Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 3

[mybrainhurts]

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2016/1/25/h...

Suggestion of fraud, at long last.

There are a lot of people due for a spell inside, let's hope this has legs for a starter.

[mybrainhurts]

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2016/1/26/c...

Good news of jail terms, in the wake of recent idiotic acquittals on the grounds of direct action being ok if you're trying to save the planet.

All eyes on the Law Society now. Will they burn one of their own?

[durbster]

turbobloke said:

Reading some Thai news sources, apparently there are people in Laos and Vietnam posting pics on Instagram of snow, a very rare and exciting local event for them (copyright issues with Viner).

Bangkok has seen temperatures below 20 deg C, around 16 or 17, and if I read it correctly there's a forecast for 13 deg C which is almost unprecedented there are one or two PHers based in BKK it would be good to hear from them.

When Britain had its warmest December in a generation you said it wasn't worth mentioning; it wasn't "newsworthy" if I recall.

But when Thailand has a weirdly cold January it's suddenly completely relevant.

Why's that?

[turbobloke]

durbster said:

turbobloke said:

Reading some Thai news sources, apparently there are people in Laos and Vietnam posting pics on Instagram of snow, a very rare and exciting local event for them (copyright issues with Viner).

Bangkok has seen temperatures below 20 deg C, around 16 or 17, and if I read it correctly there's a forecast for 13 deg C which is almost unprecedented there are one or two PHers based in BKK it would be good to hear from them.

When Britain had its warmest December in a generation you said it wasn't worth mentioning; it wasn't "newsworthy" if I recall.

But when Thailand has a weirdly cold January it's suddenly completely relevant.

Why's that?

That's an easy one.

As it happens, when somebody pointed out that there had been a mild December on a timescale of 70 years, I remember pointing out that only a few years previously there happened to be the coldest December for 100 years. The BBC did actually mention that. It wouldn't surprise me if I then indicated that both are just weather within normal variation, but you didn't offer a quote or a link to a previous page and I can't be bothered to check.

The point of the post was that while the BBC website makes a meal of UK weather in keeping with its bias, it fails to mention or downplays weather that doesn't fit so well, all the time treating UK weather either explicitly or implicitly as climate.

The game is there to be played, warmists make a meal out of a single day when a jet aircraft taxis past the new runway temperature sensor at Heathrow and causes a brief spike, so it's open house.

Back to your main point - if you go back further I have a history that reveals similar sins.

http://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&a...

In that 2009 thread on Wednesday 22 July I said:

Other global cooling reports in 2009 from around the world, clearly missed or forgotten as inconvenient truth:

A severe cold snap in Thailand prompted authorities to declare an emergency zone across more than half of the country covering 42 of 76 provinces

Freezing to death in Romania

Freezing to death in Poland and Belgium

Freezing to death in India

Coldest start to summer in 100 years

More

2008 had similar.

China cold wave takes toll on economy

What the BBC may fail to cover adequately at the time can at least get a mention on PH

[turbobloke]

For the record in Central England the December of the year in question was also the second coldest since 1659. That's getting closer to a half-decent timescale but still on the short side of short or is it long side. In other news there will be weather in all parts of the UK tonight.

[mybrainhurts]

http://wmbriggs.com/post/17849/

Muddled Mann...

[turbobloke]

mybrainhurts said:

http://wmbriggs.com/post/17849/

Muddled Mann...

The result of being upside down Mann for so long. Probably

Superb article.

probability is not a cause
probabilities we calculate cannot eliminate cause
fallacy of the false dichotomy
if we do not assume anything no probability can be calculated
any probability calculated from any probability model is of no interest to answer questions of cause
probability models are silent on cause

These statements need to be sent to the IPCC and tattoed on the foreheads of all its disciples using a left-right flip so each time they look in the mirror they get the message. OK that's a bit extreme, just send the statements over.

Briggs as a statistician who understands causality as well as stats said:

It is true that global warming might be a partial cause of the anomaly sequence. Indeed, every working scientist assumes, what is almost a truism, that mankind has some effect on the climate. The only question is: how much? And the answer might be: only a trivial amount. Thus, it might also be true that global warming as a partial cause is ignorable for most questions or decisions made about values of temperature.

How can we tell? Only one way. Build causal or determinative models that have global warming as a component. Then make predictions of future values of temperature. If these predictions match (how to match is important question I here ignore), then we have good (but not complete) evidence that global warming is a cause. But if they do not match, we have good evidence that it isn’t.

Predictions of global temperature from models like CMIP, which are not shown in Mann, do not match the actual values of temperature, and haven’t for a long time. We therefore have excellent evidence that we do not understand all of the causes of global temperature and that global warming as it is represented in the models is in error.

Briggs said:

Mann, brave scientist that he is, blocked me on Twitter.

What a

[mybrainhurts]

Mann must have a thick skin. How he manages to look people in the eye and maintain his self belief is quite an achievement.

[Beati Dogu]

The ends justify the means, just like all his kind.

[turbobloke]

Imagine the collective need for IPCC brassnecks if the near-surface temps weren't "adjusted" so significantly on a regular basis.

There's no harm in maintaining an awareness of what the unadjusted data looks like and the impact it's having in various parts of the world. Only through an examination of empirical data (temp, solar eruptivity) will we know if the impending Dalton-type event is more likely to go Maunder, or become a non-event.

Buy Damart and candles.

[robinessex]

mybrainhurts said:

http://wmbriggs.com/post/17849/

Muddled Mann...

Think I'll send this to George Mouthbore at the Guardian, and watch his brain implode !!

[robinessex]

Hinkley Point nuclear plant decision 'delayed'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35415187

Slightly off topic, but relevant as this is a direct result of the governments complete fk up of our energy supply provision, which includes naturally that climate change is down to us people being responsible for it, and thus removing all the nasty power generating places that do it. Then having no idea how, and with what, to replace them !

[George111]

robinessex said:

Hinkley Point nuclear plant decision 'delayed'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35415187

Slightly off topic, but relevant as this is a direct result of the governments complete fk up of our energy supply provision, which includes naturally that climate change is down to us people being responsible for it, and thus removing all the nasty power generating places that do it. Then having no idea how, and with what, to replace them !

Despite having to pay Windfarm operators double the wholesale price not to produce anything at certain times !

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ut...

[Pablo16v]

Ties in with yesterdays energy report from the IME.

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/99829/crisi...

[turbobloke]

Pablo16v said:

Ties in with yesterdays energy report from the IME.

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/99829/crisi...

Our inept politicians sure need a jolt, far more than a volt.

On the American snowstorm from the Political Climate webpages over at ICECAP.

Link said:

Predictably, there is talk this is the result of global warming. They forget the IPCC, UCS and NOAA in their reports for the EPA had stated winters were becoming warmer and less snowy especially in the major metropolitan areas where they historically lie near the critical thermal parameters near the rain versus snow boundary.

http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate

[robinessex]

Pablo16v said:

Ties in with yesterdays energy report from the IME.

https://www.energyvoice.com/other-news/99829/crisi...

And Engineers usually get things right !! Otherwise nothing in the country would work !

[hidetheelephants]

robinessex said:

Hinkley Point nuclear plant decision 'delayed'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35415187

Slightly off topic, but relevant as this is a direct result of the governments complete fk up of our energy supply provision, which includes naturally that climate change is down to us people being responsible for it, and thus removing all the nasty power generating places that do it. Then having no idea how, and with what, to replace them !

Ed Davey on Newsnight making an arse of himself; apparently it's wonderful that his wizard idea of making commerce bear all the risk of constructing Hinkley(commerce isn't doing this really, but that's another issue), and this delay demonstrates how right he was, saving the taxpayer from all that nasty risk. No Ed, risk in the field of energy(and you should know as you were minister for energy, right?) is flicking the light switch and the light not coming on.

Then some berk from the greens wittered on about how wonderful it was the UK was using less energy(energy taxes having bankrupted energy-intensive industry or driven it overseas, although that was not mentioned) and we should be kind to bunnies or whatever.

[turbobloke]

hidetheelephants said:

robinessex said:

Hinkley Point nuclear plant decision 'delayed'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35415187

Slightly off topic, but relevant as this is a direct result of the governments complete fk up of our energy supply provision, which includes naturally that climate change is down to us people being responsible for it, and thus removing all the nasty power generating places that do it. Then having no idea how, and with what, to replace them !

Ed Davey on Newsnight making an arse of himself; apparently it's wonderful that his wizard idea of making commerce bear all the risk of constructing Hinkley(commerce isn't doing this really, but that's another issue), and this delay demonstrates how right he was, saving the taxpayer from all that nasty risk. No Ed, risk in the field of energy(and you should know as you were minister for energy, right?) is flicking the light switch and the light not coming on.

Then some berk from the greens wittered on about how wonderful it was the UK was using less energy(energy taxes having bankrupted energy-intensive industry or driven it overseas, although that was not mentioned) and we should be kind to bunnies or whatever.

Was that Newsnight interviewing Sir ho ho ho Ed Davey then going to a Green for balance?!

[turbobloke]

This morning is the first time I've heard the use of hurricane on local radio news and weather where the term storm was needed. Presumably part of the reason for using names was to make people think our storms are all extreme now and therefore the terms storm and hurricane are interchangeable, then for the crossover to creep in as per this morning where Hurricane Gertrude was announced. The BBC website is still referring to Gertie as a storm so we're not quite there yet.

[The Don of Croy]

turbobloke said:

This morning is the first time I've heard the use of hurricane on local radio news and weather where the term storm was needed. Presumably part of the reason for using names was to make people think our storms are all extreme now and therefore the terms storm and hurricane are interchangeable, then for the crossover to creep in as per this morning where Hurricane Gertrude was announced. The BBC website is still referring to Gertie as a storm so we're not quite there yet.

Not to forget the phrase 'and we're already up to G' - just to re-inforce the idea that this is somehow extreme (or winter as northern folk used to say).