Beta on the US Government shutting down? I think yes.

[braddo]

Wills2 said:

New POD said:

I was at a wedding in Ohio, the other week, and told every American that I met, how wonderful it is that 65 million people in the UK, get free health care, regardless of their ability to play, and reminded them that 50 million people in the USA have no access to 'meaningful' heathcare, and 5 million people are homeless because they have been sued for hospital bills, they can't afford.

I ask them to explain how a country with so many churches and so many Christians allows the poor to die needlessly.

They all think I'm a communist extremist and full of dangerous ideas.

Whilst I think it's great, the cost is eye watering and now stands at 25% of the total UK tax take, imagine we didn't have one and 85% of people had health insurance, I'm not sure it would get through our parliament either.

Alternatively, look at healthcare expenditure as a % of GDP. The US spends far more (like 50%-100% more) on healthcare than the rest of the G8 countries. And that still leaves out over 20 million people!

[TTmonkey]

braddo said:

Wills2 said:

New POD said:

I was at a wedding in Ohio, the other week, and told every American that I met, how wonderful it is that 65 million people in the UK, get free health care, regardless of their ability to play, and reminded them that 50 million people in the USA have no access to 'meaningful' heathcare, and 5 million people are homeless because they have been sued for hospital bills, they can't afford.

I ask them to explain how a country with so many churches and so many Christians allows the poor to die needlessly.

They all think I'm a communist extremist and full of dangerous ideas.

Whilst I think it's great, the cost is eye watering and now stands at 25% of the total UK tax take, imagine we didn't have one and 85% of people had health insurance, I'm not sure it would get through our parliament either.

Alternatively, look at healthcare expenditure as a % of GDP. The US spends far more (like 50%-100% more) on healthcare than the rest of the G8 countries. And that still leaves out over 20 million people!

Add to this that our NHS is sh*te. My father in law fell out of bed in hospital a few weeks ago, having suffered a stroke. The nurses recorded the time of the event as 'between 00.30 and 07.30'. So they have no idea how long he was lying on the floor before he was found.

[anonymous-user]

Art0ir said:

Will QE be affected by the debt ceiling, given it's a Fed exercise rather than anything to do with the Treasury?

To be honest I'm not 100% sure other than the Fed won't begin to taper until they're satisfied the conditions are improving with specific focus on the jobs data. Bill Gross who is probably the largest bond trader in the world sees this happening in Dec. He also thinks buying t bills is liking picking pennies off the ground given his certainty there won't be a default.

[Art0ir]

Flipfloptrader said:

Art0ir said:

Will QE be affected by the debt ceiling, given it's a Fed exercise rather than anything to do with the Treasury?

To be honest I'm not 100% sure other than the Fed won't begin to taper until they're satisfied the conditions are improving with specific focus on the jobs data. Bill Gross who is probably the largest bond trader in the world sees this happening in Dec. He also thinks buying t bills is liking picking pennies off the ground given his certainty there won't be a default.

My point was the stock market is more reliant on QE from the Fed rather than Treasury expenditure, so if the Fed is unaffected by the debt ceiling, will the stock market notice?

[anonymous-user]

Art0ir said:

My point was the stock market is more reliant on QE from the Fed rather than Treasury expenditure, so if the Fed is unaffected by the debt ceiling, will the stock market notice?

Well if you look at the VIX there isn't any pricing of a default at all. Thus if there is a resolution I don't expect to see a big rally in the equities. There may be a pop of 1-2% but would be surprised to see a bigger move than that. However if they do default, could well see a sharp drop initially.

[Derek Smith]

skyrover said:

On the contrary you could argue that this is democracy in action...

Democracy is not happening, and there is no action. The Obama Care was voted on by both houses. Indeed, Obama was voted in when this was his main (and only?) substantial change. It is, apparently, what the people want. The current method of the republicans to defeat it is undemocratic. They are using a procedure for something it was not intended for. There is no mandate for this.

[Stu R]

Deal struck apparently.

Looking forward to seeing what the dollar does.

[BryanUsrey]

Stu R said:

Deal struck apparently.

Looking forward to seeing what the dollar does.

Hope to god it does good. I need to transfer some money. Some rare whiskys are calling my name.

[Impasse]

So my bet that Texas would have been the first state to declare independence was a waste of $50 then?

[Jimbeaux]

Derek Smith said:

skyrover said:

On the contrary you could argue that this is democracy in action...

Democracy is not happening, and there is no action. The Obama Care was voted on by both houses. Indeed, Obama was voted in when this was his main (and only?) substantial change. It is, apparently, what the people want. The current method of the republicans to defeat it is undemocratic. They are using a procedure for something it was not intended for. There is no mandate for this.

It has not been about Obamacare alone. It is about putting reforms in place to curb deficit spending.

[Jimbeaux]

Derek Smith said:

supersingle said:

If I'd been one of those Americans I'd have polititely asked you to ps off and worry about your own crumbling nation.

lots of yanks believe in personal responsibility over big government largesse. That's their prerogative.

Whether this country is crumbling or not is hardly the point. The problem is that democracy seems to be failing in the USA. When a small group of politicians can shut down a government as a means to turn over a law that has already been passed then I think it goes beyond personal responsibility.

It seems some republicans have taken a leaf out of the suicide bombers' book: do it my way or everyone goes down.

From what I can see there is real concern that an ally, in more ways than one, is suffering considerable damage from a minority, one apparently brain dead.

Wasn't it an American who, when asked what he thought when he saw two trains heading towards one-another along a single track rail line, said: "I thought that's a funny way to run a railroad." Change the last word to country and you have the current situation in a nutshell. Nut being the word.

There are two portions to this in the Constitution. One, a law is passed; another, the Congress does not have to fund said law. This has happened in the past with let well known legislation.

[Jimbeaux]

supersingle said:

New POD said:

I was at a wedding in Ohio, the other week, and told every American that I met, how wonderful it is that 65 million people in the UK, get free health care, regardless of their ability to play, and reminded them that 50 million people in the USA have no access to 'meaningful' heathcare, and 5 million people are homeless because they have been sued for hospital bills, they can't afford.

I ask them to explain how a country with so many churches and so many Christians allows the poor to die needlessly.

They all think I'm a communist extremist and full of dangerous ideas.

If I'd been one of those Americans I'd have polititely asked you to ps off and worry about your own crumbling nation.

lots of yanks believe in personal responsibility over big government largesse. That's their prerogative.

You may be happy to know that all of those churches, etc. do work. Charity in this nation gives more than some governments combined.....to our own and overseas. On another note, it is very difficult to forclose, etc on someone for medical bills, there are many safeguards against that. I know you keep hearing that, but you may want to think for yourself a bit here.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Thursday 17th October 14:38

[randlemarcus]

Jimbeaux said:

There are two portions to this in the Constitution. One, a law is passed; another, the Congress does not have to fund said law. This has happened in the past with let well known legislation.

And seems not wholly unlike our system, where a law had to pass both houses to become statute. If I was a betting man, I'd put money on Obama looking closely at our Parliament Act, but I'd hope this would be wildly Unconstitutional.

From this side of the pond, it seems that most of what has actually been affected is erm, a few shut parks. I presume individual states have continued to provide most local and state services?

[Jimbeaux]

randlemarcus said:

Jimbeaux said:

There are two portions to this in the Constitution. One, a law is passed; another, the Congress does not have to fund said law. This has happened in the past with let well known legislation.

And seems not wholly unlike our system, where a law had to pass both houses to become statute. If I was a betting man, I'd put money on Obama looking closely at our Parliament Act, but I'd hope this would be wildly Unconstitutional.

From this side of the pond, it seems that most of what has actually been affected is erm, a few shut parks. I presume individual states have continued to provide most local and state services?

You presume correctly. It is a fact that it cost more to close those parks, etc than it would have to leave them open. All politics.

[Silent1]

TTmonkey said:

Add to this that our NHS is sh*te. My father in law fell out of bed in hospital a few weeks ago, having suffered a stroke. The nurses recorded the time of the event as 'between 00.30 and 07.30'. So they have no idea how long he was lying on the floor before he was found.

It really isn't, you've had a bad experience but generally the care provided by the nhs is far better than other countries where you have to pay for it. Also if you think that the NHS isn't worth it why don't aren't you paying for your father in law to be in a private hospital?

[jeff m2]

Derek Smith said:

skyrover said:

On the contrary you could argue that this is democracy in action...

Democracy is not happening, and there is no action. The Obama Care was voted on by both houses. Indeed, Obama was voted in when this was his main (and only?) substantial change. It is, apparently, what the people want. The current method of the republicans to defeat it is undemocratic. They are using a procedure for something it was not intended for. There is no mandate for this.

The house is the legislature it is part of their mandate (your word) to enact, amend or toss out any law they see fit.
If this did not happen we would still have conscription and prohibition.

The law was rushed through, not even the democratic members had the opportunity to read it before voting. There are a lot of things in this act that many do not like.

The National debt is the problem, within the ACA are provisions for quite large tax credits which will/may cause a problem down the road. That coupled with the increase in entitlement spending does not produce a favourable cash flow scenario down the road.

People are starting to realise that the costs are being quoted taking into account the tax credit, but the tax credit is not applied 'til they file the their taxes the following year, they will have to pay the full amount each month.

(For the pendants, yes I know it possible to make an adjustment on a W4)

My solution, less lawyers.

[BlackLabel]

And it’s happened again.


“US government in shutdown after Senate fails to pass new budget”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/19/democra...

Edited by BlackLabel on Saturday 20th January 13:23