How do we think EU negotiations will go?

How do we think EU negotiations will go?

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Sway

26,328 posts

195 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
andymadmak said:
mx-6 said:
Many of you leaver folks seem to consciously overlook the point that much of the EU supposed "red tape", the various directives and regulations, are for the purpose of harmonising standards, so facilitating ease of trade across Europe. In practice British companies will have to continue to produce products that are compliant with EU regulations if they want to trade them there .
Just as we do for the USA, China, Japan, Australia... the point being we can choose which costs of compliance we incur
Indeed.

Today, the products that are produced at my work, which are 90% of the time, must have a CE mark with all the documentation that goes with it. 70% of the time, we also have to do CCC certification with all the paperwork that that entails...

The Chinese aren't interested in the CE mark.

Sway

26,328 posts

195 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
ORD said:
Tuna said:
ORD said:
The FT and the Economist employ journalists that can think and do research.
I love the idea that thinking and doing research can only lead to one possible conclusion. Is that why you call anyone who disagrees with you an idiot?
Not the only one. Just the vastly more likely one.

And blindly asserting faith in something contrary to the evidence is idiocy. Stupid is as stupid does.

As for not believing economists, try this: if putting faith in experts that can deploy reasoned arguments (acknowledging that they sometimes get it wrong) makes you a sheep, I am a sheep. But preferring to ignore experts in favour of what you are told by BoJo and Gove and Farage (even when it is plain that they tried to deceive you) makes you something much worse than a sheep.

I am yet to hear 1 concrete benefit of leaving the EU. It doesn't have to be certain. Something likely would do.
Something almost guaranteed - food, clothing and footwear will be noticeably cheaper, without any trade deals, merely applying average WTO MFN import tariffs.

Benefitting every single person in the country directly.

Troubleatmill

10,210 posts

160 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
Sway said:
ORD said:
Tuna said:
ORD said:
The FT and the Economist employ journalists that can think and do research.
I love the idea that thinking and doing research can only lead to one possible conclusion. Is that why you call anyone who disagrees with you an idiot?
Not the only one. Just the vastly more likely one.

And blindly asserting faith in something contrary to the evidence is idiocy. Stupid is as stupid does.

As for not believing economists, try this: if putting faith in experts that can deploy reasoned arguments (acknowledging that they sometimes get it wrong) makes you a sheep, I am a sheep. But preferring to ignore experts in favour of what you are told by BoJo and Gove and Farage (even when it is plain that they tried to deceive you) makes you something much worse than a sheep.

I am yet to hear 1 concrete benefit of leaving the EU. It doesn't have to be certain. Something likely would do.
Something almost guaranteed - food, clothing and footwear will be noticeably cheaper, without any trade deals, merely applying average WTO MFN import tariffs.

Benefitting every single person in the country directly.
Your weekly shop should drop around 8-10% IIRC

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

158 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
Sway said:
Something almost guaranteed - food, clothing and footwear will be noticeably cheaper, without any trade deals, merely applying average WTO MFN import tariffs.

Benefitting every single person in the country directly.
Almost guaranteed by whom?

Any tariff on EU food imports will increase costs to the consumer.

Tariffs for non EU food imports may decrease, but the UK could mimic the EU charges.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

158 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
Sway said:
Indeed.

Today, the products that are produced at my work, which are 90% of the time, must have a CE mark with all the documentation that goes with it. 70% of the time, we also have to do CCC certification with all the paperwork that that entails...

The Chinese aren't interested in the CE mark.
Post Brexit you will likely have to do British kite (or whatever), CE and CCC then.

s2art

18,937 posts

254 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Any tariff on EU food imports will increase costs to the consumer.
Only if a) the customer insists on buying EU imports and b) The EU exporter doesnt absorb the costs to remain competitive.

Sway

26,328 posts

195 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
Indeed.

Today, the products that are produced at my work, which are 90% of the time, must have a CE mark with all the documentation that goes with it. 70% of the time, we also have to do CCC certification with all the paperwork that that entails...

The Chinese aren't interested in the CE mark.
Post Brexit you will likely have to do British kite (or whatever), CE and CCC then.
Unlikely. British Kite never applied to exports if not applicable, as long as you could demonstrate safety during production and commissioning...

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

158 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
s2art said:
Only if a) the customer insists on buying EU imports and b) The EU exporter doesnt absorb the costs to remain competitive.
The vast majority of consumers just buy what's on the shelf and doesn't care where it comes from.

Possibly the exporter will, initially at least, but over time we will end up paying it.

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

158 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
Sway said:
Unlikely. British Kite never applied to exports if not applicable, as long as you could demonstrate safety during production and commissioning...
You have no UK sales?

barryrs

4,392 posts

224 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
The vast majority of consumers just buy what's cheapest on the shelf and doesn't care where it comes from.

Possibly the exporter will, initially at least, but over time we will end up paying it.
If WTO terms make our food imports cheaper then thats what people will buy.

KarlMac

4,480 posts

142 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
Remoaners also seem to miss the point of a third option, it we can't buy it we could actually start making stuff again. How crazy does that sound?

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

87 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
The vast majority of consumers just buy what's on the shelf and doesn't care where it comes from.

Possibly the exporter will, initially at least, but over time we will end up paying it.
27&% roughly 23bn in 2016, interesting to note therefore, the offhand dismissal of the cost increase. More sunlit uplands with no justification behind them. Still, I quite like noodles, swings & roundabouts.

Sway

26,328 posts

195 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
Something almost guaranteed - food, clothing and footwear will be noticeably cheaper, without any trade deals, merely applying average WTO MFN import tariffs.

Benefitting every single person in the country directly.
Almost guaranteed by whom?

Any tariff on EU food imports will increase costs to the consumer.

Tariffs for non EU food imports may decrease, but the UK could mimic the EU charges.
EU food imports are ridiculously uncompetitive on the global market - there would be little rationale to import much from the EU apart from protected produce such as mozzarella or champagne.

Mimicking the EU tariff regime would be exceptionally difficult for an elected government to justify - hence why it's almost guaranteed. It's a protectionist racket when it comes to food, and that's not necessary to protect our food production industry. Hence why every single farmer I know massively supported Leave.

The only other nations that operate such ridiculous tariffs on such key elements of their population's cost of living are third world or dictatorships - why else would you seek to harm millions to provide limited protection to a very few?

s2art

18,937 posts

254 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
s2art said:
Only if a) the customer insists on buying EU imports and b) The EU exporter doesnt absorb the costs to remain competitive.
The vast majority of consumers just buy what's on the shelf and doesn't care where it comes from.

Possibly the exporter will, initially at least, but over time we will end up paying it.
I doubt that. The majority of customers will look for best value for money, with some of the thicker or more gullible looking for the 'coolest' label.

Sway

26,328 posts

195 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
Unlikely. British Kite never applied to exports if not applicable, as long as you could demonstrate safety during production and commissioning...
You have no UK sales?
Less than 5%. These are very expensive, critical bits of kit for a certain industry that have an operational life of 30 odd years. The UK and western europe is pretty stagnant, the rest of the world really isn't. China is exploding (and we're selling more in a single contract to one operator than the business sold in three years a decade ago), as is the Middle East, South America and South East Asia.

Sway

26,328 posts

195 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
The vast majority of consumers just buy what's on the shelf and doesn't care where it comes from.

Possibly the exporter will, initially at least, but over time we will end up paying it.
27&% roughly 23bn in 2016, interesting to note therefore, the offhand dismissal of the cost increase. More sunlit uplands with no justification behind them. Still, I quite like noodles, swings & roundabouts.
Breakdown of the total is necessary - currently, European wheat and sugar beet dominates, yet it's vastly overpriced on the global market. Currently, it works out cheapest due to the protectionist tariffs on the really cheap ROW supply. Take those away, and I can be pretty confident that sugar beet imports will fall massively and the 'cheap' items will revert to the higher quality sugar cane.

Same for wheats/grains. Somewhat true for meat, where as long as our standards are met other nations outside the EU can supply the bulk currently sourced from the Eastern EU states such as chicken, pork, etc.

We really have allowed ourselves to miss the opportunities globalised supply chains and cheap transport offer to our consumers, due to the EU ensuring that we're better off buying from EU states...

FiF

44,148 posts

252 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
Sway said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
The vast majority of consumers just buy what's on the shelf and doesn't care where it comes from.

Possibly the exporter will, initially at least, but over time we will end up paying it.
27&% roughly 23bn in 2016, interesting to note therefore, the offhand dismissal of the cost increase. More sunlit uplands with no justification behind them. Still, I quite like noodles, swings & roundabouts.
Breakdown of the total is necessary - currently, European wheat and sugar beet dominates, yet it's vastly overpriced on the global market. Currently, it works out cheapest due to the protectionist tariffs on the really cheap ROW supply. Take those away, and I can be pretty confident that sugar beet imports will fall massively and the 'cheap' items will revert to the higher quality sugar cane.

Same for wheats/grains. Somewhat true for meat, where as long as our standards are met other nations outside the EU can supply the bulk currently sourced from the Eastern EU states such as chicken, pork, etc.

We really have allowed ourselves to miss the opportunities globalised supply chains and cheap transport offer to our consumers, due to the EU ensuring that we're better off buying from EU states...
That's before you even consider interventionist measures aside from duties.

Someone also mentioned it earlier I think, I'd like to see whatever we as an independent nation choose to replace CAP subsidies, being used to support farmers et al to do something we need to be done, rather than just owning land.

p1stonhead

25,576 posts

168 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
Eddie Strohacker said:
One can easily make the opposite argument that remain are the real patriots foreseeing a diminution in the UK's world standing & economic clout brought on by wildly inflated claims & outright lies from leave that they wish to stave off.

Here is an outright lie from a little known leave supporter from just last night.



Aaaaand they've said retracted it and admit it was bullst

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/lbc-has-retra...

Eddie Strohacker

3,879 posts

87 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
Sway said:
Breakdown of the total is necessary - currently, European wheat and sugar beet dominates, yet it's vastly overpriced on the global market. Currently, it works out cheapest due to the protectionist tariffs on the really cheap ROW supply. Take those away, and I can be pretty confident that sugar beet imports will fall massively and the 'cheap' items will revert to the higher quality sugar cane.
It just isn't & it's getting cheaper too with imminent quota abolition. But do tell me more about this cheap transport you mention.

https://www.economist.com/news/finance-economics/2...

Tryke3

1,609 posts

95 months

Friday 21st July 2017
quotequote all
KarlMac said:
Remoaners also seem to miss the point of a third option, it we can't buy it we could actually start making stuff again. How crazy does that sound?
You clearly havent ever made anything
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