Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]
Discussion
I do not see the Euro lasting as long as others, and if the Euro falls so will the EU project.
If there's a Leave vote ( and Remain need a 4% lead in the polls to get a majority taking into account the age skew and the propensity of Remainers not to bother voting, then add in the Leave contingent who are highly motivated to get out and vote) Cameron and Osborne are out. The ball will then start rolling in other Eu countries.
The Netherlands and perhaps France will then go for a referendum of their own. Hollande will probably be out on his proverbial in next years elections anyhow so its a matter of conjecture if Le Penn's FN can get enough support for a referendum of their own but they will call for one in any event.
The Dutch PM has already said that he doesn't want a Referendumn as he would lose and the Dutch would vote out. The Dutch will ask for a referendum of their own if we vote Leave.
Thus all bets would be off.
In addition where will the EU get the money to function without the UK, that £7 billion nett contribution went somewhere keeping some one in the EU very happy , will they be as happy when its gone?
If there's a very close Remain vote, which at the moment, looking at the polls and the movement within them, is all Remain can hope for, Cameron and Osborne are again out ( they are now both a liability within the conservative party and the country at large as their credibility and political capital is exhausted) with a highly fractious and split Conservative party bleeding away and feeding support to UKip.
Many past conservative voters feel betrayed by Cameron et al, and how will the new leaders win them back? Perhaps a Referendum No 2 triggered by some EU problem?
Problems such as Greece, Italy, Spain, Portuigal, continueing youth unemployment, the French and German elections with Far right parties echoing UKs referendum, the UK not getting the changes promised to Cameron,UK being forced to join bailouts, continuing Migrant problems as Turkey reopens the floodgates,etc etc. There are many excuses that a pro Referendum government can hang their reasoning on.
Moreover, with every stumble of the EU the Leave side will be on the sidelines crying " we told you so, you hoodwinked and lied to the public" which with a split conservative party, a UKip on the rise ( perhaps some more backbenchers crossing the floor) and the 8 DUP's there could a vote of confidence with an early election as the public see the EU situation getting worse and worse.
We could very well end up with a minority Labour govt supported by SNP or a minority Conservative Government supported by an enlarged parliamentary Ukip party and the Brexit DUP.
One way to avoid either of these situations is if the conservatives, trying once again to spike UKIP's guns, do exactly as Cameron has done and they offer another referendum to the public. Would Boris, Gove, even May et al do this? You can bet they would.
Faced with say another two years of the EU falling apart, and with the evidence of disaster within the EU writ large, the chances of a leave vote in a second referendum will be extremely high.
Either way the European dream is over. It's not a question of If , it's a question of When?
Just my 2 p's worth.
Cheers,
Tony
If there's a Leave vote ( and Remain need a 4% lead in the polls to get a majority taking into account the age skew and the propensity of Remainers not to bother voting, then add in the Leave contingent who are highly motivated to get out and vote) Cameron and Osborne are out. The ball will then start rolling in other Eu countries.
The Netherlands and perhaps France will then go for a referendum of their own. Hollande will probably be out on his proverbial in next years elections anyhow so its a matter of conjecture if Le Penn's FN can get enough support for a referendum of their own but they will call for one in any event.
The Dutch PM has already said that he doesn't want a Referendumn as he would lose and the Dutch would vote out. The Dutch will ask for a referendum of their own if we vote Leave.
Thus all bets would be off.
In addition where will the EU get the money to function without the UK, that £7 billion nett contribution went somewhere keeping some one in the EU very happy , will they be as happy when its gone?
If there's a very close Remain vote, which at the moment, looking at the polls and the movement within them, is all Remain can hope for, Cameron and Osborne are again out ( they are now both a liability within the conservative party and the country at large as their credibility and political capital is exhausted) with a highly fractious and split Conservative party bleeding away and feeding support to UKip.
Many past conservative voters feel betrayed by Cameron et al, and how will the new leaders win them back? Perhaps a Referendum No 2 triggered by some EU problem?
Problems such as Greece, Italy, Spain, Portuigal, continueing youth unemployment, the French and German elections with Far right parties echoing UKs referendum, the UK not getting the changes promised to Cameron,UK being forced to join bailouts, continuing Migrant problems as Turkey reopens the floodgates,etc etc. There are many excuses that a pro Referendum government can hang their reasoning on.
Moreover, with every stumble of the EU the Leave side will be on the sidelines crying " we told you so, you hoodwinked and lied to the public" which with a split conservative party, a UKip on the rise ( perhaps some more backbenchers crossing the floor) and the 8 DUP's there could a vote of confidence with an early election as the public see the EU situation getting worse and worse.
We could very well end up with a minority Labour govt supported by SNP or a minority Conservative Government supported by an enlarged parliamentary Ukip party and the Brexit DUP.
One way to avoid either of these situations is if the conservatives, trying once again to spike UKIP's guns, do exactly as Cameron has done and they offer another referendum to the public. Would Boris, Gove, even May et al do this? You can bet they would.
Faced with say another two years of the EU falling apart, and with the evidence of disaster within the EU writ large, the chances of a leave vote in a second referendum will be extremely high.
Either way the European dream is over. It's not a question of If , it's a question of When?
Just my 2 p's worth.
Cheers,
Tony
Mothersruin said:
I foresee pure Zimbabwian electoral transparency if there's a Leave result.
The government will outright lie.
I don't even think they'll bother with a further one as Ireland had, they'll just be dishonest.
This is exactly what I believe. I almost replied here with more or less the same thing yesterday.The government will outright lie.
I don't even think they'll bother with a further one as Ireland had, they'll just be dishonest.
Staying in the Euro makes financial sense for those up high with fingers in pies. The referendum is just an attempt to quieten the voices of descent.
Driller said:
This is exactly what I believe. I almost replied here with more or less the same thing yesterday.
Staying in the Euro makes financial sense for those up high with fingers in pies. The referendum is just an attempt to quieten the voices of descent.
I agree entirely. You only have to look at the revolving door between politics and big business - Goldman Sachs for one - and also the cushy roles many politicians are gifted in their post-national careers in places like the EU, ECB, IMF OECD etc. etc. quango quango...Staying in the Euro makes financial sense for those up high with fingers in pies. The referendum is just an attempt to quieten the voices of descent.
I did think this was an interesting development: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/gre...
It maybe a zerohedge article, but it certainly covers it well.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-03/exposing-...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-03/exposing-...
Digga said:
Driller said:
This is exactly what I believe. I almost replied here with more or less the same thing yesterday.
Staying in the Euro makes financial sense for those up high with fingers in pies. The referendum is just an attempt to quieten the voices of descent.
I agree entirely. You only have to look at the revolving door between politics and big business - Goldman Sachs for one - and also the cushy roles many politicians are gifted in their post-national careers in places like the EU, ECB, IMF OECD etc. etc. quango quango...Staying in the Euro makes financial sense for those up high with fingers in pies. The referendum is just an attempt to quieten the voices of descent.
I did think this was an interesting development: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/gre...
The appalling examples set by Tony Blair, Neil Kinnock, Gordon Brown etc etc are just dreadful. UK politics has become a game where getting high office by whatever means necessary ensures future security and safety on the international politcal merrygoround that these sinecure appointments achieve.
Modern UK polics s very very bad news. Major changes needed. The collapse of the Euro and thence the EU will offer the possibility of such a change. What I am certain of, is that the complete madnesses of throwing more and more money to the ailing states is not a sustainable support mechanism! I really do think that the end is new visibly Nigh!
Well the referendum is approaching steadily and the vituperative nonsense in the media circus surrounding the major players in this referendum is ever increasing. Pity because such antagonistic claptrap merely ensures permanent bitterness and resentment between former friends, (if such things exist in Politics), colleages and members of both the main political parties which will ensure that whatever the result a great many former comrades will no longer be on speaking terms. Which does nobody any good at all?
I still think that from all that I can see, it seems likely that the Remain vote will prevail and the majority of the votes therein will be in favour of remaining within the EU, rather than supporting an immediate exit for the UK from the EU.
Sadly I am also totally convinced that the reality of the impossibility of the EU every effectively facing and dealing with any of the deep and serious endemic economic collapse that is now all too visible, wthin a number of the member states, within the EU, that is now, very visible to even the casual observer.
We may vote to continue within the EU but this rapidly degenerating ineffective grouping cannot and will not continue for long. With the likes of the Greek madness going on and idiots like Hollande in France, driving his entire country towards complete economic ruin, there really can be no hope of any realistic chance of recovery.
One way or another I am becoming more and mre convinced that actually managing the economic problems within the EU, is actually totally beyond the EU itself. Had the EU actually got control of the failing states then there might have been a slim chance of recovery. What te EU has done is to waste billions of Euros on bailing out totally insolvent states like Greece. Greece has not recovered, has not shown the slightest chance of recovering and simply borrows more and more and more and more.
We do live in interesting times. How long will all this trundle on? The EU Bureaucrats and Politicians will run it as long as they can. that seems to be the real aim of modern politics. But reality will inevitably, fall upon the EU and confidence will fall away. Matter of time and not very long I think?
What do omers think? Can anyone see this position being recovered? I cannot see it myself. Then there are going to be some problems!
I still think that from all that I can see, it seems likely that the Remain vote will prevail and the majority of the votes therein will be in favour of remaining within the EU, rather than supporting an immediate exit for the UK from the EU.
Sadly I am also totally convinced that the reality of the impossibility of the EU every effectively facing and dealing with any of the deep and serious endemic economic collapse that is now all too visible, wthin a number of the member states, within the EU, that is now, very visible to even the casual observer.
We may vote to continue within the EU but this rapidly degenerating ineffective grouping cannot and will not continue for long. With the likes of the Greek madness going on and idiots like Hollande in France, driving his entire country towards complete economic ruin, there really can be no hope of any realistic chance of recovery.
One way or another I am becoming more and mre convinced that actually managing the economic problems within the EU, is actually totally beyond the EU itself. Had the EU actually got control of the failing states then there might have been a slim chance of recovery. What te EU has done is to waste billions of Euros on bailing out totally insolvent states like Greece. Greece has not recovered, has not shown the slightest chance of recovering and simply borrows more and more and more and more.
We do live in interesting times. How long will all this trundle on? The EU Bureaucrats and Politicians will run it as long as they can. that seems to be the real aim of modern politics. But reality will inevitably, fall upon the EU and confidence will fall away. Matter of time and not very long I think?
What do omers think? Can anyone see this position being recovered? I cannot see it myself. Then there are going to be some problems!
Edited by Steffan on Friday 10th June 21:38
We know that the Italian banks are exposed to so much bad debt they are a basket case. One push and they are gone. Are they exposed to the Greek debt crisis?
Now that Greece owes over £360 billion , with another tranche on its way, what would happen if Greece just decides " Sod it. We are defaulting. We cannot go on."
What would happen then?
A combination of Italy and Greek economic turmoil will sink the Eurozone. Where's a Soros when you need one?
Cheers,
Tony
Now that Greece owes over £360 billion , with another tranche on its way, what would happen if Greece just decides " Sod it. We are defaulting. We cannot go on."
What would happen then?
A combination of Italy and Greek economic turmoil will sink the Eurozone. Where's a Soros when you need one?
Cheers,
Tony
Tsubaki said:
Absolutely superb, What a find. Cheers,
Tony
Tony427 said:
We know that the Italian banks are exposed to so much bad debt they are a basket case. One push and they are gone. Are they exposed to the Greek debt crisis?
Now that Greece owes over £360 billion , with another tranche on its way, what would happen if Greece just decides " Sod it. We are defaulting. We cannot go on."
What would happen then?
A combination of Italy and Greek economic turmoil will sink the Eurozone. Where's a Soros when you need one?
Cheers,
Tony
I think the Greek money is mostly churn so that it looks like something is being paid and repaid. Now that Greece owes over £360 billion , with another tranche on its way, what would happen if Greece just decides " Sod it. We are defaulting. We cannot go on."
What would happen then?
A combination of Italy and Greek economic turmoil will sink the Eurozone. Where's a Soros when you need one?
Cheers,
Tony
It's a bit like running on a credit card at its limit. Every one else eventually gets paid but the debt keeps building as they sell you more stuff. Pay day loans, but whose pay day?
As for Soros ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3633745/Ge...
LongQ said:
I think the Greek money is mostly churn so that it looks like something is being paid and repaid.
It's a bit like running on a credit card at its limit. Every one else eventually gets paid but the debt keeps building as they sell you more stuff. Pay day loans, but whose pay day?
As for Soros ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3633745/Ge...
Steffan has been chatting to Soros It's a bit like running on a credit card at its limit. Every one else eventually gets paid but the debt keeps building as they sell you more stuff. Pay day loans, but whose pay day?
As for Soros ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3633745/Ge...
Tony427 said:
Tsubaki said:
Absolutely superb, What a find. Cheers,
Tony
note the date it was uploaded .wc98 said:
Tony427 said:
Tsubaki said:
Absolutely superb, What a find. Cheers,
Tony
note the date it was uploaded .Exactly, and it's only got worse.
REALIST123 said:
wc98 said:
Tony427 said:
Tsubaki said:
Absolutely superb, What a find. Cheers,
Tony
note the date it was uploaded .Exactly, and it's only got worse.
I knew it was a few years old, here's one from last year...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ue9ek9tTSg
An even older one...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwKEwo4Bc
Maybe satire, but how far from the truth is it and how far can a can be kicked down the road?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ue9ek9tTSg
An even older one...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5QwKEwo4Bc
Maybe satire, but how far from the truth is it and how far can a can be kicked down the road?
C
It's a bit like running on a credit card at its limit. Every one else eventually gets paid but the debt keeps building as they sell you more stuff. Pay day loans, but whose pay day?
As for Soros ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3633745/Ge...Soros seems to me to be making a lot more sense than the politicians in te UK, currently. Curioser and Curioser said Alice being a pretty fair description of the nonsense economc polices that are being favoured within the EU. Printing money to enable hoplessly insolvent economically inadequate Sovereign States to remain within the EU is never going to achieve any improvement in the steadily weakening overall economic postion within the EU. There will be an inevitable period of reckoning and the future of the EU is becoming less and less certain.
It is not long before we will know the results of the UK vote. What happens then I do wonder. Headlines suggest the Brext vote is strengthening. Again I do wonder. But what is certain, is that major changes are going to take place. A great many (450,000) voters appear to have regstered late recently? Could that be the Corbyn groupies following instructions? If so then the Remain camp definitely seems to to have made some efforts.
All there to play for currently! What do others think?
LongQ said:
Tony427 said:
We know that the Italian banks are exposed to so much bad debt they are a basket case. One push and they are gone. Are they exposed to the Greek debt crisis?
Now that Greece owes over £360 billion , with another tranche on its way, what would happen if Greece just decides " Sod it. We are defaulting. We cannot go on."
What would happen then?
A combination of Italy and Greek economic turmoil will sink the Eurozone. Where's a Soros when you need one?
Cheers,
Tony
I think the Greek money is mostly churn so that it looks like something is being paid and repaid. Now that Greece owes over £360 billion , with another tranche on its way, what would happen if Greece just decides " Sod it. We are defaulting. We cannot go on."
What would happen then?
A combination of Italy and Greek economic turmoil will sink the Eurozone. Where's a Soros when you need one?
Cheers,
Tony
It's a bit like running on a credit card at its limit. Every one else eventually gets paid but the debt keeps building as they sell you more stuff. Pay day loans, but whose pay day?
As for Soros ...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3633745/Ge...
It is not long before we will know the results of the UK vote. What happens then I do wonder. Headlines suggest the Brext vote is strengthening. Again I do wonder. But what is certain, is that major changes are going to take place. A great many (450,000) voters appear to have regstered late recently? Could that be the Corbyn groupies following instructions? If so then the Remain camp definitely seems to to have made some efforts.
All there to play for currently! What do others think?
Steffan said:
All there to play for currently! What do others think?
we found out all about the shy tory effect at the last election steffan. i think in the referendum we will find out about the shy leave voter . there can be no denying some elements , particularly on various social media outlets, of the leave campaign have come across as a bit shouty . the pc brigade have also labeled those seeking controlled immigration as racists and bigots. most people would not like to be associated with those accusations even when far from accurate.to that end i believe that a large proportion of people likely to vote leave will remain silent during the debate and make their point at the ballot box. this is all imo of course. however, as i live in scotland ,where the support for remain is supposedly higher than anywhere else in the uk and am finding it hard to find support for remain, i have to assume that the support for remain as portrayed in the media is not representative of the situation on the ground.
wc98 said:
Steffan said:
All there to play for currently! What do others think?
we found out all about the shy tory effect at the last election steffan. i think in the referendum we will find out about the shy leave voter . there can be no denying some elements , particularly on various social media outlets, of the leave campaign have come across as a bit shouty . the pc brigade have also labeled those seeking controlled immigration as racists and bigots. most people would not like to be associated with those accusations even when far from accurate.to that end i believe that a large proportion of people likely to vote leave will remain silent during the debate and make their point at the ballot box. this is all imo of course. however, as i live in scotland ,where the support for remain is supposedly higher than anywhere else in the uk and am finding it hard to find support for remain, i have to assume that the support for remain as portrayed in the media is not representative of the situation on the ground.
The logic you are applying does suggest there may well be a silent majority voting against continuing within the EU. My thoughts on the sudden rapid increase in voters regstering recently suggests an organised campaign using social meda to effect support for the Remain camp and the Corbyn phenomena suggests a similar process to me. That would probably indicate more Remain voters.However I do agree with you a good many Brexit supporters appear to be silently not indicating their choice until polling day, which is now, less than a fortnight away. Very difficuult to be certain either way. The polling prediction inadequacies at the last election have never been satsfactrily explained IMO. The pollsters have offerred various reasons but 9 election eve polls were dramatically inaccurate and begs the question? Are these polls actually reliable indicators of the voters real intentions? From our recent experiences in the UK definitely suggest not, I think? I do wonder why??
We drove across the South Coast of England recenty visiting friends (yes, we have a few) and travelled down through the Wesy Country, via Bristol, Bude and Redruth and then thence to Penzance right across from Penzance to Goring via Winchester and Petersfield. We exercised a via visual poll of Remain signs and Brexit signs on houses and cars. Obviously this poll which took several days has no scientific basis whatsoever. But the results suggested at lease two to one votes against remaining within the EU?
It would be most interesting to hear from others whether that is the general perception of PH. In itself hardly representative but nevertheless interesting. My own view is that the vote will be close? I still think Remain is marginally ahead but it is undoubtedly getting tighter. Over to everyone else!
Yesterday I drove the 150 odd miles from Gerrards Cross to Lowestoft;18 Vote Leave signs, only 1 for Remain.
May just mean that the vote Leave campaign have chosen 'next to motorway advertising' as one way to influence the vote.
Anyway, a vote to Leave that is accepted by Cameron will surely set the ball rolling for the end game. Anti EU feeling is growing across the 'zone and is slowly becoming the majority stance in other countries as well as the UK.
May just mean that the vote Leave campaign have chosen 'next to motorway advertising' as one way to influence the vote.
Anyway, a vote to Leave that is accepted by Cameron will surely set the ball rolling for the end game. Anti EU feeling is growing across the 'zone and is slowly becoming the majority stance in other countries as well as the UK.
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