Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 3]

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Discussion

wc98

10,413 posts

141 months

Monday 21st May 2018
quotequote all
Digga said:
There is something about the serial short-termism of democratic governance that concerns me. IMHO one of the reasons the German economy has fared consistently well is their longer-term planning and fiscal responsibility.
to be fair if a government is up to the task as the germans had, it will get the time for long term planning. the downside is every now and then we get an entire house full of incompetents as we have now.

tumble dryer

2,018 posts

128 months

Monday 21st May 2018
quotequote all
wc98 said:
Digga said:
There is something about the serial short-termism of democratic governance that concerns me. IMHO one of the reasons the German economy has fared consistently well is their longer-term planning and fiscal responsibility.
to be fair if a government is up to the task as the germans had, it will get the time for long term planning. the downside is every now and then we get an entire house full of incompetents as we have now.
Scarily so, at this present time. Puppets fulfilling a role, achieving puppet things.

Digga

40,339 posts

284 months

Tuesday 22nd May 2018
quotequote all
tumble dryer said:
wc98 said:
Digga said:
There is something about the serial short-termism of democratic governance that concerns me. IMHO one of the reasons the German economy has fared consistently well is their longer-term planning and fiscal responsibility.
to be fair if a government is up to the task as the germans had, it will get the time for long term planning. the downside is every now and then we get an entire house full of incompetents as we have now.
Scarily so, at this present time. Puppets fulfilling a role, achieving puppet things.
Only the present?

Looking at the state of UK roads and the abject lack of investment in the infrastructure, we've been plagued with spineless, clueless and sightless governments for decades.

LongQ

13,864 posts

234 months

Tuesday 22nd May 2018
quotequote all
Digga said:
tumble dryer said:
wc98 said:
Digga said:
There is something about the serial short-termism of democratic governance that concerns me. IMHO one of the reasons the German economy has fared consistently well is their longer-term planning and fiscal responsibility.
to be fair if a government is up to the task as the germans had, it will get the time for long term planning. the downside is every now and then we get an entire house full of incompetents as we have now.
Scarily so, at this present time. Puppets fulfilling a role, achieving puppet things.
Only the present?

Looking at the state of UK roads and the abject lack of investment in the infrastructure, we've been plagued with spineless, clueless and sightless governments for decades.
True.

Unless, of course, the plans they have mean that much of the infrastructure will not need investment. Notably UK roads.

It seems that Gove is going for diesels again and now tyres too.

Now if they had a government controlled all electric future in mind with vehicles (and indeed travel) as a utility rather than leisure exercise the requirements for the national infrastructure might be very different to how we might envisage it today.

I don;t think the country can afford to both maintain the present and build the future when the requirements are likely thought to be so different that maintenance of now offers now cost or development support benefit to future investments.

Rovinghawk

13,300 posts

159 months

Tuesday 22nd May 2018
quotequote all
LongQ said:
I don;t think the country can afford to both maintain the present and build the future when the requirements are likely thought to be so different that maintenance of now offers now cost or development support benefit to future investments.
Que?????

Digga

40,339 posts

284 months

Tuesday 22nd May 2018
quotequote all
LongQ said:
Now if they had a government controlled all electric future in mind with vehicles...
I really cannot see that being a reality anywhere and certainly (for economies of scale, to develop the technology, if no other reason) not in the UK before anywhere else.

LongQ said:
I don;t think the country can afford to both maintain the present and build the future when the requirements are likely thought to be so different that maintenance of now offers now cost or development support benefit to future investments.
I cannot afford not too, it just hasn't fully realised it yet. Westminster runs on taxes generated by people who need to shift goods and services within the UK and, predominantly and for the foreseeable future, that means road. They can blithely ignore the RUK and keep piling money in to the city, on the vaguely justifiable metric of tax-take, but that ignores the costs of jobs lost in the provinces and the potential welfare bills.

LongQ

13,864 posts

234 months

Tuesday 22nd May 2018
quotequote all
Digga said:
LongQ said:
Now if they had a government controlled all electric future in mind with vehicles...
I really cannot see that being a reality anywhere and certainly (for economies of scale, to develop the technology, if no other reason) not in the UK before anywhere else.
It almost certainly shouldn't be the reality anywhere if logic should prevail. But will it?

Digga said:
LongQ said:
I don;t think the country can afford to both maintain the present and build the future when the requirements are likely thought to be so different that maintenance of now offers now cost or development support benefit to future investments.
I cannot afford not too, it just hasn't fully realised it yet. Westminster runs on taxes generated by people who need to shift goods and services within the UK and, predominantly and for the foreseeable future, that means road. They can blithely ignore the RUK and keep piling money in to the city, on the vaguely justifiable metric of tax-take, but that ignores the costs of jobs lost in the provinces and the potential welfare bills.
Again, it almost certainly shouldn't be the reality anywhere if logic should prevail. But will it?

They think making all motorways "Smart" and building HS2 will be enough.

Highly visible but highly disruptive medium term developments that will all require repair and updating soon after they are finished and are competing for investment with electric vehicle charging infrastructure and a wet political classes green dreams.

Politicians only exist to change things and leave legacies with their name attached to them. It's a syndrome that seems to have become more prevalent in the modern era. Especially in the UK as its independent power and influence has waned in deference to the EU and it's worldwide presence has been vacated in deference to the UN.

The politicians in Westminster have very little influence to wield and now act rather like local government used to act 2 or 3 decades ago. But they have most of the tax budget in their hands making democracy an ever more distant possibility.

One could of course debate whether that matters.

Gargamel

14,996 posts

262 months

Saturday 26th May 2018
quotequote all
Well the Italians appear to be squaring up for a fight. Appointing a Eurosceptic Economic Minister and describing the Euro as a German cage...

All over by Autumn?

Murph7355

37,752 posts

257 months

Saturday 26th May 2018
quotequote all
Gargamel said:
Well the Italians appear to be squaring up for a fight. Appointing a Eurosceptic Economic Minister and describing the Euro as a German cage...

All over by Autumn?
Not a chance.

Fuss and bluster from the Italians. They're right in many respects, but they have no chance to exit the cage.

anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 26th May 2018
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Murph7355 said:
Gargamel said:
Well the Italians appear to be squaring up for a fight. Appointing a Eurosceptic Economic Minister and describing the Euro as a German cage...

All over by Autumn?
Not a chance.

Fuss and bluster from the Italians. They're right in many respects, but they have no chance to exit the cage.
Quite. Although pretending to be, or actually being, economically suicidal is quite a good position to negotiate with the EU from! That said leaving the Euro would be rather like trying to cure a persistent headache by shooting yourself in the head.

Gargamel

14,996 posts

262 months

Saturday 26th May 2018
quotequote all
fblm said:
Quite. Although pretending to be, or actually being, economically suicidal is quite a good position to negotiate with the EU from! That said leaving the Euro would be rather like trying to cure a persistent headache by shooting yourself in the head.
Think the game is to manouver German to either balance trade or write of the debts...

Gecko1978

9,726 posts

158 months

Saturday 26th May 2018
quotequote all
Debt write off seems most logical aim. Simply write off our debt or we default. Italy will have seen what's happend in Greece and will not want to be salves to debt so force the hand of the EU. The EU cares more about the EU project than the member states so will bend, break etc its own rules to keep the EU dream alive it will not want another exiting country.

Rovinghawk

13,300 posts

159 months

Saturday 26th May 2018
quotequote all
Gecko1978 said:
Debt write off seems most logical aim. Simply write off our debt or we default.
And after the write-off/default please carry on lending as per the past?

Gecko1978

9,726 posts

158 months

Saturday 26th May 2018
quotequote all
Rovinghawk said:
Gecko1978 said:
Debt write off seems most logical aim. Simply write off our debt or we default.
And after the write-off/default please carry on lending as per the past?
Exactly that....its not logical economically but the EU despite what many believe is not about a stable unified europe its furthering the EU as an entity. So yeah write off x and then lend y in return for certain fiscal controls no doubt.

Gandahar

9,600 posts

129 months

Sunday 27th May 2018
quotequote all
How long has this thread been going on and how many volumes ?

The answer is no. Some dumb feck years past asked if the end was nigh. Trying to make it was going to be washed up on the rocks compared to proper currencies such as pounds shillings and tuppences.

Guess what?

Can someone in charge at PH halt this xenophobic madness ?

blahjestersillyjester

grantone

640 posts

174 months

Sunday 27th May 2018
quotequote all
I'm in Italy at the moment having a lovely holiday. I have noticed 3 things:

They do seem to have a fair number of immigrants just idling on the streets. Not threatening, just sort of making Florence & Pisa look a bit more messy.

Every public building seems to have 3 flags over the entrance; the Italian flag in the middle, a local flag on the right and the EU stars on the left. It's a bit in your face seeing the EU flag everywhere, I don't know if this is a sign of love, or something that would wind the locals up.

The ECB appear to have been very forgiving with Italy's debt terms through their bond purchases. I found lots of internet links showing that the average term of the debt has gone from ~4 years to ~7 and the interest gone down quite significantly. Italian debt interest payments as a % of their government revenue actually looks historically quite low at ~10%. I don't know if I would throw that away for an inflationary Lira in the hope it might solve Southern unemployment. I might threaten it though to try to get even better debt terms.

Gandahar

9,600 posts

129 months

Sunday 27th May 2018
quotequote all
grantone said:
I'm in Italy at the moment having a lovely holiday. I have noticed 3 things:

They do seem to have a fair number of immigrants just idling on the streets. Not threatening, just sort of making Florence & Pisa look a bit more messy.

Every public building seems to have 3 flags over the entrance; the Italian flag in the middle, a local flag on the right and the EU stars on the left. It's a bit in your face seeing the EU flag everywhere, I don't know if this is a sign of love, or something that would wind the locals up.

The ECB appear to have been very forgiving with Italy's debt terms through their bond purchases. I found lots of internet links showing that the average term of the debt has gone from ~4 years to ~7 and the interest gone down quite significantly. Italian debt interest payments as a % of their government revenue actually looks historically quite low at ~10%. I don't know if I would throw that away for an inflationary Lira in the hope it might solve Southern unemployment. I might threaten it though to try to get even better debt terms.
Guess what, the end is not nigh for the euro, even after your holiday jaunt


grantone

640 posts

174 months

Sunday 27th May 2018
quotequote all
Gandahar said:
Guess what, the end is not nigh for the euro, even after your holiday jaunt
I agree, I thought that was sort of obvious from my last observation.

You should join in with the discussion, the Euro can be a quite interesting topic with all the weird back end stuff that has to happen to make it work without direct cash transfers from the strong regions. It's an experiment that is playing out live and might be a blueprint for future regional currency unions (East African Community the one I'm watching). You don't have to agree with the thread title!

davepoth

29,395 posts

200 months

Sunday 27th May 2018
quotequote all
Italy's president has refused to allow a "Euro"sceptic economy minister, so the PM-elect has effectively resigned before having anything to resign from, sparking calls for a new election.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44275010

Interesting times.

rdjohn

6,186 posts

196 months

Monday 28th May 2018
quotequote all
Murph7355 said:
Gargamel said:
Well the Italians appear to be squaring up for a fight. Appointing a Eurosceptic Economic Minister and describing the Euro as a German cage...

All over by Autumn?
Not a chance.

Fuss and bluster from the Italians. They're right in many respects, but they have no chance to exit the cage.
David Smith provides a nicely balanced argument

http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002262.html#more

More often than not, he is usually right