Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

[bigweb]

Surely this makes Deutschebank a good medium term investment?

[Gargamel]

-Pete- said:

s it written in the treaty what the punishment is for failure to comply? For example, were the UK to declare that it will no longer follow a european directive, or refuse to allow free access to eu citizens without a job, what would be the outcome? Or is this all 'tbd' by the european parliament?

Both France and Germany are already in breach of European rules around economic convergence, all the laughably title "growth and stability pact"

France has run more than a 3% budget deficit I think since...well...ever really, certainly 2008. Germany has a capital inflow via its balance of trade surplus that is I think about 8% higher than permissable under the pact.

Neither country has yet been fined, nor had any sanction taken. So I think it is a fair bet that whilst there would be serious squealing from the south, if Germany did step in on state aid for Deutsche it would probably be OK.

Plus one would imagine Italy and Spain, would STFU pretty quick when they realise the depth of the rabbit hole for European banks.

[Andy Zarse]

bigweb said:

Surely this makes Deutschebank a good medium term investment?

Hmmm... only to the extent that RBS or Lloyds was in 2009.

[Steffan]

Andy Zarse said:

bigweb said:

Surely this makes Deutschebank a good medium term investment?

Hmmm... only to the extent that RBS or Lloyds was in 2009.

I do think that really hits the spot. I understand that many of the EU countries are playing heavyweight ducks and drakes with the less than honest admission of the reality of their actual circumstances., by delibertely fiddling their returns but that is in essence, precsely why this cannot go on IMO. As Andy Zaerse suggests Deuthshce Bank are as about as attractive an investment as Lloyds and RBS were in the banking crash of 2007. Repulsive, describes the position best I think?

The more Sovereign states there are delibertely hiding the perilous circumstances of their economes the harder it will be to actually prevent massive collapses within the EU. Germany will survive pretty well any difficulties but Greece, still a member despite being totally bankrupt on any reasonable assessment, and France, which is a total dead duck many times over, Italy which is teetering on the edge of totoal economic collapse, and the Italian banks which are utterly insolvent, as are the Cypriot, Portuguese abd Spanish economies who are also, teetering on the edge of collapse, is not a mixture which the EU can actually manage or deal with effectively. That is why this is o desperately serious. Millions of lives in Europe are at risk!

This whole deadful business is steadily reaching the point where an almighty comprehensive collapse is coming up in Europe. The more we can distance ourselves and become entry self governing and self reliant, the better for the whole UK. This inevtable EU disastetr, has been coming up for yers and no amount of QE or Draghi strokes are going to prevent it.

[LongQ]

Andy Zarse said:

bigweb said:

Surely this makes Deutschebank a good medium term investment?

Hmmm... only to the extent that RBS or Lloyds was in 2009.

Umm.

I suppose it could all be part of a plan to mess with the US "fine" process and make use of any available de-stabilisation in a US election year.

But then what would be the real motivation for Commerzbank to join in the fun?

[Steffan]

LongQ said:

Andy Zarse said:

bigweb said:

Surely this makes Deutschebank a good medium term investment?

Hmmm... only to the extent that RBS or Lloyds was in 2009.

Umm.

I suppose it could all be part of a plan to mess with the US "fine" process and make use of any available de-stabilisation in a US election year.

But then what would be the real motivation for Commerzbank to join in the fun?

Just looking at the closing comments on the current position for Deutsche Bank and these headlines from Zerohedge and others do suggest a fair but of troube, see:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/29/deutsche-bank-share...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-29/run-begin...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-29/ecb-refus...

As readers of this thread will be aware I am no lover of hedge funds.

However given the wholly exceptional swinging penalties raining down upon DB it does seem as if the markets are highly doubtful of a successful outcom?

What do others think?

[Welshbeef]

Why do people say France is a dead duck economy? It's the 4th worlds largest GDP then Germany then china and finally USA.

[turbobloke]

Welshbeef said:

Why do people say France is a dead duck economy? It's the 4th worlds largest GDP then Germany then china and finally USA.

4th or 5th or 6th depending on Japan being included and metrics/calculation method.

http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-pr...

http://www.cityam.com/244103/eu-referendum-no-uk-e...

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e9ba29a0-d37c-11e5-829b-...

[Welshbeef]

turbobloke said:

Welshbeef said:

Why do people say France is a dead duck economy? It's the 4th worlds largest GDP then Germany then china and finally USA.

4th or 5th or 6th depending on Japan being included and metrics/calculation method.

http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-pr...

http://www.cityam.com/244103/eu-referendum-no-uk-e...

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e9ba29a0-d37c-11e5-829b-...

None the less they are more productive than the UK and have a higher GDP. So if they are a dead duck economy then what does that say about us.

[-Pete-]

Welshbeef said:

Why do people say France is a dead duck economy? It's the 4th worlds largest GDP then Germany then china and finally USA.

Lazy, over-unionized, too many holidays, expect to retire young on close to full salary, massive youth unemployment, failure to integrate other cultures, overly reliant on EU subsidies, etc etc.

[FN2TypeR]

Welshbeef said:

None the less they are more productive than the UK and have a higher GDP. So if they are a dead duck economy then what does that say about us.

Their public expenditure is vast when compared to their GDP, about 56% (UK circa 48%), that makes them one of the highest in the world, their labour laws are counter business and incredibly intrusive too - even if companies up sticks post Brexit France will be the last place in Western Europe that they go to, Germany and Ireland, yes, France? No chance.


Productivity, that's a toughy IMO, are you saying that if you uprooted a factory in England and moved it to France it would be inherently more productive? How are these figures calculated?

[Steffan]

-Pete- said:

Welshbeef said:

Why do people say France is a dead duck economy? It's the 4th worlds largest GDP then Germany then china and finally USA.

Lazy, over-unionized, too many holidays, expect to retire young on close to full salary, massive youth unemployment, failure to integrate other cultures, overly reliant on EU subsidies, etc etc.

Seems a very fair assessment of the reality of why the French economy has been steadily heading towards collapse for some decades. Regrettably the French have taken more and more and earned less and less decade after decade after decade. Really on the cusp of National insolvency currently. Having the numbskull supposed Socialist , Hollande, making matters worse and promising More and More when in fact the French economy supports Less and Less is just the final nail in the French coffin!

There are a LOT of skeletons in the French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Greek (!!) and now German (in part) economies and the crunch is unquestionably coming. The EU dream has gone with the repeated bail outs needed time after time from failing states within fthe EU. Ths is NOT a sustainable union and the cracks will inevitably get worse and worse. Crunch time.

[turbobloke]

Welshbeef said:

turbobloke said:

Welshbeef said:

Why do people say France is a dead duck economy? It's the 4th worlds largest GDP then Germany then china and finally USA.

4th or 5th or 6th depending on Japan being included and metrics/calculation method.

http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-pr...

http://www.cityam.com/244103/eu-referendum-no-uk-e...

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e9ba29a0-d37c-11e5-829b-...

None the less they are more productive than the UK and have a higher GDP. So if they are a dead duck economy then what does that say about us.

Recent comments about France refer to direction of travel rather than a snapshot which only applies for a particular quarter and even then is subject to revision. We've been heading in the right direction since Broon the Meddler was booted out.

[PRTVR]

FN2TypeR said:

Welshbeef said:

None the less they are more productive than the UK and have a higher GDP. So if they are a dead duck economy then what does that say about us.

Their public expenditure is vast when compared to their GDP, about 56% (UK circa 48%), that makes them one of the highest in the world, their labour laws are counter business and incredibly intrusive too - even if companies up sticks post Brexit France will be the last place in Western Europe that they go to, Germany and Ireland, yes, France? No chance.


Productivity, that's a toughy IMO, are you saying that if you uprooted a factory in England and moved it to France it would be inherently more productive? How are these figures calculated?

The fact of the matter on productivity are that in France they are scared of employing people in case they are stuck with them,this leads to greater mechanisation and productivity along with higher unemployment, it would appear as you say that their labour laws are responsible for higher unemployment.

[FN2TypeR]

PRTVR said:

FN2TypeR said:

Welshbeef said:

None the less they are more productive than the UK and have a higher GDP. So if they are a dead duck economy then what does that say about us.

Their public expenditure is vast when compared to their GDP, about 56% (UK circa 48%), that makes them one of the highest in the world, their labour laws are counter business and incredibly intrusive too - even if companies up sticks post Brexit France will be the last place in Western Europe that they go to, Germany and Ireland, yes, France? No chance.


Productivity, that's a toughy IMO, are you saying that if you uprooted a factory in England and moved it to France it would be inherently more productive? How are these figures calculated?

The fact of the matter on productivity are that in France they are scared of employing people in case they are stuck with them,this leads to greater mechanisation and productivity along with higher unemployment, it would appear as you say that their labour laws are responsible for higher unemployment.

50 employees is the magic number I believe, once you breach that barrier the regulatory requirements placed on your business grow dramatically, I read an anecdotal piece a while ago that stated the costs of operation would increase by at least 4%, which might not seem by a lot but it's certainly going to be cause for consideration for smaller businesses and a report by the London School o' Economics showed that breaching the 50 mark was akin to increasing everybodies wages by 5-10%, the report said there was "a strong disincentive to grow", damning words indeed.

Edited by FN2TypeR on Friday 30th September 07:56

[maffski]

Andy Zarse said:

I thought this short blog was an interesting perspective on Deutschebank; in the st but not terminal.

https://medium.com/@dsquareddigest/a-quick-deutsch...

Hmm, says DB is fine because it's solvent. But it doesn't mention liquidity at all, isn't that what usually does for a bank?

Looking at ZeroHedge DB has a chunk of liquidity at the moment ( circa 200bn) and much of it is retail banking deposits rather than borrowing, so I'd guess it depends if the public think their deposits are safe - if there is a run on the retail bank than things would go south very quickly?

[Andy Zarse]

maffski said:

Andy Zarse said:

I thought this short blog was an interesting perspective on Deutschebank; in the st but not terminal.

https://medium.com/@dsquareddigest/a-quick-deutsch...

Hmm, says DB is fine because it's solvent. But it doesn't mention liquidity at all, isn't that what usually does for a bank?

Looking at ZeroHedge DB has a chunk of liquidity at the moment ( circa 200bn) and much of it is retail banking deposits rather than borrowing, so I'd guess it depends if the public think their deposits are safe - if there is a run on the retail bank than things would go south very quickly?

Yes, and very quickly. You can't really plot counterparty confidence on a graph.

[LongQ]

Greece has been somewhat out of the news for a while.

This story of pensioners attacking a Police Bus suggests that things are still not going at all well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37544416

[turbobloke]

LongQ said:

Greece has been somewhat out of the news for a while.

This story of pensioners attacking a Police Bus suggests that things are still not going at all well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37544416

The BBC report didn't mention that the pensioners were chanting "More EU! More EU!" as they were treated to a dose of 2-chlorobenzalmalononitrile - for some obvious reason. Das Projekt continues to play a blinder in so many ways.

[Driller]

Pound hits 31 year low!

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/business-37520631

Blimey sounds a bit ominous, wonder if the end is nigh?