How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
speedy_thrills said:
I'd assume that the proponents of brexit will make good on their promises around trade.
Many of us wondered how they had planned for this scenario but had many explicit assurances about equivalent or better trading terms being available to the UK post-brexit. Now it's time for them to deliver the goods and they've only got a very limited time to do so.
Don't say that! Many of us wondered how they had planned for this scenario but had many explicit assurances about equivalent or better trading terms being available to the UK post-brexit. Now it's time for them to deliver the goods and they've only got a very limited time to do so.
The Leave voters on here all knew there would be no special trade relationship and that the economy would take a battering, apparently.
But they are prepared to live with that. Not clear why.
ORD said:
speedy_thrills said:
I'd assume that the proponents of brexit will make good on their promises around trade.
Many of us wondered how they had planned for this scenario but had many explicit assurances about equivalent or better trading terms being available to the UK post-brexit. Now it's time for them to deliver the goods and they've only got a very limited time to do so.
Don't say that! Many of us wondered how they had planned for this scenario but had many explicit assurances about equivalent or better trading terms being available to the UK post-brexit. Now it's time for them to deliver the goods and they've only got a very limited time to do so.
The Leave voters on here all knew there would be no special trade relationship and that the economy would take a battering, apparently.
But they are prepared to live with that. Not clear why.
Robertj21a said:
ORD said:
speedy_thrills said:
I'd assume that the proponents of brexit will make good on their promises around trade.
Many of us wondered how they had planned for this scenario but had many explicit assurances about equivalent or better trading terms being available to the UK post-brexit. Now it's time for them to deliver the goods and they've only got a very limited time to do so.
Don't say that! Many of us wondered how they had planned for this scenario but had many explicit assurances about equivalent or better trading terms being available to the UK post-brexit. Now it's time for them to deliver the goods and they've only got a very limited time to do so.
The Leave voters on here all knew there would be no special trade relationship and that the economy would take a battering, apparently.
But they are prepared to live with that. Not clear why.
All up for grabs then, in the best interests of the UK (including NI of course).
///ajd said:
Robertj21a said:
ORD said:
speedy_thrills said:
I'd assume that the proponents of brexit will make good on their promises around trade.
Many of us wondered how they had planned for this scenario but had many explicit assurances about equivalent or better trading terms being available to the UK post-brexit. Now it's time for them to deliver the goods and they've only got a very limited time to do so.
Don't say that! Many of us wondered how they had planned for this scenario but had many explicit assurances about equivalent or better trading terms being available to the UK post-brexit. Now it's time for them to deliver the goods and they've only got a very limited time to do so.
The Leave voters on here all knew there would be no special trade relationship and that the economy would take a battering, apparently.
But they are prepared to live with that. Not clear why.
All up for grabs then, in the best interests of the UK (including NI of course).
///ajd said:
None of them had anything on the Single Market, Customs Union and Immigration Control either, did they?
All up for grabs then, in the best interests of the UK (including NI of course).
Are you stupid ... All up for grabs then, in the best interests of the UK (including NI of course).
The question was LEAVE OR remain part of the EU
we voted out and like being in a tunnel we can now see light ..
///ajd said:
London424 said:
Not sure which thread had the argument about EU nationals in the NHS. Some figures.
https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/9318669631...
The figures do not appear to reflect published reality. It suggests there are 20,000 Nurses in the UK - not saying if they are from EU or wherever.https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/9318669631...
Reality = Nurses & midwives in the UK - May 2017
582,628 (84.7%) from the UK
37,442 (5.4%) from the EU/EEA
67,439 (9.8%) from outside the EU/EEA
Source - Nursing & Midwivery Council
The issue was never about actual numbers anyway, it was about EU applications plummeting from hundreds/month to tens/month.
What is Frazer trying to do with his tweet, one wonders? Who will fall for it? Is he from St Petersburg?
No-one falls for misleading tweets - I read it here earlier.
Edited by ///ajd on Saturday 18th November 16:02
Edited by ///ajd on Saturday 18th November 16:06
Source
king arthur said:
Yes, it helps as it still shows the massive tail off in applications, but is presented in a way to fool brexiteers that there is no real story.It works on some, clearly.
The asymptotic graph tells the real story. When applications have jumped back to hundreds of applications / month, then the story can be debunked as a non-enduring blip.
Robertj21a said:
Not at all, it seems that you have though
I know you think you're terribly clever, but please try to be civil. I made the point that Leavers on here claim to have voted Leave in full knowledge of the likely economic harm.
Your response that you didn't get to vote on the economy either misses the point entirely or is stupid. Of course you didn't get to vote on the economy. But you and others claim not to have been tricked into thinking that trade would go on as before. If you voted with your eyes open, you must have anticipated economic harm if Leave were to win.
PRTVR said:
Apart from the EU will not allow you to cherry pick what you want, so it's leave or remain, democratically we voted to leave.
The thing is that the EU COULD allow the UK to cherry pick to a degree. They have history of doing just that. Canada has FTA without FOM. Switzerland have "priority to CH citizens over EU ones" with FTA and Shengen. There's no reason they couldn't give us everything we want. I know they won't. They SHOULD have done that with Dave in Feb 16. But imagine if they came to us in February 19 and said "Don't go! We will do you a special deal for everything you want, less freedom of movement, (since we know that was a MAJOR factor to a lot of people) and also you keep a veto on anything you don't like. (Military integration, More Europe b
ks) BUT you keep paying in £12bn a year guaranteed for 100 years"I'd actually countenance a second referendum on that! laugh:
Never happen though.
I voted leave knowing that noboby would know what would happen with the economy, nobody can really. But, I can say that all those that said there would be awful things happening post a Brexit vote, like a massive recession (Eddie Izzard etc) were hopelessly wrong. Record growth, record low unemployment etc...
> So make some predictions and I await them being disproved...
> So make some predictions and I await them being disproved...
ORD said:
I made the point that Leavers on here claim to have voted Leave in full knowledge of the likely economic harm.
Rich_W said:
The thing is that the EU COULD allow the UK to cherry pick to a degree. They have history of doing just that. Canada has FTA without FOM. Switzerland have "priority to CH citizens over EU ones" with FTA and Shengen.
There's no reason they couldn't give us everything we want. I know they won't. They SHOULD have done that with Dave in Feb 16. But imagine if they came to us in February 19 and said "Don't go! We will do you a special deal for everything you want, less freedom of movement, (since we know that was a MAJOR factor to a lot of people) and also you keep a veto on anything you don't like. (Military integration, More Europe bks) BUT you keep paying in £12bn a year guaranteed for 100 years"
I'd actually countenance a second referendum on that! laugh:
Never happen though.
We already had a veto on all the big stuff.There's no reason they couldn't give us everything we want. I know they won't. They SHOULD have done that with Dave in Feb 16. But imagine if they came to us in February 19 and said "Don't go! We will do you a special deal for everything you want, less freedom of movement, (since we know that was a MAJOR factor to a lot of people) and also you keep a veto on anything you don't like. (Military integration, More Europe b
ks) BUT you keep paying in £12bn a year guaranteed for 100 years"I'd actually countenance a second referendum on that! laugh:
Never happen though.
So you'd stay in if we could just change immigration?
I wonder how many others would admit that.
///ajd said:
We already had a veto on all the big stuff.
So you'd stay in if we could just change immigration?
I wonder how many others would admit that.
Our veto wasn't ever a big enough stick considering the size, power and financial clout of the UK. It wasn't good enough. We could be overruled quite easily. Yes, that makes it "true democracy" but it ignores the fact that German policy tends to get what it wants. When was the last time a change proposed by Germany got Veto'd?So you'd stay in if we could just change immigration?
I wonder how many others would admit that.
https://fullfact.org/europe/british-influence-eu-c...
Immigration was not the ONLY reason I voted to Leave. As I've said before "Love most of Europe, Hate all the EU"
HOWEVER. It was a thing for many and it definitely contributed to Leave winning. And those concerns don't make people "Racist" If you manage all immigration correctly, it's fine. No one really cared prior to Blair and 97 But there has always been migration to the UK. In '97 it was 48K by '07 It was 270K per year!
https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-mi...
For many, it was too much too quickly. Now you can blame Government policy (Blair/Brown) for that. But the EU never really addressed Freedom of Movement in a way to appease those concerns. And there was no appetite to do so. All mass movement of people from low paid areas to high paid areas is it converges in the middle. Great for the low paid countries. Bit s
t for those in the better ones! That's just basic economics. Especially when you chuck in the Euro currency which "helps" make it all mediocre.It needed to be reworked to a system similar to Switzerlands recent change. Priority to UK residents, applications welcome from the rest of the block. But as with Australia or loads of other countries. You cant emigrate without a job to go to that meets a certain requirement set by Government. Public services NHS etc. Not just more sodding illiterate, non English speaking car cleaners working on zero hours contracts doing work for less that NMW!
But once the population feel there's a problem the correct course is to address it. Not label people xenophobic etc. That gets peoples backs up! And then it becomes "a thing" And then they will vote to stop it anyway they can.
Rich_W said:
The thing is that the EU COULD allow the UK to cherry pick to a degree. They have history of doing just that. Canada has FTA without FOM. Switzerland have "priority to CH citizens over EU ones" with FTA and Shengen.
There's no reason they couldn't give us everything we want. I know they won't. They SHOULD have done that with Dave in Feb 16. But imagine if they came to us in February 19 and said "Don't go! We will do you a special deal for everything you want, less freedom of movement, (since we know that was a MAJOR factor to a lot of people) and also you keep a veto on anything you don't like. (Military integration, More Europe bks) BUT you keep paying in £12bn a year guaranteed for 100 years"
I'd actually countenance a second referendum on that! laugh:
Never happen though.
They could but won't. The Swiss issue has been an almighty pain in the arse for the EU with multiple escalations and problems especially around FOM. They won't repeat it again especially with an economy the size of the U.K. Essentially there is a limited menu of a) EEA with all that goes with that b) a limited FTA ala Canuckland. As an ardent leaver I'm not too bothered which route is taken as either will be hugely disruptive (did anyone really believe leaving this mess was going to be simple?) but will be the first point in 60 odd years where the direction of travel is against supranationalism which is hugely significant. A collapse into no deal territory would be a bad thing. In short get us out of this monstrosity by which ever means is practicable.There's no reason they couldn't give us everything we want. I know they won't. They SHOULD have done that with Dave in Feb 16. But imagine if they came to us in February 19 and said "Don't go! We will do you a special deal for everything you want, less freedom of movement, (since we know that was a MAJOR factor to a lot of people) and also you keep a veto on anything you don't like. (Military integration, More Europe b
ks) BUT you keep paying in £12bn a year guaranteed for 100 years"I'd actually countenance a second referendum on that! laugh:
Never happen though.
jsf said:
That's pretty much the size of it, that's not the same as saying they are OK with a hard border.
It rather is you know, and this is what gives the game away:"(2) Continuation of the Common Travel Area arrangements, in conformity with European
Union law, should be recognised. The United Kingdom has expressed its readiness to
ensure that the Common Travel Area can continue to operate without compromising
Ireland's ability to honour its obligations as a European Union Member State, including
in relation to free movement for European Economic Area nationals to and from Ireland."
Fair play to Rich and John for the posts above.
I may not agree with the analysis of why immigration is bad thing, but I respect your honesty in suggesting if we altered that alone it may have an impact on the mood for brexit.
Interesting that even a swiss model might be good enough for the UK to feel it has control.
I may not agree with the analysis of why immigration is bad thing, but I respect your honesty in suggesting if we altered that alone it may have an impact on the mood for brexit.
Interesting that even a swiss model might be good enough for the UK to feel it has control.
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