UK General Election 2015
Discussion
JustAnotherLogin said:
Your argument is undermined by the fact that S2art is denying it just above you
S2art
If the Kippers only voted UKIP where they are likely to win ahead of the Tories, then the gains would be even greater, as that looks like only about 3 seats. I only only considered the whole country as one, because the figures are much easier to get
my arguement is relative to MY experience S2art
If the Kippers only voted UKIP where they are likely to win ahead of the Tories, then the gains would be even greater, as that looks like only about 3 seats. I only only considered the whole country as one, because the figures are much easier to get
JustAnotherLogin said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
think your wrong mate. I want to vote UKIP and I know lots of people where I live want to do the same.But the UKIP candidate will not get a sniff of a chance however if the Conservative candidate is close we will all switch to Conservative and I think a lot of people are smart enough to work that out for themselves without all the stupid vote UKIP get Labour nonsense
Your argument is undermined by the fact that S2art is denying it just above youS2art
If the Kippers only voted UKIP where they are likely to win ahead of the Tories, then the gains would be even greater, as that looks like only about 3 seats. I only only considered the whole country as one, because the figures are much easier to get
Guam said:
As ye reap so shall ye sow
Makes even more sense if you get it the right way round. If you mean the harvest is now a bunch of disaffected voters who are happy to cut off their collective noses, and that of the country, to spite their and the country's faces, I suppose you're right.
Whether they actually realise this is what they will be doing, I'm not wholly convinced.
s2art said:
Farage has said he wants people to vote intelligently. That means vote Tory when the UKIP candidate has no chance IF AND ONLY IF it means keeping Labour out. Equally Tory voters should vote UKIP if the Tory candidate has little chance, Heywood and Middleton being a classic example.
Lets hope they follow his advice. What about you S2art, are you in a constituency where it makes sense to vote Tory?
Don41?
NicD?
Dandarez?
Scuffers?
Will you?
JustAnotherLogin said:
s2art said:
Farage has said he wants people to vote intelligently. That means vote Tory when the UKIP candidate has no chance IF AND ONLY IF it means keeping Labour out. Equally Tory voters should vote UKIP if the Tory candidate has little chance, Heywood and Middleton being a classic example.
Lets hope they follow his advice. What about you S2art, are you in a constituency where it makes sense to vote Tory?
Don41?
NicD?
Dandarez?
Scuffers?
Will you?
JustAnotherLogin said:
And yet you still don't get it because you call it bulls
t
The polls (Ashcroft's being the most detailed) show that 2/3 to 3/4 of UKIP supporters voted Tory in 2010
Current polling suggested a Lab/SNP govt
Take the UKIP voters and distribute (lets be pessimistic) in the ration 2/3 to Tory, 1/3 to Lab
That would give approx 44% of vote to Tories and 39% to Labour
That would be either a Tory majority, or a Tory-LD coalition
You can bluster all you like, but those are the cold hard facts. Kippers are giving the election to Lab/SNP, and in the process denying themselves a referendum on leaving the EU
By all means vote UKIP, but at least do it with your eyes open of the consequences instead of your current ridiculous denial of the facts
the polls are all crap.tThe polls (Ashcroft's being the most detailed) show that 2/3 to 3/4 of UKIP supporters voted Tory in 2010
Current polling suggested a Lab/SNP govt
Take the UKIP voters and distribute (lets be pessimistic) in the ration 2/3 to Tory, 1/3 to Lab
That would give approx 44% of vote to Tories and 39% to Labour
That would be either a Tory majority, or a Tory-LD coalition
You can bluster all you like, but those are the cold hard facts. Kippers are giving the election to Lab/SNP, and in the process denying themselves a referendum on leaving the EU
By all means vote UKIP, but at least do it with your eyes open of the consequences instead of your current ridiculous denial of the facts
s2art said:
Farage has said he wants people to vote intelligently. That means vote Tory when the UKIP candidate has no chance IF AND ONLY IF it means keeping Labour out. Equally Tory voters should vote UKIP if the Tory candidate has little chance, Heywood and Middleton being a classic example.
In 2010 UKIP had an arrangement with some Tory MPs (those who were members of the 'Better Off Out' group) whereby UKIP did not put up a candidate against them (eg. Carswell, Reckless, Philip Davies, Richard Shepherd and a few others). They should have taken this a step further this time round and UKIP could have withdrawn in seats where they have little chance of winning but could cost the Tories a seat and the Tories do the same in certain other seats (like Heywood and Middleton). It would have been a win-win situation for both because as it stands there are going to be quite a few seats up and down the country where the Cons+UKIP will collectively get 40-50% of the vote yet Labour or the Lib Dems will win the seat.JustAnotherLogin said:
The polls (Ashcroft's being the most detailed) show that 2/3 to 3/4 of UKIP supporters voted Tory in 2010
Current polling suggested a Lab/SNP govt
Take the UKIP voters and distribute (lets be pessimistic) in the ration 2/3 to Tory, 1/3 to Lab
That would give approx 44% of vote to Tories and 39% to Labour
That would be either a Tory majority, or a Tory-LD coalition
You can bluster all you like, but those are the cold hard facts. Kippers are giving the election to Lab/SNP, and in the process denying themselves a referendum on leaving the EU
By all means vote UKIP, but at least do it with your eyes open of the consequences instead of your current ridiculous denial of the facts
I'm voting Conservative not UKIP, but the 'fault' if there is one for any split Tory vote rests with Cameron.Current polling suggested a Lab/SNP govt
Take the UKIP voters and distribute (lets be pessimistic) in the ration 2/3 to Tory, 1/3 to Lab
That would give approx 44% of vote to Tories and 39% to Labour
That would be either a Tory majority, or a Tory-LD coalition
You can bluster all you like, but those are the cold hard facts. Kippers are giving the election to Lab/SNP, and in the process denying themselves a referendum on leaving the EU
By all means vote UKIP, but at least do it with your eyes open of the consequences instead of your current ridiculous denial of the facts
turbobloke said:
I'm voting Conservative not UKIP, but the 'fault' if there is one for any split Tory vote rests with Cameron.
since 1997 we have as far as the Eu has been concerned been a soft touch mainly thanks to Bliar.Cameron has done nothing different than Bliar. The anti Euro Conservatives have been silenced and hence the rise of UKIP .
If UKIP take votes from the Conservatives they have only themelsves to blame for silencing anyone in the party who wanted to challenge the EU.
The Scots want out of the Union the English (some of them) want out of Europe we could be in for a very unsettled political period
BlackLabel said:
s2art said:
Farage has said he wants people to vote intelligently. That means vote Tory when the UKIP candidate has no chance IF AND ONLY IF it means keeping Labour out. Equally Tory voters should vote UKIP if the Tory candidate has little chance, Heywood and Middleton being a classic example.
In 2010 UKIP had an arrangement with some Tory MPs (those who were members of the 'Better Off Out' group) whereby UKIP did not put up a candidate against them (eg. Carswell, Reckless, Philip Davies, Richard Shepherd and a few others). They should have taken this a step further this time round and UKIP could have withdrawn in seats where they have little chance of winning but could cost the Tories a seat and the Tories do the same in certain other seats (like Heywood and Middleton). It would have been a win-win situation for both because as it stands there are going to be quite a few seats up and down the country where the Cons+UKIP will collectively get 40-50% of the vote yet Labour or the Lib Dems will win the seat.Tactical voting is only effective if everybody does it.
The rise of UKIP since 2010 means that the electorate are confused as to their strength in their own constituency. My constituency is a Con/Lab marginal (1.8% swing to change).
BNP 2337
Con 18805
Grn 534
Ind 464
Lab 16304
LD 8343
UKIP 855
For those ex-Tory-now-UKIP voters to get what they want they would need a swing of 70% from Con to UKIP and that's only if all the BNP voters go UKIP as well. I can't see the Con vote collapsing from 18805 to less than 6000.
If Con don't get any new voters, it would only take a 13% swing from Con to UKIP for Lab to win the seat. I can see this happening.
The rise of UKIP since 2010 means that the electorate are confused as to their strength in their own constituency. My constituency is a Con/Lab marginal (1.8% swing to change).
BNP 2337
Con 18805
Grn 534
Ind 464
Lab 16304
LD 8343
UKIP 855
For those ex-Tory-now-UKIP voters to get what they want they would need a swing of 70% from Con to UKIP and that's only if all the BNP voters go UKIP as well. I can't see the Con vote collapsing from 18805 to less than 6000.
If Con don't get any new voters, it would only take a 13% swing from Con to UKIP for Lab to win the seat. I can see this happening.
What even the most carefully composed Polls will never show are the "ShyKippers" and others who are reticent about who they will vote for. Whilst others probably deliberately lie. How many I wonder are those who will vote UKIP but prefer not to reveal their intentions. I was surprised by so many folks stopped in the street by TV smoothies who would rather not say at all.
The Conservatives can't take a position on the EU, it looks like opinion is swinging back towards remaining in the EU. Why commit to something the public aren't enthusiastic about and risk alienating most voters?
MGJohn said:
What even the most carefully composed Polls will never show are the "ShyKippers" and others who are reticent about who they will vote for. Whilst others probably deliberately lie. How many I wonder are those who will vote UKIP but prefer not to reveal their intentions. I was surprised by so many folks stopped in the street by TV smoothies who would rather not say at all.
I always find it surprising that so many of these folk reveal their intentions rather than tell pollsters/TV smoothies to fk off and mind their own business.
pingu393 said:
If Con don't get any new voters, it would only take a 13% swing from Con to UKIP for Lab to win the seat. I can see this happening.
But how many Labour voters will also switch to UKIP given that UKIP have been particularly active in targeting the Labour vote over the last 12 months? In the Rochester and Strood by-election only 1/3rd of UKIP voters were former Conservatives, many were ex Labour voters and many hadn't previously voted before.
jagnet said:
pingu393 said:
If Con don't get any new voters, it would only take a 13% swing from Con to UKIP for Lab to win the seat. I can see this happening.
But how many Labour voters will also switch to UKIP given that UKIP have been particularly active in targeting the Labour vote over the last 12 months? In the Rochester and Strood by-election only 1/3rd of UKIP voters were former Conservatives, many were ex Labour voters and many hadn't previously voted before.
By-elections are notorious for tactically voting the government of the day a boot in the b
ks. The media (and others) can tell that single constituency the best way to do it.My point is that each constituency is different. If everyone tactically voted in the same way in every constituency, the overall result would not be the desired one.
If you run the maths of 1/3 Lab vote UKIP + 1/3 Con vote UKIP in every constituency, what do you think the overall outcome would be?
I'll do the maths and let you know after you post your prediction <Pingu likes Maths
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