Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
DeejRC said:
Again Skw, I’d refrain from speaking of that which you know little. RE’s problems were nothing to do with the wider industry, support or pay. I know, or rather, knew, them very well. In fact I walked past their office on the way for my coffee and munch at breakie today. I was looking at some of their rigs for purchase when they went tits up. I’ve been working next to them for the last 5yrs, plenty of cross pollination of engineers and knowledge between the companies.
So I can speak with quite some experience that RE’s problems began entirely and kept being entirely about themselves.
Amusingly enough, do you want to know what one of the greatest benefits from Brexit in the engineering industry has been? The huge influx of experienced and talented British engineers back into the UK industry and the subsequent rise in ideas, quality and money.
There is quite a bit of interesting 4 wheeled metal on site at Culham for a place that is underpaid…
Quite a few filthy contractors as well though....So I can speak with quite some experience that RE’s problems began entirely and kept being entirely about themselves.
Amusingly enough, do you want to know what one of the greatest benefits from Brexit in the engineering industry has been? The huge influx of experienced and talented British engineers back into the UK industry and the subsequent rise in ideas, quality and money.
There is quite a bit of interesting 4 wheeled metal on site at Culham for a place that is underpaid…
Bandit said:
From telegraph today about ECB
"..... the ECB has kept rates at record lows, and printed money on an unprecedented scale. Indeed, its balance sheet, the best measure of the amount printed, has ballooned to more than €8 trillion, or 82pc of the zone’s GDP (compared with 36pc for the Federal Reserve and 39pc for the BofE)."
Where on earth has all that money gone, and what on earth is going to happen when they have to stop printing it?
Well indeed - why do we have high levels of inflation. "..... the ECB has kept rates at record lows, and printed money on an unprecedented scale. Indeed, its balance sheet, the best measure of the amount printed, has ballooned to more than €8 trillion, or 82pc of the zone’s GDP (compared with 36pc for the Federal Reserve and 39pc for the BofE)."
Where on earth has all that money gone, and what on earth is going to happen when they have to stop printing it?
Are we really supposed to be so stupid as to not realise that when you flow €8 trillion into the mix then its bound to raise prices.
Where has it gone ? Well in fairness the EU do a good job at reconstruction roads and other things, but yes mostly it got helicoptered into banks, who lent it out.
bucksmanuk said:
DeejRC said:
Again Skw, I’d refrain from speaking of that which you know little. RE’s problems were nothing to do with the wider industry, support or pay. I know, or rather, knew, them very well. In fact I walked past their office on the way for my coffee and munch at breakie today. I was looking at some of their rigs for purchase when they went tits up. I’ve been working next to them for the last 5yrs, plenty of cross pollination of engineers and knowledge between the companies.
So I can speak with quite some experience that RE’s problems began entirely and kept being entirely about themselves.
Amusingly enough, do you want to know what one of the greatest benefits from Brexit in the engineering industry has been? The huge influx of experienced and talented British engineers back into the UK industry and the subsequent rise in ideas, quality and money.
There is quite a bit of interesting 4 wheeled metal on site at Culham for a place that is underpaid…
Quite a few filthy contractors as well though....So I can speak with quite some experience that RE’s problems began entirely and kept being entirely about themselves.
Amusingly enough, do you want to know what one of the greatest benefits from Brexit in the engineering industry has been? The huge influx of experienced and talented British engineers back into the UK industry and the subsequent rise in ideas, quality and money.
There is quite a bit of interesting 4 wheeled metal on site at Culham for a place that is underpaid…
hole poncing about in Pasta Rockets either these days...Gargamel said:
Bandit said:
From telegraph today about ECB
"..... the ECB has kept rates at record lows, and printed money on an unprecedented scale. Indeed, its balance sheet, the best measure of the amount printed, has ballooned to more than €8 trillion, or 82pc of the zone’s GDP (compared with 36pc for the Federal Reserve and 39pc for the BofE)."
Where on earth has all that money gone, and what on earth is going to happen when they have to stop printing it?
Well indeed - why do we have high levels of inflation. "..... the ECB has kept rates at record lows, and printed money on an unprecedented scale. Indeed, its balance sheet, the best measure of the amount printed, has ballooned to more than €8 trillion, or 82pc of the zone’s GDP (compared with 36pc for the Federal Reserve and 39pc for the BofE)."
Where on earth has all that money gone, and what on earth is going to happen when they have to stop printing it?
Are we really supposed to be so stupid as to not realise that when you flow €8 trillion into the mix then its bound to raise prices.
Where has it gone ? Well in fairness the EU do a good job at reconstruction roads and other things, but yes mostly it got helicoptered into banks, who lent it out.
In fairness to Draghi et al, they DID throw the kitchen sink at the immediate problem and prevented the utter collapse of the system. Now, a lot of you love to shout out "kicking the can down the road", but the reality is *nobody* could afford the ECB and the Eurozone going tits up in the last 10yrs. Its not even something that could be contemplated in any way realistically. So the only realistic option on the table was throw money at it, even though everyone knew it was the least efficient method.
Apart from the Irish of course, who were most probably worrying about how to make NI the most important conversation ever about everything.
Getting closer to crunch time. The orange lady is walking a tightrope.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-debt-laden...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-debt-laden...
YankeePorker said:
Getting closer to crunch time. The orange lady is walking a tightrope.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-debt-laden...
And Drahgi has resigned...https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-debt-laden...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62249050
AstonZagato said:
YankeePorker said:
Getting closer to crunch time. The orange lady is walking a tightrope.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-debt-laden...
And Drahgi has resigned...https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-debt-laden...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62249050
I'm can't wait to see how he tops this next week.
Digga said:
Twice in a fortnight. Unprecendted.
I'm can't wait to see how he tops this next week.
Errrr, it's worse than that. The ECB just hiked 50bps. Wowzers. Fragmentation is a serious risk.I'm can't wait to see how he tops this next week.
TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do.
And forward guidance is binned. What a morning.
AstonZagato said:
And Drahgi has resigned...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62249050
It's Italy, it's what they do.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62249050
Considering he wasn't even elected, but imposed, he lasted quite long in Italian political leader timelines.
Each new government election goes more extreme right wing, this next election is going to cause a lot of upset people in the EU.
stongle said:
Digga said:
Twice in a fortnight. Unprecendted.
I'm can't wait to see how he tops this next week.
Errrr, it's worse than that. The ECB just hiked 50bps. Wowzers. Fragmentation is a serious risk.I'm can't wait to see how he tops this next week.
TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do.
And forward guidance is binned. What a morning.
and what it actually means in action thanks in advance...Vanden Saab said:
stongle said:
Digga said:
Twice in a fortnight. Unprecendted.
I'm can't wait to see how he tops this next week.
Errrr, it's worse than that. The ECB just hiked 50bps. Wowzers. Fragmentation is a serious risk.I'm can't wait to see how he tops this next week.
TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do.
And forward guidance is binned. What a morning.
and what it actually means in action thanks in advance...TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do. = Deeper poop.
And forward guidance is binned. = Really deep poop.
What a morning. = Stongle needs a shower.
DeejRC said:
Errrr, it's worse than that. The ECB just hiked 50bps. Wowzers. Fragmentation is a serious risk. = In the poop.
TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do. = Deeper poop.
And forward guidance is binned. = Really deep poop.
What a morning. = Stongle needs a shower.
TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do. = Deeper poop.
And forward guidance is binned. = Really deep poop.
What a morning. = Stongle needs a shower.
DeejRC said:
Errrr, it's worse than that. The ECB just hiked 50bps. Wowzers. Fragmentation is a serious risk. = In the poop.
TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do. = Deeper poop.
And forward guidance is binned. = Really deep poop.
What a morning. = Stongle needs a shower.
Very good sir.TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do. = Deeper poop.
And forward guidance is binned. = Really deep poop.
What a morning. = Stongle needs a shower.
Basically, they hiked rates quicker than they previously said they would (which spooks the market).
Doing that adds pressure to indebted states, especially those with approaching debt rollovers (Italy is about 500bn by 2024), bond yields there spiked to 3.58% - way higher than Germany; so they promised the market a Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). Basically a guarantee that the ECB will act to protect monetary transmission (or buy up bonds of countries in the s
t). TPI is really Trying (to) Protect Italy. I don't think anyone is that convinced, as EUR is virtually flat vs USD.It's a tough gig at the ECB. Lagarde is trying to choreographe a silent disco with 19 channels. Everyone dancing at a different beat and a few of the dancers on the disco biscuits.
It's going to make internal EU politics super interesting.
Edited by stongle on Thursday 21st July 15:19
stongle said:
DeejRC said:
Errrr, it's worse than that. The ECB just hiked 50bps. Wowzers. Fragmentation is a serious risk. = In the poop.
TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do. = Deeper poop.
And forward guidance is binned. = Really deep poop.
What a morning. = Stongle needs a shower.
Very good sir.TPI is going to have to impress the market, or it's serious doo-do. = Deeper poop.
And forward guidance is binned. = Really deep poop.
What a morning. = Stongle needs a shower.
Basically, they hiked rates quicker than the previously said they would (which spooks the market).
Doing that adds pressure to indebted states, especially those with approaching debt rollovers (Italy is about 500bn by 2024), bond yields there spiked to 3.58% - way higher than Germany; so they promised the market a Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). Basically a guarantee that the ECB will act to protect monetary transmission (or buy up bonds of countries in the s
t). TPI is really Trying (to) Protect Italy. I don't think anyone is that convinced, as EUR is virtually flat vs USD.It's a tough gig at the ECB. Lagarde is trying to choreographe a silent disco with 19 channels. Everyone dancing at a different beat and a few of the dancers on the disco biscuits.
It's going to make internal EU politics super interesting.
And having pulled to 1.028 v $ it’s now back down to €1.02.
And for their next trick…
Ridgemont said:
Forward guidance going as they spike 0.5% is going calm everything totally
And having pulled to 1.028 v $ it’s now back down to €1.02.
And for their next trick…
I've said it before dude. It's spells and wizardry. Biden catching Covid might dent the $ a bit, but that's announced AFTER the market went "meh" about 50bps and TPI. Oil heading down is helping, the ECB action hasn't done much on the CCY level (yet).And having pulled to 1.028 v $ it’s now back down to €1.02.
And for their next trick…
Fed nextweek, BoE week after (rocky road for GBP inbound).
PushedDover said:
stongle said:
It's a tough gig at the ECB. Lagarde is trying to choreographe a silent disco with 19 channels. Everyone dancing at a different beat and a few of the dancers on the disco biscuits.
Shocking how little their surprise moved the FX market - almost as though they don't believe it.
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