How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[PurpleMoonlight]

Jockman said:

I thought the EU was after suitable progress rather than a fully decided bill? Did I mishear Barnier?

I agree they do want significant progress, but of course we don't know what 'significant' is.

My guess is the divorce bill needs to be agreed. NI and citizens can continue to be discussed along side trade.

[sidicks]

p1stonhead said:

Just because there are mutual benefits, doesnt mean one does not benefit more.

HTH.

Neither did I suggest any such thing.

I’m asking again, who benefits more from EU companies selling goods and services into the UK?

[PurpleMoonlight]

sidicks said:

So there’s no logic behind it then. Thanks for the confirmation.

There is logic.

They don't want to be accused of blackmailing us for a decent trade deal.

[Jockman]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Jockman said:

I thought the EU was after suitable progress rather than a fully decided bill? Did I mishear Barnier?

I agree they do want significant progress, but of course we don't know what 'significant' is.

My guess is the divorce bill needs to be agreed. NI and citizens can continue to be discussed along side trade.

That's the word - significant.

I think once the UK hits a certain trigger point we will move on. UK has already stated no EU country will face financial loss due to brexit so we can't be too far apart.

[sidicks]

PurpleMoonlight said:

There is logic.

They don't want to be accused of blackmailing us for a decent trade deal.

And refusing to discuss a trade deal until we’ve agreed the divorce payment achieves that how? It seems blackmail is exactly what they are trying to do!

[PurpleMoonlight]

sidicks said:

And refusing to discuss a trade deal until we’ve agreed the divorce payment achieves that how? It seems blackmail is exactly what they are trying to do!

Sorry, not playing your silly games.

[sidicks]

PurpleMoonlight said:

sidicks said:

And refusing to discuss a trade deal until we’ve agreed the divorce payment achieves that how? It seems blackmail is exactly what they are trying to do!

Sorry, not playing your silly games.

Not discussing the issue, you mean?

Ok, that’s your perogative!

[gooner1]

p1stonhead said:

sidicks said:

p1stonhead said:

Because its not mutual. We need them a lot more than they need us.

What is the balance of trade between the UK and the rest of the EU?

p1stonheads said:

We need access to 'their' market remember. You seem to think this is an hillarious impossibility but the fact FORTY BILLION POUNDS are potentially going to be given to them just to talk about the possibility of us being able to access their market indicates you are probably wrong.

That’s nonsense, unless you believe that there are no legal obligations whatsoever for the UK.

p1stonheads said:

Maybe the £40b is what we actually owe, maybe its not. The fact that it seems to fluctuate wildly by billions (in the press granted and not 'officially') would suggest its just a negotiatable number.

Either that or those quoting the number have a hidden agenda.

Funny how;

1. They arent trying to desperately get us to talk about their access to our domestic market.
2. They have demanded we settle up this bill before they will even talk to us on trade we want with theirs.

Why dont we send them a bill to access our market! That'll show them. Or they wont give a damn.

gooner1 said:

p1stonhead said:

Because its not mutual. We need them a lot more than they need us.

We need access to 'their' market remember. You seem to think this is an hillarious impossibility but the fact FORTY BILLION POUNDS are potentially going to be given to them just to talk about the possibility of us being able to access their market indicates you are probably wrong.

Maybe the £40b is what we actually owe, maybe its not. The fact that it seems to fluctuate wildly by billions (in the press granted and not 'officially') would suggest its just a negotiatable number.

Then why don't the EU just come straight out and tell us how much the bill is?

Because it probably isnt a bill that can be quantified. It will just be paid quietly by May and we will be told to forget about it.

In that case it is'nt a bill at all,

[anonymous-user]

p1stonhead said:

Jockman said:

p1stonhead said:

Well one needs to happen before the other will be permitted. But they are seperate numbers unrelated to each other too.

Stop Digging.

Digging what. Im not the one who is delusional enough to think that the EU needs us as much as we need them.

Then why are they so exercised about us leaving?

[drainbrain]

REALIST123 said:

p1stonhead said:

Jockman said:

p1stonhead said:

Well one needs to happen before the other will be permitted. But they are seperate numbers unrelated to each other too.

Stop Digging.

Digging what. Im not the one who is delusional enough to think that the EU needs us as much as we need them.

Then why are they so exercised about us leaving?

Because it's an MAD scenario. Everyone a loser, including the EU who lose a big pillar of their edifice.

Meanwhile, the 'Brexodus' of young Poles has already begun to impact negatively.

Edited by drainbrain on Friday 24th November 14:58

[s2art]

drainbrain said:

Because it's an MAD scenario. Everyone a loser, including the EU who lose a big pillar of their edifice.

Meanwhile, the 'Brexodus' of young Poles has already begun to impact negatively.

Edited by drainbrain on Friday 24th November 14:58

Yet; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/15/number-...

[drainbrain]

s2art said:

Yet; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/15/number-...

Seems to be confirming less Poles. I'm hearing 1)a big drop in rate of new arrivals and 2) small but steady Brexodus.

Main reason for former is 100% Brexit vote.

Main reasons for latter seem to be improving prospects in Poland plus an element of feeling a bit less welcome than pre-Brexit.

[s2art]

drainbrain said:

Seems to be confirming less Poles. I'm hearing 1)a big drop in rate of new arrivals and 2) small but steady Brexodus.

Main reason for former is 100% Brexit vote.

Main reasons for latter seem to be improving prospects in Poland plus an element of feeling a bit less welcome than pre-Brexit.

Not convinced about Brexit vote reason. Seems just as likely to me that its the drop off in GDP growth rate and reduced job availabities that has reduced the rate of new arrivals, coupled to the weakness in sterling exchange rate.

[Zod]

sidicks said:

p1stonhead said:

Exactly. All of these people saying 'how much is our share of the assets!?' are just delusional. May will take a knee and pony up the cash to get things moving or she wont (she will).

Thats literally the only thing that will happen. We will never see a breakdown, never know exactly what its for, just write a stonking great cheque.

Why would we pay any more than our minimum legal obligation?

So what is that then?

[drainbrain]

s2art said:

Not convinced about Brexit vote reason. Seems just as likely to me that its the drop off in GDP growth rate and reduced job availabities that has reduced the rate of new arrivals, coupled to the weakness in sterling exchange rate.

Some might say sterling's current weakness was precipitated by the Brexit vote.

And funny you should say about job availabilities because I was with a Pendragon management type the other day who says they are urgently seeking 500 technicians (mechanics basically) and are offering current staff a £250 referral fee for anyone they can bring in. Heard others talking 'skills shortage' too along with decline in apprenticeships.

Wouldn't know how much movements in GDP growth rates influence the decision making of young prospective Polish migrants but doubt it's a primary influence.

What I can say for certain is that there are now far less young working Poles looking for accommodation than there have been in the past 10 years which is largely ascribed to the drastic slowdown in new arrivals by the Polish letting agent I know.

[s2art]

drainbrain said:

s2art said:

Not convinced about Brexit vote reason. Seems just as likely to me that its the drop off in GDP growth rate and reduced job availabities that has reduced the rate of new arrivals, coupled to the weakness in sterling exchange rate.

Some might say sterling's current weakness was precipitated by the Brexit vote.

And funny you should say about job availabilities because I was with a Pendragon management type the other day who says they are urgently seeking 500 technicians (mechanics basically) and are offering current staff a £250 referral fee for anyone they can bring in. Heard others talking 'skills shortage' too along with decline in apprenticeships.

Wouldn't know how much movements in GDP growth rates influence the decision making of young prospective Polish migrants but doubt it's a primary influence.

What I can say for certain is that there are now far less young working Poles looking for accommodation than there have been in the past 10 years which is largely ascribed to the drastic slowdown in new arrivals by the Polish letting agent I know.

I agree that the Brexit vote precipitated the drop in sterling, but well before then the big international institutes were saying Sterling was approx 15% overvalued. So the drop would have happened anyway. If prospects in Poland are improving and given Germany is doing well and needs young immigrants then its not surprising Poles are looking elsewhere.

[anonymous-user]

s2art said:

drainbrain said:

Seems to be confirming less Poles. I'm hearing 1)a big drop in rate of new arrivals and 2) small but steady Brexodus.

Main reason for former is 100% Brexit vote.

Main reasons for latter seem to be improving prospects in Poland plus an element of feeling a bit less welcome than pre-Brexit.

Not convinced about Brexit vote reason. Seems just as likely to me that its the drop off in GDP growth rate and reduced job availabities that has reduced the rate of new arrivals, coupled to the weakness in sterling exchange rate.

There are multiple drivers to migration movements.

If you have moved to a country to generate savings to use back in the home country long term, then your home country begins to offer good prospects and the exchange rate removes the ability to build that wealth pot or subsidise your family in the home country, you are going to rethink your position.

I would be amazed if migration movement doesn't alter when circumstances change, that's something you always see.

UK is still seeing a huge increase in numbers year on year, there is no reduced rate of new arrivals, what will change is the source of the migrants changes as the balance of benefit to the migrants changes, this has always been the case for hundreds of years.

[drainbrain]

jsf said:

There are multiple drivers to migration movements.

If you have moved to a country to generate savings to use back in the home country long term, then your home country begins to offer good prospects and the exchange rate removes the ability to build that wealth pot or subsidise your family in the home country, you are going to rethink your position.

I would be amazed if migration movement doesn't alter when circumstances change, that's something you always see.

UK is still seeing a huge increase in numbers year on year, there is no reduced rate of new arrivals, what will change is the source of the migrants changes as the balance of benefit to the migrants changes, this has always been the case for hundreds of years.

Agree with all of that, although my Polish pal says that on his last recent visit to Poland the biggest change he noticed was the huge increase in 'staff wanted' notices.

On the emboldened bit I also agree, but the reality appears to be that the current influx are of a quite different and lower calibre than before. Very few Poles came here to do nothing, avoid integration, and form into Polish ghettos. They all seem keen to work, they integrate very rapidly and easily and I have no experience or hearsay of Polish ghettos. Their immigration numbers are rapidly declining.

The current influx are not the same at all. Zero integration, almost entirely joining expanding ghettos, and visible clusters of exclusively males of all ages hanging around street corners like the worst of our homegrown underclass in a posture of hostility and aura of criminality. In fact, isn't this the very type of immigration Brexit was supposed to address?

[s2art]

drainbrain said:

The current influx are not the same at all. Zero integration, almost entirely joining expanding ghettos, and visible clusters of exclusively males of all ages hanging around street corners like the worst of our homegrown underclass in a posture of hostility and aura of criminality. In fact, isn't this the very type of immigration Brexit was supposed to address?

Once Brexited, it will.

[PRTVR]

drainbrain said:

jsf said:

There are multiple drivers to migration movements.

If you have moved to a country to generate savings to use back in the home country long term, then your home country begins to offer good prospects and the exchange rate removes the ability to build that wealth pot or subsidise your family in the home country, you are going to rethink your position.

I would be amazed if migration movement doesn't alter when circumstances change, that's something you always see.

UK is still seeing a huge increase in numbers year on year, there is no reduced rate of new arrivals, what will change is the source of the migrants changes as the balance of benefit to the migrants changes, this has always been the case for hundreds of years.

Agree with all of that, although my Polish pal says that on his last recent visit to Poland the biggest change he noticed was the huge increase in 'staff wanted' notices.

On the emboldened bit I also agree, but the reality appears to be that the current influx are of a quite different and lower calibre than before. Very few Poles came here to do nothing, avoid integration, and form into Polish ghettos. They all seem keen to work, they integrate very rapidly and easily and I have no experience or hearsay of Polish ghettos. Their immigration numbers are rapidly declining.

The current influx are not the same at all. Zero integration, almost entirely joining expanding ghettos, and visible clusters of exclusively males of all ages hanging around street corners like the worst of our homegrown underclass in a posture of hostility and aura of criminality. In fact, isn't this the very type of immigration Brexit was supposed to address?

it cannot till we have left, we are still bound by the freedom of movement laws.

Edited by PRTVR on Friday 24th November 17:09