Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 6

[spitsfire]

fluffnik said:

The SNP are now the majority, they've been polling consistently over 50% for the last week or so and are set to take all 59 seats.

I have a suspicion that the polling isn't a genuine reflection of voting intentions across the populous as a whole for a couple of reasons;

1) In the current climate, Nat voters are highly motivated and believe they're champions of social justice. They'd sit next to the phone for a week without going to the toilet if it gave them the opportunity to help 'shape' the opinion polls. As happened in 1992 with Major, I don't think those opposed to the SNP are quite so keen to publicise their opposition.

2) The less wealthy and well-educated you are, the more likely you are to vote SNP. These people are the least likely to vote, so polling that favours the SNP may not be replicated in the ballot.

As an aside, I'm amazed that nobody seems to be questioning the claim that having one political party holding all the seats is a great victory. It's not; it is a catastrophe for democracy and holding politicians to account. The Nats have spent years having a hissy about being disadvantaged by FPTP and demanding it be reviewed because it is 'undemocratic'. Now they've got the opportunity to gain control they're not complaining about the system, any more than they complained about winning a comfortable majority of seats at Holyrood despite not winning an overall majority at the ballot box.

[Cobnapint]

F*ck me, is this thread still going.....?

Looks like it'll still be here for the next referendum the way things seem to be happening in Sturgeon's head at the moment. She's dizzy with the recent poll findings at the moment, and is clearly gagging to be Queen of Scots as soon as she can.

I think she'll find though, that not every SNP voter actually wants independance. They're voting SNP to try and totally eliminate any possibility that the two Eds get in at Westminster.

[simoid]

Re. democracy: just imagine if we were going independent just now, and had decided on a FPTP system.

Every MSP in an independent Scotland would be SNP! Utopia!

They'd've set the ticking timebomb to go off...

[Axionknight]

simoid said:

Re. democracy: just imagine if we were going independent just now, and had decided on a FPTP system.

Every MSP in an independent Scotland would be SNP! Utopia!

They'd've set the ticking timebomb to go off...

But then who do they blame when it goes down the pisser??

[Einion Yrth]

Axionknight said:

But then who do they blame when it goes down the pisser??

The English, of course, wouldn't make any less sense then than it does now.

[s2kjock]

technodup said:

o what I'll likely do. Vote Labour to keep the SNP out your seat. The fewer seats the SNP win lessens the amount of noise they can make (although they'll still make plenty).

We're getting the choice of Labour or SNP and Labour. Much as I despise Labour and Miliband I despise the SNP more.

That's the approach I've just taken after much deliberation. How many others of the " '55 " are doing so I'm not sure. It could well make a difference in my constituency.

Every election in Scotland is going to feel like a referendum from now on until the SNP cock up spectacularly and/or a major external factor changes the balance of opinion. The oil price crash doesn't seem to have had much effect in that respect, and it's therefore difficult to see what would.

For shrewd operators such as the SNP, economic cock ups can be masked for some considerable time. Westminster governments can't get away with blaming anyone else for their mistakes (even the EU or world economy) as we can change them every 5 to 10 years and they "have history".

The beauty of promising something new to what the polls indicate is a disillusioned populace is that you don't have to prove yourself.

Edited by s2kjock on Friday 1st May 08:12

[AstonZagato]

Mojocvh said:

Edinburger said:

She just said "Even if the SNP win every seat in Scotland next week - that us not a mandate for another referendum".

And the theme that is most consistent is....

Politicians LIE.

Except Scottish ones.

The Nats have to get rid of Westminster politicians because THEY lie.

No Scottish politician would lie about, say, having got legal advice on EU membership and it turns out they didn't. Nor would they say a referendum was "once in a lifetime" and then suggest putting it in the 2016 manifesto. Nor say that they would start an oil fund from tax revenues that they are already spending (and more). No, no, no. That would not happen in Scotland.

And if Scottish politicians were to tell such bare-faced lies, then the Scottish electorate would surely punish them in the polls. Because they HATE the lies that politicians tell far more than the rest of the UK. They must have fairness.

Edited by AstonZagato on Friday 1st May 09:11

[AstonZagato]

///ajd said:

They could try and stop any westminster government doing anything. That'll come across well! This could their downfall with some luck, and Scots will see the pointlessness of electing a divisive shouty aggressive 'we can't actually work with anyone' muppet show.

Belgium went almost two years ago without a government. I seem to remember it did ok without the muppets trying to do stuff (that's the worst aspect of politicians of all stripes - they try to do stuff. Most of it is pointless and the changes are either harmful or a best delay improvement. Just get out of the way and let people get on without interfering (just create a sensible legal framework).)

[IainT]

Edinburger said:

fluffnik said:

The SNP are now the majority, they've been polling consistently over 50% for the last week or so and are set to take all 59 seats.

If the SNP do get ~50% of the vote and they do take all of the seats, it shows that there's something fundamentally wrong with the electoral system in this country.

You can bet that the SNP will drop their desire for PR live a live grenade.

I'd actually gain some respect for them if they don't and you do have to admire the fact that Sturgeon actually seems to be real even if her politics are unreal. Clegg, Milliband and Cameron don't connect with real people.

[Garvin]

simoid said:

Garvin said:

If that majority get off their arses and vote then the SNP will not achieve the number of seats anywhere near the current predictions and relative calm will once again descend upon Scotland. It is, therefore, down to the Scottish people and it matters not what the majority want, they will still be culpable due to their apathy if they don't turn out on 7th May!

SNP could easily win all the seats even if all the no voters and more vote against them, eg:

SNP 40%
Labour 30%
Tories 15%
Libdem 15%

or whatever in every seat.

Which is why I said they would gain nowhere near the number of seats currently predicted - I didn't say they wouldn't gain any seats. It's highly unlikely that the polling would be so symmetrical in each constituency so don't believe they can win all the seats 'easily'.

[johnxjsc1985]

AstonZagato said:

Except Scottish ones.

The Nats have to get rid of Westminster politicians because THEY lie.

No Scottish politician would lie about, say, having got legal advice on EU membership and it turns out they didn't. Nor would they say a referendum was "once in a lifetime" and then suggest putting it in the 2016 manifesto. Nor say that they would start an oil fund from tax revenues that they are already spending (and more). No, no, no. That would not happen in Scotland.

And if Scottish politicians were to tell such bare-faced lies, then the Scottish electorate would surely punish them in the polls. Because they HATE the lies that politicians tell far more than the rest of the UK. They must have fairness.

Edited by AstonZagato on Friday 1st May 09:11

How do you know if a politician is telling porkies ...."their lips are moving".

[Garvin]

Edinburger said:

She just said "Even if the SNP win every seat in Scotland next week - that us not a mandate for another referendum".

Sturgeon speaks only about a referendum, not about striving for independence. Let's suppose that the SNP take all the Scottish seats and then let's suppose they take a thumping majority of the seats at Holyrood next year. They may make moves to the effect that they now have a mandate and don't need a referendum and, if they do hold the 'balance of power' at Westminster they could just try and negotiate independence with a weak Milliband without the need for a referendum. They can try it - they've got nothing to lose in those circumstances.

[technodup]

Garvin said:

if they do hold the 'balance of power' at Westminster they could just try and negotiate independence with a weak Milliband without the need for a referendum. They can try it - they've got nothing to lose in those circumstances.

Even they wouldn't be so stupid. There's be riots, and I'd be right at the front.

[IainT]

Edinburger said:

So there's two recent claims on this thread blown!

Good questions being asked.

It's not credible though when senior party people are saying the exact opposite. I'm not convinced that she's being honest - it'd be simple to make an excuse for reintroducing it. Primarily if SNP membership vote it in to their manifesto. Or blame it on reneged deals in the evil UK government.

[Strocky]

davepoth said:

Strocky said:

Define huge, in numbers please

819


If you squint a bit.


But I digress. If you take the 8.3% vs. 9.4% numbers and subtract the difference, roughly 13% of Scotland's economy would be oil revenue, based on last year's prices. That doesn't take into account the associated industries, so I would guess somewhere around 15%. It's about 1.2% for the UK as a whole. Oil has dropped by 50%; the UK could take that in its stride as it's only a 0.6% drop in revenue, but it would have left a 7.5% hole in a Scottish economy this year.

To put it another way, Scotland would be fked.

Edited by davepoth on Wednesday 29th April 22:38

So the use of the word Huge & fked is hyperbole, glad we cleared that up

[Strocky]

simoid said:

Strocky said:

simoid said:

Strocky said:

simoid said:

UKIP man coming across well on BBC Scotland with Jackie Bird... IN MY PERSONAL OPINION.

I can see why he resonates with your good self

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/ukip-...

You're calling me a sectarian homophobe?

Not at all, just a poor judge of character

A) I didn't judge anyone's character, just their ability to interview.
B) I wasn't talking about the person in your article - UKIP's MEP was on Reporting Scotland.

So it was Cockburn that was being interviewed, a strange chap, gay but against gay marriage
I assume you didn't see Bernard Ponsonby interviewing him the other night then?

[Strocky]

Funk said:

So that's just completely nuked any business investment in Scotland for another 18 months at least.

Well done, Scotland. Well done.

Well, bar my business and that small concern BP drilling off Orkney on the Loyal Field

[Strocky]

simoid said:

Talk of nationalist and unionist parties worries me

Why you vote for a Unionist party?

[Strocky]

Greedydog said:

Garvin said:

Not really. It will be Scottish people voting the SNP into power so the original "well done, Scotland, well done" is quite correct.

No, it will be FPTP allowing a minority of Scottish people to vote the SNP into power. The SNP do not speak for all, or even a majority, of Scots.

Boo fking hoo, the conservatives and labour were more than happy with the FPTP system and actively championed it against the LD AV proposal, so they can dry their eyes that for once their cosy duopoly might be upset

Edited by Strocky on Friday 1st May 14:02

[davepoth]

Strocky said:

So the use of the word Huge & fked is hyperbole, glad we cleared that up

No, writing "BIg" using 72pt numbers was hyperbole - and also a joke. Choosing the words "huge" and "fked" was just an elegant and apt use of English.