North Korea - how serious should we take them?

[Likes Fast Cars]

skyrover said:

Interesting opinion from a semi official blog quoting the Chinese Global times, stating that China would not be averse to US air strikes against North Korea but would not permit South Korean or US troops over the demarcation line.

http://m.huanqiu.com/r/MV8wXzEwNTIwNzYxXzI4Ml8xNDk...

This is the closest thing we gave seen yet to an official Chinese acknowledgement of direct action against North Korea

they'll probably change their minds tomorrow....

[hidetheelephants]

scherzkeks said:

MartG said:

scherzkeks said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

scherzkeks said:

smifffymoto said:

North Korea has been left alone for too long and have developed with help from China and others.
How can it be that the world despises it as a state but turns a blind eye to them exporting government "employed" slaves to the likes of Dubai and Saudi Arabia for cheap labour on construction sites etc.
While governments and business make money from them on the one hand they want to limit them with the other.Politics now is full of to many people with a big ego and something to prove.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2017/04/17/the-problem-is-washington-not-north-korea/

An interesting read. The truth lies somewhere in between, IMO. No question Kim is potentially dangerous to the South, but he is also literally surrounded (and China also has interests in the South) and there would be no rational reason for him to strike. The idea that he would do it simply because he is crazy comes across more as a propaganda scare tactic than anything based in reality.

Well they make one incorrect statement in the first paragraph, the war has not entirely ended has it?Technically they are still at war as I've read elsewhere.

Fighting ended in 1953.

Fighting ended with an armistice agreement, but no peace treaty has ever been signed, so technically they are still at war

Yes, we are playing with language. The shooting war ended in 1953 with the intro. of the DMZ. The idea that they are "still at war" is simply convenient to the intentions of certain parties.

The idea that Kim is going to nuke the South without being provoked is not logical.

War has certain criteria; given NK's propensity to shoot RoK troops, shell their positions, sink their ships, engage in international piracy, foster war and unrest elsewhere by selling arms to scumbags, kidnap citizens of 3rd party nations and murder its own citizens in 3rd party countries, it's not outrageous to assume the NKs think they're still at war.

[shakotan]

Likes Fast Cars said:

scherzkeks said:

....

The idea that Kim is going to nuke the South without being provoked is not logical.

This is one of the challenges in trying to work out how to handle the situation isn't it? No-one is really sure what he will do, but from what I see he seems capable of just going in guns / weapons blazing because he seems to have a need to show his people and the rest of the world he's the boss /the big man.

From what I can gather North Korea just wants to be left alone, and any 'peacocking' they do is simply in retaliation from the West et al rattling their cage.

[Zod]

shakotan said:

From what I can gather North Korea just wants to be left alone, and any 'peacocking' they do is simply in retaliation from the West et al rattling their cage.

Oh and from where do you gather that? You should perhaps read about the Korean War and look at the country's "policy" towards South Korea.

[Cobnapint]

shakotan said:

From what I can gather North Korea just wants to be left alone, and any 'peacocking' they do is simply in retaliation from the West et al rattling their cage.

Left alone? To do what? Carry on brainwashing it's populace from school age that the US and Japan are sworn enemies and they must be prepared to go to war with them at any moment?

Carry on showing mock images of the Capitol building and US warships blowing up in a ball of fire?

It's NK that's doing all the cage rattling.

[Dr Doofenshmirtz]

Cobnapint said:

Left alone? To do what? Carry on brainwashing it's populace from school age that the US and Japan are sworn enemies and they must be prepared to go to war with them at any moment?

I think you'll find most countries, even the UK partake in brainwashing of schoolkids to a greater or lesser extent.
With NK it's all hail Kim, in most other countries it's an imaginary sky fairy who we should obey, otherwise bad stuff will surely happen on the day of rapture (or equivalent).
...At least Kim is living and real.

[Cobnapint]

Dr Doofenshmirtz said:

Cobnapint said:

Left alone? To do what? Carry on brainwashing it's populace from school age that the US and Japan are sworn enemies and they must be prepared to go to war with them at any moment?

I think you'll find most countries, even the UK partake in brainwashing of schoolkids to a greater or lesser extent.
With NK it's all hail Kim, in most other countries it's an imaginary sky fairy who we should obey, otherwise bad stuff will surely happen on the day of rapture (or equivalent).
...At least Kim is living and real.

There's a huge difference between teaching kids right from wrong and the antics the 'living and real' Kim gets up to.

[Atomic12C]

shakotan said:

From what I can gather North Korea just wants to be left alone, and any 'peacocking' they do is simply in retaliation from the West et al rattling their cage.

"Not the whole truth" many would say...

North Korea want there to be no division within what they see as their Korea.
From this comes their 'mission' to win back the south and reform Korea in to a single 'republic'.
And from this comes their statement of aggression against those that are preventing this from happening.
The main 'player' being the USA.

But it is also true to say that during the years, the amount of 'willy waving' that takes place in the region that is supposed to act as a message to say "don't try anything or else", has done nothing more than provoke each side in to escalating their intentions and to speed up the process of increasing military might.

So there are two sides to the story (sort of) with and apportion of blame to be divided among the 'players' as to the current situation.


What needs to happen before its too late is either both sides back down and a diplomatic solution is sorted to prevent N.Korea developing nuclear capability any further, and with that a removal of nuclear technology from within its borders...... or... the UN / NATO / USA needs to act aggressively to remove the regime.
Because if either of those are not done it is basically a ticking time bomb.... literally.
Meaning that I think the N.Korean regime are indeed crazy enough to launch a nuclear first strike as soon as they are capable.

[Cobnapint]

Cobnapint said:

gruffalo said:

China needs to put him back in his box and soon.

China won't lift a finger.

It'll have to be the US and others. If he's genuinely threatened Australia, then wtf...?

And there you have it. China has just said at the UN that the key to resolving the problem with North Korea DOES NOT lie with China.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Cobnapint said:

Cobnapint said:

gruffalo said:

China needs to put him back in his box and soon.

China won't lift a finger.

It'll have to be the US and others. If he's genuinely threatened Australia, then wtf...?

And there you have it. China has just said at the UN that the key to resolving the problem with North Korea DOES NOT lie with China.

I was watching some of the coverage of the UN today and a lot of it is all waffle..... I'm afraid that it'll end up with the ineffective UN as usual resolving nothing.

As mentioned Australia has been threatened - several times in the past 2 weeks.

[Driller]

My view is that if North Korea wants to have nuclear weapons, isn't it a bit hypocritical for a nuclear arms owning country to try to stop this?

Do we know that they want to actively target and start wars with any other countries? Where's the evidence for this and how many countries have they invaded and attacked recently compared with any others? (except obviously the Korean war which was a proxy war between cold war era states).

From what I can see, they just want to be left alone and will only attack to defend themselves if provoked, so we should just stop provoking them.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Driller said:

My view is that if North Korea wants to have nuclear weapons, isn't it a bit hypocritical for a nuclear arms owning country to try to stop this?

Do we know that they want to actively target and start wars with any other countries? Where's the evidence for this and how many countries have they invaded and attacked recently compared with any others? (except obviously the Korean war which was a proxy war between cold war era states).

From what I can see, they just want to be left alone and will only attack to defend themselves if provoked, so we should just stop provoking them.

In which case could one argue they don't need to develop weapons of the types they are developing / have?

After all no-one has attacked them, the only talk of attacks starts with NK itself and Fat Pie Boy's threats to all and sundry. It's as though he is trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy, isn't it?

[Driller]

No-one's attacked them but plenty of other countries have been attacked. It's not unreasonable for them to want to defend themselves.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Driller said:

No-one's attacked them but plenty of other countries have been attacked. It's not unreasonable for them to want to defend themselves.

They nothing of note worth attacking for, do they?

No oil
No vast natural resources (OK, some coal apparently)
...

Have I missed something?

[superkartracer]

Likes Fast Cars said:

They nothing of note worth attacking for, do they?

No oil
No vast natural resources (OK, some coal apparently)
...

Have I missed something?

They do have vast amounts of rare earth materials ( 2/3rds of the world apparently ) , some mega billions right there to be snatched .

[Likes Fast Cars]

superkartracer said:

Likes Fast Cars said:

They nothing of note worth attacking for, do they?

No oil
No vast natural resources (OK, some coal apparently)
...

Have I missed something?

They do have vast amounts of rare earth materials ( 2/3rds of the world apparently ) , some mega billions right there to be snatched .

That's it then I'm putting together a few mercenaries to go and oust Pie Boy

[AreOut]

Atomic12C said:

So.....
once THAAD is installed, is the US, south Korea and Japan ready to accept the risk and effectiveness of counter attack and collateral damage if NK is targeted?

what I find interesting is that Russia used SU24 shooting as an excuse to install S400 in Syria, maybe US just raised the tensions to have an excuse to install (another) THAAD near Russia... it's practically sitting some 300 miles from their border

[ninja-lewis]

AreOut said:

Atomic12C said:

So.....
once THAAD is installed, is the US, south Korea and Japan ready to accept the risk and effectiveness of counter attack and collateral damage if NK is targeted?

- i.e.
what I find interesting is that Russia used SU24 shooting as an excuse to install S400 in Syria, maybe US just raised the tensions to have an excuse to install (another) THAAD near Russia... it's practically sitting some 300 miles from their border

The T in the name refers to stopping short/intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase as they descend back towards a target near the THAAD launcher. So unless the Russians plan to attack Korea with SRBM/IRBMs, the deployment has no impact on them.

[Laurel Green]

North Korea has test-fired a ballistic missile, the South Korean military quoted by Yonhap news agency says. Clicky

[AreOut]

ninja-lewis said:

The T in the name refers to stopping short/intermediate range ballistic missiles in their terminal phase as they descend back towards a target near the THAAD launcher. So unless the Russians plan to attack Korea with SRBM/IRBMs, the deployment has no impact on them.

ah OK for some reason I thought it could intercept ICBMs as well