War with Russia
Discussion
ruggedscotty said:
This isnt going to end well - there will be a war - question is when. Im starting to think sooner rather than later. Putin isnt going to back down.
Well no, Putin isn't going to back down, because he cannot back down.One of the main legs of his genuine popularity at home is the perception that he won't roll over and allow himself to be humiliated like his immediate predecessors. Ergo he can't afford to appear to roll over and allow himself to be humiliated like his immediate predecessors.
Which undoubted fact casts a harsh light on the wisdom (or lack thereof) of the EU/US choosing to confront Putin over Ukraine. Moscow's been desparate to reach a negotiated settlement since March - albeit one that recognises Russian sovereignty over Crimea - it's the West that hasn't wanted a deal.
Doubly stupid as, even assuming that Putin does back down, his domestic popularity plummets, and Russia gets a new leader . . . who exactly do we think will replace him . . . someone less or more hard line?
Catastrophic misjudgement.
Octoposse said:
ell no, Putin isn't going to back down, because he cannot back down.
One of the main legs of his genuine popularity at home is the perception that he won't roll over and allow himself to be humiliated like his immediate predecessors. Ergo he can't afford to appear to roll over and allow himself to be humiliated like his immediate predecessors.
Which undoubted fact casts a harsh light on the wisdom (or lack thereof) of the EU/US choosing to confront Putin over Ukraine. Moscow's been desparate to reach a negotiated settlement since March - albeit one that recognises Russian sovereignty over Crimea - it's the West that hasn't wanted a deal.
Doubly stupid as, even assuming that Putin does back down, his domestic popularity plummets, and Russia gets a new leader . . . who exactly do we think will replace him . . . someone less or more hard line?
Catastrophic misjudgement.
Appeasement sets a bad precedent, the balkans and central Asian states will be getting twitchyOne of the main legs of his genuine popularity at home is the perception that he won't roll over and allow himself to be humiliated like his immediate predecessors. Ergo he can't afford to appear to roll over and allow himself to be humiliated like his immediate predecessors.
Which undoubted fact casts a harsh light on the wisdom (or lack thereof) of the EU/US choosing to confront Putin over Ukraine. Moscow's been desparate to reach a negotiated settlement since March - albeit one that recognises Russian sovereignty over Crimea - it's the West that hasn't wanted a deal.
Doubly stupid as, even assuming that Putin does back down, his domestic popularity plummets, and Russia gets a new leader . . . who exactly do we think will replace him . . . someone less or more hard line?
Catastrophic misjudgement.
Reading that link about the new Russian "Wikipedia" along with all their other "old behaviour", does anyone else just have that gut feeling that this is heading towards a war. Add to that the US military manoeuvres in the Pacifc Rim (check out Vice doc on the PACRIM stuff with China), and it all starts to feel a bit inevitable to me... 
Octoposse said:
skyrover said:
Appeasement sets a bad precedent . . .
Strangely enough, that's prevailing opinion in the Kremlin too.It is looking like a war will result - its just how this war will develop that scares me.
Were through the coldwar - when we had enough nukes to destroy the world and a mindset that we would use them all. Now the goalposts have changed. There is posturing going on and people are pushing the boundary in terms of ideology, and this isnt going to go away. Its going to get to a point when it tips and then it will drag us all in. A lot of people out there wanting what they dont have.
Were through the coldwar - when we had enough nukes to destroy the world and a mindset that we would use them all. Now the goalposts have changed. There is posturing going on and people are pushing the boundary in terms of ideology, and this isnt going to go away. Its going to get to a point when it tips and then it will drag us all in. A lot of people out there wanting what they dont have.
skyrover said:
In Russia's case it simply needs to start acting like a normal country.
They tried it - offered a beneficial trade deal to Ukraine - US/EU screamed 'foul!', asked NATO to abide by both the letter and spirit of international law re Kosovo, but we preferred bombing.Or by acting like a normal country, you mean you want them to invade Iraq, dismember hundreds of children with illegal drone strikes across the Third World, bomb Libya, decide who the Syrian people are allowed to chose to lead them, and conduct mass electronic surveillance of their own citizens? (OK, they're probably doing one out of five already . . .).
Cobnapint said:
You left out the bit where the US disbanded the Iraqi army, instantly turning thousands into explosive and weapon trained insurgents.
Yes, at the stroke of a pen transforming three (four? five?) hundred thousand young men from individuals whose paypackets were conditional upon the continuing functioning of the Iraqi state, to unemployed, unable to feed their families, and looking towards non-state sectarian players for security . . . Octoposse said:
hey tried it - offered a beneficial trade deal to Ukraine - US/EU screamed 'foul!', asked NATO to abide by both the letter and spirit of international law re Kosovo, but we preferred bombing.
Or by acting like a normal country, you mean you want them to invade Iraq, dismember hundreds of children with illegal drone strikes across the Third World, bomb Libya, decide who the Syrian people are allowed to chose to lead them, and conduct mass electronic surveillance of their own citizens? (OK, they're probably doing one out of five already . . .).
Russia was murdering and imprisoning outspoken journalists long before Ukraine was even a twinkle in Putin's eye.Or by acting like a normal country, you mean you want them to invade Iraq, dismember hundreds of children with illegal drone strikes across the Third World, bomb Libya, decide who the Syrian people are allowed to chose to lead them, and conduct mass electronic surveillance of their own citizens? (OK, they're probably doing one out of five already . . .).
It's a mafia state... run by thugs and their cronies.
A shame the average Russian citizen is so typically brainwashed they can't see past the bullsh!t
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_...
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/18/bbc-j...
skyrover said:
Russia was murdering and imprisoning outspoken journalists long before Ukraine was even a twinkle in Putin's eye.
It's a mafia state... run by thugs and their cronies.
A shame the average Russian citizen is so typically brainwashed they can't see past the bullsh!t
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_...
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/18/bbc-j...
And here we were thinking that after Glasnost and the tearing down of the Berlin Wall, Russia was ready and willing to be a friend of the west and embrace freedom and peace.It's a mafia state... run by thugs and their cronies.
A shame the average Russian citizen is so typically brainwashed they can't see past the bullsh!t
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_...
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/18/bbc-j...
Wrong! Just ask Alexander Litvinenko; the journalists listed above; any Russian media outlet that says anything bad against Putin; Pussy Riot; the anti-submarine ships of the Swedish Navy off Stockholm; Crimea; the passengers and crew on flight MH17; any law abiding local in Eastern Ukraine; the Arctic Circle (where the Bear is aggressively reopening military bases to protect his claim to vast energy resources under the ice cap); McDonalds staff in Moscow; BP and anyone else that tries to do business in Russia; RAF fighter pilots at Lossiemouth; the Norwegian air force, and US air defence controllers at NORAD.
Make no mistake - that man is one dangerous a
hole.skyrover said:
Russia was murdering and imprisoning outspoken journalists long before Ukraine was even a twinkle in Putin's eye.
It's a mafia state... run by thugs and their cronies.
A shame the average Russian citizen is so typically brainwashed they can't see past the bullsh!t
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_...
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/18/bbc-j...
there are many people in Russia who have means to kill an unprotected journalist, and those journalists don't write negatively just about Putin but also about oligarchs local crime bosses etc. so it doesn't mean they are killed because of criticising Putin&his policy, as you can see on average more journalists were killed during yeltsin time and I can't remember if he has ever been so aggressively accused of killing journalists like Putin is, let's not even mention some western allies like Saudi Arabia where human rights are certainly worse than in worst Soviet Union timesIt's a mafia state... run by thugs and their cronies.
A shame the average Russian citizen is so typically brainwashed they can't see past the bullsh!t
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_...
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/sep/18/bbc-j...
“Everyone says I’m harsh, even brutal,” Putin acknowledged, without ever disputing such observations. “A dog senses when somebody is afraid of?it,?and bites,” he observed. “The same applies [to dealing?with one’s enemies]. If you become jittery, they will think they are stronger. Only one thing works in such?circumstances—to go on the offensive. You must hit?first, and hit so hard that your opponent will not rise to?his feet”
It seems he was right.
Maybe the USA have some top secret tech that will remove the Russia Nuclear threat fast. Maybe Dave's seen it?
It seems he was right.
Maybe the USA have some top secret tech that will remove the Russia Nuclear threat fast. Maybe Dave's seen it?
Edited by superkartracer on Monday 17th November 12:54
[quote=Stevanos]Looking around on the web, it looks like Russia has quite a few less ICBMs than the US, so Putin might be a little silly to start a fight with nukes./quote]
The whole point of them is so you don't get nuked because of MAD.
If you ever lean on your own stockpile, you say goodbye to yourself as well as your 'enemy'
As for weapons to swat the warheads down, I'm not sure that will ever really happen. Thousands of warheads, many from unknown locations, being made ineffective within a window of perhaps 10 minutes. Hmmmm.
If the nuclear deterrent wasn't a deterrent I'd argue that we'd have nuked some country or another by now and spread 'democracy' to them. Like China or Russia.
The whole point of them is so you don't get nuked because of MAD.
If you ever lean on your own stockpile, you say goodbye to yourself as well as your 'enemy'
As for weapons to swat the warheads down, I'm not sure that will ever really happen. Thousands of warheads, many from unknown locations, being made ineffective within a window of perhaps 10 minutes. Hmmmm.
If the nuclear deterrent wasn't a deterrent I'd argue that we'd have nuked some country or another by now and spread 'democracy' to them. Like China or Russia.
Stevanos said:
superkartracer said:
You may run to *mummy* when this nutcase starts firing some of those 5000 nukes our way.
Let's hope the Russian people can take him out of power soon thenOur leaders truly have s
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