How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
Lots of countries similar to ours (ie English speaking and decent laws) such as Austrilaia, New Zealand, Canada etc.... have recently put massive restrictions on foreigners buying real estate in a bid to curb rampant rises and protect the indigenous.
When (not so much if after this week) the Labour government get in then they will do the same, coupled with Brexit and the Tory crushing of BTL (S24) I can't see prices going anywhere but down in the future.
When (not so much if after this week) the Labour government get in then they will do the same, coupled with Brexit and the Tory crushing of BTL (S24) I can't see prices going anywhere but down in the future.
untakenname said:
Lots of countries similar to ours (ie English speaking and decent laws) such as Austrilaia, New Zealand, Canada etc.... have recently put massive restrictions on foreigners buying real estate in a bid to curb rampant rises and protect the indigenous.
When (not so much if after this week) the Labour government get in then they will do the same, coupled with Brexit and the Tory crushing of BTL (S24) I can't see prices going anywhere but down in the future.
Canada and Australia are resource rich countries though (ignoring NZ as only ten people ot something live there and way down GDP rankings, always confused as to why they get so much media attention When (not so much if after this week) the Labour government get in then they will do the same, coupled with Brexit and the Tory crushing of BTL (S24) I can't see prices going anywhere but down in the future.
) the UK needs inward cash as our economy is more Ponzi based.Even if Corbyn gets in, only so much he can borrow without getting money in. His policies (as published) are more about letting councils borrow to build, ending right to buy and more renter rights as opposed to extreme left.
Edited by hyphen on Tuesday 17th July 23:47
hyphen said:
Canada and Australia are resource rich countries though (ignoring NZ as only ten people ot something live there and way down GDP rankings, always confused as to why they get so much media attention ) the UK needs inward cash as our economy is more Ponzi based.
Hence it is unsustainable, and will inevitably crash like a house of cards.) the UK needs inward cash as our economy is more Ponzi based.Can't believe so many are blinkered to this!
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Hate to correct you but this isn't right. https://www.londoncouncils.gov.uk/node/1938
Inner London wage is £28,660
Outer London wage is £22,917
My wife says the teachers in her school are on around £25,000-£28,000 which would align with whats in this guide here:
https://getintoteaching.education.gov.uk/funding-a...
This was the point of my post though. Not all of us are 'professionals' with large salary prospects. I'm just wondering how the average household would fair trying to purchase a place these days. I knew we'd always be on the back foot as the wife picked her career and I wouldn't want to make her change it but it does seem like we're always going to be a step behind due to her salary constraints.
We're already in Zone 5 so Outer London pay bands, the wife is a HLTA, (not a teacher) and is close to being at the very top end limit of her band and she gets more pay on top of her banding for being restraint trained, first aid trained with fire marshal responsibilities plus she's been sent on and passed a bunch of other courses that add a little bit of money each month.
If she moved from an Outer London school to a Surrey school her pay would reduce purely because of the band difference. Property isn't that much cheaper plus the transport is more expensive so it would most likely be a bad decision.
Also to everyone who's said 'just save more' we had planned to save 15% of a £300,000 (£45,000) property. The same properties now are £350,000+ so we need at least £52,500 to be at 15%. We've only just got £30k together. We literally cannot save fast enough to even keep up with prices.
Edited by ashleyman on Wednesday 18th July 00:39
ashleyman said:
Lots of stuff
I've just done a brief RM search. Seems plenty of 2 bed properties within 5 miles in the mid 200s which don't all look like ghettos, including in Sutton 
This is a bit further out but looks nice, for example
ie http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/55077933
snake_oil said:
ashleyman said:
Lots of stuff
I've just done a brief RM search. Seems plenty of 2 bed properties within 5 miles in the mid 200s which don't all look like ghettos, including in Sutton This is a bit further out but looks nice, for example
ie http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/55077933
tannhauser said:
hyphen said:
Canada and Australia are resource rich countries though (ignoring NZ as only ten people ot something live there and way down GDP rankings, always confused as to why they get so much media attention ) the UK needs inward cash as our economy is more Ponzi based.
Hence it is unsustainable, and will inevitably crash like a house of cards.) the UK needs inward cash as our economy is more Ponzi based.Can't believe so many are blinkered to this!
If you were a betting man, you would have lost your shirt in the last decade with that belief.
I don’t disagree that it’s unsustainable, but to say it will come crashing down is not evident in anything that has happened in the last ten years.
tannhauser said:
When will people get it into their thick heads, that the interest rates of today are phenomenally low and are unusually so?!
Given that you can fix them for five years it is not a massive problem for a while, and we are not looking at rates being much higher in five years either, so you can still hedge the changes out at a decent rate.Most people can expect to have built up some extra equity in five years time, and to have advanced a bit in their career, so it is not really a huge gamble to stretch a bit when you are young.
tannhauser said:
Hence it is unsustainable, and will inevitably crash like a house of cards.
Can't believe so many are blinkered to this!
When?Can't believe so many are blinkered to this!
And why do you think that you know better than most? Do you actually work in this area or do you just think that you are cleverer than anyone else?
James_B said:
tannhauser said:
Hence it is unsustainable, and will inevitably crash like a house of cards.
Can't believe so many are blinkered to this!
When?Can't believe so many are blinkered to this!
And why do you think that you know better than most? Do you actually work in this area or do you just think that you are cleverer than anyone else?
p1stonhead said:
snake_oil said:
ashleyman said:
Lots of stuff
I've just done a brief RM search. Seems plenty of 2 bed properties within 5 miles in the mid 200s which don't all look like ghettos, including in Sutton This is a bit further out but looks nice, for example
ie http://www.rightmove.co.uk/s6p/55077933
That said, there's plenty near Sutton station too.
tannhauser said:
When will people get it into their thick heads, that the interest rates of today are phenomenally low and are unusually so?!
Gosh your angry.What would you call a usual interest rate, and when do you expect that to return?
Almost a decade of super low rates means it is normal to most people i'm afraid.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
And if you're good and plan your career smartly that can rise rapidly. My niece is 31 and is the head teacher of a single form entry primary school in rural East Anglia earning £70k. I would imagine there won't be many solicitors and accountants of the same age in the area earning that muchtannhauser said:
When will people get it into their thick heads, that the interest rates of today are phenomenally low and are unusually so?!
Why would you expect them to? The base rate has been low for ten years now and that is as long as a lot of today's younger buyers remember.The current market has been built on low rates, but has gone a lot further - longer term loans, 5x joint income loans, Help to Buy, parental support becoming more the norm etc.
There has been no 'crash' in prices for a decade in the SE and the last really meaningful one was in the early 90s. The mentality that prices only ever go up in the short term as well as the long term will be extremely hard to break against that background. Even the lull in prices that has affected London for the last three years or so doesn't seem to have dampened the enthusiasm to 'get on the ladder'.
In my view. the BoE will do anything that they can to keep rates as low as possible for as possible, and high levels of household debt is one of the reasons for that.
I'm not saying that the market isn't broken, and prices would certainly look a lot different if we went back 20 years and mortgages were capped at 3x single income and cost 6% to service, but I just don't think we are going back there. I am just about old enough to remember the early 90s crash as well (even though I didn't own a house then). If I was younger, I'd be more confident still.
Edited by kingston12 on Wednesday 18th July 10:11
gibbon said:
tannhauser said:
When will people get it into their thick heads, that the interest rates of today are phenomenally low and are unusually so?!
Gosh your angry.What would you call a usual interest rate, and when do you expect that to return?
Almost a decade of super low rates means it is normal to most people i'm afraid.
Or he is young and didn’t take the risk in order to buy and has now missed out.
Can’t see any other reason he would be that annoyed about it.
ClaphamGT3 said:
And if you're good and plan your career smartly that can rise rapidly. My niece is 31 and is the head teacher of a single form entry primary school in rural East Anglia earning £70k. I would imagine there won't be many solicitors and accountants of the same age in the area earning that much
I'm sure she's not unique, but that's a very high salary for such a school (maybe it was failing and they were struggling to recruit?) and she's young to be in such a position. A colleague's wife is head of a well dodgy (they have to have security at parents evenings type of place) primary in the SE and she earns £65K, they hadn't had a head for a year and had to beg her to take the job (she was deputy head).One of my daughters is a Director of Sixth Form so effectively runs a school 50% bigger than a single entry primary and she earns £49K, and even that is more than it should be, but she was maxxed out at senior teacher level + TLR points and taking the job at its offered point on the leadership scale would have meant a drop in pay, so they bumped it up a bit. She said the overall head of the school (1800 pupils) earns £85K.
ETA: This popped up with a quick Google - a similar sized school, in the area, in special measures (that means the previous head has been fired) and the salary still doesn't approach £70K: https://www.suffolkjobsdirect.org/teaching-primary...
Edited by Sheepshanks on Wednesday 18th July 11:07
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Again, in the thread about buying property, that's completely irrelevant - except that teachers are probably paying more in contributions into their pensions than most people in the private sector. So for the purposes of getting a mortgage, take their salary down, not up.Sheepshanks said:
I'm sure she's not unique, but that's a very high salary for such a school (maybe it was failing and they were struggling to recruit?) and she's young to be in such a position. A colleague's wife is head of a well dodgy (they have to have security at parents evenings type of place) primary in the SE and she earns £65K, they hadn't had a head for a year and had to beg her to take the job (she was deputy head).
One of my daughters is a Director of Sixth Form so effectively runs a school 50% bigger than a single entry primary and she earns £49K, and even that is more than it should be, but she was maxxed out at senior teacher level + TLR points and taking the job at its offered point on the leadership scale would have meant a drop in pay, so they bumped it up a bit. She said the overall head of the school (1800 pupils) earns £85K.
ETA: This popped up with a quick Google - a similar sized school, in the area, in special measures (that means the previous head has been fired) and the salary still doesn't approach £70K: https://www.suffolkjobsdirect.org/teaching-primary...
Interesting. That one looks like the pay point below Alice's as I seem to remember that, when she applied for her role, the pay range quoted was £63k - £80k. I'm surprised to be honest as the school you've linked to is bigger and has more challenges. That said, Suffolk have been talking about merging it with another primary in the area since I was a kid so maybe it's not going to be a long term head role.One of my daughters is a Director of Sixth Form so effectively runs a school 50% bigger than a single entry primary and she earns £49K, and even that is more than it should be, but she was maxxed out at senior teacher level + TLR points and taking the job at its offered point on the leadership scale would have meant a drop in pay, so they bumped it up a bit. She said the overall head of the school (1800 pupils) earns £85K.
ETA: This popped up with a quick Google - a similar sized school, in the area, in special measures (that means the previous head has been fired) and the salary still doesn't approach £70K: https://www.suffolkjobsdirect.org/teaching-primary...
Edited by Sheepshanks on Wednesday 18th July 11:07
As well as the school, she has a thriving children's centre which feeds the reception class and keeps their roll full. She was instrumental in getting that off the ground, so that adds to the scale of the role I guess.
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