How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[gibbon]

alfaman said:

(Currently live in a 1600 -1700 ft2 full serviced condo in a prime location ..with huge gym and medium size pool (in the gulf) ... which would sell for 200k GBP... 2m- 3m for that in prime london? Probably 800k or more in prime areas commutable to London? !)

I don’t know what the solution is for the UK ...

And yet to me the overpriced thing in that description is your gulf flat. I wouldnt want to live there if it was 200 quid.

[Rovinghawk]

NickCQ said:

it's about making the wealth distribution more equal,

I paid tax on my earned income to invest.
I paid tax on the materials & tools I bought to use.
I paid tax when buying the properties (SDLT).
I pay tax on the rental income- not only on the profit but on the turnover.
I pay tax on any CG when I sell the properties.

I'd say that society has had a decent share already.

I'd suggest that certain parts of this society go out & earn some wealth rather than have some of mine distributed to them. If that makes me a bad person IYO then so be it.

[hyphen]

Rovinghawk said:

I paid tax on my earned income to invest.
I paid tax on the materials & tools I bought to use.
I paid tax when buying the properties (SDLT).
I pay tax on the rental income- not only on the profit but on the turnover.
I pay tax on any CG when I sell the properties.

I'd say that society has had a decent share already.

I'd suggest that certain parts of this society go out & earn some wealth rather than have some of mine distributed to them. If that makes me a bad person IYO then so be it.

Normally, yes. But if you have benefitted from the extraordinary house price increases, than should this 'free money' be accounted for?

[alfaman]

gibbon said:

And yet to me the overpriced thing in that description is your gulf flat. I wouldnt want to live there if it was 200 quid.

Each to his own.

Have you lived in any of Bahrain / Dubai / Oman ? What don’t you like ?

[Rovinghawk]

hyphen said:

But if you have benefitted from the extraordinary house price increases

I haven't been involved in the London madness, just ordinary inflation.

hyphen said:

should this 'free money' be accounted for?

In terms of tax on the rent, IPT on the house insurance, VAT on maintenance, fees for pointless licences or CGT upon disposal?

edited to add: If house prices had crashed would anyone be so keen to compensate me for my losses as they are to claim a share of any gains? I don't think so.

Edited by Rovinghawk on Tuesday 8th May 16:59

[gibbon]

alfaman said:

Each to his own.

Have you lived in any of Bahrain / Dubai / Oman ? What don’t you like ?

I have not, and i wouldn't out of principle.

Without wishing to derail the thread, lets pick the easiest one, Dubai, why would i not want to spend £200k on bling bling new flat there? A couple of reasons that spring to mind, but there are many many more-

• Human rights regarding labour, building and the development of the whole place.
• Womens rights
• Gay rights
• Ecological / environmental damage and view / outlook
• 22nd most expensive city in the world, yet ethically completely archaic
• Sharia Law
• Lack of any history / culture that appeals to me
• Tax system
• Social system

I could go on.

[alfaman]

gibbon said:

I have not, and i wouldn't out of principle.

Without wishing to derail the thread, lets pick the easiest one, Dubai, why would i not want to spend £200k on bling bling new flat there? A couple of reasons that spring to mind, but there are many many more-

• Human rights regarding labour, building and the development of the whole place.
• Womens rights
• Gay rights
• Ecological / environmental damage and view / outlook
• 22nd most expensive city in the world, yet ethically completely archaic
• Sharia Law
• Lack of any history / culture that appeals to me
• Tax system
• Social system

I could go on.

It’s in Bahrain actually.

Was rated by Internations as the best expat place to live globally in 2016. Based on a members survey. (Out of around 150 locations)... I actually would put it behind Singapore. UAE was not very highly rated.

Much cheaper place to live than much of UK and a bit more chilled out than UAE with regard to religious laws.

[chunder27]

Aren't you all ignoring the basic fact that no-one is doing anything whatsoever about the house price increases in the UK, and sooner or later it has to implode.

It simply has to, as eventually no-one whatsoever unless you are a couple earning well over 150k a year will be able to buy a house South of Birmingham.

That CANNOT be sustainable or keep rising.

Somebody somewhere just simply has to do something about it eventually.

[p1stonhead]

chunder27 said:

Aren't you all ignoring the basic fact that no-one is doing anything whatsoever about the house price increases in the UK, and sooner or later it has to implode.

It simply has to, as eventually no-one whatsoever unless you are a couple earning well over 150k a year will be able to buy a house South of Birmingham.

That CANNOT be sustainable or keep rising.

Somebody somewhere just simply has to do something about it eventually.

People have been saying the same for 15 years solidly. Seems not much has been done so far. Don’t forget those making the rules probably have a lot of their wealth in property and don’t want there to be a crash at all.

Edited by p1stonhead on Tuesday 8th May 17:04

[NickCQ]

Rovinghawk said:

If house prices had crashed would anyone be so keen to compensate me for my losses as they are to claim a share of any gains? I don't think so.

You must have missed out on the huge amounts of cash pumped into the system to sustain asset prices after the financial crisis then (i.e. QE)

[hyphen]

chunder27 said:

Aren't you all ignoring the basic fact that no-one is doing anything whatsoever about the house price increases in the UK, and sooner or later it has to implode.

It simply has to, as eventually no-one whatsoever unless you are a couple earning well over 150k a year will be able to buy a house South of Birmingham.

That CANNOT be sustainable or keep rising.

Somebody somewhere just simply has to do something about it eventually.

House prices in this manner are not sustainable only if free from governmental interference. If it crashes, it will be due to something no one could have foreseen, otherwise worst case appears they may reach a peak and stay there.

[Rovinghawk]

chunder27 said:

eventually no-one whatsoever unless you are a couple earning well over 150k a year will be able to buy a house South of Birmingham.

I've checked Zoopla & Rightmove- houses are available north of Birmingham.

chunder27 said:

Somebody somewhere just simply has to do something about it eventually.

Somehow, sometime? That's the most ineffectual handwringing whinge ever to grace the pages of NP&E.

[Rovinghawk]

NickCQ said:

Rovinghawk said:

If house prices had crashed would anyone be so keen to compensate me for my losses as they are to claim a share of any gains? I don't think so.

You must have missed out on the huge amounts of cash pumped into the system to sustain asset prices after the financial crisis then (i.e. QE)

I ask again: if house prices had crashed would anyone be so keen to compensate me for my losses? It was a simple question capable of a simple yes/no answer, which I actually provided thinking that it would help you reply.

If I'd lost money that would have been purely my issue so I don't have a great urge to be preyed upon when making a profit.

[hyphen]

Rovinghawk said:

I ask again: if house prices had crashed would anyone be so keen to compensate me for my losses? It was a simple question capable of a simple yes/no answer, which I actually provided thinking that it would help you reply.

Can you not carry forward/offset your losses for CGT/other tax purposes?

[kingston12]

chunder27 said:

Aren't you all ignoring the basic fact that no-one is doing anything whatsoever about the house price increases in the UK, and sooner or later it has to implode.

It simply has to, as eventually no-one whatsoever unless you are a couple earning well over 150k a year will be able to buy a house South of Birmingham.

That CANNOT be sustainable or keep rising.

Somebody somewhere just simply has to do something about it eventually.

What are they going to actually do about it? There are very few politicians who would actively look to crash the housing market whilst they are in power, especially with the London/SE bubble so big that it would probably take a lot more with it.

The only answer that might be palatable now is managed stability/stagnation, which is what we are seeing now in the more expensive parts of London/SE. It should be pretty easy to achieve that just by standing still (no or slow interest rate rises and no expansion of schemes like Help to Buy)

It certainly won't satisfy everyone, but it might be the best way to take the heat out of the problem without seriously harming too many people.

[edh]

Rovinghawk said:

NickCQ said:

Rovinghawk said:

If house prices had crashed would anyone be so keen to compensate me for my losses as they are to claim a share of any gains? I don't think so.

You must have missed out on the huge amounts of cash pumped into the system to sustain asset prices after the financial crisis then (i.e. QE)

I ask again: if house prices had crashed would anyone be so keen to compensate me for my losses? It was a simple question capable of a simple yes/no answer, which I actually provided thinking that it would help you reply.

If I'd lost money that would have been purely my issue so I don't have a great urge to be preyed upon when making a profit.

Your LVT would go down if land prices went down, so yes. HTH

[Justayellowbadge]

edh said:

Your LVT would go down if land prices went down, so yes. HTH

A tax that by its very existence causes returns to diminish. That does sound like the way to go.

[NickCQ]

Rovinghawk said:

I ask again: if house prices had crashed would anyone be so keen to compensate me for my losses? It was a simple question capable of a simple yes/no answer, which I actually provided thinking that it would help you reply.

I did try and answer. Let me rephrase.

When it looked like house prices were about to fall, reducing your profits, the powers that be (i.e. the Bank of England) decided to inflate the money supply through QE, creating new money to buy bonds, reducing interest rates and propping up the value of all assets, including property.

QE creates inflation, which is a tax on labour that reduces real wages (as nominal wages are sticky and don't adjust to the new price level). Therefore, wage slaves all over the country experienced a moderation in real wage growth, and this benefitted asset owners such as ourselves.

So in short, yes, people all over the country dipped into their pockets without realising it so that we didn't make a loss.
Hope I explained myself properly this time

[mike74]

Rovinghawk said:

I paid tax on my earned income to invest.
I paid tax on the materials & tools I bought to use.
I paid tax when buying the properties (SDLT).
I pay tax on the rental income- not only on the profit but on the turnover.
I pay tax on any CG when I sell the properties.

I'd say that society has had a decent share already.

I'd suggest that certain parts of this society go out & earn some wealth rather than have some of mine distributed to them. If that makes me a bad person IYO then so be it.

You're honestly trying to say that being a leveraged landlord having someone pay off your BTL mortgage is ''earning wealth''...

wow, just wow.

[Francois de La Rochefoucauld]

Any chance you lot can 'get a room'. This thread is about house prices not the ethics of BTL.

If you're that concerned about intergenerational fairness stop waisting your time 'wow just wowing' on here and go and start re- distributing your own I'll gotten booty sharpish.