Malaysian Airlines 777 down on Ukraine / Russia Border?

[clonmult]

MarkRSi said:

clonmult said:

Apologies if this has been mentioned before ...

Russia Today is being told to write some wonderful lies :

Lieutenant-General Andrey Kartopolov said:

“The SU-25 fighter jet can gain an altitude of 10km, according to its specification,” he added. “It’s equipped with air-to-air R-60 missiles that can hit a target at a distance up to 12km, up to 5km for sure.”

No, the operational ceiling of a fully loaded SU-25 is 5k. 7k clean. Of course, the russian wikipedia page for the SU-25 has been edited to match the facts of the RT article, which now claims a 10k ceiling. Apparently the edits came from a Russian IP address.

Why an SU-25 ground attack aircraft? Don't the Ukrainians have MiG29/SU27 fighter jets (or has the UAF page been 'edited' as well? )

Why? Ask RT. There was an SU-25 shot down a day or two before, so maybe they thought it more believable to claim that a Uktrainian SU-25 was following the plain, despite it not being able to get that close, then massage the figures to make it seem slightly believable.

[fathomfive]

Vaud said:

Why?
Gaffe - an unintentional act or remark causing embarrassment to its originator; a blunder.

It was a blunder, it wasn't premeditated or malicious.

I didn't suggest it was premeditated or malicious.
I found the choice of wording to be at odds with the gravity of the scene as gaffe, to me at least, is too lighthearted a term and is mainly used by folks to brush off the magnitude of their fk up.

All IMO of course. Other interpretations are available.

[onyx39]

Steffan said:

CAPP0 said:

Cobnapint said:

So the flight recorders have finally been handed over, and the relief on the face of the Malaysian chap is plain to see. The rebels ARE human after all - is the message.

But quite what everybody is expecting them to reveal is beyond me.

Altitude - already known, so irrelevant. Heading - already known. Speed - already approximated, but irrelevant.

The only partially useful data would be it's grid reference when cabin pressure and altitude were lost. But that won't pinpoint the missile launch site because missiles can fly a very long way at an angle relative to the ground.

They need to be concentrating on finding exhibit A - the offending BUK launcher. And DNA the thing to help find exhibit B - the trigger happy balaclava-clad meat head that pressed the launch button.

As I understand it, the FDR and the CVR are separate items? I haven't seen any reference to the CVR(s?) being located/handed over? I guess it depends on exactly where the missile struck (previously said to be midships) but would the crew have had the opportunity to react before decompression got them - perhaps saying what they thought had happened, e.g. "WTF was that - have we been hit?" etc?

That and all the other sounds and effects that may have been recorded are clearly what may be gained. Equally it may produce nothing tangible. But at least there is now a chance of some detail from the plane itself. I think in this case we know what the probable outcome will be and we certainly know the crash site itself. Tragic event that requires as full an explanation as can be achieved given the circumstances.

There is film of the aircraft going down with (IIRC) the port wing ablaze.

[jmorgan]

Maybe the recorders were examined, listened to, to see what was held to see how they could spin it, nothing altered. Now the SU25 is dangled.

Then again maybe they have been in a locked room all this time with some form of provenance to prove it.

[Vaud]

jmorgan said:

Maybe the recorders were examined, listened to, to see what was held to see how they could spin it, nothing altered. Now the SU25 is dangled.

Then again maybe they have been in a locked room all this time with some form of provenance to prove it.

I personally (I am not a flight accident investigator, etc) think the recorders are a bit useless.

I think we know it blew up. We know there was no mayday. I guess they might show us something but isn't the real intel from forensics on the wreckage - once the missile fragments are found and the explosive type analysed - that is surely the focus?

[Hackney]

clonmult said:

petemurphy said:

well judged apology from the sky reporter

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jul/22/mh17-...

No, not well judged at all. Anyone with an ounce of humanity wouldn't have even begun to start going through someones belongings under such circumstances, there is no excuse for what he did.

I read the guardian article before coming to this thread. I didn't see the "twitter storm", but can imagine some of the hyper-emptional bks being spouted.
An error of judgment, during a time when rational judgement must have been very difficult.

Lets not go overboard on something very minor when there are much more important things to focus on.

[jmorgan]

Vaud said:

jmorgan said:

Maybe the recorders were examined, listened to, to see what was held to see how they could spin it, nothing altered. Now the SU25 is dangled.

Then again maybe they have been in a locked room all this time with some form of provenance to prove it.

I personally (I am not a flight accident investigator, etc) think the recorders are a bit useless.

I think we know it blew up. We know there was no mayday. I guess they might show us something but isn't the real intel from forensics on the wreckage - once the missile fragments are found and the explosive type analysed - that is surely the focus?

Not an investigator either but a thought occurred that spin required from Putin will need to be clear, lets just check the box to be on the safe side, so we do not get caught in a blatant lie.

[fido]

Derek Smith said:

The Americans hid the flight recorders from IR655 and I always wondered why. The international condemnation for that move was more restrained. From what I can gather, these would negate the suggestion that the plane was in a dive and so could be seen as a threat.

There was a good BBC documentary on it and they speculated that the plane turned away from the warships (instead of continuing straight ahead as was reported) which would tie in with receiving a warning from another US warship. In summary, they shouldn't have shot down a plane which was turning away as requested. The plane was never reported as being in a dive - that was a mistake they admitted to. On that note, I do wonder why countries are so keen to cover us these types of incidents - it only causes more harm in the long run. I think this is going to cause immense damage to Putin in small but incremental ways that he might not have foreseen.

[joema]

Hackney said:

clonmult said:

petemurphy said:

well judged apology from the sky reporter

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jul/22/mh17-...

No, not well judged at all. Anyone with an ounce of humanity wouldn't have even begun to start going through someones belongings under such circumstances, there is no excuse for what he did.

I read the guardian article before coming to this thread. I didn't see the "twitter storm", but can imagine some of the hyper-emptional bks being spouted.
An error of judgment, during a time when rational judgement must have been very difficult.

Lets not go overboard on something very minor when there are much more important things to focus on.

Precisely. I dont think the reporter even had any intent on wrong doing or maliciousness, just wanted to show some human side to the wreckage then realised what he was doing.

Storm in a tea cup, bigger things to worry about

[Beati Dogu]

Puggit said:

FT publishes picture which looks like damage from a missile strike



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/1d6a9ac2-10e3-11e4-b116-...

Seems to be from this area of the plane:



The missile's radar proximity fuse would have detonated the 70Kg (154 pound) fragmentation warhead about 20 meters (65 ft) from the plane and showered the front section with a cone of shrapnel. The pilots and many of the passengers probably died in the initial blast.

[EskimoArapaho]

onyx39 said:

There is film of the aircraft going down with (IIRC) the port wing ablaze.

No there isn't. Do keep up.

[MarkRSi]

Beati Dogu said:

Puggit said:

FT publishes picture which looks like damage from a missile strike



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/1d6a9ac2-10e3-11e4-b116-...

Seems to be from this area of the plane:



The missile's radar proximity fuse would have detonated the 70Kg (154 pound) fragmentation warhead about 20 meters (65 ft) from the plane and showered the front section with a cone of shrapnel. The pilots and many of the passengers probably died in the initial blast.

Out of curiosity, would a radar guided SAM (like a BUK, say) aim for a point ahead of the aircraft (leading the target) aiming to detonate just in front of it, if not scoring a direct hit?

In comparison, an IR AA-8 missile launched from a fictional jet would just aim directly towards a hot engine, detonating either just behind or a direct hit? In either case not likely to cause the damage shown above?

[GarageQueen]

fathomfive said:

petemurphy said:

well judged apology from the sky reporter

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/jul/22/mh17-...

Shame he used 'gaffe' to describe his mistake though.

did anyone else see another Sky news reporter walking through the burnt ground amongst the wreckage? I thought that was a little untasteful as well

[Puggit]

MarkRSi said:

Out of curiosity, would a radar guided SAM (like a BUK, say) aim for a point ahead of the aircraft (leading the target) aiming to detonate just in front of it, if not scoring a direct hit?

In comparison, an IR AA-8 missile launched from a fictional jet would just aim directly towards a hot engine, detonating either just behind or a direct hit? In either case not likely to cause the damage shown above?

The BUK is radar guided, so should theoretically aim for the cross between wings and fuselage. Of course if it's fired from far in front of the jet it will come towards the nose and then the proximity radar will explode it at a small distance from the jet.

[GarageQueen]

although the wreckage has now been tampered with, I think there must be enough clues there to work out what happened, its not as if the rebels know exactly what bits will compromise an investigation

[rich85uk]

Westy Carl said:

petemurphy said:

rich85uk said:

Perfect timing.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28416532

bit naughty they have waited till now and played their card

Meaningless, I bet Putin is p*****g himself if that's the best we can do.

It will achieve nothing as Russia will not extradite any of the suspects or recognise they did anything wrong. However I suspect it's just a way to put this back in the media spotlight and remind the world that Russia will go to great lengths to silence it's critics

[rich85uk]

Westy Carl said:

petemurphy said:

rich85uk said:

Perfect timing.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28416532

bit naughty they have waited till now and played their card

Meaningless, I bet Putin is p*****g himself if that's the best we can do.

It will achieve nothing as Russia will not extradite any of the suspects or recognise they did anything wrong. However I suspect it's just a way to put this back in the media spotlight and remind the world that Russia will go to great lengths to silence it's critics

[vxr8mate]

GarageQueen said:

although the wreckage has now been tampered with, I think there must be enough clues there to work out what happened, its not as if the rebels know exactly what bits will compromise an investigation

I think all the clues are there, but its the evidence they want.

I have to say the patronising tone from Russian officials constantly saying 'Wasn't us' has to give at some point. They surely can't think we will just agree with them and that circumstantial evidence won't add up to the separatists shooting down that plane.

[lord trumpton]

rich85uk said:

Westy Carl said:

petemurphy said:

rich85uk said:

Perfect timing.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28416532

bit naughty they have waited till now and played their card

Meaningless, I bet Putin is p*****g himself if that's the best we can do.

It will achieve nothing as Russia will not extradite any of the suspects or recognise they did anything wrong. However I suspect it's just a way to put this back in the media spotlight and remind the world that Russia will go to great lengths to silence it's critics

Agreed. It's just propaganda to further dirty the Russia image.
I think it's a card well played myself.

[jmorgan]

Wonder if the person that fired it is wondering where the independent and safe countries are where he/she can be protected.