How far will house prices fall [volume 4]

[z4RRSchris]

i can hear pretty much every single sentance or footstep of anyone who walks past my flat and im on the 2nd floor. when the rudebois drive past im woken up. drives me insane.

old building with st thin windows.

[Alfa numeric]

hyphen said:

Alfa numeric said:

We left Kingston in 2015 after six great years, I love the place. Looking at the area I lived in (just off Hawks Road) it seems that prices haven't moved since we put ours on the market in late 2014.

Bit of an odd area that though. Houses have character and look well maintained, however you have Cambridge road on one side, and the tip on the other.

The school on villiers road also (based on appearance of the parents collecting the kids the one time I drove past) seemed to be not desirable compared to others in Kingston.

We have (well todo) friends with a kid at the nursery on hawks road, were very surprised when they said it, as it's next to the estates and main roads but they are very happy with it, so guessing pricey enough to offer good learning and also put off any rougher estate residents.

Edited by hyphen on Saturday 16th June 12:17

True, but most of the houses didn't seem to be occupied by families, it seemed to be either young couples or retirees on my street. The catholic school attached to the nursery apparently has a good reputation and there's always the Grammar School if you fancy blowing the best part of twenty grand a year per child...

The Cambridge Estate and tip are close by but unless you live on Portman Road you don't get much through traffic as all of the other roads are dead ends. We lived on Linden Crescent for five years and had no problems, even when we once left our front door open when we went out for the day.

[p1stonhead]

Alfa numeric said:

hyphen said:

Alfa numeric said:

We left Kingston in 2015 after six great years, I love the place. Looking at the area I lived in (just off Hawks Road) it seems that prices haven't moved since we put ours on the market in late 2014.

Bit of an odd area that though. Houses have character and look well maintained, however you have Cambridge road on one side, and the tip on the other.

The school on villiers road also (based on appearance of the parents collecting the kids the one time I drove past) seemed to be not desirable compared to others in Kingston.

We have (well todo) friends with a kid at the nursery on hawks road, were very surprised when they said it, as it's next to the estates and main roads but they are very happy with it, so guessing pricey enough to offer good learning and also put off any rougher estate residents.

Edited by hyphen on Saturday 16th June 12:17

True, but most of the houses didn't seem to be occupied by families, it seemed to be either young couples or retirees on my street. The catholic school attached to the nursery apparently has a good reputation and there's always the Grammar School if you fancy blowing the best part of twenty grand a year per child...

The Cambridge Estate and tip are close by but unless you live on Portman Road you don't get much through traffic as all of the other roads are dead ends. We lived on Linden Crescent for five years and had no problems, even when we once left our front door open when we went out for the day.

Dont diss my ends bruv!

I grew up on the Cambridge Estate until 18. What a jolly nice place

Thankfully I went to school in Coombe Hill and all my mates were posh so I didnt get in with the wrong crowd. Three of the four kids I did know on the estate are in prison......

[Alfa numeric]

p1stonhead said:

Dont diss my ends bruv!

I grew up on the Cambridge Estate until 18. What a jolly nice place

Thankfully I went to school in Coombe Hill and all my mates were posh so I didnt get in with the wrong crowd. Three of the four kids I did know on the estate are in prison......

No dissing was meant to be implied, I was referring to through traffic!

[p1stonhead]

Alfa numeric said:

p1stonhead said:

Dont diss my ends bruv!

I grew up on the Cambridge Estate until 18. What a jolly nice place

Thankfully I went to school in Coombe Hill and all my mates were posh so I didnt get in with the wrong crowd. Three of the four kids I did know on the estate are in prison......

No dissing was meant to be implied, I was referring to through traffic!

Dont worry - it was a st hole. My beloved 1988 fiesta was nicked from outside the flat and burnt out at Raynes Park station

[kingston12]

Alfa numeric said:

True, but most of the houses didn't seem to be occupied by families, it seemed to be either young couples or retirees on my street. The catholic school attached to the nursery apparently has a good reputation and there's always the Grammar School if you fancy blowing the best part of twenty grand a year per child...

The Cambridge Estate and tip are close by but unless you live on Portman Road you don't get much through traffic as all of the other roads are dead ends. We lived on Linden Crescent for five years and had no problems, even when we once left our front door open when we went out for the day.

I think the proximity of the estate and tip just give better value for money without really any problems. South Kingston is cheaper than north Kingston anyway and that part a bit cheaper still. That said, I saw this has come on the market just the other side of the estate which looks fairly horrendously priced:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

[p1stonhead]

kingston12 said:

Alfa numeric said:

True, but most of the houses didn't seem to be occupied by families, it seemed to be either young couples or retirees on my street. The catholic school attached to the nursery apparently has a good reputation and there's always the Grammar School if you fancy blowing the best part of twenty grand a year per child...

The Cambridge Estate and tip are close by but unless you live on Portman Road you don't get much through traffic as all of the other roads are dead ends. We lived on Linden Crescent for five years and had no problems, even when we once left our front door open when we went out for the day.

I think the proximity of the estate and tip just give better value for money without really any problems. South Kingston is cheaper than north Kingston anyway and that part a bit cheaper still. That said, I saw this has come on the market just the other side of the estate which looks fairly horrendously priced:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

That price is fking ludicrous.

As for the interior - someone thinks they live on St. Georges Hill.

[princeperch]

the docklands also seems to be giving fairer value last few months

stuff like this http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... would have easily have been 600k plus 2 years ago..fair enough its not the best bit of the docklands but its v close to the wharf, has a private parking space and at just under 1200 sq ft? the only catch would be a 7k service charge which I suspect it might be hiding..

[okgo]

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

I posted this earlier in the thread, maybe last year, they were asking 3 million then, it was quite quirky in how it was done inside, lovely, but quite niche. I noticed they have had painters in there for a long time, clearly blank canvassing it and lopping off half a million to boot...Stupid house though, nobody ever going to spend that to live on a road of flat blocks, should have converted it into 4 flats

[kingston12]

okgo said:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

I posted this earlier in the thread, maybe last year, they were asking 3 million then, it was quite quirky in how it was done inside, lovely, but quite niche. I noticed they have had painters in there for a long time, clearly blank canvassing it and lopping off half a million to boot...Stupid house though, nobody ever going to spend that to live on a road of flat blocks, should have converted it into 4 flats

Yep, wrong area for that type of house. People with £2.5m to spend are more likely to want that house recently posted on the thread in Weybridge or something closer into town. If they are going to spend that type of money in Surbiton, it would be on a big place on the Southborough estate which is much less spoilt.

If Oakhill had been left alone, it would be quite different. I have lived in Surbiton for years and I have only walked through that area once. It's very quiet and secluded (no reason to go there unless you live there), but within steps of the fast connection to London. If it was still packed with the original houses, it could have become quite an enclave.

No chance of that now and unless they can squeeze five flats out of this one they have got very little chance of getting £2.5m in total.

[V6Alfisti]

okgo said:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

I posted this earlier in the thread, maybe last year, they were asking 3 million then, it was quite quirky in how it was done inside, lovely, but quite niche. I noticed they have had painters in there for a long time, clearly blank canvassing it and lopping off half a million to boot...Stupid house though, nobody ever going to spend that to live on a road of flat blocks, should have converted it into 4 flats

Yikes the asking price of that one is £300,000 down on what it sold for 3 years ago, let alone any haggling, decoration, stamp duty and mortgage payments..... that has probably cost them:

£300k asset loss
£250k stamp duty loss
Whether bought with cash or mortgage, use an interest only loss at 1.2% which will cover both interest only, and an average savings rate (if someone with that much would really just stick it in a bank!) over the period = £37k a year, so £100k.
And the rest...

That is a £650k loss, or £216k loss a year. That is painful whether it was lived in, or as seems to be the case...hoarding decorators, must be a forced sale or some other shenanigans?

[ujio]

princeperch said:

the docklands also seems to be giving fairer value last few months

stuff like this http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope... would have easily have been 600k plus 2 years ago..fair enough its not the best bit of the docklands but its v close to the wharf, has a private parking space and at just under 1200 sq ft? the only catch would be a 7k service charge which I suspect it might be hiding..

You're right, which makes you realise just how insane the market has got! That side of Limehouse is like a ghetto and I would hate to be paying Half a million for a place where I would be a neighbour of council trash (the people not rubbish!). If you continue further towards the river it gets a lot better but you do still have to be weary of the marauding scrotes.

I live in Limehouse basin and have to deal with those sh*ts a bit too regularly.

[kingston12]

V6Alfisti said:

That is a £650k loss, or £216k loss a year. That is painful whether it was lived in, or as seems to be the case...hoarding decorators, must be a forced sale or some other shenanigans?

2015 was about the peak of the silliness in this area, but £2.8m was really silly money for that house even then.

There are a very limited number of people with that much money to spend around Surbiton. It seems that you can easily sell a dilapidated 1,200 sqft semi for £1m and there will probably be a queue. Unfortunately for these sellers, having a house three times the size does not mean they will get anything like three times the money.

There will bee the odd buyer of course, but I can't see how this would get anything over £2m even if someone falls in love with it. Then again, I'm also stunned that it sold for as much as £1.2m in 2006.

[V6Alfisti]

kingston12 said:

2015 was about the peak of the silliness in this area, but £2.8m was really silly money for that house even then.

There are a very limited number of people with that much money to spend around Surbiton. It seems that you can easily sell a dilapidated 1,200 sqft semi for £1m and there will probably be a queue. Unfortunately for these sellers, having a house three times the size does not mean they will get anything like three times the money.

There will bee the odd buyer of course, but I can't see how this would get anything over £2m even if someone falls in love with it. Then again, I'm also stunned that it sold for as much as £1.2m in 2006.

Useful insight into the local market, Surbiton popped up on my radar about a year ago, some nice looking large-ish houses there which were around £600-700k, they just seemed to be sitting there for an age though and there doesn't seem much going on.

Out of interest and no doubt a pleasant turn from my usual MoM based commentary....(I can't recall if I asked before, sorry if I did !)

What do you consider some interesting places in Kingston for a) easy/quick commute into London b) leafy roads but with quick/easy access to fun and a nice high street, all for a modest budget of £750k +- 15% for a 130/140sqm plus 3/4 detached house with garden/garage e.t.c or a decent sized (85+ sqm) flat with a garden probably up to about £520k +- 15%.

Richmond is clearly too expensive, Teddington/Strawberry Hill all look lovely but out of my budget. Some of the examples like the Kenley house are clearly lovely but not going to be in my reach in the time period/areas I am likely interested in.

[p1stonhead]

V6Alfisti said:

kingston12 said:

2015 was about the peak of the silliness in this area, but £2.8m was really silly money for that house even then.

There are a very limited number of people with that much money to spend around Surbiton. It seems that you can easily sell a dilapidated 1,200 sqft semi for £1m and there will probably be a queue. Unfortunately for these sellers, having a house three times the size does not mean they will get anything like three times the money.

There will bee the odd buyer of course, but I can't see how this would get anything over £2m even if someone falls in love with it. Then again, I'm also stunned that it sold for as much as £1.2m in 2006.

Useful insight into the local market, Surbiton popped up on my radar about a year ago, some nice looking large-ish houses there which were around £600-700k, they just seemed to be sitting there for an age though and there doesn't seem much going on.

Out of interest and no doubt a pleasant turn from my usual MoM based commentary....(I can't recall if I asked before, sorry if I did !)

What do you consider some interesting places in Kingston for a) easy/quick commute into London b) leafy roads but with quick/easy access to fun and a nice high street, all for a modest budget of £750k +- 15% for a 130/140sqm plus 3/4 detached house with garden/garage e.t.c or a decent sized (85+ sqm) flat with a garden probably up to about £520k +- 15%.

Richmond is clearly too expensive, Teddington/Strawberry Hill all look lovely but out of my budget. Some of the examples like the Kenley house are clearly lovely but not going to be in my reach in the time period/areas I am likely interested in.

I doubt they did to be honest unless they were more Tolworth / Berrylands. The area is VERY specific in pricing when it comes to different areas or even different roads.

Regarding where to look these days for your criteria - some of the lesser parts of New Malden, then into Worcester Park. £750k for 3 bed detached wont get you into Kingston these days.

My mum sold her 4 bed semi (2250sqft) in Worcester Park 18 months ago for £850k.

Edited by p1stonhead on Monday 18th June 16:57

[Otispunkmeyer]

House prices are going up here.

I don't really know why, but our neighbor passed away a few months back and they've just sold his house. Bit of a special house, built in the 60's by builders of the name Jonmill, its a little bit mid-century modern with its asymmetrical roof and large glass ware. There are 3 such houses and we live in one on the end, his was in the middle. They're very different to the usual 2 up 2 down boxes that inhabit the rest of the estate.

It was sold, in less than 1 day and for 5 k over asking.

Old couple who live over the road in aforementioned 2 up 2 down box, are moving to be nearer grand kids. House sold the same day it went up for £10k over. A friend of my other half, have a nice big 5 bedroom house in a newer estate. They're off back to London, house sold in a week for asking price.

The thing about the first house is, the buyers were happy to pay the original asking price. Then the price was shifted up by 5k as the daughter of our neighbor panicked about selling too cheaply. Buyers happily paid it. The old couple across the street, I think someone just straight offered 10k over. Presumably in the hope they'd accept right away to avoid a bidding war.

They've built 4 new estates in the 4 years we've been in this village. Its now getting on for a town really. Currently building a 5th with some 400 homes. So far all houses built have simply "flown of the shelves". And that is from the upmarket builds (think they were £400k starting) to the cheaper end (high 100's).

Don't know who is buying them all. But they're buying them.

My OH gets excited because we did pay well under the going rate for ours at the time and it seems the going rate has only gone significantly up. However, she forgets that unless you're actually moving house, the value matters not a jot!

Edited by Otispunkmeyer on Monday 18th June 17:10

[V6Alfisti]

p1stonhead said:

I doubt they did to be honest unless they were more Tolworth / Berrylands. The area is VERY specific in pricing when it comes to different areas or even different roads.

Regarding where to look these days for your criteria - some of the lesser parts of New Malden, then into Worcester Park. £750k for 3 bed detached wont get you into Kingston these days.

My mum sold her 4 bed semi (2250sqft) in Worcester Park 18 months ago for £850k.

Edited by p1stonhead on Monday 18th June 16:57

You are right, it was Hersham ! Brain mix.

Lucky it is falling then isn't it

However back to subject, a 5 min scan brings up stuff like this :

That's all Kingston/Richmond with some compromises

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/53650284 124sqm house in Strawberry Hill for £800k - not a detached but a semi
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/72927470 84sqm flat in St Margarets for £580k - no garden
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/64696327 105sqm flat in Teddington for £575k - no garden

I drove through Worcester/Raynes Park not that long ago, it wasn't very nice from what I recall and was just a mass of non-descript housing (from what I could see, no doubt nicer parts?)

2250ft is considerably more than I need (currently/immediate future)

Edited by V6Alfisti on Monday 18th June 17:23

[kingston12]

V6Alfisti said:

Useful insight into the local market, Surbiton popped up on my radar about a year ago, some nice looking large-ish houses there which were around £600-700k, they just seemed to be sitting there for an age though and there doesn't seem much going on.

There were a few really nice houses that came on in Ewell Road a year or so back. The problem was that is the main A road down to Tolworth and it is rammed all day. Additionally, there is a council estate right behind them. They still looked quite cheap for the area, and I think they all sold eventually.

V6Alfisti said:

Out of interest and no doubt a pleasant turn from my usual MoM based commentary....(I can't recall if I asked before, sorry if I did !)

What do you consider some interesting places in Kingston for a) easy/quick commute into London b) leafy roads but with quick/easy access to fun and a nice high street, all for a modest budget of £750k +- 15% for a 130/140sqm plus 3/4 detached house with garden/garage e.t.c or a decent sized (85+ sqm) flat with a garden probably up to about £520k +- 15%.

Richmond is clearly too expensive, Teddington/Strawberry Hill all look lovely but out of my budget. Some of the examples like the Kenley house are clearly lovely but not going to be in my reach in the time period/areas I am likely interested in.

There is very little around Kingston that is going to fit the bill unless prices continue to fall. Kingston itself is obviously a huge town centre, but doesn't really have a local feel as a result. The town centre is a bit of a mess, and very busy, so it pays to be a little distance outside of it. A lot of the residential roads (especially to the north) are quite nicely preserved, walking distance to the river and station, and a few quite good pubs dotted about.

Downside is that trains are infrequent and take half an hour into London and £750k would only buy a 100sqm terraced house. Garages are rare apart from in blocks attached to blocks of flats or attached to much larger houses.

Surbiton is the opposite in many ways. It has a very small town centre, that could be ok with a bit of investment but is currently very tired. It has the essentials, though, and there are some nice areas directly surrounding it and some good bars, restaurants and pubs within a few minutes walk.

Trains are fast and frequent, but you are 100% reliant on SWR. Price is the problem. Houses of the size you are after are normally well in excess of £1m and not many have garages. A flat with a garden for £520k should be achievable but they don't come up often.

There is definitely a supply/demand problem here. No one seems to want the hundreds of bog standard flats that are always available, but as soon as a house becomes available in the right road, a ridiculous amount of money comes out.

Berrylands is a fair bit cheaper, and you'd definitely pick up a 130sqm house with a garage for £750k around there, but it is ultra-suburban and there isn't much there other than housing.

As mentioned above, Worcester Park and New Malden are a bit cheaper (and in zone 4 if that makes a difference), but I don't know them so will leave it to someone else to comment.

[V6Alfisti]

kingston12 said:

There is very little around Kingston that is going to fit the bill unless prices continue to fall. Kingston itself is obviously a huge town centre, but doesn't really have a local feel as a result. The town centre is a bit of a mess, and very busy, so it pays to be a little distance outside of it. A lot of the residential roads (especially to the north) are quite nicely preserved, walking distance to the river and station, and a few quite good pubs dotted about.

Downside is that trains are infrequent and take half an hour into London and £750k would only buy a 100sqm terraced house. Garages are rare apart from in blocks attached to blocks of flats or attached to much larger houses.

Surbiton is the opposite in many ways. It has a very small town centre, that could be ok with a bit of investment but is currently very tired. It has the essentials, though, and there are some nice areas directly surrounding it and some good bars, restaurants and pubs within a few minutes walk.

Trains are fast and frequent, but you are 100% reliant on SWR. Price is the problem. Houses of the size you are after are normally well in excess of £1m and not many have garages. A flat with a garden for £520k should be achievable but they don't come up often.

There is definitely a supply/demand problem here. No one seems to want the hundreds of bog standard flats that are always available, but as soon as a house becomes available in the right road, a ridiculous amount of money comes out.

Berrylands is a fair bit cheaper, and you'd definitely pick up a 130sqm house with a garage for £750k around there, but it is ultra-suburban and there isn't much there other than housing.

As mentioned above, Worcester Park and New Malden are a bit cheaper (and in zone 4 if that makes a difference), but I don't know them so will leave it to someone else to comment.

Thanks, would that position be the same if budget was nearer £850k as could likely do +15% i.e 900k, it sounds like somewere between a terraced and detached property - a bit like the Strawberry Hill example @ £800k today. I posted a few examples on a post just before this one, but like you wisely say I am edging towards there being further drops (no surprise there!)

I am not sure what your eyes on the ground are saying, but a quick scan of sold prices show quite a few teddington flats/houses for example are back to 2014/2015 or a few % off. That even surprised me!

[ou sont les biscuits]

V6Alfisti said:

You are right, it was Hersham ! Brain mix.

Lucky it is falling then isn't it

However back to subject, a 5 min scan brings up stuff like this :

That's all Kingston/Richmond with some compromises

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/53650284 124sqm house in Strawberry Hill for £800k - not a detached but a semi
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/72927470 84sqm flat in St Margarets for £580k - no garden
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/64696327 105sqm flat in Teddington for £575k - no garden

I drove through Worcester/Raynes Park not that long ago, it wasn't very nice from what I recall and was just a mass of non-descript housing (from what I could see, no doubt nicer parts?)

2250ft is considerably more than I need (currently/immediate future)

Edited by V6Alfisti on Monday 18th June 17:23

Can't say anything about St Margarets, but the other two I can comment on. We lived down on Broom Road (Teddington) until about six months ago.

The flat on Kingston Road. No way I'd live there. It's a main road with lots of traffic which quite often backs up to about where that flat is, especially on Thursday nights and Saturdays. Parking will be a nightmare, because the start of the controlled zone is just down the road towards Kingston. The only saving grace is that it's a stones throw from a decent pub in Wick Road. It's walking distance to both Kingston town centre and the centre of Teddington.

The house? Looks OK to me. It's a bit out of the way, and the only viable station is Strawberry Hill, which is the station on that line (runs in a circle from Waterloo back to Waterloo) with the longest commute beacause it's pretty much halfway round. You can walk to either Teddington town centre or Twickenham, both of which have some decent bars and restaurants. Garages are not all that common in that part of the world, so that's a bonus. I always liked those houses, and we did look at a few of them before we eventually bought where we did. But that was back in 1997!