UKIP - The Future - Volume 2

[mrpurple]

eharding said:

mrpurple said:

eharding said:

mrpurple said:

eharding said:

mrpurple said:

Who's this "we" you speak of.....the holy trinity.......you, Gordon Brown and your god? what I trio!!!

...and you think it was Farage and his acolytes who kept the Union together? If you work in a sector where mandatory drug testing is common, I'd advise you a) take a week off and b) cease your consumption of the recreational pharmaceuticals.

Work...what's that?

Ah - good point.

I'd forgotten that, as you have previously told us, the cumulative effects of cigarettes and an indulgent diet had rendered you unable to contribute further to the nation's GDP on account of having throughly buggered your heart.

The question is though, if you're not even competent to look after your own sorry carcass, what it is that makes you feel qualified to bang on about how the country as a whole should be run?

How you treat your own body is entirely your own concern.

I don't mind paying my taxes to fund the NHS to ameliorate your mistakes, because none of us are perfect.

But frankly, you should take a long hard look at yourself, and your 'kipperism, and ask yourself if there isn't a pervasive streak of self-destruction through both.

Flattered that you took the time to do some research on me, just such a shame you are factually incorrect in many aspects, but never mind I am sure you feel much better now.

No research, just memories of your own self-pitying PH publicity. Feel free to correct me on points of detail.

Dysonitis

[sjn2004]

Transmitter Man said:

Mrr T said:

NO. You do understand I want us to leave the EU. I am just realistic about how we can do so without destroying the UK economy.

Commerce done with the ROW dwarf what we do with the EU countries.

There is little chance pulling out will 'destroy' the UK's economy.

Phil

So we leave the EU.
France and Germany will have to do a deal as we buy more from them than we sell. Renault, Audi,BMW, Mercedes etc etc.
Who will want us to stay? Obviously the parasitical countries, mainly from the old Eastern Bloc wanting lots more free stuff from our tax payers.

[FiF]

In the interest of keeping out of the unfunny sniping and providing information and analysis here is some interesting stuff asking is UKIP set to damage Labour more than the Conservatives?

There is a link to download the full 50 page pdf within that linked page above on Conservative home or directly from the original Fabian society page Revolt on the Left

As always devil is in the details to be found within the appendices.

Essentially it's looking at who will be damaged in Labour - Con marginals and who will benefit, surprisingly the Lib Dems don't do that badly out of it in some areas.

[brenflys777]

FiF said:

In the interest of keeping out of the unfunny sniping and providing information and analysis here is some interesting stuff asking is UKIP set to damage Labour more than the Conservatives?

There is a link to download the full 50 page pdf within that linked page above on Conservative home or directly from the original Fabian society page Revolt on the Left

As always devil is in the details to be found within the appendices.

Essentially it's looking at who will be damaged in Labour - Con marginals and who will benefit, surprisingly the Lib Dems don't do that badly out of it in some areas.

It's an interesting thing to look at and the increased effect on the marginals to Labour is notable, but on his list of caveats about the assessment I think he's missed one off.

Everyone likes a winner!

If UKIP take any of the vacant seats in the next few weeks I think it will positively improve their chances of further seats.

The same would be true of Cameron of course - if he were able to show a win in the EU negotiations - confidence in his ability to succeed. The fact he won't go to bat until he is in power suggests to me that he knows he would fail to impress.

[dandarez]

mrpurple said:

eharding said:

mrpurple said:

eharding said:

mrpurple said:

eharding said:

mrpurple said:

Who's this "we" you speak of.....the holy trinity.......you, Gordon Brown and your god? what I trio!!!

...and you think it was Farage and his acolytes who kept the Union together? If you work in a sector where mandatory drug testing is common, I'd advise you a) take a week off and b) cease your consumption of the recreational pharmaceuticals.

Work...what's that?

Ah - good point.

I'd forgotten that, as you have previously told us, the cumulative effects of cigarettes and an indulgent diet had rendered you unable to contribute further to the nation's GDP on account of having throughly buggered your heart.

The question is though, if you're not even competent to look after your own sorry carcass, what it is that makes you feel qualified to bang on about how the country as a whole should be run?

How you treat your own body is entirely your own concern.

I don't mind paying my taxes to fund the NHS to ameliorate your mistakes, because none of us are perfect.

But frankly, you should take a long hard look at yourself, and your 'kipperism, and ask yourself if there isn't a pervasive streak of self-destruction through both.

Flattered that you took the time to do some research on me, just such a shame you are factually incorrect in many aspects, but never mind I am sure you feel much better now.

No research, just memories of your own self-pitying PH publicity. Feel free to correct me on points of detail.

Dysonitis

[FiF]

brenflys777 said:

FiF said:

In the interest of keeping out of the unfunny sniping and providing information and analysis here is some interesting stuff asking is UKIP set to damage Labour more than the Conservatives?

There is a link to download the full 50 page pdf within that linked page above on Conservative home or directly from the original Fabian society page Revolt on the Left

As always devil is in the details to be found within the appendices.

Essentially it's looking at who will be damaged in Labour - Con marginals and who will benefit, surprisingly the Lib Dems don't do that badly out of it in some areas.

It's an interesting thing to look at and the increased effect on the marginals to Labour is notable, but on his list of caveats about the assessment I think he's missed one off.

Everyone likes a winner!

If UKIP take any of the vacant seats in the next few weeks I think it will positively improve their chances of further seats.

The same would be true of Cameron of course - if he were able to show a win in the EU negotiations - confidence in his ability to succeed. The fact he won't go to bat until he is in power suggests to me that he knows he would fail to impress.

Yes how UKIP will perform in the forthcoming by elections and how those results will affect further, both positively and negatively, all the various parties fortunes comprise a set of known unknowns. Psephological wonks prefer not to speculate but rely on the data.

To be fair the author does put a fair few informal health warnings in the text footnotes without giving error margins. He clearly points out the problems caused by using 2010 results with no candidate then standing.

It does tend to confirm as before that the places where a UKIP vote can have greatest effect are in places they can't win outright, or at least without something like an earthquake.

Clacton continues to be a shoe in.
Rochester looking increasingly likely, certainly the betting money is going that way though personally don't like that as a measure. Possibly a poll about to come out.
Let's see what the latest on Heywood is, i.e. by how much will Labour scrape home.

[steveT350C]

Another poll in on a newspaper's website. This time the Mirror.

Currently.....

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/stand-up-ukip...



57% considering voting UKIP

[Mermaid]

The "quiet" people are turning up the volume against wishy washy political parties.

[NicD]

steveT350C said:

Another poll in on a newspaper's website. This time the Mirror.

Currently.....

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/stand-up-ukip...



57% considering voting UKIP

and thats in the rabid Labour cheerleader Mirror! Fell off chair.

[steveT350C]

Today’s survey shows Mr Reckless on 40, with the Tories on 31 – 18 down on their performance at the 2010 Election in Rochester – Labour 25 and the Lib Dems a paltry two. Unlike Mr Carswell, Mr Reckless is no pin-up in his constituency. Only 25 per cent of Conservative voters say Reckless is a hero for defecting, half Mr Carswell’s rating in Clacton. And 31 per cent say he is a ‘traitor.’


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2780909/Ca...

[don4l]

steveT350C said:

Today’s survey shows Mr Reckless on 40, with the Tories on 31 – 18 down on their performance at the 2010 Election in Rochester – Labour 25 and the Lib Dems a paltry two. Unlike Mr Carswell, Mr Reckless is no pin-up in his constituency. Only 25 per cent of Conservative voters say Reckless is a hero for defecting, half Mr Carswell’s rating in Clacton. And 31 per cent say he is a ‘traitor.’


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2780909/Ca...

I see that the LibDems have got 2% in that poll. That is quite good when you consider the way that they have behaved.

[FiF]

Whilst the usual sneering crowd will deride the Mail link, in reality it's an op-ed piece by LD's former media boss.

Particularly amused by the "Clegg leading the Kodak of political parties"


If the LibDems didn't exist would anybody actually invent them?

[JustAnotherLogin]

Mermaid said:

The "quiet" people are turning up the volume against wishy washy political parties.

Quiet?
In current general election polling UKIP are on 13%, but I reckon I hear more "noise" from UKIP supporters than Labour or Tories combined. Look at the posts on this forum for example.

[sjn2004]

JustAnotherLogin said:

Mermaid said:

The "quiet" people are turning up the volume against wishy washy political parties.

Quiet?
In current general election polling UKIP are on 13%, but I reckon I hear more "noise" from UKIP supporters than Labour or Tories combined. Look at the posts on this forum for example.

I guess it all depends where those 13%/17% who will vote in a GE are concentrated.

[FiF]

Some interesting things emerging from the Survation Rochester and Strood poll.

If you exclude the did not vote last timers then Con and UKIP are neck and neck on 34 with Labour third on 28. LD on 4.

DNVers notoriously the most difficult group to get them to turn out on the day.

Secondly large number of Con last time voters undecided. Probably why Cameron leading from the front in Rochester.

All still to play for.

General observation UKIP needs to get its organisation on the ground sorted. They can throw stuff in these limited by elections, though Clacton seems not that active tbh, but how stretched will they be in a GE? Same goes for the other parties of course, we saw Cons effort in Newark and similar all hands to pump here. Sustainable in a GE?

[Mrr T]

sjn2004 said:

Transmitter Man said:

Mrr T said:

NO. You do understand I want us to leave the EU. I am just realistic about how we can do so without destroying the UK economy.

Commerce done with the ROW dwarf what we do with the EU countries.

There is little chance pulling out will 'destroy' the UK's economy.

Phil

So we leave the EU.
France and Germany will have to do a deal as we buy more from them than we sell. Renault, Audi,BMW, Mercedes etc etc.
Who will want us to stay? Obviously the parasitical countries, mainly from the old Eastern Bloc wanting lots more free stuff from our tax payers.

Is this really the best we can get!!!

You do realise trade is an EU competency so France and Germany cannot do a deal with us. The deal must be with the whole EU and requires unanimous agreement.

[Art0ir]

Mrr T said:

Is this really the best we can get!!!

You do realise trade is an EU competency so France and Germany cannot do a deal with us. The deal must be with the whole EU and requires unanimous agreement.

The EU has always worked in Germany's interests, one way or another...

[FiF]

Art0ir said:

Mrr T said:

Is this really the best we can get!!!

You do realise trade is an EU competency so France and Germany cannot do a deal with us. The deal must be with the whole EU and requires unanimous agreement.

The EU has always worked in Germany's interests, one way or another...

It would be interesting to see what happened if the EU "competency" in trade agreements made life difficult for Germany and some other nations in ways that they felt weren't in the commercial interest of their manufacturers' interests in the UK market.

[Jinx]

Mrr T said:

Is this really the best we can get!!!

You do realise trade is an EU competency so France and Germany cannot do a deal with us. The deal must be with the whole EU and requires unanimous agreement.

Again with the EU trade incompetency. As a "competency" the EU trade agreements are for the benefit of the EU irrespective of the interests of the UK. As such why would these be any better than a UK centric trade agreement?

[Mrr T]

FiF said:

Art0ir said:

Mrr T said:

Is this really the best we can get!!!

You do realise trade is an EU competency so France and Germany cannot do a deal with us. The deal must be with the whole EU and requires unanimous agreement.

The EU has always worked in Germany's interests, one way or another...

It would be interesting to see what happened if the EU "competency" in trade agreements made life difficult for Germany and some other nations in ways that they felt weren't in the commercial interest of their manufacturers' interests in the UK market.

Again my post is to correct a factual error. I do think the EU would come to a trade agreement with the UK if we choose to leave. The question is not can we agree but how long will it take to agree. With 28 nations each with there own agenda negotiating trade agreement with the EU is a major undertaking. Since the only way to force an exit is an article 50 notice to leave I do not think 2 years is enough time to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU which must include not just goods but services.

Therefore I believe the only viable exit strategy is via either the EEA or EFTA. The problem for this strategy for UKIP is neither give any control over the free movement of labour.

We can from EFTA or the EEA negotiate to restrict movement of labour but to do so will take several years.

The UKIP lie is that there is an easy way to restrict immigration form the EU.