How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
KarlMac said:
Remoaners also seem to miss the point of a third option, it we can't buy it we could actually start making stuff again. How crazy does that sound?
Heh, well it depends what you mean by "make stuff again". We design and manufacture a significant amount of specialised and generally higher-end products and equipment in this country. I design industrial equipment that is made in the UK and sells around the world. What we won't be doing is starting up manufacturing low-end consumer goods as that just isn't economically viable.Eddie Strohacker said:
Sway said:
Breakdown of the total is necessary - currently, European wheat and sugar beet dominates, yet it's vastly overpriced on the global market. Currently, it works out cheapest due to the protectionist tariffs on the really cheap ROW supply. Take those away, and I can be pretty confident that sugar beet imports will fall massively and the 'cheap' items will revert to the higher quality sugar cane.
It just isn't & it's getting cheaper too with imminent quota abolition. But do tell me more about this cheap transport you mention.https://www.economist.com/news/finance-economics/2...
However you did note in that article that:
They're still more expensive than the world price.
They predict that growers will stop sowing as it will not be profitable to compete without the minimum pricing and subsidies.
Growers have been locked out of exporting their produce due to quotas, meaning traditional export markets have setup their own supply and refineries.
Nothing is changing on the restrictive import regime on ROW produce.
Doesn't seem to support your statements...
Oh, and that's just sugar. Let alone any of the other produce.
Lastly, if you really can't believe that international transport is cheaper and easier than it's ever been then there's little hope.
mx-6 said:
KarlMac said:
Remoaners also seem to miss the point of a third option, it we can't buy it we could actually start making stuff again. How crazy does that sound?
Heh, well it depends what you mean by "make stuff again". We design and manufacture a significant amount of specialised and generally higher-end products and equipment in this country. I design industrial equipment that is made in the UK and sells around the world. What we won't be doing is starting up manufacturing low-end consumer goods as that just isn't economically viable.
I have the knowledge of what industry and business Karlmac is in - and it's manufacturing low end commercial products that are exported globally, within the UK...
Sway said:
mx-6 said:
KarlMac said:
Remoaners also seem to miss the point of a third option, it we can't buy it we could actually start making stuff again. How crazy does that sound?
Heh, well it depends what you mean by "make stuff again". We design and manufacture a significant amount of specialised and generally higher-end products and equipment in this country. I design industrial equipment that is made in the UK and sells around the world. What we won't be doing is starting up manufacturing low-end consumer goods as that just isn't economically viable.I have the knowledge of what industry and business Karlmac is in - and it's manufacturing low end commercial products that are exported globally, within the UK...
ORD said:
andymadmak said:
One concrete benefit to leaving the EU? Well I have seen a number posted in various threads on this very forum.
I will offer two:
1. The ability of the UK to establish more favourable, UK focussed trade agreements with rapidly growing economies outside the EU.
2. The ability, over time, (Note!) to establish a better working relationship with our European allies as a result of not constantly being seen as the the roadblock to the ever closer Union and creation of a Federal European Superstate that is the desire of other major EU members.
So things that might in theory happen if we had a competent government and only in the long term. Maybe. Perhaps.I will offer two:
1. The ability of the UK to establish more favourable, UK focussed trade agreements with rapidly growing economies outside the EU.
2. The ability, over time, (Note!) to establish a better working relationship with our European allies as a result of not constantly being seen as the the roadblock to the ever closer Union and creation of a Federal European Superstate that is the desire of other major EU members.
Great. Not obviously worth a huge drop in quality of life for 60m people. Not worth the huge risk that generates of a Corbyn administration and therefore near-total economic disaster.
I would say that most if not all people will just keep getting on with things and find their money goes on much the same things at the same time as usual with no noticeable effect.
Some will gain some will lose just like some gain and some lose by being in the EU.
stupidbutkeen said:
Your assuming all 60m people will suffer a huge drop in quality of life.. That is a massive assumption to make and one I would say is plainly wrong.
I would say that most if not all people will just keep getting on with things and find their money goes on much the same things at the same time as usual with no noticeable effect.
Some will gain some will lose just like some gain and some lose by being in the EU.
He keeps repeating it over and over as if he's some relation of Sally Morgan, bugger me its boring.I would say that most if not all people will just keep getting on with things and find their money goes on much the same things at the same time as usual with no noticeable effect.
Some will gain some will lose just like some gain and some lose by being in the EU.
mx-6 said:
Sway said:
mx-6 said:
KarlMac said:
Remoaners also seem to miss the point of a third option, it we can't buy it we could actually start making stuff again. How crazy does that sound?
Heh, well it depends what you mean by "make stuff again". We design and manufacture a significant amount of specialised and generally higher-end products and equipment in this country. I design industrial equipment that is made in the UK and sells around the world. What we won't be doing is starting up manufacturing low-end consumer goods as that just isn't economically viable.I have the knowledge of what industry and business Karlmac is in - and it's manufacturing low end commercial products that are exported globally, within the UK...
Chinese factory wages have doubled in ten years. Okay, it is from a low base, but the problem they are now seeing is huge labour churn, which is the absolute enemy of productivity as well as quality.
There are also a good many products, even low cost or commoditised, where the actual labour element is tiny or not significant.
stupidbutkeen said:
Your assuming all 60m people will suffer a huge drop in quality of life.. That is a massive assumption to make and one I would say is plainly wrong.
I would say that most if not all people will just keep getting on with things and find their money goes on much the same things at the same time as usual with no noticeable effect.
Some will gain some will lose just like some gain and some lose by being in the EU.
A fair point.I would say that most if not all people will just keep getting on with things and find their money goes on much the same things at the same time as usual with no noticeable effect.
Some will gain some will lose just like some gain and some lose by being in the EU.
But, on average, we will be poorer. The collapse of Sterling has already reduced the average disposal income by 23% compared to last year.
I would be the first to admit that leaving the EU could make sense if other conditions were fulfilled. The only problem is that it is unlikely any of them will be. I see the following as necessary conditions for a successful Brexit:
(1) A long transitional period. Up in the air, but may happen.
(2) A very close trade deal. Seems very unlikely if we insist on no ECJ jurisdiction and no respect for the 4 Freedoms.
(3) An economically right of centre government for the foreseeable future to (a) maintain confidence from the markets, (b) keep spending and borrowing under control and (c) stimulate growth through fairly low taxes.
I think this last one is the least likely. We seem to be very much set for a socialist Government at the time of Brexit.
Surely we can all agree that would be a disaster? Just at the time when we need to be lean and flexible and pro-business, we get Corbyn wanting to crush business and blow every penny he can find on his 'equality of outcome' agenda.
p1stonhead said:
Aaaaand they've said retracted it and admit it was bulls
t
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/lbc-has-retra...
Are you saying that Farage would make sthttps://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/lbc-has-retra...
te up about EU? According to some on here he knows everything that there is to know about EU and would be invaluable asset in negotiations. ORD said:
stupidbutkeen said:
Your assuming all 60m people will suffer a huge drop in quality of life.. That is a massive assumption to make and one I would say is plainly wrong.
I would say that most if not all people will just keep getting on with things and find their money goes on much the same things at the same time as usual with no noticeable effect.
Some will gain some will lose just like some gain and some lose by being in the EU.
A fair point.I would say that most if not all people will just keep getting on with things and find their money goes on much the same things at the same time as usual with no noticeable effect.
Some will gain some will lose just like some gain and some lose by being in the EU.
But, on average, we will be poorer. The collapse of Sterling has already reduced the average disposal income by 23% compared to last year.
I would be the first to admit that leaving the EU could make sense if other conditions were fulfilled. The only problem is that it is unlikely any of them will be. I see the following as necessary conditions for a successful Brexit:
(1) A long transitional period. Up in the air, but may happen.
(2) A very close trade deal. Seems very unlikely if we insist on no ECJ jurisdiction and no respect for the 4 Freedoms.
(3) An economically right of centre government for the foreseeable future to (a) maintain confidence from the markets, (b) keep spending and borrowing under control and (c) stimulate growth through fairly low taxes.
I think this last one is the least likely. We seem to be very much set for a socialist Government at the time of Brexit.
Surely we can all agree that would be a disaster? Just at the time when we need to be lean and flexible and pro-business, we get Corbyn wanting to crush business and blow every penny he can find on his 'equality of outcome' agenda.
2. A trade deal will be made in some form but it takes both sides to both give and take. It is still way to early in my view to take anything coming out of the media as gospal. The main question is how far will the politions on both sides be willing to push for a fair trade deal.
3. totaly agree tbh.
There is a new government in place which has 5 years to sort this out, If they do a good job they will win the next election and I think its that simple tbh.
Eddie Strohacker said:
Sway said:
Lastly, if you really can't believe that international transport is cheaper and easier than it's ever been then there's little hope.
Can you elaborate on that?Transport operations capacity growth has outstripped growth in demand.
Oil prices have fallen.
Ships and planes have become significantly more efficient in fuel per tonne per mile terms.
Political barriers have fallen globally.
ORD said:
A fair point.
But, on average, we will be poorer. The collapse of Sterling has already reduced the average disposal income by 23% compared to last year.
I would be the first to admit that leaving the EU could make sense if other conditions were fulfilled. The only problem is that it is unlikely any of them will be. I see the following as necessary conditions for a successful Brexit:
(1) A long transitional period. Up in the air, but may happen.
(2) A very close trade deal. Seems very unlikely if we insist on no ECJ jurisdiction and no respect for the 4 Freedoms.
.
Good grief. After you specifically asked, we've just had two or three pages of people putting forwards positive arguments why getting out of close relationships with the EU is entirely to our benefit. Rather than actually addressing those points, you just come back with a groundless assertion that is basically "the best way we can be out of Europe is to stay in Europe".But, on average, we will be poorer. The collapse of Sterling has already reduced the average disposal income by 23% compared to last year.
I would be the first to admit that leaving the EU could make sense if other conditions were fulfilled. The only problem is that it is unlikely any of them will be. I see the following as necessary conditions for a successful Brexit:
(1) A long transitional period. Up in the air, but may happen.
(2) A very close trade deal. Seems very unlikely if we insist on no ECJ jurisdiction and no respect for the 4 Freedoms.
.
And to address this 'collapse of Sterling' thing, there were more than a few people believing Sterling was over valued and making us uncompetitive on the global market. When it happened, I know a few businessmen who genuinely expected it to reach parity with the dollar as they felt that was a better long term position. Perhaps this chart will put the current position in perspective: http://fxtop.com/en/historical-exchange-rates-grap...
Certainly, this country has benefited from more external investment since the change and where consumers are finding rates biting, they're beginning to focus on local businesses and services that are benefiting from money staying in the country. I appreciate it's not all roses, but your remarkably blinkered outlook is the exact reason why *some* people will loose out - they're the same people who'd somehow manage to loose out if it started raining money.
Digga said:
mx-6 said:
Sway said:
mx-6 said:
KarlMac said:
Remoaners also seem to miss the point of a third option, it we can't buy it we could actually start making stuff again. How crazy does that sound?
Heh, well it depends what you mean by "make stuff again". We design and manufacture a significant amount of specialised and generally higher-end products and equipment in this country. I design industrial equipment that is made in the UK and sells around the world. What we won't be doing is starting up manufacturing low-end consumer goods as that just isn't economically viable.I have the knowledge of what industry and business Karlmac is in - and it's manufacturing low end commercial products that are exported globally, within the UK...
Chinese factory wages have doubled in ten years. Okay, it is from a low base, but the problem they are now seeing is huge labour churn, which is the absolute enemy of productivity as well as quality.
There are also a good many products, even low cost or commoditised, where the actual labour element is tiny or not significant.
There's talk by the brexit crowd of trade deals with the likes of China, but if that in practice means lower tariffs on imports then it would be even harder for British companies to compete with them in the domestic marketplace.
Sway said:
In all of history, it's never been cheaper or easier to ship goods globally.
Transport operations capacity growth has outstripped growth in demand.
Oil prices have fallen.
Ships and planes have become significantly more efficient in fuel per tonne per mile terms.
Political barriers have fallen globally.
Some of this is true, but you are going to see rapidly rising transport costs post brexit. Feel free to ask me how I know this.Transport operations capacity growth has outstripped growth in demand.
Oil prices have fallen.
Ships and planes have become significantly more efficient in fuel per tonne per mile terms.
Political barriers have fallen globally.
Eddie Strohacker said:
Some of this is true, but you are going to see rapidly rising transport costs post brexit. Feel free to ask me how I know this.
No, because I find it hard to trust anything said by such a smug person.But if you can tell us all the lottery numbers for Saturday, that'd be great.
Eddie Strohacker said:
Sway said:
In all of history, it's never been cheaper or easier to ship goods globally.
Transport operations capacity growth has outstripped growth in demand.
Oil prices have fallen.
Ships and planes have become significantly more efficient in fuel per tonne per mile terms.
Political barriers have fallen globally.
Some of this is true, but you are going to see rapidly rising transport costs post brexit. Feel free to ask me how I know this.Transport operations capacity growth has outstripped growth in demand.
Oil prices have fallen.
Ships and planes have become significantly more efficient in fuel per tonne per mile terms.
Political barriers have fallen globally.
Still nothing on the Target2 imbalances, directly answering a question you've raised?
Nothing on the rebuttal of your spectator link about sugar beet? (I even had the grace to admit I wasn't aware of the cessation of quotas and minimum prices)
You complained earlier today that I was asking you to be my personal correspondent - yet appear to be asking me to be yours...
Tuna said:
No, because I find it hard to trust anything said by such a smug person.
Y'see this is classic for this thread. Eight hours ago, the entire wing of the Brexit propaganda party pile in in their mock outrage over a rude post from Ord. Let's see how much support I get over this slur from some random with no self control on the internet.TBH I am starting to struggle to see what these negotiations are going to achieve as it seems to me what the government wants is to have all the benefits we have now with none of the downside, but clearly that isn't going to happen.
I feel the EU are a lot less concerned with the money side of things than people (Leavers in general) think... I don't think they will cut us a good deal just because it will harm us both economically if they don't. They are far more concerned with keeping the wider EU project on the road and they have a different view of things than we do... to them it is more than just a trading block.
So I don't see a good deal happening as both sides are too far apart to reach a compromise.
Also I don't understand why Remainer MPs think they can block Brexit by voting down any deal (lets be honest whatever deal is offered will not be good enough for some), we have triggered A50 and we will be out in 18 months time regardless of whether a deal is in place or not.
I feel the EU are a lot less concerned with the money side of things than people (Leavers in general) think... I don't think they will cut us a good deal just because it will harm us both economically if they don't. They are far more concerned with keeping the wider EU project on the road and they have a different view of things than we do... to them it is more than just a trading block.
So I don't see a good deal happening as both sides are too far apart to reach a compromise.
Also I don't understand why Remainer MPs think they can block Brexit by voting down any deal (lets be honest whatever deal is offered will not be good enough for some), we have triggered A50 and we will be out in 18 months time regardless of whether a deal is in place or not.
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