How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[Robertj21a]

Eddie Strohacker said:

Some of this is true, but you are going to see rapidly rising transport costs post brexit. Feel free to ask me how I know this.

It always seems strange to me that you're forever trying to emphasise how knowledgeable you believe you are - and need people to ask you how you know things. Why do you feel the need for that ?

Most people would simply explain what they know.

[Eddie Strohacker]

Sway said:

Feel free to let me know what out of that list is incorrect, or what other than potential fx rates make much difference on the global transportation industry...

It's more what you're not saying, but I'm glad you've asked me, a freight business owner. I was starting to think there was nothing I could add to your outstanding canon of knowledge on everything ever. Lucky me.

You're going to see a reduction in volumes beyond question, which will translate into higher costs in the short term. Border controls will impact efficiency, potentially heavily if for example we don't negotiate entry into EFTA. A driver shortage in the UK will definitely happen already is in fact & a weakening pound will raise fuel prices. ORD was right that we'll be poorer since those costs will end up in the shops. There is no question of that, the only issue is the final level determined by the negotiations.

[turbobloke]

mx-6 said:

Digga said:

mx-6 said:

Sway said:

mx-6 said:

KarlMac said:

Remoaners also seem to miss the point of a third option, it we can't buy it we could actually start making stuff again. How crazy does that sound?

Heh, well it depends what you mean by "make stuff again". We design and manufacture a significant amount of specialised and generally higher-end products and equipment in this country. I design industrial equipment that is made in the UK and sells around the world. What we won't be doing is starting up manufacturing low-end consumer goods as that just isn't economically viable.

I have the knowledge of what industry and business Karlmac is in - and it's manufacturing low end commercial products that are exported globally, within the UK...

There are of course some exceptions but we all know that it's an unavoidable fact that costs are a lot higher here than in Chindia/far east.

I hear this a lot, but costs comparing what? Often, the Far Eastern products - certainly in our industry - are not even made from the same base-grade of material, let alone with permanently employed staff (many workers are transient and peripatetic, not least because of the workforce's annual pilgrimage back home) and then there's the shipping cost and lead time.

Chinese factory wages have doubled in ten years. Okay, it is from a low base, but the problem they are now seeing is huge labour churn, which is the absolute enemy of productivity as well as quality.

There are also a good many products, even low cost or commoditised, where the actual labour element is tiny or not significant.

I don't disagree that the quality of cheaply imported goods can be inferior, but when we are talking low-end consumer products many buyers just want cheap.

There's talk by the brexit crowd of trade deals with the likes of China, but if that in practice means lower tariffs on imports then it would be even harder for British companies to compete with them in the domestic marketplace.

We're all the Brexit crowd now doncha know.

China is the EU's second-biggest trading partner behind the United States, and the EU is China's biggest trading partner. Ho hum, IIRC the EU doesn't have deals with China, or India, or Australia, or Brazil, to name but four. This means that from our current position within the EU, neither do we.

Getting nearly 30 nations to agree isn't easier than getting two to do so.

The importance of trade deals is frequently exaggerated. As poiinted out many times by various people, countries succeed with or without trade deals if they produce goods and services which other countries want.

Tariffs between developed countries now average low single figures which means exchange rates are of equal or greater importance. Some of the most worthwhile trade agreements involve fast-growth / rapidly developing countries which still have high tariffs.

According to Peter Lilley MP. a former secretary of state for trade and industry who was allegedly sober at the time of writing: "Chile has deals covering countries with collective GDP five times the EU’s deals. Even Iceland with a population less than Croydon has a trade agreement with China – as does Switzerland."

Outside the EU the UK will be able to negotiate worthwhile deals to access fast growing markets including China, India and Brazil which the EU has failed to do. and this will amost certainly happen faster than the EU could / will achieve. The EU launched negotiations for an Investment Agreement witth China in 2013, and correct this by all means but from what I've read they're still negotiating. Pop back to this thread in a couple of years as we close the EU door behind us and the odds are they'll still be negotiating.

Put pessimistic balls of crystal aside and pop back a couple of years after Brexit and see how things are getting along with one-on-one UK deals.

[Tuna]

Eddie Strohacker said:

Tuna said:

No, because I find it hard to trust anything said by such a smug person.

Y'see this is classic for this thread. Eight hours ago, the entire wing of the Brexit propaganda party pile in in their mock outrage over a rude post from Ord. Let's see how much support I get over this slur from some random with no self control on the internet.

You feel mightily offended? Really? Not even a hint of self-awareness?

Trust me, I've plenty of self control. It was a conscious decision to point out that the way you post does not come across well. I hope that helps.

[Eddie Strohacker]

Tuna said:

You feel mightily offended? Really? Not even a hint of self-awareness?

Trust me, I've plenty of self control. It was a conscious decision to point out that the way you post does not come across well. I hope that helps.

Nope, I couldn't give a toss, merely making a point about how classy y'all be.

[PurpleMoonlight]

VolvoT5 said:

TBH I am starting to struggle to see what these negotiations are going to achieve as it seems to me what the government wants is to have all the benefits we have now with none of the downside, but clearly that isn't going to happen.

I feel the EU are a lot less concerned with the money side of things than people (Leavers in general) think... I don't think they will cut us a good deal just because it will harm us both economically if they don't. They are far more concerned with keeping the wider EU project on the road and they have a different view of things than we do... to them it is more than just a trading block.

So I don't see a good deal happening as both sides are too far apart to reach a compromise.

Also I don't understand why Remainer MPs think they can block Brexit by voting down any deal (lets be honest whatever deal is offered will not be good enough for some), we have triggered A50 and we will be out in 18 months time regardless of whether a deal is in place or not.

I agree with this. The UK is not as important to the EU as the UK thinks it is.

The only worthwhile bargaining chip we really have is the exit fee. If we pay lots we will likely get a good deal. If we won't we will likely get a bad deal.

[Sway]

Eddie Strohacker said:

Sway said:

Feel free to let me know what out of that list is incorrect, or what other than potential fx rates make much difference on the global transportation industry...

It's more what you're not saying, but I'm glad you've asked me, a freight business owner. I was starting to think there was nothing I could add to your outstanding canon of knowledge on everything ever. Lucky me.

You're going to see a reduction in volumes beyond question, which will translate into higher costs in the short term. Border controls will impact efficiency, potentially heavily if for example we don't negotiate entry into EFTA. A driver shortage in the UK will definitely happen already is in fact & a weakening pound will raise fuel prices. ORD was right that we'll be poorer since those costs will end up in the shops. There is no question of that, the only issue is the final level determined by the negotiations.

Ah, you see, when you said "some of that is true" you were going to be able to point out where I s wrong - you've already seen me hold my hands up when I did get something wrong.

Shame you feel the need to apply sarcastic insults - there is only one poster I've insulted in the years I've been here, and only yesterday a staunch remain supporter thanked me for my reasonable and rational explanation of my point of view...

On your quoted post - you're talking haulage. I was originally talking about international freight beyond the EU. Shipping and airfreight of typically containerised loads.

I can certainly understand that road freight internally is likely to go up in price, however in global commodity trading the in country haulage is a small percentage of the total cost base.

Let's take solar panels. Currently, we pay massive tariffs on the global leader's products, in order to let a couple of German manufacturers to be vaguely competitive. Unless a vastly inflated Minimum Price is paid, then the tariff is over 60%!!

Remove those tariffs, and acknowledge that it's cheaper to ship a container from China to here than it is to drive it across from Germany, and even a 30% increase in UK road haulage costs will see an overall reduction in cost of well into double digit percentages. 10MW solar farm (whether you agree with their validity or not) currently costs approx £120k more than it needs to...

Similar examples are readily found in agri and food products, clothes, footwear, and many others...

[Tuna]

Eddie Strohacker said:

Nope, I couldn't give a toss, merely making a point about how classy y'all be.

The trouble is, the only way to get you to actually engage in a discussion rather than just have you shouting over people seems to be to trigger your mock offense. As you say, you couldn't give a toss.

[Eddie Strohacker]

Tuna said:

The trouble is, the only way to get you to actually engage in a discussion rather than just have you shouting over people seems to be to trigger your mock offense. As you say, you couldn't give a toss.

So you did it on purpose then? Against the posting rules and I'm the smaller man here? Sit down mate.

[Tuna]

Eddie Strohacker said:

So you did it on purpose then? Against the posting rules and I'm the smaller man here? Sit down mate.

Yes, I purposely teased you, a grown man.

[turbobloke]

VolvoT5 said:

I don't think they will cut us a good deal just because it will harm us both economically if they don't. They are far more concerned with keeping the wider EU project on the road and they have a different view of things than we do.

Yes exactly. They're not concerned with the problems of the little people in nation states such as Greece, Cyprus, Spain, the UK etc their overriding concern is their egos and the survival of their inheritance (Das Projekt) to bother with such trivia.

No better reason, or validation, for leaving exists than that. They are remote technocrats pursuing self-interest at the expense of remaining prisoner nations and the economic well-being of their people. Thank goodness we're leaving them to their fate.

[PurpleMoonlight]

turbobloke said:

Yes exactly. They're not concerned with the problems of the little people in nation states such as Greece, Cyprus, Spain, the UK etc their overriding concern is their egos and the survival of their inheritance (Das Projekt) to bother with such trivia.

No better reason, or validation, for leaving exists than that. They are remote technocrats pursuing self-interest at the expense of remaining prisoner nations and the economic well-being of their people. Thank goodness we're leaving them to their fate.

I think you forgot to use 'punish' in your rant.

[Tuna]

VolvoT5 said:

I don't think they will cut us a good deal just because it will harm us both economically if they don't. They are far more concerned with keeping the wider EU project on the road and they have a different view of things than we do... to them it is more than just a trading block.

So I don't see a good deal happening as both sides are too far apart to reach a compromise.

It's an interesting point, that regardless of Brexit, both sides would benefit hugely from a good trading and service arrangement. We've had a lot of discussion about who has the most to loose, but the bottom line is we all benefit from being able to trade and travel. After all, that is why we joined the EU in the first place.

The question is how far the EU feel they can ignore the economic concerns of their member states and a certain desire for pragmatism from the people on the ground. No one has actually called for the UK and Europe to severe ties, just for the nature of the relationship to change.

[turbobloke]

PurpleMoonlight said:

turbobloke said:

Yes exactly. They're not concerned with the problems of the little people in nation states such as Greece, Cyprus, Spain, the UK etc their overriding concern is their egos and the survival of their inheritance (Das Projekt) to bother with such trivia.

No better reason, or validation, for leaving exists than that. They are remote technocrats pursuing self-interest at the expense of remaining prisoner nations and the economic well-being of their people. Thank goodness we're leaving them to their fate.

I think you forgot to use 'punish' in your rant.

It wasn't a rant, clearly nothing like one, your mislabelling protests too much.

There was no basis for using the word 'punish' as Volvo T5 had already used more words to say the same thing.

VolvoT5 said:

I don't think they will cut us a good deal just because it will harm us both economically if they don't.

It even had the EU geniuses punishing themselves, value added never looked so good.

"Vip me harder Brunhilde"

You ought to be on T5's case like a rash, for consistency / credibility and all that.

[///ajd]

p1stonhead said:

Eddie Strohacker said:

One can easily make the opposite argument that remain are the real patriots foreseeing a diminution in the UK's world standing & economic clout brought on by wildly inflated claims & outright lies from leave that they wish to stave off.

Here is an outright lie from a little known leave supporter from just last night.

Aaaaand they've said retracted it and admit it was bullst

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/lbc-has-retra...

Great - so that means:

- Farage hasn't a clue what he's talking about - he's a clueless idiot, or
- Farage makes up any old lies he thinks his low grade flock will lap up

Not good either way really.

[Nothingtoseehere]

turbobloke said:

Yes exactly. They're not concerned with the problems of the little people in nation states such as Greece, Cyprus, Spain, the UK etc their overriding concern is their egos and the survival of their inheritance (Das Projekt) to bother with such trivia.

No better reason, or validation, for leaving exists than that. They are remote technocrats pursuing self-interest at the expense of remaining prisoner nations and the economic well-being of their people. Thank goodness we're leaving them to their fate.

Well said.
Don't forget this sort of thing as well-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6539184/EU-wastes-...

[don'tbesilly]

Eddie Strohacker said:

Tuna said:

You feel mightily offended? Really? Not even a hint of self-awareness?

Trust me, I've plenty of self control. It was a conscious decision to point out that the way you post does not come across well. I hope that helps.

Nope, I couldn't give a toss, merely making a point about how classy y'all be.

Whilst complaining bitterly at the insults coming your way and being totally oblivious to what an enormous hypocrite you are.

Seems to be a natural trait amongst many who voted remain.

By the way, I couldn't give a toss about any response.

[turbobloke]

Nothingtoseehere said:

turbobloke said:

Yes exactly. They're not concerned with the problems of the little people in nation states such as Greece, Cyprus, Spain, the UK etc their overriding concern is their egos and the survival of their inheritance (Das Projekt) to bother with such trivia.

No better reason, or validation, for leaving exists than that. They are remote technocrats pursuing self-interest at the expense of remaining prisoner nations and the economic well-being of their people. Thank goodness we're leaving them to their fate.

Well said.
Don't forget this sort of thing as well-
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/6539184/EU-wastes-...

Link said:

Nick-named Donkeypedia, the animal was part of a £6.3m cultural project to get people to think about the similarities and differences of "European identities".

EU crackpottery ass good as it gets.

[p1stonhead]

///ajd said:

p1stonhead said:

Eddie Strohacker said:

One can easily make the opposite argument that remain are the real patriots foreseeing a diminution in the UK's world standing & economic clout brought on by wildly inflated claims & outright lies from leave that they wish to stave off.

Here is an outright lie from a little known leave supporter from just last night.

Aaaaand they've said retracted it and admit it was bullst

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/lbc-has-retra...

Great - so that means:

- Farage hasn't a clue what he's talking about - he's a clueless idiot, or
- Farage makes up any old lies he thinks his low grade flock will lap up

Not good either way really.

I wouldn't worry he will be too busy begging them not to take £80k personally from him

http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nigel-farage...

[VolvoT5]

Tuna said:

It's an interesting point, that regardless of Brexit, both sides would benefit hugely from a good trading and service arrangement. We've had a lot of discussion about who has the most to loose, but the bottom line is we all benefit from being able to trade and travel. After all, that is why we joined the EU in the first place.

The question is how far the EU feel they can ignore the economic concerns of their member states and a certain desire for pragmatism from the people on the ground. No one has actually called for the UK and Europe to severe ties, just for the nature of the relationship to change.

But that is my point... For the EU technocrats their primary concern is not economic, it is about holding the union together at all costs - I mean just look the Greek financial crisis, they have crushed a whole country just to keep the show on the road. The last thing they want is for us to get, or to have the appearance of getting, a good deal. A good deal would send out totally the wrong message to other member states, encouraging them to get uppity and demand lots of things for or even consider leaving.

On our side May has pinned everything on the 'taking back control' narrative, especially in regards to free movement of people. Again this goes totally against what the EU want - no membership with all that entails means no 'friction free' access to the single market. Simple as that.

Since A50 we have spent nearly 4 months just talking about how the talks will be conducted... and we have already conceded to give them everything they want before we even move on to discussing what we want. These talks will go nowhere.

I think we will either leave on WTO rules, have a 'transition period' that never ends or be offered a second referendum on the deal in order to get the result reversed.

Edited by VolvoT5 on Friday 21st July 20:17