UKIP - The Future - Volume 2
Discussion
FiF said:
sjn2004 said:
FiF said:
Just remember folks there are a lot of ifs and buts in the development of that ranking.
If Reckless wins no 271 that really doesn't mean all the previous 270 are at risk.
Where did that get that figure from? I thought UKIP did well in that region?If Reckless wins no 271 that really doesn't mean all the previous 270 are at risk.
OK to answer that properly needs several pages, but here is the very short and nasty version.
Demographics most likely to support UKIP or not identified.
Each constituency examined from census data.
Find that most constituencies where UKIP support suggested to be strong are ones where the incumbent party is defending a very big majority.
This means that UKIP has not just got to deepen support with their existing social groups but widen support to others where their support is not strong.
Thus you can have a constituency where theoretically they should be popular, and had a good result in the European elections, but basically it's a massive hill to climb.
Rochester is like this, basically and hence lower ranked.
HTH
sjn2004 said:
Anyone got some spare Benecol?mrpurple said:
Went along to a couple of meetings in a pub (where else) sat in the background and listened.
Then met a couple of senior local members.....quizzed them.....got the right answers and joined....simple as that really.
Note I was apathetic to politics and had not even voted since I 1st laid eyes on Blair, would rather poke my eyes out than vote Conservative,let alone joined a party.
I apologise. What I meant to ask was; How do you join a political party?Then met a couple of senior local members.....quizzed them.....got the right answers and joined....simple as that really.
Note I was apathetic to politics and had not even voted since I 1st laid eyes on Blair, would rather poke my eyes out than vote Conservative,let alone joined a party.
SpeedMattersNot said:
mrpurple said:
Went along to a couple of meetings in a pub (where else) sat in the background and listened.
Then met a couple of senior local members.....quizzed them.....got the right answers and joined....simple as that really.
Note I was apathetic to politics and had not even voted since I 1st laid eyes on Blair, would rather poke my eyes out than vote Conservative,let alone joined a party.
I apologise. What I meant to ask was; How do you join a political party?Then met a couple of senior local members.....quizzed them.....got the right answers and joined....simple as that really.
Note I was apathetic to politics and had not even voted since I 1st laid eyes on Blair, would rather poke my eyes out than vote Conservative,let alone joined a party.
FiF said:
Will be amazed if Reckless does it tbh
On the list of Ukip friendly seats according to the Revolt on the Right research.
Clacton is No 1
Heywood is No 148
Rochester is No 271
Also Reckless doesn't understand his constituents like Carswell does. So very brave actually.
Probably has something to do with the fact Ukip didn't have a candidate there in 2010, so no real date on the Ukip vote there unless you go back to when it was Medway in 2005 and Labour pipped Reckless into second place by just a few hundred votes. Ukip came 4th then with 1500 votes. On the list of Ukip friendly seats according to the Revolt on the Right research.
Clacton is No 1
Heywood is No 148
Rochester is No 271
Also Reckless doesn't understand his constituents like Carswell does. So very brave actually.
Mr_B said:
FiF said:
Will be amazed if Reckless does it tbh
On the list of Ukip friendly seats according to the Revolt on the Right research.
Clacton is No 1
Heywood is No 148
Rochester is No 271
Also Reckless doesn't understand his constituents like Carswell does. So very brave actually.
Probably has something to do with the fact Ukip didn't have a candidate there in 2010, so no real date on the Ukip vote there unless you go back to when it was Medway in 2005 and Labour pipped Reckless into second place by just a few hundred votes. Ukip came 4th then with 1500 votes. On the list of Ukip friendly seats according to the Revolt on the Right research.
Clacton is No 1
Heywood is No 148
Rochester is No 271
Also Reckless doesn't understand his constituents like Carswell does. So very brave actually.
Who are this Revolt on the Right? Another self proclaimed "think tank".
LOL somebody needs to get a clue. No doubt you'll be wanting a discount on the book too. It's principally the demographics which drive the placings. But you can't ignore the hill to be climbed to overturn a huge majority last time.
The local elections were only over part of the country so to factor in those results means not having a level playing field across the country if you want to establish a ranking. EU elections are clearly different.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/d...
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-top-100-ukip-lea...
http://www.libdemvoice.org/the-independent-view-wh...
The local elections were only over part of the country so to factor in those results means not having a level playing field across the country if you want to establish a ranking. EU elections are clearly different.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/09/d...
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-top-100-ukip-lea...
http://www.libdemvoice.org/the-independent-view-wh...
HonestIago said:
IainT said:
Honest and brave would have been to 'come out' as soon as his decision was made, not to hold back to the start of conference and do as much damage as possible. As it is he's behaved like a typical politician.
Politics is all about point-scoring and playing cards to best advantage...surely you understand that? Yes very typical to stand down and force a by-election which he has minimal chance of winning...Standing down is his only real option having switched parties - his mandate to represent them was as a candidate for the Tory party, not UKIP.
IainT said:
HonestIago said:
IainT said:
Honest and brave would have been to 'come out' as soon as his decision was made, not to hold back to the start of conference and do as much damage as possible. As it is he's behaved like a typical politician.
Politics is all about point-scoring and playing cards to best advantage...surely you understand that? Yes very typical to stand down and force a by-election which he has minimal chance of winning...Standing down is his only real option having switched parties - his mandate to represent them was as a candidate for the Tory party, not UKIP.
The latest defection is the former deputy mayor of London.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/richard-ba...
Unfortunately he is best known for this:
http://order-order.com/2014/09/30/dick-pic-tory-ti...
The above link from order-order.com is perhaps NSFW
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/richard-ba...
Unfortunately he is best known for this:
http://order-order.com/2014/09/30/dick-pic-tory-ti...
The above link from order-order.com is perhaps NSFW
one of the reasons cmd is unlikely to support a no vote in any referendum on eu membership.
"The success of the UK financial services industry is to a large extent built on EU Internal Market legislation. To abandon this for some untried, unknown and unpredictable alternative would carry very significant risks," said Malcolm Sweeting, a senior partner of Clifford Chance.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/uk-britai...
as far as i am concerned,f
k clifford chance 
i am sure the financial services sector would manage just fine ,after all ,every other industry has had to make adjustments over the years.
"The success of the UK financial services industry is to a large extent built on EU Internal Market legislation. To abandon this for some untried, unknown and unpredictable alternative would carry very significant risks," said Malcolm Sweeting, a senior partner of Clifford Chance.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/uk-britai...
as far as i am concerned,f
k clifford chance i am sure the financial services sector would manage just fine ,after all ,every other industry has had to make adjustments over the years.
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