still going strong?
I'm waiting for a crash up here in Leeds but no signs of it just yet.
London has always lead the UK property market with (mostly) price rises ''rippling out''... it might be a few more months yet but the rest of the UK will eventually catch the cold that London currently has.I'm waiting for a crash up here in Leeds but no signs of it just yet.
mike74 said:
London has always lead the UK property market with (mostly) price rises ''rippling out''... it might be a few more months yet but the rest of the UK will eventually catch the cold that London currently has.
Home Counties are extremely flat in the £700k + market that I've seen locally. The buyers have simply dried up
I think in that £900k plus Home Counties market - and to an extent in London too - there is a definite wait and see whether the chancellor reforms sdlt sentiment.
The talk of the 'London market' by many on here is of course an over-simplification. Within London, there are multiple markets, segmented both by geography and property type. Some are performing very poorly - super prime central, for example - some are seeing significantly slowed or nil growth and some are still performing strongly.
Someone (Tonker I think) also mentioned market sentiment and that is, as always, right. There is a caution in the market and this is manifesting itself in those finely balanced segments as only the good and realistivpcally priced stuff selling
The talk of the 'London market' by many on here is of course an over-simplification. Within London, there are multiple markets, segmented both by geography and property type. Some are performing very poorly - super prime central, for example - some are seeing significantly slowed or nil growth and some are still performing strongly.
Someone (Tonker I think) also mentioned market sentiment and that is, as always, right. There is a caution in the market and this is manifesting itself in those finely balanced segments as only the good and realistivpcally priced stuff selling
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