How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[Mrr T]

London424 said:

Mrr T said:

jsf said:

Eddie Strohacker said:

jsf said:

Barnier has just said in a speech that if the UK chooses to diverse its economy away from the EU model any trade deal will not be ratified.

So there we have it, you cant leave and be a competitor, they will only sign a deal if it hamstrings the UK.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/93256918949...

What a farce this referendum wais.

EFA



Can't have your cake & eat it as most of us on the right side of this mentalness have said all along.

If that position stands on the EU side, WTO here we come. No UK government will agree to tie its hands like that.

That will be fun. Planes not taking off, channel crossing closed, Kent covered in lorries, Ireland in up roar, government facing motion of no confidence.

It does amuse me team leave kept saying the Uk would have such a strong position in the negotiations we would have our cake and eat it.

It now seems the rEU has us by the b@@@ and is deciding to squeeze.

And the EU will be toast. Along with pretty much every single country in it.

They will be effected, German a lot, but compared to the Uk they will be no more than a little singed.

[JagLover]

jsf said:

I don't think it will change anything in the process, but he gave the game away, so lets see what that does to the debate in the public domain.
.

He did indeed

All the countless stories about how we need to agree a deal to retain passporting, otherwise we will lose 70,000 or so City jobs.

Even if we paid them every penny they want we still aren't getting such a deal. Why exactly should we pay a massive Brexit bill in order to safeguard the EU's large surplus in goods trade with us?

[paulrockliffe]

This is expectation management, exactly the same as they did with Cameron's negotiation. Make it sound like you'll give nothing and you won't be asked to give anything to save the embarrassment of a no.

To be fair, it worked perfectly with Cameron. Well except that as a result we voted to leave of course. You'd think they'd have realised by now that regardless of what agreement the make with our politicians, the people will have their say in the end.

Is now the time to turn the Euro Clearing computers off for an hour or two?

[hyphen]

Mrr T said:

That will be fun. Planes not taking off, channel crossing closed, Kent covered in lorries, Ireland in up roar, government facing motion of no confidence.

It does amuse me team leave kept saying the Uk would have such a strong position in the negotiations we would have our cake and eat it.

It now seems the rEU has us by the b@@@ and is deciding to squeeze.

Will Ireland be ok with this? When their ferries are not getting in to its biggest market that takes 50% of its exports? Where it gets nearly all of its oil and also nearly all of its gas?

Will the Germans be happy to pay them for their losses, and start shipping fuel over to them?

The Eu does not have us by the b@@@, as countries go, no one would say the UK was a powerless minnow.

So go play somewhere else

[London424]

Mrr T said:

London424 said:

Mrr T said:

jsf said:

Eddie Strohacker said:

jsf said:

Barnier has just said in a speech that if the UK chooses to diverse its economy away from the EU model any trade deal will not be ratified.

So there we have it, you cant leave and be a competitor, they will only sign a deal if it hamstrings the UK.

https://twitter.com/JamesCrisp6/status/93256918949...

What a farce this referendum wais.

EFA



Can't have your cake & eat it as most of us on the right side of this mentalness have said all along.

If that position stands on the EU side, WTO here we come. No UK government will agree to tie its hands like that.

That will be fun. Planes not taking off, channel crossing closed, Kent covered in lorries, Ireland in up roar, government facing motion of no confidence.

It does amuse me team leave kept saying the Uk would have such a strong position in the negotiations we would have our cake and eat it.

It now seems the rEU has us by the b@@@ and is deciding to squeeze.

And the EU will be toast. Along with pretty much every single country in it.

They will be effected, German a lot, but compared to the Uk they will be no more than a little singed.

Italy is already teetering...a tiny little nudge and the banks go boom. That contagion will bring down a lot of other countries.

[Tuna]

ORD said:

Mrr T said:

That will be fun. Planes not taking off, channel crossing closed, Kent covered in lorries, Ireland in up roar, government facing motion of no confidence.

It does amuse me team leave kept saying the Uk would have such a strong position in the negotiations we would have our cake and eat it.

It now seems the rEU has us by the b@@@ and is deciding to squeeze.

There are intelligent Leave voters, of course. But they have hitched their wagon to those of some of the most blisteringly stupid politicians in history. Davis and his mates are astonishingly dim.

The current negotiating stance of the EU is worthy of a cartoon.

UK: "We'd like to negotiate a deal with a positive outcome for both of us"

EU: "First, you must agree to cut your leg off"

UK: "What, cut our...?"

EU: "Cut if off, or we'll shoot ourselves in the head! And then we'll shoot you!"

There is some level of Stockholm Syndrome going on for anyone to regard the current EU position as anything other than ridiculous. As with Merkel there seems to be a belief that if they force everyone else to sit in the same room as them long enough, eventually they'll all agree to completely abandon their principles.

[anonymous-user]

ORD said:

He doesnt know as much about this country as we do.

And he of course has to take it seriously given that it is hugely important.

We can afford to be a bit more realistic and ask ourselves what chance a "slash and burn" government would have of re-election in this country. It would be wiped off the electoral map.

If they don't deliver a Brexit that allows UK to benefit from leaving, effectively still remaining, they will be toast.

[Murph7355]

ORD said:

...
There are intelligent Leave voters, of course. But they have hitched their wagon to those of some of the most blisteringly stupid politicians in history. ...

Our wagon has been hitched to those for about the last 44yrs. They are far from all British.

[Dr Jekyll]

ORD said:

Dr Jekyll said:

Barnier obviously doesn't think it's laughable, he thinks it's a real threat.

He doesnt know as much about this country as we do.

And he of course has to take it seriously given that it is hugely important.

We can afford to be a bit more realistic and ask ourselves what chance a "slash and burn" government would have of re-election in this country. It would be wiped off the electoral map.

If by 'slash and burn' you mean reduce tax and deregulate, rather the reverse. We could get cheaper food immediately and other economic benefits would be apparent within months.

[Mrr T]

London424 said:

Italy is already teetering...a tiny little nudge and the banks go boom. That contagion will bring down a lot of other countries.

That’s your view. Since Italy is part of the unanimous rEU negotiating position I assume they disagree.

[Mrr T]

paulrockliffe said:

Is now the time to turn the Euro Clearing computers off for an hour or two?

The shareholders of the LSE may object.

As for post brexit, as I have said, this will not be an issue LCH will have a model in place to service its rEU clients.

[paulrockliffe]

Mrr T said:

paulrockliffe said:

Is now the time to turn the Euro Clearing computers off for an hour or two?

The shareholders of the LSE may object.

As for post brexit, as I have said, this will not be an issue LCH will have a model in place to service its rEU clients.

I'm not entirely serious, though I don't think the EU are either. But is the LCH model not still reliant on infrastructure in London?

[ORD]

Dr Jekyll said:

If by 'slash and burn' you mean reduce tax and deregulate, rather the reverse. We could get cheaper food immediately and other economic benefits would be apparent within months.

Tell that the increasingly left-wing, high spend British public. No chance or right wing utopia.

[souper]

Mrs Sway is thinking of doubling the payment to £40b, that woman is useless, reminds me of Neville Chamberlain an Appeaser.

Theresa the Appeaser...

[hyphen]

souper said:

Mrs Sway is thinking of doubling the payment to £40b, that woman is useless, reminds me of Neville Chamberlain an Appeaser.

Theresa the Appeaser...

I don't like the way this keeps getting leaked, if she was going to put an offer she should have kept it quiet and made the off on the last day of this so called 2 weeks deadline to keep them squirming.

I think with the likes of Gove in the cabinet now, the £40bn will only be paid if we are getting sufficient in return, so headline number doesn't worry me.

Edited by hyphen on Monday 20th November 12:43

[JagLover]

Tuna said:

There is some level of Stockholm Syndrome going on for anyone to regard the current EU position as anything other than ridiculous. As with Merkel there seems to be a belief that if they force everyone else to sit in the same room as them long enough, eventually they'll all agree to completely abandon their principles.

The EUs position makes sense to them, namely that we must be demonstrably worse off for leaving in order to deter any others.

They believe the UK government must fold because, despite the fact we are leaving, our politicians and civil servants should continue to put the EU project in front of the national interest.

Given how reluctant many seem to be to even prepare for a no deal scenario, despite it now being the most likely scenario, they may well be right to make such an assumption.

[alfie2244]

[Mrr T]

paulrockliffe said:

Mrr T said:

paulrockliffe said:

Is now the time to turn the Euro Clearing computers off for an hour or two?

The shareholders of the LSE may object.

As for post brexit, as I have said, this will not be an issue LCH will have a model in place to service its rEU clients.

I'm not entirely serious, though I don't think the EU are either. But is the LCH model not still reliant on infrastructure in London?

LCH has already said it is opening offices in the rEU. On the loss of passporting its sales staff will defiantly need to be in the rEU. The rest are regulatory questions and I do not know the answers.

It maybe they can still sell the UK CCP. If not I am sure LCH will have a rEU resident CCP ready for brexit.

Can the new CCP in the rEU use the UK based computer systems?

If not I am sure. If not LCH will just set up another version in the rEU.

The fact is if LCH was not able to service rEU customers post brexit it would suffer serious fincial damage.

So as I have said before there are lots of well built, tanned, senior vice presidents in FS currently working to make sure when we lose passporting we will still be able to service our rEU customers.

[PurpleMoonlight]

alfie2244 said:

[London424]

Mrr T said:

London424 said:

Italy is already teetering...a tiny little nudge and the banks go boom. That contagion will bring down a lot of other countries.

That’s your view. Since Italy is part of the unanimous rEU negotiating position I assume they disagree.

I guess we will see shortly enough when Italy have their election on whether the people believe the current government have the correct position.