North Korea - how serious should we take them?

North Korea - how serious should we take them?

Author
Discussion

Chimune

3,195 posts

224 months

Wednesday 27th February 2019
quotequote all
mko9 said:
kev1974 said:
Nice, didn't know the 747 could have a door and its own steps down at that "basement" level.
It is Air Force One, it has a few custom mods.
It's the bilge exit. You need it lower down so you can get the thick sludge at the bottom, out.

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

124 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
Surreal stuff.




Edited by BlackLabel on Thursday 28th February 01:01

MattCharlton91

324 posts

141 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
It doesn't look too promising this morning, official lunches and meetings cancelled, and a press conference moved forward by 12hours?

bristolracer

5,552 posts

150 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
MattCharlton91 said:
It doesn't look too promising this morning, official lunches and meetings cancelled, and a press conference moved forward by 12hours?
Trump has to get the media attention onto the talks rather than the st going down at home.


wolfracesonic

7,071 posts

128 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
MartG said:
I wonder if the flowers are bugged...

BlackLabel said:
Greenfly?

Cobnapint

8,639 posts

152 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
MattCharlton91 said:
It doesn't look too promising this morning, official lunches and meetings cancelled, and a press conference moved forward by 12hours?
Looks like Kim only wanted to give up one facility where they enrich uranium, in return for the total lifting of sanctions. But the Yanks know of more sites, like they did when Iran was trying to pull the wool. Trump had to walk.

So if this is true - Kim doesn't really want to denuclearise and is playing for time. And they haven't even spoken about international inspectors being given free access everywhere yet.

It's going nowhere, I know Trump is a bit of a dick, but it's clear now that you cannot trust a word the NKs say. He'll never give up his nukes.

LoonyTunes

3,362 posts

76 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
Cobnapint said:
So if this is true - Kim doesn't really want to denuclearise and is playing for time. And they haven't even spoken about international inspectors being given free access everywhere yet.

It's going nowhere, I know Trump is a bit of a dick, but it's clear now that you cannot trust a word the NKs say. He'll never give up his nukes.
Playing devils advocate, why would he give up his nukes? Nobody else who's had Nuclear Weapons has ever denuclearized.

Imagine you're North Korean and the USA - who fought a war in your country - was now demanding you abolish your only real ultimate-defence against that happening again. Would you?

The USA has to go a long way in these negotiations to achieve that and rightly so...declaring the war to be over would be a good first step but only the first. We (the west) can get them to dump their nukes but we have to first accept that we will have to do a lot of bridge building to get there.

A Vietnam-type situation is possible but they aren't still technically at war with anyone or being strangled economically.

Cobnapint

8,639 posts

152 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
LoonyTunes said:
Playing devils advocate, why would he give up his nukes? Nobody else who's had Nuclear Weapons has ever denuclearized.

Imagine you're North Korean and the USA - who fought a war in your country - was now demanding you abolish your only real ultimate-defence against that happening again. Would you?

The USA has to go a long way in these negotiations to achieve that and rightly so...declaring the war to be over would be a good first step but only the first. We (the west) can get them to dump their nukes but we have to first accept that we will have to do a lot of bridge building to get there.

A Vietnam-type situation is possible but they aren't still technically at war with anyone or being strangled economically.
Kim OFFERED to give up his nukes, thats what triggered the talks. Any bridge building should be both ways - it was NK that invaded the South remember.

skyrover

12,682 posts

205 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
LoonyTunes said:
Cobnapint said:
So if this is true - Kim doesn't really want to denuclearise and is playing for time. And they haven't even spoken about international inspectors being given free access everywhere yet.

It's going nowhere, I know Trump is a bit of a dick, but it's clear now that you cannot trust a word the NKs say. He'll never give up his nukes.
Playing devils advocate, why would he give up his nukes? Nobody else who's had Nuclear Weapons has ever denuclearized.

Imagine you're North Korean and the USA - who fought a war in your country - was now demanding you abolish your only real ultimate-defence against that happening again. Would you?

The USA has to go a long way in these negotiations to achieve that and rightly so...declaring the war to be over would be a good first step but only the first. We (the west) can get them to dump their nukes but we have to first accept that we will have to do a lot of bridge building to get there.

A Vietnam-type situation is possible but they aren't still technically at war with anyone or being strangled economically.
Have a look at this list to get up to speed

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron

LoonyTunes

3,362 posts

76 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
Cobnapint said:
LoonyTunes said:
Playing devils advocate, why would he give up his nukes? Nobody else who's had Nuclear Weapons has ever denuclearized.

Imagine you're North Korean and the USA - who fought a war in your country - was now demanding you abolish your only real ultimate-defence against that happening again. Would you?

The USA has to go a long way in these negotiations to achieve that and rightly so...declaring the war to be over would be a good first step but only the first. We (the west) can get them to dump their nukes but we have to first accept that we will have to do a lot of bridge building to get there.

A Vietnam-type situation is possible but they aren't still technically at war with anyone or being strangled economically.
Kim OFFERED to give up his nukes, thats what triggered the talks. Any bridge building should be both ways - it was NK that invaded the South remember.
True it should be a two-way deal but remember this was an internal conflict which the USA got involved in for ideological reasons.

skyrover

12,682 posts

205 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
LoonyTunes said:
Cobnapint said:
LoonyTunes said:
Playing devils advocate, why would he give up his nukes? Nobody else who's had Nuclear Weapons has ever denuclearized.

Imagine you're North Korean and the USA - who fought a war in your country - was now demanding you abolish your only real ultimate-defence against that happening again. Would you?

The USA has to go a long way in these negotiations to achieve that and rightly so...declaring the war to be over would be a good first step but only the first. We (the west) can get them to dump their nukes but we have to first accept that we will have to do a lot of bridge building to get there.

A Vietnam-type situation is possible but they aren't still technically at war with anyone or being strangled economically.
Kim OFFERED to give up his nukes, thats what triggered the talks. Any bridge building should be both ways - it was NK that invaded the South remember.
True it should be a two-way deal but remember this was an internal conflict which the UN got involved in for legal reasons.
EFA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War

skwdenyer

16,628 posts

241 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
LoonyTunes said:
Cobnapint said:
LoonyTunes said:
Playing devils advocate, why would he give up his nukes? Nobody else who's had Nuclear Weapons has ever denuclearized.

Imagine you're North Korean and the USA - who fought a war in your country - was now demanding you abolish your only real ultimate-defence against that happening again. Would you?

The USA has to go a long way in these negotiations to achieve that and rightly so...declaring the war to be over would be a good first step but only the first. We (the west) can get them to dump their nukes but we have to first accept that we will have to do a lot of bridge building to get there.

A Vietnam-type situation is possible but they aren't still technically at war with anyone or being strangled economically.
Kim OFFERED to give up his nukes, thats what triggered the talks. Any bridge building should be both ways - it was NK that invaded the South remember.
True it should be a two-way deal but remember this was an internal conflict which the USA got involved in for ideological reasons.
To just blithely say "it was NK that invaded the South remember" is a bit of a sweeping simplification. Korea was only divided by the Cold War machinations of the great powers, just like Germany was divided and various other arbitrary divisions were created, and all of that only came about because of invasions during World War II.

Yes, NK *then* invaded SK in the name of reunification, and "we" went in behind SK. But we weren't really fighting against reunification, we (the West) were fighting an ideological war against communism and, arguably, a proxy battle in the Cold War. Just as the USA got involved in Vietnam.

SK has turned into a prosperous economy, just like West Germany did - not just through its own people's efforts, but because of enormous amounts of foreign aid and under the umbrella of Western defence protection.

NK has been isolated as a deliberate strategy over decades. Peace has never been declared between NK and SK.

Kim is a child of the historical conflict, not an architect of it. Whether we like it or not, if we want to achieve something approaching normality of relations and peace then we need to negotiate with him, properly. Extend the same sort of support we've extended to other states that have "come in from the cold" as it were.

The nuclear stuff is a red herring. Unless we're going to isolate Israel, India and Pakistan on the same terms, it is inconceivably inconsistent to continue to penalise NK for harbouring nuclear ambitions. The primary NK "crime" is not to kow tow to the West, something that one would have hoped by now would not be a pre-requisite of international relations. NK have seen what happens when you allow the West to dictate stuff - leaders end up strung up, civil war breaks out, etc. "Nation building" is a myth.

Trump seems to be acting as if he thinks all negotiations can be sorted out in an afternoon - that there is a big ask and a big concession or "walk away." I do agree that Trump's approach to getting in to the negotiations in the first place was pretty good; but having opened the door perhaps he should have let some others get into the grinding work of inching things forward?

LoonyTunes

3,362 posts

76 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
skyrover said:
LoonyTunes said:
Cobnapint said:
LoonyTunes said:
Playing devils advocate, why would he give up his nukes? Nobody else who's had Nuclear Weapons has ever denuclearized.

Imagine you're North Korean and the USA - who fought a war in your country - was now demanding you abolish your only real ultimate-defence against that happening again. Would you?

The USA has to go a long way in these negotiations to achieve that and rightly so...declaring the war to be over would be a good first step but only the first. We (the west) can get them to dump their nukes but we have to first accept that we will have to do a lot of bridge building to get there.

A Vietnam-type situation is possible but they aren't still technically at war with anyone or being strangled economically.
Kim OFFERED to give up his nukes, thats what triggered the talks. Any bridge building should be both ways - it was NK that invaded the South remember.
True it should be a two-way deal but remember this was an internal conflict which the UN got involved in for legal reasons.
EFA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War
Yes but in the 50's and 60's the UN was seen as a US/West run institution which was why both China and Russia supported the North. Legal scholars said that without Russia voting at the Security Council it wasn't legal.

And it was ideological in purpose. From that wiki link you posted above:

However, President Truman later acknowledged that he believed fighting the invasion was essential to the U.S. goal of the global containment of communism as outlined in the National Security Council Report 68 (NSC 68) (declassified in 1975):

Communism was acting in Korea, just as Hitler, Mussolini and the Japanese had ten, fifteen, and twenty years earlier. I felt certain that if South Korea was allowed to fall, Communist leaders would be emboldened to override nations closer to our own shores. If the Communists were permitted to force their way into the Republic of Korea without opposition from the free world, no small nation would have the courage to resist threat and aggression by stronger Communist neighbors.

Cobnapint

8,639 posts

152 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
skwdenyer said:
To just blithely say "it was NK that invaded the South remember" is a bit of a sweeping simplification. Korea was only divided by the Cold War machinations of the great powers, just like Germany was divided and various other arbitrary divisions were created, and all of that only came about because of invasions during World War II.

Yes, NK *then* invaded SK in the name of reunification, and "we" went in behind SK. But we weren't really fighting against reunification, we (the West) were fighting an ideological war against communism and, arguably, a proxy battle in the Cold War. Just as the USA got involved in Vietnam.

SK has turned into a prosperous economy, just like West Germany did - not just through its own people's efforts, but because of enormous amounts of foreign aid and under the umbrella of Western defence protection.

NK has been isolated as a deliberate strategy over decades. Peace has never been declared between NK and SK.

Kim is a child of the historical conflict, not an architect of it. Whether we like it or not, if we want to achieve something approaching normality of relations and peace then we need to negotiate with him, properly. Extend the same sort of support we've extended to other states that have "come in from the cold" as it were.

The nuclear stuff is a red herring. Unless we're going to isolate Israel, India and Pakistan on the same terms, it is inconceivably inconsistent to continue to penalise NK for harbouring nuclear ambitions. The primary NK "crime" is not to kow tow to the West, something that one would have hoped by now would not be a pre-requisite of international relations. NK have seen what happens when you allow the West to dictate stuff - leaders end up strung up, civil war breaks out, etc. "Nation building" is a myth.

Trump seems to be acting as if he thinks all negotiations can be sorted out in an afternoon - that there is a big ask and a big concession or "walk away." I do agree that Trump's approach to getting in to the negotiations in the first place was pretty good; but having opened the door perhaps he should have let some others get into the grinding work of inching things forward?
The nuke stuff is no red herring. NK prides itself on having a strong military, brainwashes it's school children and constantly brags on state media about how many missiles it has and how good they are.
He was showing special effect videos of Washington being engulfed in flames remember, testing nuke warheads and lobbing missiles over Japan in the period before things settled down with the talks.

Condi

17,302 posts

172 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
In the press conference below Kim Jong Um looks considerably more relaxed and comfortable than Trump does.

He really is a big orange fish very much out of his depth when it comes to international diplomacy.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-47408696

Penelope Stopit

11,209 posts

110 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
Cobnapint said:
skwdenyer said:
To just blithely say "it was NK that invaded the South remember" is a bit of a sweeping simplification. Korea was only divided by the Cold War machinations of the great powers, just like Germany was divided and various other arbitrary divisions were created, and all of that only came about because of invasions during World War II.

Yes, NK *then* invaded SK in the name of reunification, and "we" went in behind SK. But we weren't really fighting against reunification, we (the West) were fighting an ideological war against communism and, arguably, a proxy battle in the Cold War. Just as the USA got involved in Vietnam.

SK has turned into a prosperous economy, just like West Germany did - not just through its own people's efforts, but because of enormous amounts of foreign aid and under the umbrella of Western defence protection.

NK has been isolated as a deliberate strategy over decades. Peace has never been declared between NK and SK.

Kim is a child of the historical conflict, not an architect of it. Whether we like it or not, if we want to achieve something approaching normality of relations and peace then we need to negotiate with him, properly. Extend the same sort of support we've extended to other states that have "come in from the cold" as it were.

The nuclear stuff is a red herring. Unless we're going to isolate Israel, India and Pakistan on the same terms, it is inconceivably inconsistent to continue to penalise NK for harbouring nuclear ambitions. The primary NK "crime" is not to kow tow to the West, something that one would have hoped by now would not be a pre-requisite of international relations. NK have seen what happens when you allow the West to dictate stuff - leaders end up strung up, civil war breaks out, etc. "Nation building" is a myth.

Trump seems to be acting as if he thinks all negotiations can be sorted out in an afternoon - that there is a big ask and a big concession or "walk away." I do agree that Trump's approach to getting in to the negotiations in the first place was pretty good; but having opened the door perhaps he should have let some others get into the grinding work of inching things forward?
The nuke stuff is no red herring. NK prides itself on having a strong military, brainwashes it's school children and constantly brags on state media about how many missiles it has and how good they are.
He was showing special effect videos of Washington being engulfed in flames remember, testing nuke warheads and lobbing missiles over Japan in the period before things settled down with the talks.
The brainwashed cometh
You think it's ok for the USA to test their weapons in Iraq and Afghanistan do you

skwdenyer

16,628 posts

241 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
Cobnapint said:
The nuke stuff is no red herring. NK prides itself on having a strong military, brainwashes it's school children and constantly brags on state media about how many missiles it has and how good they are.
He was showing special effect videos of Washington being engulfed in flames remember, testing nuke warheads and lobbing missiles over Japan in the period before things settled down with the talks.
I remember very well.

My position is that (even though I sit here in the West with some considerable self-interest in not having nuclear weapons in play) it is fine for us to ask for denuclearisation, but we need to do so in the context of offering something in return. Not just relief from sanctions (sanctions being a nice word for intentionally depriving a population), but something else: investment, support, defence, etc.

Otherwise why should they say yes? Because we're a bigger bully than anyone else, throwing our weight around?

Like most bullies, we won't pick on anyone "our own size" (India, say, or even Pakistan, or especially Israel) who have developed nuclear weapons outside of established international channels or pre-approvals; no, we go after North Korea.

NK have sacrificed a great deal to get their "seat at the table" - it is laughable to imagine they will give it up without concrete benefits.

Trump got the door open by saying "hey, I'm a guy who likes to do deals; let's sit down and deal" and then seems now to have retreated to "when I said deal, I meant dictate terms... oh, you're leaving already?" That seems ridiculous.

As for red herring? I don't think nukes per se are a red herring; I think a stance that says "NK with nukes is the worst possible outcome, we must under all circumstances get rid of them" is the red herring - because it is focussing on an outcome (one inconsistent with our stance elsewhere). Attitudes like this are a large part of the problem:

Cobnapint said:
Looks like Kim only wanted to give up one facility where they enrich uranium, in return for the total lifting of sanctions. But the Yanks know of more sites, like they did when Iran was trying to pull the wool. Trump had to walk.

So if this is true - Kim doesn't really want to denuclearise and is playing for time. And they haven't even spoken about international inspectors being given free access everywhere yet.

It's going nowhere, I know Trump is a bit of a dick, but it's clear now that you cannot trust a word the NKs say. He'll never give up his nukes.
Trump has said that NK wanted all sanctions lifted; NK have said that's not so. Which do you trust? 50:50 in my book... How is it clear that NK can't be trusted? Kim has made good on every promise so far, which is more than can be said for the Trump presidency smile

Getting countries who don't agree with you to do things that are in your interests is called diplomacy, something that the hawks in Washington would do well to remember. Otherwise what's the alternative? Continue with sanctions that are in reality hitting only those least able to help themselves in the NK population? Might as well carpet-bomb the place; the effect would be similar, but at least bombing is a faster death for those people.

Cobnapint

8,639 posts

152 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
skwdenyer said:
Cobnapint said:
The nuke stuff is no red herring. NK prides itself on having a strong military, brainwashes it's school children and constantly brags on state media about how many missiles it has and how good they are.
He was showing special effect videos of Washington being engulfed in flames remember, testing nuke warheads and lobbing missiles over Japan in the period before things settled down with the talks.
I remember very well.

My position is that (even though I sit here in the West with some considerable self-interest in not having nuclear weapons in play) it is fine for us to ask for denuclearisation, but we need to do so in the context of offering something in return. Not just relief from sanctions (sanctions being a nice word for intentionally depriving a population), but something else: investment, support, defence, etc.

Otherwise why should they say yes? Because we're a bigger bully than anyone else, throwing our weight around?

Like most bullies, we won't pick on anyone "our own size" (India, say, or even Pakistan, or especially Israel) who have developed nuclear weapons outside of established international channels or pre-approvals; no, we go after North Korea.

NK have sacrificed a great deal to get their "seat at the table" - it is laughable to imagine they will give it up without concrete benefits.

Trump got the door open by saying "hey, I'm a guy who likes to do deals; let's sit down and deal" and then seems now to have retreated to "when I said deal, I meant dictate terms... oh, you're leaving already?" That seems ridiculous.

As for red herring? I don't think nukes per se are a red herring; I think a stance that says "NK with nukes is the worst possible outcome, we must under all circumstances get rid of them" is the red herring - because it is focussing on an outcome (one inconsistent with our stance elsewhere). Attitudes like this are a large part of the problem:

Cobnapint said:
Looks like Kim only wanted to give up one facility where they enrich uranium, in return for the total lifting of sanctions. But the Yanks know of more sites, like they did when Iran was trying to pull the wool. Trump had to walk.

So if this is true - Kim doesn't really want to denuclearise and is playing for time. And they haven't even spoken about international inspectors being given free access everywhere yet.

It's going nowhere, I know Trump is a bit of a dick, but it's clear now that you cannot trust a word the NKs say. He'll never give up his nukes.
Trump has said that NK wanted all sanctions lifted; NK have said that's not so. Which do you trust? 50:50 in my book... How is it clear that NK can't be trusted? Kim has made good on every promise so far, which is more than can be said for the Trump presidency smile

Getting countries who don't agree with you to do things that are in your interests is called diplomacy, something that the hawks in Washington would do well to remember. Otherwise what's the alternative? Continue with sanctions that are in reality hitting only those least able to help themselves in the NK population? Might as well carpet-bomb the place; the effect would be similar, but at least bombing is a faster death for those people.
Trump has offered something in return right from the outset and it follows the usual pattern - sanctions will be lifted when you stop being an arse, get rid of your nukes and stop developing any more. He's also promised financial aid and a way out for those least able to help themselves (as long as Kim doesn't blow it on other stuff).

You say Kim said they didn't want all sanctions lifted - when did he say that? Via state TV when he got home to keep the locals happy? My guess is that they smell impeachment for Trump coming and DID play their hand early.
There's a process to follow. Blowing up a couple of garden sheds and an old entrance to a disused underground facility just doesn't wash. And it certainly doesn't count as keeping your promises when the promises themselves are meaningless.

skwdenyer

16,628 posts

241 months

Thursday 28th February 2019
quotequote all
Cobnapint said:
Trump has offered something in return right from the outset and it follows the usual pattern - sanctions will be lifted when you stop being an arse, get rid of your nukes and stop developing any more. He's also promised financial aid and a way out for those least able to help themselves (as long as Kim doesn't blow it on other stuff).

You say Kim said they didn't want all sanctions lifted - when did he say that? Via state TV when he got home to keep the locals happy? My guess is that they smell impeachment for Trump coming and DID play their hand early.
There's a process to follow. Blowing up a couple of garden sheds and an old entrance to a disused underground facility just doesn't wash. And it certainly doesn't count as keeping your promises when the promises themselves are meaningless.
Trump said something in public. Kim said something in public. Which do you believe? Honestly, I don't have a steer on which to pick - both are just as likely to be (in)credible.

There's a process, yes. Just as with Iran, except Kim will be very well aware that - from what we can see - Iran followed the process and still got screwed by Trump. Without nukes, Kim knows that - without other watertight guarantees from multiple overseas partners - that his days are numbered. Like it or not, we have to deal with the man as well as the regime.

What has been said by NK today - that they offered something in return for something - seems like the right approach. 1 step forward on each side. I can't see any way in which either side is going to offer "everything" up-front - there's just too big a trust gap right there.

As I've said previously, Trump has done well at getting this far, but it feels to me as though it is time to let the grown-ups back into the room...

hidetheelephants

24,702 posts

194 months

Friday 1st March 2019
quotequote all
LoonyTunes said:
Playing devils advocate, why would he give up his nukes? Nobody else who's had Nuclear Weapons has ever denuclearized.
South Africa and Ukraine voluntarily disarmed, granted the latter is not an encouraging example.