How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
z4RRSchris said:
cbit annoying if you bought a flat in phase 1 and have to wait 10 years for the pool and gym.
Also a bit annoying if you bought a flat in phase 1 and find that you could now have bought it at a hefty discount. Not many people have had that feeling in London of late, but I guess it is the ones buying off plan in this type of development that are most likely to.There is a new development in Kingston that appears to be paused at the moment, either that or it is going up slowly even by UK standards. I wouldn't be surprised if they do pause it as the previous development are still trying to sell 1 bed flats for £600k into a market where the prevailing price for similar-sized older flats is less than £400k (and going down).
Interesting times, especially for a lot of people who have never seen this before.
kingston12 said:
z4RRSchris said:
cbit annoying if you bought a flat in phase 1 and have to wait 10 years for the pool and gym.
Also a bit annoying if you bought a flat in phase 1 and find that you could now have bought it at a hefty discount. Not many people have had that feeling in London of late, but I guess it is the ones buying off plan in this type of development that are most likely to.There is a new development in Kingston that appears to be paused at the moment, either that or it is going up slowly even by UK standards. I wouldn't be surprised if they do pause it as the previous development are still trying to sell 1 bed flats for £600k into a market where the prevailing price for similar-sized older flats is less than £400k (and going down).
Interesting times, especially for a lot of people who have never seen this before.
Is it possible to structure "Most Favoured Nation" deals with developers - i.e. I'll buy it at £X but I want a guarantee that I pay the equal lowest £/sqft on the development? If they sell another flat at a lower £/sqft, then they have to cut you a cheque. I guess you need a way to monitor this and the developer has to survive...
kingston12 said:
Also a bit annoying if you bought a flat in phase 1 and find that you could now have bought it at a hefty discount. Not many people have had that feeling in London of late, but I guess it is the ones buying off plan in this type of development that are most likely to.
There is a new development in Kingston that appears to be paused at the moment, either that or it is going up slowly even by UK standards. I wouldn't be surprised if they do pause it as the previous development are still trying to sell 1 bed flats for £600k into a market where the prevailing price for similar-sized older flats is less than £400k (and going down).
Interesting times, especially for a lot of people who have never seen this before.
1 bed flats in Kingston for £600k and more? Just had a look and they’re exactly as one might have anticipated. Under 600 sq ft, kitchenette within the lounge, bedrooms you could barely squeeze a double bed and a bedside table within etc. Not on the river, not with a river view.There is a new development in Kingston that appears to be paused at the moment, either that or it is going up slowly even by UK standards. I wouldn't be surprised if they do pause it as the previous development are still trying to sell 1 bed flats for £600k into a market where the prevailing price for similar-sized older flats is less than £400k (and going down).
Interesting times, especially for a lot of people who have never seen this before.
Bonkersness.
scenario8 said:
1 bed flats in Kingston for £600k and more? Just had a look and they’re exactly as one might have anticipated. Under 600 sq ft, kitchenette within the lounge, bedrooms you could barely squeeze a double bed and a bedside table within etc. Not on the river, not with a river view.
Bonkersness.
Yep, I think we touched on them in one of the housing related threads a couple of weeks ago. They have basically targeted £1,000 per square foot which buys into far more central parts of London and is way over the going rate for Kingston.Bonkersness.
This means that a tiny studio is £475k which buys you a decent-ish 2 bed flat in a lot of the rest of the area, a 1 bed is £600k which buys you a really nice 2 bed flat elsewhere, and £750k+ for 2 beds which would get you into a small house.
The worst part about it, not only aren't they on/near the river, but they are on the choking one-way system in a part of town with not much going for it. Unlike a lot of people, I really like Kingston, but I certainly wouldn't be paying a premium to live in that part of it.
There are lots of new tower blocks approved here, all of them in the worst parts of town, but very little building activity. The developers must be crapping themselves if they really thought they could sell many at these prices.
kingston12 said:
scenario8 said:
1 bed flats in Kingston for £600k and more? Just had a look and they’re exactly as one might have anticipated. Under 600 sq ft, kitchenette within the lounge, bedrooms you could barely squeeze a double bed and a bedside table within etc. Not on the river, not with a river view.
Bonkersness.
Yep, I think we touched on them in one of the housing related threads a couple of weeks ago. They have basically targeted £1,000 per square foot which buys into far more central parts of London and is way over the going rate for Kingston.Bonkersness.
This means that a tiny studio is £475k which buys you a decent-ish 2 bed flat in a lot of the rest of the area, a 1 bed is £600k which buys you a really nice 2 bed flat elsewhere, and £750k+ for 2 beds which would get you into a small house.
The worst part about it, not only aren't they on/near the river, but they are on the choking one-way system in a part of town with not much going for it. Unlike a lot of people, I really like Kingston, but I certainly wouldn't be paying a premium to live in that part of it.
There are lots of new tower blocks approved here, all of them in the worst parts of town, but very little building activity. The developers must be crapping themselves if they really thought they could sell many at these prices.
Yields would be pathetic.
I also understand there are hundreds of units within approved applications. There are already thousands upon thousands of supposedly premium units near central Kingston.
I don’t understand it at all.
On the whole senior management within the big construction consortiums are clever sods. Maybe one of them can run their thoughts past me on these projects.
scenario8 said:
I don’t imagine you’ll recall that I’m local(ish) and work within this silly property retailing game. If I’d driven past that site and seen a big old sign boasting of x number of 1 & 2 bed flats starting from £y I’d have imagined the y began with a 3. And even then I’d have wondered to myself quite how the numbers would stack up (from the perspective of a potential purchaser). Even at £350,000ish the earnings/borrowings/gifting/deposit numbers are remarkable (from a non Central London perspective). At circa £600,000 I just don’t get it at all.
Yields would be pathetic.
I also understand there are hundreds of units within approved applications. There are already thousands upon thousands of supposedly premium units near central Kingston.
I don’t understand it at all.
On the whole senior management within the big construction consortiums are clever sods. Maybe one of them can run their thoughts past me on these projects.
Isn’t it mainly Help to Buy? £350k for a standard 1 bed flat in Kingston seems about right with prevailing market conditions (even if that is really stupid in itself), so the developers stick these on at £600k, the government pay 40% and the buyer the other 60%.Yields would be pathetic.
I also understand there are hundreds of units within approved applications. There are already thousands upon thousands of supposedly premium units near central Kingston.
I don’t understand it at all.
On the whole senior management within the big construction consortiums are clever sods. Maybe one of them can run their thoughts past me on these projects.
No one seems to care that this doesn’t really add up because in a couple of years the property miracle means that the flats will be worth £1m anyway. Except these won’t, even if the bubble stays inflated.
p1stonhead said:
.
While I have your attn have we spoken before about a previous residence of yours on Alexander Rd or do I have you mistaken for another?It would be wholly unprofessional for me to even mention there may have been significant activity on that house very recently. Nudge. Wink.
p1stonhead said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I assume they are the Canbury Gardens way. Those blocks are huge. For me, anything on or near the one way system is too rough and busy to consider living in at all, let alone consider ‘premium’.
Bear in mind that is coming from someone who really likes the area as a whole, and will probably live around here until I move out of London/SE altogether. I can still totally understand prospective buyers going around the one way system to that development not knowing the area, and just not bothering with the viewing!
The council have deliberately neglected a lot of parts of the town centre to reduce opposition when developers want to build tower blocks to ‘regenerate’ those areas. It seems to have worked, but they have got to sell them all now...
Edited by kingston12 on Tuesday 27th March 18:25
scenario8 said:
p1stonhead said:
.
While I have your attn have we spoken before about a previous residence of yours on Alexander Rd or do I have you mistaken for another?It would be wholly unprofessional for me to even mention there may have been significant activity on that house very recently. Nudge. Wink.
kingston12 said:
If only! The development I am talking about is Queenshurst which isn’t that far away but it is right on the noisiest part of the one way system between Sainsbury’s and Kingston station.
Drive past it everyday as I park round the back there in Sury Basin for work... Wondered why it was so quiet!My mate just bought a 2-bed, a walk from the office (on the one-way) for £375k... Probably not a new build though (haven't seen it).
If anyone recalls that Oxshott semi with the extensions we had last week (Llittleheath lane)... That's already under offer!
On the other hand... Nothing else that's been on for a similar figure has shifted in weeks/ months!
kingston12 said:
p1stonhead said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I assume they are the Canbury Gardens way. Those blocks are huge. For me, anything on or near the one way system is too rough and busy to consider living in at all, let alone consider ‘premium’.
Bear in mind that is coming from someone who really likes the area as a whole, and will probably live around here until I move out of London/SE altogether. I can still totally understand prospective buyers going around the one way system to that development not knowing the area, and just not bothering with the viewing!
The council have deliberately neglected a lot of parts of the town centre to reduce opposition when developers want to build tower blocks to ‘regenerate’ those areas. It seems to have worked, but they have got to sell them all now...
Edited by kingston12 on Tuesday 27th March 18:22
Edited by kingston12 on Tuesday 27th March 18:23
dom9 said:
kingston12 said:
If only! The development I am talking about is Queenshurst which isn’t that far away but it is right on the noisiest part of the one way system between Sainsbury’s and Kingston station.
Drive past it everyday as I park round the back there in Sury Basin for work... Wondered why it was so quiet!My mate just bought a 2-bed, a walk from the office (on the one-way) for £375k... Probably not a new build though (haven't seen it).
If anyone recalls that Oxshott semi with the extensions we had last week (Llittleheath lane)... That's already under offer!
On the other hand... Nothing else that's been on for a similar figure has shifted in weeks/ months!
It’s one of the few houses a few of us on here didn’t think was too bad!
dom9 said:
kingston12 said:
If only! The development I am talking about is Queenshurst which isn’t that far away but it is right on the noisiest part of the one way system between Sainsbury’s and Kingston station.
Drive past it everyday as I park round the back there in Sury Basin for work... Wondered why it was so quiet!My mate just bought a 2-bed, a walk from the office (on the one-way) for £375k... Probably not a new build though (haven't seen it).
dom9 said:
If anyone recalls that Oxshott semi with the extensions we had last week (Llittleheath lane)... That's already under offer!
On the other hand... Nothing else that's been on for a similar figure has shifted in weeks/ months!
I'm not surprised, I quite liked the look of that, and didn't think it was too bad for the money given the premium put on the area.On the other hand... Nothing else that's been on for a similar figure has shifted in weeks/ months!
The market around here is very segmented. Everytime a reasonably-sized house comes on in the centre of Surbiton around a million, hands are being bitten off. My Rightmove alert has shown a few that are already sold before they hit the market, and that seems to be an increasing trend.
Everything else seems to be sticking, including the tiny 850sqft cottages near the river that used to be very in-demand and normal priced flats.
p1stonhead said:
The old gas works? Horrible location
Indeed. I'm not sure if it is actually Queenshurst that is built on the old gas container site or if that was used for one of the many other developments that have gone up on adjacent sites in recent years, That whole area is awful now, just mega-blocks of flats dissected by the polluted one-way system. I can't imagine the commute is great either as the trains must be really busy and they all take half an hour or more into Waterloo.scenario8 said:
I don’t imagine you’ll recall that I’m local(ish) and work within this silly property retailing game. If I’d driven past that site and seen a big old sign boasting of x number of 1 & 2 bed flats starting from £y I’d have imagined the y began with a 3. And even then I’d have wondered to myself quite how the numbers would stack up (from the perspective of a potential purchaser). Even at £350,000ish the earnings/borrowings/gifting/deposit numbers are remarkable (from a non Central London perspective). At circa £600,000 I just don’t get it at all.
Yields would be pathetic.
I also understand there are hundreds of units within approved applications. There are already thousands upon thousands of supposedly premium units near central Kingston.
I don’t understand it at all.
On the whole senior management within the big construction consortiums are clever sods. Maybe one of them can run their thoughts past me on these projects.
As the saying goes, follow the money.Yields would be pathetic.
I also understand there are hundreds of units within approved applications. There are already thousands upon thousands of supposedly premium units near central Kingston.
I don’t understand it at all.
On the whole senior management within the big construction consortiums are clever sods. Maybe one of them can run their thoughts past me on these projects.
Kingston council sends reps annually to the Cannes property conferences, these trips over last few years have been paid for by CNM Estates, Berkley Group, British Land and Willmott Dixon...
With the background of the Tory council chief, his son's new cushy job and so on, money is being made (for example Wilmott were recently awarded a £9m contract to build a council Dementia Home), if they don't sell and any investors get burnt, then so be it!
Edited by hyphen on Tuesday 27th March 21:39
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