How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Otispunkmeyer said:
House prices are going up here.
I don't really know why, but our neighbor passed away a few months back and they've just sold his house. Bit of a special house, built in the 60's by builders of the name Jonmill, its a little bit mid-century modern with its asymmetrical roof and large glass ware. There are 3 such houses and we live in one on the end, his was in the middle. They're very different to the usual 2 up 2 down boxes that inhabit the rest of the estate.
It was sold, in less than 1 day and for 5 k over asking.
Old couple who live over the road in aforementioned 2 up 2 down box, are moving to be nearer grand kids. House sold the same day it went up for £10k over. A friend of my other half, have a nice big 5 bedroom house in a newer estate. They're off back to London, house sold in a week for asking price.
The thing about the first house is, the buyers were happy to pay the original asking price. Then the price was shifted up by 5k as the daughter of our neighbor panicked about selling too cheaply. Buyers happily paid it. The old couple across the street, I think someone just straight offered 10k over. Presumably in the hope they'd accept right away to avoid a bidding war.
They've built 4 new estates in the 4 years we've been in this village. Its now getting on for a town really. Currently building a 5th with some 400 homes. So far all houses built have simply "flown of the shelves". And that is from the upmarket builds (think they were £400k starting) to the cheaper end (high 100's).
Don't know who is buying them all. But they're buying them.
My OH gets excited because we did pay well under the going rate for ours at the time and it seems the going rate has only gone significantly up. However, she forgets that unless you're actually moving house, the value matters not a jot!
Where are you? Whilst London is suffering, you guys elsewhere may well be OK at the moment?I don't really know why, but our neighbor passed away a few months back and they've just sold his house. Bit of a special house, built in the 60's by builders of the name Jonmill, its a little bit mid-century modern with its asymmetrical roof and large glass ware. There are 3 such houses and we live in one on the end, his was in the middle. They're very different to the usual 2 up 2 down boxes that inhabit the rest of the estate.
It was sold, in less than 1 day and for 5 k over asking.
Old couple who live over the road in aforementioned 2 up 2 down box, are moving to be nearer grand kids. House sold the same day it went up for £10k over. A friend of my other half, have a nice big 5 bedroom house in a newer estate. They're off back to London, house sold in a week for asking price.
The thing about the first house is, the buyers were happy to pay the original asking price. Then the price was shifted up by 5k as the daughter of our neighbor panicked about selling too cheaply. Buyers happily paid it. The old couple across the street, I think someone just straight offered 10k over. Presumably in the hope they'd accept right away to avoid a bidding war.
They've built 4 new estates in the 4 years we've been in this village. Its now getting on for a town really. Currently building a 5th with some 400 homes. So far all houses built have simply "flown of the shelves". And that is from the upmarket builds (think they were £400k starting) to the cheaper end (high 100's).
Don't know who is buying them all. But they're buying them.
My OH gets excited because we did pay well under the going rate for ours at the time and it seems the going rate has only gone significantly up. However, she forgets that unless you're actually moving house, the value matters not a jot!
Edited by Otispunkmeyer on Monday 18th June 17:10
I can confirm it is generally “tougher” these last few months than for some time in the five boroughs at the extreme bottom of that map.
Fewer listings, enquiries, proceedable applicants, motivations generally low so a mismatch between buyers and sellers more stark than for a while. Interesting times.
Moving on from central Kingston flat development madness ‘’twas mentioned a few pages back about major projects in Sutton. They follow other major releases in the centre in recent years. It will be interesting to see how well those releases go over the next 12 months and the values placed on the other recently built “premium” flats as they naturally start to trickle back onto the open market. They can’t all be sold at relatively high prices only to be let to recent arrivals, can they?
Fewer listings, enquiries, proceedable applicants, motivations generally low so a mismatch between buyers and sellers more stark than for a while. Interesting times.
Moving on from central Kingston flat development madness ‘’twas mentioned a few pages back about major projects in Sutton. They follow other major releases in the centre in recent years. It will be interesting to see how well those releases go over the next 12 months and the values placed on the other recently built “premium” flats as they naturally start to trickle back onto the open market. They can’t all be sold at relatively high prices only to be let to recent arrivals, can they?
p1stonhead said:
Surprisingly lots of areas with fairly large increases there.
Perhaps the new builds have indeed skewed results in those boroughs. I should be doing actual work so haven’t read the report yet. As we know a stat by borough doesn’t always give a very rounded figure. Besides, the numbers seem all over the place this year. Up big, down big...Edit - thought the stats were MoM not YoY.
Edited by scenario8 on Tuesday 19th June 12:34
Harry Flashman said:
Where are you? Whilst London is suffering, you guys elsewhere may well be OK at the moment?
I know its unfashionable on this thread to talk outside of the City, but my observations fall in line with the rightmove report that was linked on here yesterday. London seems to be struggling/flatlining/falling in parts, the Home Counties stalling and the rest of the South seeing little rises aside from odd pockets. Midlands and the North seems to be business as normal. I am Leeds based and property here seems to be climbing value wise still, although if one were to look at the 2005(ish) - 2018 overall rise its well behind the UK pattern. I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
johnfm said:
My favourite house seller site...sod Zoopla & Rightmove...
https://www.themodernhouse.com/sales-list/
They do get on some nice places, all of a similar shabby chic style from my browsing. Though when they're trying to charge 600k for an art deco inspired council flat in Sydenham I do think to myself what utter garbage they must come out with when they go to valuations. https://www.themodernhouse.com/sales-list/
Shnozz said:
I know its unfashionable on this thread to talk outside of the City, but my observations fall in line with the rightmove report that was linked on here yesterday. London seems to be struggling/flatlining/falling in parts, the Home Counties stalling and the rest of the South seeing little rises aside from odd pockets. Midlands and the North seems to be business as normal. I am Leeds based and property here seems to be climbing value wise still, although if one were to look at the 2005(ish) - 2018 overall rise its well behind the UK pattern.
I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
Please don’t mistake non-London chat being uncommon with being unwelcome. Interesting to hear Leeds is enjoying good times. My last exposure to the market up there was to a huge boom in the construction of city centre flats followed by an inevitable recession...I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
scenario8 said:
Shnozz said:
I know its unfashionable on this thread to talk outside of the City, but my observations fall in line with the rightmove report that was linked on here yesterday. London seems to be struggling/flatlining/falling in parts, the Home Counties stalling and the rest of the South seeing little rises aside from odd pockets. Midlands and the North seems to be business as normal. I am Leeds based and property here seems to be climbing value wise still, although if one were to look at the 2005(ish) - 2018 overall rise its well behind the UK pattern.
I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
Please don’t mistake non-London chat being uncommon with being unwelcome. Interesting to hear Leeds is enjoying good times. My last exposure to the market up there was to a huge boom in the construction of city centre flats followed by an inevitable recession...I've just sold a house in the Midlands and that had a lot of interest and sold at asking in days.
At which point my London house will be worth 50p, so I'll be stuck here forever. Hmph.
p1stonhead said:
Surprisingly lots of areas with fairly large increases there.
Which picture are you looking at? It has looked like that for at least a year and maintains the majority of north/west/east London are getting battered, whilst the east is fairing better.In acadata's own words "Overall, 24 London boroughs have seen prices fall over the year, and just nine have seen them rise: four in the top third of the market; four in the bottom third; and just one in the mid-priced boroughs".
The average of the drops is near 6% with most rises being in the 1-2% range in the year with a couple of clear hitters such as Kensington, Lambeth and Harringay that are up between 5-10%, probably driven by new builds in the latter two and a couple of extra high value sales in Kens. Put that in context inflation from 2016 to 2017 was 3.6%.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 19th June 12:28
Otispunkmeyer said:
They've built 4 new estates in the 4 years we've been in this village. Its now getting on for a town really. Currently building a 5th with some 400 homes. So far all houses built have simply "flown of the shelves". And that is from the upmarket builds (think they were £400k starting) to the cheaper end (high 100's).
Don't know who is buying them all. But they're buying them.
My OH gets excited because we did pay well under the going rate for ours at the time and it seems the going rate has only gone significantly up. However, she forgets that unless you're actually moving house, the value matters not a jot!
Where new estates have been dropped onto villages around us in West Cheshire it's completely messed access to the already popular local schools. It's been an issue for years that success at getting into infant school alternates each year - one year it's siblings only and the next year they're short of kids. Now the same is happening at senior school level - the school our village has always fed to is full, and so are the three other good schools within reach.Don't know who is buying them all. But they're buying them.
My OH gets excited because we did pay well under the going rate for ours at the time and it seems the going rate has only gone significantly up. However, she forgets that unless you're actually moving house, the value matters not a jot!
We part own another house in our village and I wanted to get one of my daughters into it - she's said no way, due to the school uncertainty for her kids. If other people are aware of it, then that's got to have an effect on house prices.
Edited by Sheepshanks on Tuesday 19th June 13:54
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I moved from central London to Tunbridge Wells and then further out. The quality of life and houses is very good, but the M25 has to be faced if you want to go elsewhere in England!
My commute from deepest darkest Kent is about 1:15, which is fine for me, as I generally only travel in a couple of times a week and even then mostly out of rush hour.
What this means is that, if you are close to Sevenoaks, you get the Alpha couple shiny types, whilst if you go further out, it is more business owners and senior management, or second time around families.
For £1.5m near me, you would get an epic house with large grounds, not a 0.7acre McMansion.
If it helps, I grew up near Cobham, so I do understand your market, too.
V6Alfisti said:
p1stonhead said:
Surprisingly lots of areas with fairly large increases there.
Which picture are you looking at? In acadata's own words "Overall, 24 London boroughs have seen prices fall over the year, and just nine have seen them rise: four in the top third of the market; four in the bottom third; and just one in the mid-priced boroughs"
Then of the limited ones that have risen they are mostly up about 1.x % in the year with a couple of clear hitters such as Kensington, Lambeth and Harringay that are up between 5-10%, probably driven by new builds in the latter two.
That is anything but "lots of areas" imo, and still maintains the majority of north/west/east London are getting battered, whilst the east is fairing better.
p1stonhead said:
9 boroughs out of 30 rising was my 'a lot'. The picture you posted and 'a lot' was in the context of expecting none.
Got it, the 9 of 33 with the majority in the east/cheaper areas. It has been like that for a while as the east has remained more resilient probably because the values are lower to start with, the majority of those limited rises are in the 1-2% range and are still about 2% below inflation over the year. Hence my surprise in the statement.V6Alfisti said:
Got it, the 9 of 33 with the majority in the east/cheaper areas. It has been like that for a while as the east has remained more resilient probably because the values are lower to start with, the majority of those limited rises are in the 1-2% range and are still about 2% below inflation over the year. Hence my surprise in the statement.
The last UK CPI print was 2.3% (May), it was 2.2% in April.If you are going to present speculation as fact at least make reference to ranges that are broadly correct. :-)
Another summary, could easily read; London property continues to remain broadly flat with subdued sales and specific areas of weakness and pockets of distressed sales. However the market remains as specialised in location and property as ever with some areas of large rises. Once could broadly say a third of boroughs were flat, a third rose, a third dropped.
gibbon said:
The last UK CPI print was 2.3% (May), it was 2.2% in April.
If you are going to present speculation as fact at least make reference to ranges that are broadly correct. :-)
Another summary, could easily read; London property continues to remain broadly flat with subdued sales and specific areas of weakness and pockets of distressed sales. However the market remains as specialised in location and property as ever with some areas of large rises. Once could broadly say a third of boroughs were flat, a third rose, a third dropped.
The inflation figure came from the Bank of England with the available data set here https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/in... There is a 1% difference, as that data set runs to 2017, the overall point that inflation is still higher than the average of the gains remains i.e in real terms many of those are losses as well.If you are going to present speculation as fact at least make reference to ranges that are broadly correct. :-)
Another summary, could easily read; London property continues to remain broadly flat with subdued sales and specific areas of weakness and pockets of distressed sales. However the market remains as specialised in location and property as ever with some areas of large rises. Once could broadly say a third of boroughs were flat, a third rose, a third dropped.
That is another summary but it really depends on how misrepresentative of the overriding behaviour you want to represent. Your definition of "broadly flat" and "specific areas of weakness" relate to data that shows:
"The specific areas of weakness" relate to Three quarters of the areas are losses in the year
The top 10 district 'losers' relate to an average of -11% in one year
24 of 33 districts are showing an annual loss that averages out at -5.7% in one year. Yes of course the percentages vary by district and within submarkets/streets within that - this has been mentioned many times before.
We can let people make their own call on what is correct, but my opinion as as observer would no doubt change if I was looking to buy in the west vs the east. However this does rather strike of sugar coating some very clear figures, and a bit like some of the press that report "lower growth" when in fact it is clearly a nationwide fall i.e negative. Completely misleading tripe basically.
Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 19th June 14:21
V6Alfisti said:
gibbon said:
The last UK CPI print was 2.3% (May), it was 2.2% in April.
If you are going to present speculation as fact at least make reference to ranges that are broadly correct. :-)
Another summary, could easily read; London property continues to remain broadly flat with subdued sales and specific areas of weakness and pockets of distressed sales. However the market remains as specialised in location and property as ever with some areas of large rises. Once could broadly say a third of boroughs were flat, a third rose, a third dropped.
The inflation figure came from the Bank of England with the available data set here https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/in... There is a 1% difference, as that data set runs to 2017, the overall point that inflation is still higher than the average of the gains remains i.e in real terms many of those are losses as well.If you are going to present speculation as fact at least make reference to ranges that are broadly correct. :-)
Another summary, could easily read; London property continues to remain broadly flat with subdued sales and specific areas of weakness and pockets of distressed sales. However the market remains as specialised in location and property as ever with some areas of large rises. Once could broadly say a third of boroughs were flat, a third rose, a third dropped.
That is another summary but it really depends on how misrepresentative of the overriding behaviour you want to represent. Your definition of "broadly flat" and "specific areas of weakness" relate to data that shows:
"The specific areas of weakness" relate to Three quarters of the areas are losses in the year
The top 10 district 'losers' relate to an average of -11% in one year
24 of 33 districts are showing an annual loss that averages out at -5.7% in one year. Yes of course the percentages vary by district and within submarkets/streets within that - this has been mentioned many times before.
We can let people make their own call on what is correct, but my opinion as as observer would no doubt change if I was looking to buy in the west vs the east.
p1stonhead said:
5.7% means another decade of the same to get back to only say 2014 levels?
I will play this seriously rather than skeptically just in case....That value is just in the last year, as has been proven/shared a number of times in this thread...quite a number of areas/streets have already sold in 2018 at their 2014/15 sale values (actual sold/done deals). Covering areas like Kensington, Maida, Richmond Upon Thames, Hampsted e.t.c
There are of course areas/streets that aren't selling at their 2014 values, but this come back to the whole to/from that has been had on here.
Also the 2014 average London value was not anything like 43% of today's value, you would have to back to pre 2004/2005 for that !
Edited by V6Alfisti on Tuesday 19th June 14:40
scenario8 said:
Please don’t mistake non-London chat being uncommon with being unwelcome. Interesting to hear Leeds is enjoying good times. My last exposure to the market up there was to a huge boom in the construction of city centre flats followed by an inevitable recession...
Indeed. If you are a long term owner then I am not sure it amounts to "good times" insofar as levels still seem down on that huge boom peak that was the precursor to the crash that followed. I was still based in the South at that point and arrived a few years post-crash but judging by land registry prices it looks as though values are only now reaching those heights of 2005 (ish) when the city centre was being revamped with countless blocks being sold both to locals and to investors from elsewhere buying the tranches of apartments ready to make their millions..In many years post 2008 it seemed whilst the rest of the UK started to pick up again nicely, Leeds didn't and the oversupply was apparent in prices remaining on the floor and the disparity was quite apparent with other UK cities. Only in very recent times (last 2 years I would say) has there been a distinct rise bringing property back up.
My Midlands house that has sold recently stayed fairly flat from 2007 until about 3 years ago when it has risen by about 25% in that period.
kingston12 said:
okgo said:
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...
I posted this earlier in the thread, maybe last year, they were asking 3 million then, it was quite quirky in how it was done inside, lovely, but quite niche. I noticed they have had painters in there for a long time, clearly blank canvassing it and lopping off half a million to boot...Stupid house though, nobody ever going to spend that to live on a road of flat blocks, should have converted it into 4 flats
Yep, wrong area for that type of house. People with £2.5m to spend are more likely to want that house recently posted on the thread in Weybridge or something closer into town. If they are going to spend that type of money in Surbiton, it would be on a big place on the Southborough estate which is much less spoilt.I posted this earlier in the thread, maybe last year, they were asking 3 million then, it was quite quirky in how it was done inside, lovely, but quite niche. I noticed they have had painters in there for a long time, clearly blank canvassing it and lopping off half a million to boot...Stupid house though, nobody ever going to spend that to live on a road of flat blocks, should have converted it into 4 flats
If Oakhill had been left alone, it would be quite different. I have lived in Surbiton for years and I have only walked through that area once. It's very quiet and secluded (no reason to go there unless you live there), but within steps of the fast connection to London. If it was still packed with the original houses, it could have become quite an enclave.
No chance of that now and unless they can squeeze five flats out of this one they have got very little chance of getting £2.5m in total.
The house looks quite good in itself and is still mainly surrounded by other similar ones (all converted into flats but at least keeping the look of the original houses). The rest is just complete vandalism - there must have been even more fraud and dirty deeds amongst developers and councillors to get that lot through back in the 60s/70s than there is now.
The worst thing is that it has set the precedent for today's developments. There is a massive mansion at the end of that road which is totally derelict, no doubt waiting while some greedy developer seeks planning approval the most overly dense replacement possible.
The remaining houses up there are even better/grander than I remember, but the level of destruction is much worse.
The irony is that one of the concrete 70's blocks is named for the original developer of Surbiton as a new town in the mid-1800s. It must have been fantastic then, god knows what he would think if he saw it now.
mike74 said:
DurianIceCream said:
Also, I own a BTL but the above would be the primary home. If I own a BTL and sell my primary home to buy another primary home, do I have to pay the stamp duty surcharge?
Good to see yet another highly competent and well informed LL who is fully conversant with their legal and financial obligations and doesn't have to rely on asking strangers on the internet even the most basic of queries.
ttery despite some significant differences in budget so it would be nice to keep it that way. Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff