Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[All that jazz]

Steffan said:

Not our concern now, we are leaving! It will take time, but it IS a fact

Do you actually believe that will happen Steffan? I'm very surprised to see you say that given your cycnicism for everything else EU related.

[Steffan]

All that jazz said:

Steffan said:

Not our concern now, we are leaving! It will take time, but it IS a fact

Do you actually believe that will happen Steffan? I'm very surprised to see you say that given your cycnicism for everything else EU related.

You are clearly right to be concerned.

As my father aways said:

Never, ever, trust the government!

Repeat

Never, ever, trust the government!,

I am hopeful that the new administration which is likely to be headed by Theresa May who was prettyn emphatic tha the die was cast and that she saw her duties as beng to implement the Brexit vote. Whilst there were serious suggestions that there might be an attempt to reverse ths decision, it does seem to me that the extent of the real support forbsuch a move has already started to seriously diminsh.

I think privately the politicians have realised how out of ouch they had become. To my mind as May has suggested her job will be to ensre that getting a team together to set the challenging process in motion is her prmary concern. I thinks that thus may be the beginning of demonstrating that reality politics is taking over. The shock really has significantly shaken tthe complacency in politics and therefore I am cautiously optimistic that any attempt to interfere with ths decision will be seen as suicidal.

However that is only my opinion and I do agree, there may be such an attempt and therefore you are right to be wary. But currently based on all I can see I do think the politicans have recognised their mistake and are vey unlikely to challenge the process.

[All that jazz]

Steffan said:

All that jazz said:

Steffan said:

Not our concern now, we are leaving! It will take time, but it IS a fact

Do you actually believe that will happen Steffan? I'm very surprised to see you say that given your cycnicism for everything else EU related.

You are clearly right to be concerned.

As my father aways said:

Never, ever, trust the government!

Repeat

Never, ever, trust the government!,

I am hopeful that the new administration which is likely to be headed by Theresa May who was prettyn emphatic tha the die was cast and that she saw her duties as beng to implement the Brexit vote. Whilst there were serious suggestions that there might be an attempt to reverse ths decision, it does seem to me that the extent of the real support forbsuch a move has already started to seriously diminsh.

I think privately the politicians have realised how out of ouch they had become. To my mind as May has suggested her job will be to ensre that getting a team together to set the challenging process in motion is her prmary concern. I thinks that thus may be the beginning of demonstrating that reality politics is taking over. The shock really has significantly shaken tthe complacency in politics and therefore I am cautiously optimistic that any attempt to interfere with ths decision will be seen as suicidal.

However that is only my opinion and I do agree, there may be such an attempt and therefore you are right to be wary. But currently based on all I can see I do think the politicans have recognised their mistake and are vey unlikely to challenge the process.

Theresa May was a vocal supporter of the REMAIN campaign, let's not forget.

Quoted from another thread :

==========

grumbledoak said:

Fittster said:

What if the winner of next election said we should remain? Would the parties democratic mandate trump the referendum result.

Theresa May, today:
"First, Brexit means Brexit. The campaign was fought, the vote was held, turnout was high, and the public gave their verdict. There must be no attempts to remain inside the EU, no attempts to rejoin it through the back door, and no second referendum. The country voted to leave the European Union, and it is the duty of the Government and of Parliament to make sure we do just that. ..."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ther...

Nice sound bites, however :

Link also said:

The home secretary, who failed in her campaign for the UK to remain in the EU

Politicians will say anything to get you to vote them in..

Mario149 said:

You won't get elected leader if you say you're going to backtrack on the ref, it's political suicide at this point.

Exactly.

============

I don't really know what Gove is about but to be honest May at the controls fills me with fear as I've no doubt she and her OH will be delighted at being able to continue privatising the police and prisons unimpeded in partner with G4S.

[tumble dryer]

I can't stand the woman. Certainly not in her current role, complete antagonist, smirky, smug, and you couldn't beat her with a stick.

Maggie all over.




Probably what the country needs right now...

[tumble dryer]

tumble dryer said:

I can't stand the woman. Certainly not in her current role, complete antagonist, smirky, smug, and you couldn't beat her with a stick.

Maggie all over.




Probably what the country needs right now...

Also, I'd like to know the real reason for her low profile during the campaign.

[Axionknight]

tumble dryer said:

Also, I'd like to know the real reason for her low profile during the campaign.

Expediency, plain and simple.

[GoodOlBoy]

Axionknight said:

Expediency, plain and simple.

You're probably right.

On the other hand not everyone, including some politicians, were absolutely committed to either the Remain or leave camp.

Many were only marginally to one side of the argument or the other.

[Steffan]

Well it would appear that the dust has begun to settle on by far the biggest upset and change in British politics in the last 70 odd (very odd) years. I do agree with  the comments of All that Jazz and Axionknight and tumbledryer.  GoodOlBoy rounds it off pretty well I think, and we must all make a note that Theresa May, like Cameron and Osbourne,  ( Oh! I do hope Osborne goes!), has a distinctly dodgy side.

This is bad news and it ought to be stopped!  It has gone on all through Mays Ministerial role under our noses and all we can do is draw attention to the parliamentary abuse going on. No doubt she looks forward to a comfortable pension. Totally unacceptable.

Gove is driving his campaign on pretty effectively judging from the Media coverage. However I have serious concerns with the UK media currently, who seem to be driving the action on rather than reporting the action. I think there is definitely, repeated talking down of the markets  and concentration upon the difficulties is all to easy! think the coverage is clearly skewed. 

My partner predicted to me and our immediate neighbours on  Thursday, before the vote, that Boris would achieve the Brexit vote but that he would also, be effectively prevented from leading the party and would keep a low profile for a while, to get over the shock.. 

So what I ask myself is she doing an old codger like  me? Answers on a postcard please. Not the first time ths has happened to us, nor I suspect the last!!oo

Some form of realistic timetable would be good! But this will take time. Corbny and the Muck Spreaders (my nickname for labour currently), still  seem to be continuing with their lunacy which will  result in a great deal of fuss and general political back stabbings (Not literally physically).

I really do think the Politicians are actually beginning to become more aware that there is life outside the Islington mob, and I do think that next government will pursue the exit of the UK.  But until we see the evidence of the major changes coming onto the position of the UK we must remain vigilante!

[YankeePorker]

With respect Steffan, you're posting on the wrong thread. Whether it is May or Gove, and whether Corbyn gets shafted or not, these are not the issues that will screw up the € worse than the EU have already done, now that Brexit has been announced.

However, what is happening with the Italian banks and the emergency funding organised under crisis rules to stop Angela's complaints, these are things that could really sink the ship! After 10 years of stagnation I think that the Italians are not far away from a decisive event where they (or the rest of the €zone) have to make a choice.

Add to that the rerun of the Austrian election post-Brexit. Maybe this time the extreme right will find the 1% that they need to take power and the hold the referendum that they are promising.

I actually feel a bit sorry for the € elite at the moment. They already had enough subjects for their talking shop with the €, Greece, Turkey & refugees and immigration, Trump, Putin, Syria, the Ukraine, etc. Throwing Brexit in the middle of all that with a delayed fuse while the UK screw around with internal politics seems almost cruel.

[GoodOlBoy]

YankeePorker said:

.

I actually feel a bit sorry for the € elite at the moment. They already had enough subjects for their talking shop with the €, Greece, Turkey & refugees and immigration, Trump, Putin, Syria, the Ukraine, etc. Throwing Brexit in the middle of all that with a delayed fuse while the UK screw around with internal politics seems almost cruel.

I feel a bit sorry for them too. Perhaps they'd be better off taking early retirement and enjoying their EU pensions

[Mr Whippy]

If we're not on our way out of the EU in 12 months, I'm sure UKIP will be getting a huge swell in support, while the Con/Lab usual suspects will lose yet more credibility.

I'm fairly certain Con/Lab will take us out of the EU. On balance it's the best way to keep their jobs, and ultimately that is what they clearly care about the most.

[craig7l]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/imf-takes-cool-tone-port...

Even the nice guys of Europe surreptitiously sticking one to the IMF.

[Steffan]

Mr Whippy said:

If we're not on our way out of the EU in 12 months, I'm sure UKIP will be getting a huge swell in support, while the Con/Lab usual suspects will lose yet more credibility.

I'm fairly certain Con/Lab will take us out of the EU. On balance it's the best way to keep their jobs, and ultimately that is what they clearly care about the most.

I think the EU has being trying (unsuccessfully) to hide just how seriously this growing problem is steadily dragging the Euro down. The use of billions of QE Euro's being given to totally insolvent states, within the EU is a downright disgrace  and a fraudulent act upon the EU monetary system. Lending Billions to a wholly insolvent Sovereign state cannot and will not keep the state afloat. It is and has aways been outright crookery. 

I do agree with Mr Whippy that unless the UK government reacts correctly to this very substantial confirmation that the UK voters want out, then deeply serious consequences would follow. I am inclined to think that the government has now seen that risk, and recognised their limits, and will therefore create the necessary negotiation team to enact the necessary legislative program. Otherwise as Mr Whippy says there would be an annihilation of the current politicians at the next ballot in the UK!

This is going to take literally years to sort out and even a committed and well qualified team of real masters of the subject would need to be sustained for years in that endeavour to be successful in resolving this problem on the best possible terms. Nicola Sturgeon recently demonstrated very effectively how little she understood of the attitude of the EU and the entrenched EU bureaucrats who will be trying to limit all the consequences to the EU. It seems to me that the UK would do well to resolve this amicably within three years. 

Realistically the various ballots in the Labour Party and the Conservative Party currently will take weeks to resolve. Possibly longer in the case of Labour who are now revisiting their joint and several headless chickens approach to Politics.  Who knows (or more importantly cares) where Labour is going?  A strong opposition is essential to Political stability, but I cannot see any hope from the current bunch of losers. Ensemble Apparatchiks do not make for effective free thinking politics.

The Tory party will conclude the current leadership challenges pretty quickly I think and there are certainly sufficient experienced politicians within this camp for an effective administration to be appointed. How things proceed then remain to be seen, but I am very hopeful that at least, the lesson has been learned of the consequences of failing to listen to the electorate on Europe!!

I therefore cannot see the Referendum being ignored, Cameron resigned on the announcement immediately upon hearing the shock result. That sets out how deeply seriously the shock was, to the Tories. As an aside i have heard odd rumours, that David Miliband  may be parachuted into Labour as a new possible candidate but I rather doubt even the current Labour party being that daft. I hope?

Lest anyone think I am championing the Tory party may I immediately confirm that  I have never voted Tory in my life. I do not like the Austerity program nor indeed do I like Tory  political thinking. I just find  the current machinations of the Labour party, uto be so totally and  utterly and consistently ridiculous that they have absolutely no place in grown up politics. 

The prospect of the madness currently being displayed within Labour is just beyond the pale IMO. Hopefully matters will become clearer as the months progress. 
L

[paulrockliffe]

GoodOlBoy said:

I feel a bit sorry for them too. Perhaps they'd be better off taking early retirement and enjoying their EU pensions

What's often missed is that when the whole rotten edifice comes crashing down..... there'll be no one left to pay these pensions. Euro denominated pensions with no Euro's to pay them in. That's the true motivation to keep things together.

It'll be telling to see whether during Brexit negotiations they try to make us pay for accrued liabilities.

[Gargamel]

Does anyone have any reliable figures for Italy Total debt vs GDP, is it still,growing? I know at one point they had a current account surplus, but I have a feeling That changed.

My Google fu is weak today

[Steffan]

Gargamel said:

Does anyone have any reliable figures for Italy Total debt vs GDP, is it still,growing? I know at one point they had a current account surplus, but I have a feeling That changed.

My Google fu is weak today

Any Good?

Italy Economic Outlook
June 28, 2016

According to revised data, the Italian economy expanded in Q1 2016. GDP recorded a modest 0.3% expansion, which was up slightly from the Q4 2015 result. While government consumption and fixed investment growth decelerated, private consumption growth was steady at Q4’s reading. The latest high-frequency data paint a mixed picture: industrial production recovered in April while the PMI fell in May. In the wake of the Brexit vote, the government is attempting to shore up the Italian financial sector with a sizeable cash injection designed to mitigate some of the immediate financial risks that have arisen. In the political sphere, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s center-left Democratic Party lost both Rome and Turin in 19 June mayoral elections, thus weakening Renzi’s leadership inside the party.
Italy Economy Data
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Population (million) 59.4 59.4 59.7 60.0 60.2
GDP per capita (EUR) 27,594 27,160 26,879 26,900 27,152
GDP (EUR bn) 1,638 1,613 1,604 1,613 1,636
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) 0.7 -2.9 -1.8 -0.3 0.6
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %) -0.7 -4.5 -2.7 -0.4 0.5
Consumption (annual variation in %) 0.0 -4.0 -2.4 0.6 0.9
Investment (annual variation in %) -1.7 -9.4 -6.6 -3.3 0.6
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %) 6.1 2.0 0.9 2.9 4.1
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %) 1.2 -8.3 -2.2 3.0 5.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 1.2 -6.3 -3.1 -0.7 1.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) -0.8 -1.7 -2.1 -1.1 0.8
Unemployment Rate 8.4 10.7 12.1 12.6 11.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -3.0 -2.9 -3.0 -2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP) 116 123 129 132 133
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop) 3.7 2.6 0.7 -0.1 0.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %) 2.9 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 4.8 3.6 -1.1 -1.5 -2.7
Policy Interest Rate (%) 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.05 0.05
Stock Market (annual variation in %) -25.2 7.8 16.6 0.2 12.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD) 1.30 1.32 1.38 1.21 1.09
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.11
Current Account (% of GDP) -3.1 -0.4 0.9 1.9 2.1
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) -50.4 -6.9 14.3 30.8 35.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)

It looks pretty poor to me? Having spent almost all of the last 18 months in Lucca in Italy it finitely appears to me that the Itakian economy really is in dire starts!!

Good point by Paulrockcliffe. It does underline the reality of the conseqences of the EU breaking up, tothe passengers on the gravy train. No wonder they are venemous!

[LongQ]

Given the way the "main" parties are scrapping internally at the moment it there any danger that the Lib Dims might start to look like an appealing alternative? Or, perhaps, the surprise survivors?

[stongle]

UK political infighting has little to do with collapse of the EU. Thread is going of topic.

Especially as the Euro's future is controlled by the ECB. Or rather would be unless we see a switch from Monetary to Fiscal policy. It's difficult to see how additional stimulus will improve the Eurozone, so common sense (often in short supply) might suggest another approach. I certainly think the UK needs to consider this post referendum result. Especially if you review the demographic of the majority leave voters - if you hadn't made it into the upper middle class / equity owners now; your pretty screwed.

Too early to tell for the UK, but the Eurozone needs radical restructure.

[Steffan]

stongle said:

UK political infighting has little to do with collapse of the EU. Thread is going of topic.

Especially as the Euro's future is controlled by the ECB. Or rather would be unless we see a switch from Monetary to Fiscal policy. It's difficult to see how additional stimulus will improve the Eurozone, so common sense (often in short supply) might suggest another approach. I certainly think the UK needs to consider this post referendum result. Especially if you review the demographic of the majority leave voters - if you hadn't made it into the upper middle class / equity owners now; your pretty screwed.

Too early to tell for the UK, but the Eurozone needs radical restructure.

I have received a communication suggesting that Nigel Farage is standing aside as UKIP leader.

If that is correct then it is interesting and will open up possibilities for a less aggressive, approach, I think. Hence my post.

I am delighted to see a number of new contributors on here . Aways good to have different views.

I will reply to the off topic suggestion later today, but I am on a train currently and poor signal and v old Mk 1 eyepad is not at all reliable

[Gargamel]

Thanks for the Italy numbers

It is the investment numbers that are probably the most worrying of those.

I think my feeling is that there is a stagnation in Southern Europe, they have (proved) to be able to hold on far longer than rational economics could ever have foreseen, and that holding pattern is political. The Eurozone "whatever it takes" as a least proved to be a promise that was kept, even in extremely stressful times.

But in the longer run, no economy can thrive without investment, and those numbers show the decline.

This stagnation of investment, inflation, creeping debt and population growth (ie higher costs) are all signs that the mid/long term remains a problem for the Eurozone.

We go back to, as a concept the Eurozone is unworkable, politics have managed the differences in economic speeds to date, but events can wreck the best of intentions, where is the plan to reform, re invigorate and adapt to the changing world. (Eg a perpetual overspend against convergence criteria by France and a large and persistent current account surplus from Germany)