Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 7
Discussion
fluffnik said:
...and it turns out he was right!
There is more support for ongoing EU membership (62%) than the continuance of the UK (55%) in Scotland.
I'm far from the only person to value my EU citizenship more than my British citizenship, and it seems that, given the choice of one union or the other, most people in Scotland would choose the EU.
They might, or they might not once they realise that the EU will not fill Scotland's £15bn budget gap as the UK do. That is the dilemma for Sturgeon. She's in a pretty good place right now, politically, despite having lost her majority, and does she want to risk her political career on another referendum?There is more support for ongoing EU membership (62%) than the continuance of the UK (55%) in Scotland.
I'm far from the only person to value my EU citizenship more than my British citizenship, and it seems that, given the choice of one union or the other, most people in Scotland would choose the EU.
Does the EU poll any higher in priority terms in Scotland than the rest of the UK? Probably not - and there is the risk for Sturgeon. The big issue might be the EU right now but a referendum campaign would quickly turn into a debate about deficit, currency, NHS, budget, borders with the UK all the other stuff people actually care about.
fluffnik said:
...and it turns out he was right!
There is more support for ongoing EU membership (62%) than the continuance of the UK (55%) in Scotland.
Technically speaking 62% support continuing membership of the EU in the UK. As there has never been a straight vote between EU or UK no one really knows what people prefer out of the two.There is more support for ongoing EU membership (62%) than the continuance of the UK (55%) in Scotland.
On top of that, which politician is going to confidently go into any vote relying on opinion polls now?
Veto means something different within the SNP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/alex-sa...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/alex-sa...
fluffnik said:
paulrockliffe said:
I rather remember being told by Alex Salmond that the only way for Scotland to guarantee it's future in the EU was to vote to leave the UK.
Then the people rejected that, happy to be guided by the UK as a whole.
...and it turns out he was right!Then the people rejected that, happy to be guided by the UK as a whole.
Because the EU seem to disagree, and their opinion kind of matters.
technodup said:
fluffnik said:
paulrockliffe said:
I rather remember being told by Alex Salmond that the only way for Scotland to guarantee it's future in the EU was to vote to leave the UK.
Then the people rejected that, happy to be guided by the UK as a whole.
...and it turns out he was right!Then the people rejected that, happy to be guided by the UK as a whole.
Because the EU seem to disagree, and their opinion kind of matters.
If Ms Sturgeon were able to negotiate with the EU that we could continue our membership post-independence then we could see a referendum with the options of i) leave the UK and join the EU or ii) stay within the UK and leave the EU.
If that happened, we'd then know.
confused_buyer said:
They might, or they might not once they realise that the EU will not fill Scotland's £15bn budget gap as the UK do. That is the dilemma for Sturgeon. She's in a pretty good place right now, politically, despite having lost her majority, and does she want to risk her political career on another referendum?
Does the EU poll any higher in priority terms in Scotland than the rest of the UK? Probably not - and there is the risk for Sturgeon. The big issue might be the EU right now but a referendum campaign would quickly turn into a debate about deficit, currency, NHS, budget, borders with the UK all the other stuff people actually care about.
Good post. If there was a snap referendum now then I think there is a good chance the country would vote YES to independence. However once things have calmed down a bit and we have a clearer idea of what trade deals and immigration policies will be put in place then this will hopefully change with a resulting NO vote in Indyref2. There are still fundamental problems an independent Scotland would face as Confused Buyer has noted above. Whether these would make any difference to the loyal SNP supports who appear to want independence regardless of the potential impact on the country remains to be seen.Does the EU poll any higher in priority terms in Scotland than the rest of the UK? Probably not - and there is the risk for Sturgeon. The big issue might be the EU right now but a referendum campaign would quickly turn into a debate about deficit, currency, NHS, budget, borders with the UK all the other stuff people actually care about.
Edinburger said:
technodup said:
fluffnik said:
paulrockliffe said:
I rather remember being told by Alex Salmond that the only way for Scotland to guarantee it's future in the EU was to vote to leave the UK.
Then the people rejected that, happy to be guided by the UK as a whole.
...and it turns out he was right!Then the people rejected that, happy to be guided by the UK as a whole.
Because the EU seem to disagree, and their opinion kind of matters.
If Ms Sturgeon were able to negotiate with the EU that we could continue our membership post-independence then we could see a referendum with the options of i) leave the UK and join the EU or ii) stay within the UK and leave the EU.
If that happened, we'd then know.
I'm assuming any deal that Ms Sturgeon may propose would have to be ratified by all other 27 member states?
Edinburger said:
We're in unchartered territory and Scotland is in a unique situation.
If Ms Sturgeon were able to negotiate with the EU that we could continue our membership post-independence then we could see a referendum with the options of i) leave the UK and join the EU or ii) stay within the UK and leave the EU.
That is possible but, as the last few weeks have demonstrated, Referendum campaigns have a habit of starting off about one thing and ending up on another. Any politician who hasn't noticed that should get another job.If Ms Sturgeon were able to negotiate with the EU that we could continue our membership post-independence then we could see a referendum with the options of i) leave the UK and join the EU or ii) stay within the UK and leave the EU.
The risk for Sturgeon is that whilst that may start out as the options, it could quickly morph into a set of completely different issues people actually vote on and then it gets very unpredictable.
Must admit I was surprised at the referendum result in Scotland. I was expecting more like 70/30. Whilst 62/38 is still a very definite "Remain" nearly 40% of voters wanting out of the EU is a significant minority.
That may also weigh with the EU - do they want another country - even ignoring the currency & debt issues - which, at joining, 40% want out anyway?
That may also weigh with the EU - do they want another country - even ignoring the currency & debt issues - which, at joining, 40% want out anyway?
confused_buyer said:
Edinburger said:
We're in unchartered territory and Scotland is in a unique situation.
If Ms Sturgeon were able to negotiate with the EU that we could continue our membership post-independence then we could see a referendum with the options of i) leave the UK and join the EU or ii) stay within the UK and leave the EU.
That is possible but, as the last few weeks have demonstrated, Referendum campaigns have a habit of starting off about one thing and ending up on another. Any politician who hasn't noticed that should get another job.If Ms Sturgeon were able to negotiate with the EU that we could continue our membership post-independence then we could see a referendum with the options of i) leave the UK and join the EU or ii) stay within the UK and leave the EU.
The risk for Sturgeon is that whilst that may start out as the options, it could quickly morph into a set of completely different issues people actually vote on and then it gets very unpredictable.
It would be a difficult one to justify as the whole premise of a Referendum is the UK has taken Scotland out of the EU against its will.
I can actually see it being two separate referendums:
1. To stay in the UK or leave.
2. The Join the EU or not.
It will be interesting to see how this one pans out. Given the decision on whether to allow a Scottish referendum lies with Westminister it does put the government in an awkward position - Potentially reduce the size of the Union by allowing Scotland the chance to exit or potentially alienate the majority of Scots who wanted to stay in the EU.
Edinburger said:
We're in unchartered territory and Scotland is in a unique situation.
If Ms Sturgeon were able to negotiate with the EU that we could continue our membership post-independence
Well that goes completely against the rule as mentioned several times previously, it's really quite clear. So she's going to need a pretty substantial bargaining chip- what's she got?If Ms Sturgeon were able to negotiate with the EU that we could continue our membership post-independence
It's far from unique btw (well it is right now). As a Polish supplier just said to me half the countries in the EU have areas which want independence. He called it a domino effect, and that's the last thing the countries e.g. Spain want, and it's not what the EU wants either. Why would they?
I suspect as ever Sturgeon is all heat and no light, possibly intentionally (although I'm never quite convinced). It rallies the plebs whilst ensuring she can blame others for her lack of progress. Meanwhile who is actually managing Scotland?
Sturgeon: "Hi, can we join the EU?"
EU: "Sure, let's get a form. Firstly, what's your budget surplus?"
Sturgeon: "Well, it is a small deficit of 8%"
EU: "Oh. That's higher than Greece. Still, how much is it in money terms?"
Surgeon: "Well, that's difficult to say."
EU: "Well, what is it in your currency?".
Sturgeon: "Well, we haven't got one of those yet but it's not a problem."
EU: "Oh, OK, what does your central bank think it is?"
Sturgeon: "Umm, we haven't got one of those yet either but someone told me you can get them on ebay."
EU: "Oh. Look, hang on a minute, I don't think this is the right form. I think we've got one somewhere we use for Kosovo"
EU: "Sure, let's get a form. Firstly, what's your budget surplus?"
Sturgeon: "Well, it is a small deficit of 8%"
EU: "Oh. That's higher than Greece. Still, how much is it in money terms?"
Surgeon: "Well, that's difficult to say."
EU: "Well, what is it in your currency?".
Sturgeon: "Well, we haven't got one of those yet but it's not a problem."
EU: "Oh, OK, what does your central bank think it is?"
Sturgeon: "Umm, we haven't got one of those yet either but someone told me you can get them on ebay."
EU: "Oh. Look, hang on a minute, I don't think this is the right form. I think we've got one somewhere we use for Kosovo"
tenfour said:
fluffnik said:
No EU referendum had been announced when "No" said that only a vote for them would keep Scotland in the EU.
I know one Polish person who only voted "No" because she feared her home, Edinburgh, would be torn out of the EU, I doubt she was alone.
"Announced", no. But to quote the great Nicola Wallace, the EU referendum was at that time most definitely, [altogether now!] "ON THE TABLE".I know one Polish person who only voted "No" because she feared her home, Edinburgh, would be torn out of the EU, I doubt she was alone.
The "No" campaign actively tried to terrify EU citizens by lying that they would be deported in the event of a "Yes", they succeeded in at least one case.
king off out the country and the SNP have managed to wind up Sam Cams step dad
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