The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2
Discussion
OzzyR1 said:
If these polls are a true reflection, its strange that the bookies are favouring a remain vote even more heavily than they did a couple of weeks ago...
bookies have already stated that the number of individual bets favour leave 70/30 . they have to balance the books so they win whatever the outcome, so the larger individual sums placed by remain voters are dictating the price .make of that what you will.Pro EU Twitter troll linked to European Commission...
http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-eu-staffer-tweets-e...
I remember having a 'debate' with him on EU 'democracy'. His final tweet to me was saying that there was no point in debating with someone who likes cricket!
http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-eu-staffer-tweets-e...
I remember having a 'debate' with him on EU 'democracy'. His final tweet to me was saying that there was no point in debating with someone who likes cricket!
Esseesse said:
Puggit said:
Apparently with the poll momentum favouring 'leave', the government has swung in to action and targeted non-registered voters.
There has been a massive swing in new registrations, particularly for younger voters. Of course, younger voters tend to believe what they are told and err to the left wing side of things - and favour 'remain'.
Isn't that strange. Once upon a time the young were thought of as rebellious and would have taken the opportunity to go against the government.There has been a massive swing in new registrations, particularly for younger voters. Of course, younger voters tend to believe what they are told and err to the left wing side of things - and favour 'remain'.
41 years on the people who were in their 20s in 1975 are in their 60s now. The same demographic who voted in back then are set to vote out now. It's not a generational shift as they would like us to think, it's simply that young people are more gullible and easily led because they haven't seen it all before as many times as older people.
s2art said:
Sir Stuart Rose, the putative leader of the stay campaign although he seems to have gone quiet, opined that very little would change. Surely he is of note. Also Capital Economics, a respected company also modeled the outcomes and found it could make a small difference either way. Not of note?
Was that over the short term? I've not read any that suggest a 'small difference'. Medium and long terms are guesses, regardless of authority. I'd rather trust a weather forecast.Regarding the short term, whenever polls suggest leave has an edge, or whenever the papers come up with immigration, the FTSE takes a hit.
Derek Smith said:
Regarding the short term, whenever polls suggest leave has an edge, or whenever the papers come up with immigration, the FTSE takes a hit.
I'd take the reaction if the markets with a pinch of salt too.They love any excuse which makes their day more exciting, gets them on the tele and allows them to scoop up lots of cheap shares in preparation for lots of lovely profit taking a couple of days later.
Derek Smith said:
s2art said:
Sir Stuart Rose, the putative leader of the stay campaign although he seems to have gone quiet, opined that very little would change. Surely he is of note. Also Capital Economics, a respected company also modeled the outcomes and found it could make a small difference either way. Not of note?
Was that over the short term? I've not read any that suggest a 'small difference'. Medium and long terms are guesses, regardless of authority. I'd rather trust a weather forecast.Regarding the short term, whenever polls suggest leave has an edge, or whenever the papers come up with immigration, the FTSE takes a hit.
FTSE 100 up over 1%, Dax less than 0.2%.
Derek Smith said:
Was that over the short term? I've not read any that suggest a 'small difference'. Medium and long terms are guesses, regardless of authority. I'd rather trust a weather forecast.
Regarding the short term, whenever polls suggest leave has an edge, or whenever the papers come up with immigration, the FTSE takes a hit.
Markets don't like uncertainty and the government are desperately trying to make out there is no plan if there is an out vote. They are either lying as part of project fear or there really is no plan if they lose which would seem to be a monumental breach of good governance.Regarding the short term, whenever polls suggest leave has an edge, or whenever the papers come up with immigration, the FTSE takes a hit.
Derek Smith said:
Regarding the short term, whenever polls suggest leave has an edge, or whenever the papers come up with immigration, the FTSE takes a hit.
That is called cognitative bias, Derek.The latest polls have both shown increases in the Leave vote. The ICM poll, released this morning, shows a 5% lead for Leave(an increase of 2 points).
Yet the FTSE100 is up 1% today.
There are lots of headlines this evening along the lines of "Brexit fears hit Pound" and "Pound volatility at crisis levels". Valid headlines if true.
That's all very well but the £ is down 0.45% against the Dollar and is at almost exactly the same level as a month ago and down 0.31% against the Euro and, again, at almost the same level as a month ago.
This is normal day-to-day "volatility" - nothing special.
Do journalists actually check this before writing things?
That's all very well but the £ is down 0.45% against the Dollar and is at almost exactly the same level as a month ago and down 0.31% against the Euro and, again, at almost the same level as a month ago.
This is normal day-to-day "volatility" - nothing special.
Do journalists actually check this before writing things?
confused_buyer said:
There are lots of headlines this evening along the lines of "Brexit fears hit Pound" and "Pound volatility at crisis levels". Valid headlines if true.
That's all very well but the £ is down 0.45% against the Dollar and is at almost exactly the same level as a month ago and down 0.31% against the Euro and, again, at almost the same level as a month ago.
This is normal day-to-day "volatility" - nothing special.
Do journalists actually check this before writing things?
In short, not much.That's all very well but the £ is down 0.45% against the Dollar and is at almost exactly the same level as a month ago and down 0.31% against the Euro and, again, at almost the same level as a month ago.
This is normal day-to-day "volatility" - nothing special.
Do journalists actually check this before writing things?
I know this was drama, but that was a significant story arc in the Aaron Sorkin HBO series The Newsroom, essentially a news organisation trying to do it right, confirming stories and sources independently, against an increasing trend of competition who didn't, especially the blog-o-sphere / Internet warriors / online news providers. In channel surfing land, late on a breaking story and see a ratings hit.
FiF said:
In short, not much.
Agreed. It might also occur to them that Janet Yellen saying that she expects a gradual rise in US Interest rates might have boosted the Dollar. It is up against the Euro as well.I'm not saying that Brexit, or the threat of it, may not cause the £ to fall - just that before writing "Pound Plunges" it might be an idea for people to check (a) whether it actually has and (b) whether there are other external factors.
YankeePorker said:
In a world where governments are trying to devalue their currencies to maintain competitivity, a drop of the £ due to BREXIT fears us not a bad thing!
Quite. Personally I love the remainers claim that both; the pound is going to collapse and tariffs will make our exports uncompetitive... doh! YankeePorker said:
In a world where governments are trying to devalue their currencies to maintain competitivity, a drop of the £ due to BREXIT fears us not a bad thing!
The same thing with interest rates maybe rising.So the pound is going to collapse making exports more competitive and we might be able to raise interest rates closer to a more normal level at the same time. Yes clearly a catastrophe.
Why has no recent UK government has exercised/enforced its rights as below.
Existing EU rules allow states to deport citizens from other EU countries if they have become a burden on the welfare system of the state.
UK law suggests this occurs after six months of unsuccessfully looking for work.
This is already part of UK law, following amendments to The Immigration (European Economic Area) Regulations 2006.
As things stand, EU citizens who come to the UK to find work cannot claim jobseeker's allowance during their first three months in the country.
After that they can claim for a total of 91 days, which can be split across several periods of jobseeking. They can continue claiming beyond that period if they can demonstrate that they are actively looking for a job and are likely to get it.
After a total of six months they can be removed if they still have not found a job, and have no realistic possibility of finding one, and require support from the welfare system.
These rules are in place and are in line with existing EU legislation.
Not very different to Switzerland then really, if the UK government wanted to enact it.
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