The 'No to the EU' campaign Vol 2

[paulrockliffe]

confused_buyer said:

FiF said:

Ashcroft tweeted it today.

If it is as accurate as his General Election polling then............

The problem with Ashcroft's assumptions is that there isn't a great deal of evidence that Conservative voters do split 60/40 Out and in fact most polling evidence suggests it is more likely the other way round.

I think it is fair to say that quite a lot of Conservative activists and members support Out but I'm not convinced this is reflected in Conservative voters.

That it's on the back of an envelope suggests it's probably a bit of fun I think.

But if we're pulling it apart, it doesn't take into account all votes that were cast for 'other' reasons. ie UKIP picked up votes in Labour and Conservative safe seats as a protest. UKIP lost votes to the Conservatives to stop Idiot Ed getting in, and some people just voted for a local politician who does a good job regardless of party.

Just ignore the polls, there's only one that matters.

[Esseesse]

confused_buyer said:

danllama said:

Thanks for that, interesting post.

The problem with anything like this is you have no idea what sample you are getting.

For example, if you take a drive through the Tendring District you will find streets where literally pretty much every house has a "Vote Leave" sign outside and you'd get impression it will be a 95% vote for out.

You then have to remember that the local MP is UKIP.

As anyone who has ever been involved in elections knows you can do a street and come away with the impression that absolutely everyone is going to vote for you and you can't possibly lose. Two days later you do another street and come back convinced you won't get a single vote.

This is true.

Maybe helpful to have recent Bedford election results...

GE 2015

Conservative - 42.6%
Labour - 40.2%
UKIP - 9.6%
Lib Dem - 4.2%
Green - 3.1%

Edit: Looking at ward by ward predictions, it seems that this area is more heavily Conservative. Around 50%+ Conservative, 25% Labour, 15% UKIP.

Edited by Esseesse on Tuesday 24th May 09:26

[jjlynn27]

zygalski said:

FiF said:

fblm said:

FiF said:

Literally back of envelope calculation, thanks to Lord Ashcroft.

nice. when was this?

Ashcroft tweeted it today.

That settles it then.
May as well not even bother voting now

That image seems to be missing the top bit.

[jjlynn27]

CaptainSlow said:

jjlynn27 said:

This thread is going to be pure comedy gold to read on 24th of June.

Not really. I haven't seen any predictions of a Brexit majority. Best guess is the 55/45 to stay in.

As a democracy, the people will get what the people deserve.

Missed this.

It's already comedy gold. It will be even more so on 24th, regardless of the result.

[turbobloke]

FiF said:

fblm said:

FiF said:

Literally back of envelope calculation, thanks to Lord Ashcroft.

nice. when was this?

Ashcroft tweeted it today.

Interesting.

This is from the interactive poll posted on PH yesterday iirc.

Turnout at 50% with the sliders set to mid-points (age, class).

[Zod]

FiF said:

fblm said:

FiF said:

Literally back of envelope calculation, thanks to Lord Ashcroft.

nice. when was this?

Ashcroft tweeted it today.

Oh yes and Ashcroft did such a good job last year, didn't he? Just wanting a result and writing down some figures that show the result you want is convincing only to those who like the result it shows.

[0000]

10% of UKIP voters want to remain?

[Zod]

turbobloke said:

FiF said:

fblm said:

FiF said:

Literally back of envelope calculation, thanks to Lord Ashcroft.

nice. when was this?

Ashcroft tweeted it today.

Interesting.

This is from the interactive poll posted on PH yesterday iirc.

Turnout at 50% with the sliders set to mid-points (age, class).

What is that poll? It's not a poll of PH, surely?


Meanwhile, according to the latest ORB poll in the Telegraph:

EU referendum poll: pensioners, Tory voters and men are deserting the Brexit campaign.

It's a poll of people who say they will definitely vote and the finding is 55% Remain, 42% Leave.

[Norfolkit]

confused_buyer said:

If it is as accurate as his General Election polling then............

The problem with Ashcroft's assumptions is that there isn't a great deal of evidence that Conservative voters do split 60/40 Out and in fact most polling evidence suggests it is more likely the other way round.

I think it is fair to say that quite a lot of Conservative activists and members support Out but I'm not convinced this is reflected in Conservative voters.

I'd be frankly astonished if most Conservative voters weren't way more Brexitish than the parliamentary party, which is why Cameron is going to have one seriously divided party after the referendum regardless of the result. Still he'll just fk off and join the gravy train and let someone else pick up the mess no doubt.

[jjlynn27]

Esseesse said:

jjlynn27 said:

Let me get this straight; At the moment we have, democratically elected, but in from brexiter position, ineffective opposition. If we vote leave, that same opposition will become effective and be there to stop Dave from giving visas to Turks? Is that what you are saying?

I think our membership of the EU is arguably a good reason for the decline in our domestic politics where the main parties broadly agree on everything.

What decline? Main parties are democratically elected. I don't see the decline at all. Certainly, at least to me, it seems that it's much better now than when Blair's lot were in power. Again, relevance to Turkey/veto?

[Pan Pan Pan]

zygalski said:

Jon321 said:

Im losing track of all the badness that will happen to us post June 23rd if we leave. Holidays going up in price I see now has been added to the extensive list.

At the rate the doom and gloom has been put out there by Dave and Co I'm going to struggle to get up in the morning soon. I've a birthday in June, thankfully pre referendum, I suspect post Brexit birthdays will also reduce or perhaps be things we can't celebrate anymore or something.

Is the Black Death coming back if we leave? I've lost where we're up to now with it all.

That's nothing.
If we stay you'll hardly be able to spot a white face in a crowd in 10 years time. English will become the second language & we'll all be governed by Sharia Law.

Why wait 10 years? This has already happened in East London where indigenous white people are in the minority, and to quote a resident, they feel like foreigners in their own land.
BBC 1. program on tonight at 10.45 is covering this, Could be interesting?

[turbobloke]

Zod said:

What is that poll?

It's from the YouGov website iirc, the YouGov referendum turnout-o-meter interactive poll which updates through to the vote.

[Zod]

Pan Pan Pan said:

zygalski said:

Jon321 said:

Im losing track of all the badness that will happen to us post June 23rd if we leave. Holidays going up in price I see now has been added to the extensive list.

At the rate the doom and gloom has been put out there by Dave and Co I'm going to struggle to get up in the morning soon. I've a birthday in June, thankfully pre referendum, I suspect post Brexit birthdays will also reduce or perhaps be things we can't celebrate anymore or something.

Is the Black Death coming back if we leave? I've lost where we're up to now with it all.

That's nothing.
If we stay you'll hardly be able to spot a white face in a crowd in 10 years time. English will become the second language & we'll all be governed by Sharia Law.

Why wait 10 years? This has already happened in East London where indigenous white people are in the minority, and to quote a resident, they feel like foreigners in their own land.
BBC 1. program on tonight at 10.45 is covering this, Could be interesting?

Talking about Tower Hamlets perhaps? It's funny, but I was out in East London last Friday night, and went to two bars in Brick Lane, both of which served alcohol. Most of the people in them were white.

It's funny, by the way, that you are talking about Asian immigration in a thread about the EU.

[Esseesse]

jjlynn27 said:

Esseesse said:

jjlynn27 said:

Let me get this straight; At the moment we have, democratically elected, but in from brexiter position, ineffective opposition. If we vote leave, that same opposition will become effective and be there to stop Dave from giving visas to Turks? Is that what you are saying?

I think our membership of the EU is arguably a good reason for the decline in our domestic politics where the main parties broadly agree on everything.

What decline? Main parties are democratically elected. I don't see the decline at all. Certainly, at least to me, it seems that it's much better now than when Blair's lot were in power. Again, relevance to Turkey/veto?

Relevance to Turkey: See previous replies. If you can't understand my point (happy to disagree) then I don't know what you're doing here.

Decline: I'm not talking Blair -> Now, more like since WW2. Look at the decline in the level of debate, differences in positions, and the decline in voter turnout for a start.

[jjlynn27]

Mr_B said:

Guess what ? I don't trust politicians. Out of the EU, the government has no pressure to accept an open door to Turkey or even this current deal which we are meant to believe is all about holiday rights for Turks. All that happens is that Turkey becomes just another one of a hundred or so that we may deal with and which people can apply to come and emigrate from.

Yes, a PM in a post-EU world could also open up the door to Turkey or even Somalia and Nigeria , or just give them all visa free travel to the UK. The chances of him doing so are nil, because the public wouldn't accept it and he'd commit electoral suicide.
When inside an EU that wants Turkey to join and with a rabidly pro Turkey PM, that chance rises hugely.

So outside EU, decision to allow free access to Turks is political suicide. But chances of that same political suicide are 'rising hugely' inside EU? Because of 'rabidly' pro Turkey PM.

Mr_B said:

The EU is already desperate for a deal to try and clear up their migrant mess and dealing with a corrupt , human rights abusing , leaky ISIS border/buying their oil government of Turkey. Who knows what kinda deal they'll do in the future with Turkey.
It's very simple, without the EU trying to force the PM and country in the direction they want, you get a PM more in tune with what the country wants.

I understand that it's hard for you to accept that country didn't want Farage, not as a PM, but even as an MP. Cameron is fairly elected and can be voted out. 'Who know what kind of deal...' is meaningless drivel.

Mr_B said:

I see you edited you other post regarding Penny Mordaunt after I'd replied to it. Your obsession with it and absolute demand that it is 100% clear and undeniable , says much about how blinkered you are in your rabidly pro EU stance. You might have noted I said it could be one way or the other, but that I believed it wasn't clear and she made a total mess of it.

You use 'rabidly' a lot. I edit posts mostly to fix abysmal Engrish. If I change the meaning of the post I do add ETA: explanation. In any case time of your reply is after the time of my edit so not sure how it's relevant.

You are desperately trying to construct scenario in which you'd be less obviously wrong.

Still fun to read. Enjoy your shopping.




ETF : quoting (just in case)

Edited by jjlynn27 on Tuesday 24th May 10:16

[johnxjsc1985]

the Telegraph suggesting older Conservative voters will vote "remain" ?. Its not my experience I know about a dozen of these old fogies and they are to a man and woman voting OUT.

[confused_buyer]

Norfolkit said:

I'd be frankly astonished if most Conservative voters weren't way more Brexitish than the parliamentary party, which is why Cameron is going to have one seriously divided party after the referendum regardless of the result. .

I'm not at all convinced that Conservative voters are more Brexitish - in fact the Remain campaign on economics is really hitting home with them (which is cleverly targeted) and suspect the majority will vote for in.

I think Conservative voters who are activists, politically engaged or follow politics closely may well be Bexitish but the majority of voters are not of this type and don't follow that closely apart from every 5 years or on a major issue like this.

It is the most common mistake in politics for those actively interested to think others think the same as they do.

[Tony427]

paulrockliffe said:

The black death was a Spanish thing wasn't it? I suppose it depends what tariff they put on it when they export it, with all the other stuff we've been promised, we probably won't be able to afford it.

Bravo Sir.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Zod said:

Pan Pan Pan said:

zygalski said:

Jon321 said:

Im losing track of all the badness that will happen to us post June 23rd if we leave. Holidays going up in price I see now has been added to the extensive list.

At the rate the doom and gloom has been put out there by Dave and Co I'm going to struggle to get up in the morning soon. I've a birthday in June, thankfully pre referendum, I suspect post Brexit birthdays will also reduce or perhaps be things we can't celebrate anymore or something.

Is the Black Death coming back if we leave? I've lost where we're up to now with it all.

That's nothing.
If we stay you'll hardly be able to spot a white face in a crowd in 10 years time. English will become the second language & we'll all be governed by Sharia Law.

Why wait 10 years? This has already happened in East London where indigenous white people are in the minority, and to quote a resident, they feel like foreigners in their own land.
BBC 1. program on tonight at 10.45 is covering this, Could be interesting?

Talking about Tower Hamlets perhaps? It's funny, but I was out in East London last Friday night, and went to two bars in Brick Lane, both of which served alcohol. Most of the people in them were white.

It's funny, by the way, that you are talking about Asian immigration in a thread about the EU.

How do you know the program is about Asian immigration, it has not even been shown yet?
Did you assume non whites are likely to be Asian?

[FiF]

Zod said:

FiF said:

fblm said:

FiF said:

Literally back of envelope calculation, thanks to Lord Ashcroft.

nice. when was this?

Ashcroft tweeted it today.

Oh yes and Ashcroft did such a good job last year, didn't he? Just wanting a result and writing down some figures that show the result you want is convincing only to those who like the result it shows.

In case you missed it, whatever the source of the calculation, already said it's wrong imo. HTH.

But correct, writing down some figures, with a few dodgy nested assumptions and methodological inaccuracies just for good measure, that end up showing the result you want is indeed only convincing to those who like the result it shows. Leave it to others to point out a few obvious examples that have been in the news.