How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[Robertj21a]

ORD said:

Robertj21a said:

Not at all, it seems that you have though

I know you think you're terribly clever, but please try to be civil.

I made the point that Leavers on here claim to have voted Leave in full knowledge of the likely economic harm.

Your response that you didn't get to vote on the economy either misses the point entirely or is stupid. Of course you didn't get to vote on the economy. But you and others claim not to have been tricked into thinking that trade would go on as before. If you voted with your eyes open, you must have anticipated economic harm if Leave were to win.

I think that, yet again, you should not make assumptions about other people.

Where on earth have I not been civil ? - it's you who now suggests that I'm missing the point, or stupid !

Where have I suggested that I thought trade would go on as before ?

I really do think you need to open your eyes much wider if you honestly believe that I, and others, who voted to Leave were *primarily* voting with a concern about the economy. If you really do think that then you're seriously out of touch with a significant proportion of the UK.

What I have said before, but I'll repeat it for you again, is that many people (myself included) voted on one primary issue - we do not want to be a part of the EU, and particularly not within some 'ever greater union'. I voted to Leave so that my family, and all other future generations, will not find themselves tied in to an organisation which will struggle to survive. We were given an opportunity to get out now so, hardly surprisingly, many of us took it. I'm still amazed that the vote outside London/SE etc wasn't even higher. If you can't understand this simple point then I can see why you find other issues so difficult.

I fully expect there to be an economic impact on the UK for up to, say, 10 years. My personal view is that it won't be as dramatic as many 'experts' would have us believe - but I may well be terribly wrong (as they may also be). Given that we've hardly negotiated anything much so far then I guess none of us can really know more at present.

[mike9009]

John145 said:

///ajd said:

We already had a veto on all the big stuff.

So you'd stay in if we could just change immigration?

I wonder how many others would admit that.

Enough for a remain win imo. Just goes to show how much a little bit of self governance matters.

I agree, I suspect a concession on immigration would have swung the vote - at least with most leave voters I know. (I realise the demographic of PH is slightly different though......)

[powerstroke]

mike9009 said:

John145 said:

///ajd said:

We already had a veto on all the big stuff.

So you'd stay in if we could just change immigration?

I wonder how many others would admit that.

Enough for a remain win imo. Just goes to show how much a little bit of self governance matters.

I agree, I suspect a concession on immigration would have swung the vote - at least with most leave voters I know. (I realise the demographic of PH is slightly different though......)

I agree , Joe and Joana average don't understand or care about sovereignty and the higher issues around the EU , they do however see the damage of uncontrolled immigration to their way of life , wages and their kids futures ,

[///ajd]

mike9009 said:

John145 said:

///ajd said:

We already had a veto on all the big stuff.

So you'd stay in if we could just change immigration?

I wonder how many others would admit that.

Enough for a remain win imo. Just goes to show how much a little bit of self governance matters.

I agree, I suspect a concession on immigration would have swung the vote - at least with most leave voters I know. (I realise the demographic of PH is slightly different though......)

It would be interesting to see if - hypothetically - the EU offered some sort of increased control on free movement - then a changed membership solution could be secured.

It could even extend to better control of contributions - the UK to aim to wind back the scale of contributions which are high. I don't see these as sacred or that they should be a massive issue for the EU - they just delay those new fire engines a few years or indefinitely.

[PurpleMoonlight]

powerstroke said:

I agree , Joe and Joana average don't understand or care about sovereignty and the higher issues around the EU , they do however see the damage of uncontrolled immigration to their way of life , wages and their kids futures ,

Nobody else on the council estate speaks English?

[paulrockliffe]

mike9009 said:

John145 said:

///ajd said:

We already had a veto on all the big stuff.

So you'd stay in if we could just change immigration?

I wonder how many others would admit that.

Enough for a remain win imo. Just goes to show how much a little bit of self governance matters.

I agree, I suspect a concession on immigration would have swung the vote - at least with most leave voters I know. (I realise the demographic of PH is slightly different though......)

I put a link to Tim Shipman's book up when it was 99p on Amazon, I just finished it last night.

It's really good and very interesting and gives you a lot of information to allow you to see what really went on. There were lots of things that could have swung it, but on immigration the fundamental problem was that Cameron never asked the question of the EU, he never forced them to confront the question of whether they'd rather the UK left or whether they'd rather compromise on FOM.

I think there was also an understandable mistake from the EUs side, they trusted Cameron to manage the issue because they had bigger problems and they didn't (and still don't) respect the idea that a member could leave. They should have had their own ideas of what they needed to do to stop a leave vote and offered enough regardless of whether Cameron asked or not. Maybe the EU couldn't offer what was required politically, I don't know, but trusting Dave to manage the issue for them was clearly a mistake.

Maybe it would have swung it at the time, but I doubt it would now. The most vocal on here aren't representative of the wider country, people have seen that Project Fear was nonsense and that was all the Remain argument was, we've also seen a lot more of what the EU is in their response to our vote. I'm sure attitudes have firmed up for leaving as a result.

[voyds9]

ORD said:

I know you think you're terribly clever, but please try to be civil.

I made the point that Leavers on here claim to have voted Leave in full knowledge of the likely economic harm.

Your response that you didn't get to vote on the economy either misses the point entirely or is stupid. Of course you didn't get to vote on the economy. But you and others claim not to have been tricked into thinking that trade would go on as before. If you voted with your eyes open, you must have anticipated economic harm if Leave were to win.

I voted leave in the full knowledge that I didn't know where we would be in 10 years time but secure in the knowledge that if I had voted remain I would still have no knowledge of where we would be in 10 years time.

The EU is not immutable it does change over time and we (UK) had very little control of the direction it could/would take.

At least every few years we get a vote on the make up of parliament based on their manifestos so we have some illusion of control.

[///ajd]

powerstroke said:

I agree , Joe and Joana average don't understand or care about sovereignty and the higher issues around the EU , they do however see the damage of uncontrolled immigration to their way of life , wages and their kids futures ,

This reinforces how important it is to have solid facts on the impact of immigration.

[Robertj21a]

///ajd said:

powerstroke said:

I agree , Joe and Joana average don't understand or care about sovereignty and the higher issues around the EU , they do however see the damage of uncontrolled immigration to their way of life , wages and their kids futures ,

This reinforces how important it is to have solid facts on the impact of immigration.

For many, it's not immigration that's the key issue, it's UNCONTROLLED immigration.

[///ajd]

paulrockliffe said:

Maybe it would have swung it at the time, but I doubt it would now. The most vocal on here aren't representative of the wider country, people have seen that Project Fear was nonsense and that was all the Remain argument was, we've also seen a lot more of what the EU is in their response to our vote. I'm sure attitudes have firmed up for leaving as a result.

I'm really not sure where this confidence that "remain was just nonsense project fear" comes from. Is this all just based on the immediate recession not happening?

Day by day the concerns over NI and the impact on our economy from a hard WTO exit are laid out.

These are no longer looking to influence a vote - these are real concerns over the impact of how brexit will be delivered.

And I despair at the notion that "no one can know what will happen so it is pointless to look ahead". This is just gambling. It is worth looking at the odds, and they are stacked against us in a WTO outcome.

Edited by ///ajd on Sunday 19th November 09:28

[johnxjsc1985]

///ajd said:

This reinforces how important it is to have solid facts on the impact of immigration.

since when did you bother with facts most of your posts describe a doomsday scenario.
You also give the impression that life has always been nice and smooth with a growing economy good housing and rising wages and that leaving the EU will destroy all of this.

[ORD]

Nope - the UK was in a fairly bad way as it was, but it was at least tolerably stable. It's now in a bad way and also heading for massive disruption.

Leavers also disregard the point that, not entirely unpredictably, the Leave vote is likely to get Corbyn into No. 10.

[johnxjsc1985]

Vote remain vote for "Tolerably stable". Not much ambition for the next generation is there, your future will be more or less stable nothing more nothing less don't be getting above your station and wanting to do well in life.
Despite the clouds outside the Sun did rise today the shops are open people are going about their daily routines.
Whilst the negotiations are taking place do you think Businesses up and down the Country are waiting for the Government to tell them to prepare for free trade with the rest of the world.
There are no negotiations going on only the EU trying to protect its "project". Can you imagine if the UK does really well after being unshackled it would cause major problems for many EU countries that are struggling within the EU. The EU want us to fail miserably that is their negotiation position.

[ORD]

johnxjsc1985 said:

Vote remain vote for "Tolerably stable". Not much ambition for the next generation is there, your future will be more or less stable nothing more nothing less don't be getting above your station and wanting to do well in life.
Despite the clouds outside the Sun did rise today the shops are open people are going about their daily routines.
Whilst the negotiations are taking place do you think Businesses up and down the Country are waiting for the Government to tell them to prepare for free trade with the rest of the world.
There are no negotiations going on only the EU trying to protect its "project". Can you imagine if the UK does really well after being unshackled it would cause major problems for many EU countries that are struggling within the EU. The EU want us to fail miserably that is their negotiation position.

If the next generation does as well as this, that's huge success.

Brexiteer optimism is the result of astonishing naivety. Free trade with ROW? Absolute nonsense. Even the slightest effort in terms of research and thinking would tell you that.

[vonuber]

voyds9 said:

The EU is not immutable it does change over time and we (UK) had very little control of the direction it could/would take.

Surely the question should be why (if it is indeed true).
We were nominally the second biggest country economically, so why were we not as powerful as Germany supposedly is?

[Pan Pan Pan]

Of course all the piigs countries are, were, and always have been doing so swimmingly well, even though they are signed up members of the EU. what will the EU do when the second greatest net contributor of funds into its coffers after Germany leaves I wonder?

[ORD]

It's genuinely shocking that anyone competent enough to use a computer thinks the UK is going to secure EU-like trade deals with ROW. Which of the major trading nations do you expect to want to sign up to no customs duty and/or regulatory equivalence rules with the UK (and for the UK to want to agree to that):

The USA? Literally zero chance
China? Literally zero chance
Any developing nation? Roughly zero chance

You were seriously misled if you thought any of the 'trade more with ROW' stuff was anything but gibberish aimed at the gullible and ill-informed.

[///ajd]

ORD said:

It's genuinely shocking that anyone competent enough to use a computer thinks the UK is going to secure EU-like trade deals with ROW. Which of the major trading nations do you expect to want to sign up to no customs duty and/or regulatory equivalence rules with the UK (and for the UK to want to agree to that):

The USA? Literally zero chance
China? Literally zero chance
Any developing nation? Roughly zero chance

You were seriously misled if you thought any of the 'trade more with ROW' stuff was anything but gibberish aimed at the gullible and ill-informed.

Indeed. Not much sign of any pennies dropping though.

Hammond on Peston now.

"Greater the level of access to current EU markets we can get, the better".

"Why throw away existing markets (in EU) if we can do a deal"

"Confident that we will get a deal that works"

[PurpleMoonlight]

ORD said:

It's genuinely shocking that anyone competent enough to use a computer thinks the UK is going to secure EU-like trade deals with ROW. Which of the major trading nations do you expect to want to sign up to no customs duty and/or regulatory equivalence rules with the UK (and for the UK to want to agree to that):

The USA? Literally zero chance
China? Literally zero chance
Any developing nation? Roughly zero chance

You were seriously misled if you thought any of the 'trade more with ROW' stuff was anything but gibberish aimed at the gullible and ill-informed.

Haven't India, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand all expressed an interest already?

[Eddie Strohacker]

jsf said:

The EU, UK and Eire don't agree with you. They are treating this issue as different to the rest of the block. You know this, so why are you suggesting this isn't the case?

Unless you are a child, you know this is everyone's problem to find a solution to and without the acceptance of that the problem wont be solved.

As I've said numerous times now, all that is required is the political will and it will be sorted out in short order, but they wont do that yet because they are trying to use Ireland as a bargaining chip to the wider issue of money.

At least be honest about it Eddie, if you continue to suggest this isn't a one off situation that all parties have agreed to work on as a separate issue to the main negotiation, then you will have to be put in my ignore box whenever this issue comes up, along with everyone else who continues to peddle the idea that this isn't being treated as a stand alone problem.

Remarkable. First of all it's bloc, not block. Secondly it's childish to call someone a child. Thirdly, you replace practical difficulty with the phrase 'political will' in a transparently facile discounting of the consequences of leave voters responsibilities & with laughable self importance threaten me with an ignore box whatever that is. I love a self appointed Brexit arbiter of what does & doesn't get read.

Once we've put that pile of egotistical nonsense outside where it belongs, you make one substantive point which is the EU making proper regard to the political sensitivities of Northern Ireland, and so they should but I would bet my mortgage if you were to look back over these threads prior to the vote, you would find barely a single reference to Northern Ireland, so my original point stands, you voted for this mess, you own it.