How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[Dr Jekyll]

ORD said:

Atomic12C said:

So the media is reporting that France wants to use Brexit process as a means to damage the UK economy.
And Germany have MEPs saying that the goal of the Brexit negotiations is to punish the UK and stop any other members contemplating the idea of leaving.

Great neighbours we have.

All this shouts one thing to me...."why would we ever want be part of such a petty organisation anyways?"

And why would any other country want to join up knowing that the process of leaving, if that is what works best for their national interest, is likely to be a painful drawn out process whereby your 'close friends' wish to hurt your prosperity?

Perfectly legitimate stances for France and Germany to take.

No they aren't.

Atomic12C said:

And we would want to be part of the EU because our membership is massively beneficial to us.

So why do they need to punish us? Surely in that case leaving would be it's own punishment.

[PurpleMoonlight]

FiF said:

One thing, where the UK demonstrates that it wants to try and be reasonable and proposes concrete suggestions, eg rights of citizens, EHIC just two examples where I think our proposals are reasonable start points, the EU shows it has no intention of being reasonable. As a Flexciter, and therefore one of the most moderate on the Leave side. this is just hardening my resolve, and I suspect that of others. I'd guess that the EU and Remainers think a really good job is being done by their negotiators, really it's not. More determined by every week. Think on that people.

Does it not occur to you that the EU thinks their stance is perfectly fair and reasonable and it is the UK that is being unreasonable?

[Sway]

ORD said:

Atomic12C said:

So the media is reporting that France wants to use Brexit process as a means to damage the UK economy.
And Germany have MEPs saying that the goal of the Brexit negotiations is to punish the UK and stop any other members contemplating the idea of leaving.

Great neighbours we have.

All this shouts one thing to me...."why would we ever want be part of such a petty organisation anyways?"

And why would any other country want to join up knowing that the process of leaving, if that is what works best for their national interest, is likely to be a painful drawn out process whereby your 'close friends' wish to hurt your prosperity?

Perfectly legitimate stances for France and Germany to take.


And we would want to be part of the EU because our membership is massively beneficial to us.

No, they really aren't reasonable positions for France and Germany to take.

There is a fundamental, significant difference between seeking to take advantage of Brexit, and trying to cause harm on another nation due to them wanting to leave. The former position is entirely right and proper, the stated position is anything but (and of course, as many here and on the continent note, mutually destructive).

[FiF]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Does it not occur to you that the EU thinks their stance is perfectly fair and reasonable and it is the UK that is being unreasonable?

Of course they think it's fair that for example the ECJ has jurisdiction over EU citizens in UK after we have left, but presumably refuse the reverse concept that UK courts would have some jurisdiction over UK citizens in the EU. Otherwise they wouldn't propose what they have. There are two explanations for that, they think it's fair, which only the truly deluded would think that, or they are trying it on, in which case they are deliberately taking the piss. To which I go into BoJo mode and they can jog on. Clowns.

[PurpleMoonlight]

FiF said:

Of course they think it's fair that for example the ECJ has jurisdiction over EU citizens in UK after we have left, but presumably refuse the reverse concept that UK courts would have some jurisdiction over UK citizens in the EU. Otherwise they wouldn't propose what they have. There are two explanations for that, they think it's fair, which only the truly deluded would think that, or they are trying it on, in which case they are deliberately taking the piss. To which I go into BoJo mode and they can jog on. Clowns.

I thought they are proposing that UK citizens in the EU will have access to the ECJ so they are expecting the same for EU citizens living in the UK.

Seems fair and reasonable to me.

[FiF]

Didn't bother to read what I wrote did you. Presumably you think the ECJ should have rights of jurisdiction over EU citizens in, say, the USA, or China then.

[Tuna]

ORD said:

Yeah! fk those successful companies. Who cares what they say?!

Who cares what happens to the companies that pay 1/3 of all UK tax?!

You literally could not make up either the blithering idiocy or the supreme insouciance of Brexiteers.

If our top companies suffer, we all suffer. Badly.

You are quite ridiculous sometimes

What I was saying is that the only people who are in a position to advise about how much leaving the EU will affect them, are the ones that have grown during the relationship with the EU. There's no-one around to say "The UK can trade with Europe without being a member of the EU" because no-one lives in that parallel universe. So all the crap we get quoted about 'concerns leaving the EU' are heavily confirmation biased.

Your tired hysteria about how the sky will fall in lacks any clear mechanism for the disasters you're predicting. The markets have been distinctly boring for the last six months or so which flat out contradicts your wailings - the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are healthy, the pound has gently risen after the correction following Brexit, GDP is rising, unemployment is down... Clearly all those idiot business leaders can't see what you can see.

Of course we've not yet left, but for all that to change much you have to actually show a significant difference in trading conditions - which as far as I can see, you haven't done. The best I've seen so far is people confusing WTO maximum permitted tariffs with required tariffs and then claiming that everything is going to cost 25% more in the UK - which is a fundamental misunderstanding of the tariff mechanism. Or claims that no goods will ever be transported over the channel ever again because paperwork. It's FUD, pure and simple and it's not convincing.

[p1stonhead]

Anyone have thoughts on this?

'The Cost of No Deal'
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Co...

Supposedly an independent and impartial body. Certainly looks like it's written by people who know their stuff;

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/about-us/

Spoiler - it would be devastating...

[ORD]

Atomic12C said:

ORD said:

And we would want to be part of the EU because our membership is massively beneficial to us.

The EU referendum vote would disagree with that notion.

It may be beneficial to some. Not all.
And on the balance of benefits vs drawbacks, the UK vote showed that there may be more drawbacks than benefits....at least to the voting public.

The ultimate 'alternative facts' argument.

Persuade a large part of a gullible Public of a lie.

The lie then becomes the truth.

[Tuna]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Does it not occur to you that the EU thinks their stance is perfectly fair and reasonable and it is the UK that is being unreasonable?

I thought the UK didn't have a stance because it's so disorganised and only has one notepad between three people?

Not a good idea to mix up the stance of the EU and the stance of individual nations. That could get confusing.

[Camoradi]

FiF said:

Don't talk to me about BNFL procurement. Closest I've ever got in a meeting to walking round the table and sticking someone on the floor.

They finally decided to go for the table then....

[anonymous-user]

We'll have a few more years of this entertainment for sure. Happy days.
The worse it becomes & the £ tumbles the better it is for investments . Result

You can be sure that the reasonably wealthy, or the professional Brexiteer establishment figures, won't be the ones who suffer...

[cayman-black]

Funk said:

Atomic12C said:

So the media is reporting that France wants to use Brexit process as a means to damage the UK economy.
And Germany have MEPs saying that the goal of the Brexit negotiations is to punish the UK and stop any other members contemplating the idea of leaving.

Great neighbours we have.

All this shouts one thing to me...."why would we ever want be part of such a petty organisation anyways?"

And why would any other country want to join up knowing that the process of leaving, if that is what works best for their national interest, is likely to be a painful drawn out process whereby your 'close friends' wish to hurt your prosperity?

It's the difference between leaving a company where your contribution was significant and everyone whips round, buys you a leaving gift, signs a card and goes on the lash for an evening to wish you well in the new role you're going to...

...or like trying to leave Scientology.





This^. i think what the EU is asking for right now is absolutely ridiculous.









To be frank if that's the kind of petty, snotty attitudes being shown by France and Germany then we're doing the right thing getting out.

[ORD]

Jimboka said:

We'll have a few more years of this entertainment for sure. Happy days.
The worse it becomes & the £ tumbles the better it is for investments . Result

You can be sure that the reasonably wealthy, or the professional Brexiteer establishment figures, won't be the ones who suffer...

Quite.

Plenty of people, and I am one of them, probably won't suffer much from Brexit. But you can be damn sure that the bottom 1/3 of society will.

Did nobody bother to check on the likely interests of the high-profile Brexiteers? Almost all of them have interests that do not coincide remotely with the poor buggers that they conned into voting for Brexit.

Anyone see David Davis today? He gets more stupid and more panicked every time I see him. He's about 20 IQ points short of having any place in a complex negotiation.

[dan98]

Atomic12C said:

So the media is reporting that France wants to use Brexit process as a means to damage the UK economy.
And Germany have MEPs saying that the goal of the Brexit negotiations is to punish the UK and stop any other members contemplating the idea of leaving.

But who exactly are these German MEPs you refer to?

There is one only guy who it seems is claiming he wishes to see the UK punished - Hans-Olaf Henkel - and he is an extreme-right 'nutcase' in the eyes of most people.

[PurpleMoonlight]

FiF said:

Didn't bother to read what I wrote did you. Presumably you think the ECJ should have rights of jurisdiction over EU citizens in, say, the USA, or China then.

Do you know if a Chinese citizen living in Germany has access to the ECJ?

[Nothingtoseehere]

ORD said:

Quite.

Plenty of people, and I am one of them, probably won't suffer much from Brexit. But you can be damn sure that the bottom 1/3 of society will.

Did nobody bother to check on the likely interests of the high-profile Brexiteers? Almost all of them have interests that do not coincide remotely with the poor buggers that they conned into voting for Brexit.

Anyone see David Davis today? He gets more stupid and more panicked every time I see him. He's about 20 IQ points short of having any place in a complex negotiation.

No one conned me,me old mucker.
Seems like you were the only ones conned,believing in emergency budgets,ww3 etc,etc,after all,you fell for it did you not?

[FiF]

PurpleMoonlight said:

FiF said:

Didn't bother to read what I wrote did you. Presumably you think the ECJ should have rights of jurisdiction over EU citizens in, say, the USA, or China then.

Do you know if a Chinese citizen living in Germany has access to the ECJ?

Deliberately being obtuse and missing the point does your position no favours. There's no chance of us agreeing in this, so leaving it.

[///ajd]

Atomic12C said:

So the media is reporting that France wants to use Brexit process as a means to damage the UK economy.
And Germany have MEPs saying that the goal of the Brexit negotiations is to punish the UK and stop any other members contemplating the idea of leaving.

Great neighbours we have.

All this shouts one thing to me...."why would we ever want be part of such a petty organisation anyways?"

And why would any other country want to join up knowing that the process of leaving, if that is what works best for their national interest, is likely to be a painful drawn out process whereby your 'close friends' wish to hurt your prosperity?

Has it dawned on you yet that we were in the club to STOP them damaging us? You'll think it'll be easier once we are on our own?

We were doing pretty well at controlling the EU too. As an example we ensured the EU army was on the back burner for years.

All going OK until the government asked everyone "what they reckon", and we were treated to the full majesty of Farage filled opinion.

And now look at the UK. Just look at it. Omnishambles.

[Nothingtoseehere]

///ajd said:

Has it dawned on you yet that we were in the club to STOP them damaging us? You'll think it'll be easier once we are on our own?

We were doing pretty well at controlling the EU too. As an example we ensured the EU army was on the back burner for years.

All going OK until the government asked everyone "what they reckon", and we were treated to the full majesty of Farage filled opinion.

And now look at the UK. Just look at it. Omnishambles.

Yeah,how dare they ask the people..