How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
PurpleMoonlight said:
Is the ROW in a position to buy more of the stuff we produce?
Yes, it's growing all the time. In fact the ROW is growing faster than the EU.PurpleMoonlight said:
Is the UK in a position to buy more of the stuff the ROW produces?
Yes, which is why the EU puts punitive tariffs on ROW agricultural produce.///ajd said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Murph7355 said:
And yet an increasingly substantial majority of our exports are with the RoW. How do you reconcile that? Especially as it's "more difficult" with RoW.
Doesn't that prove that being in the EU is not harming our exports?Anyone care to name a UK export to RoW where our exports are currently strangled by EU trade conditions?
There is no way of knowing whether the EU's tariff structure has benefitted, harmed or been indifferent to our performance with RoW trade partners. Nor whether having tariffs with the EU will definitively harm trade with EU partners.
Trade with RoW has been on an increasing trajectory for a while now (despite or because of our EU relationship, who knows). If it continues that trajectory whether we want to call it "blossoming" or not won't really matter. But it'll be good news.
Murph7355 said:
I'm afraid you get 0/10 for logical reasoning again old bean.
There is no way of knowing whether the EU's tariff structure has benefitted, harmed or been indifferent to our performance with RoW trade partners. Nor whether having tariffs with the EU will definitively harm trade with EU partners.
Trade with RoW has been on an increasing trajectory for a while now (despite or because of our EU relationship, who knows). If it continues that trajectory whether we want to call it "blossoming" or not won't really matter. But it'll be good news.
It would have to absolutely sky rocket to make good the many billions of pounds that leaving the EU will cost in the medium term.There is no way of knowing whether the EU's tariff structure has benefitted, harmed or been indifferent to our performance with RoW trade partners. Nor whether having tariffs with the EU will definitively harm trade with EU partners.
Trade with RoW has been on an increasing trajectory for a while now (despite or because of our EU relationship, who knows). If it continues that trajectory whether we want to call it "blossoming" or not won't really matter. But it'll be good news.
I don't doubt that leaving the EU may confer benefits over the long term, in theory.
My pessimism arises from the likely combination of hard Brexit with a Corbyn government. There won't be much left of this country to grow once that has unfolded!
PurpleMoonlight said:
s2art said:
Its the EU that is a protectionist bloc.
I'm looking forward to cheaper imported cornish pasties and scotch eggs.///ajd said:
(PS jsf brought Hitler into a brexit context, so any Godwin cards need to be waved in that direction.)
The post I replied to was suggesting we needed the ECJ to protect us from a rogue UK government. I mentioned that history does not suggest that to be a requirement because the British people and our political systems enable us to manage this ourselves. I mentioned Hitler, Mussolini, Salazar and Franco as 4 recent examples of how on mainland Europe they have a poor record in managing to keep rogues from power.Edited by ///ajd on Sunday 23 July 09:50
The democratic process and the law are understood by the British people to be important factors in why we have managed to keep potential rogues in check. This is why the democratic will of the people is now being enacted, in this instance in the process of the UK leaving the EU.
As always, you have since my post spent the next day trying to change the context and narrative of what was being discussed.
Now this could be that you genuinely don't posses the mental capacity to have a discussion that follows a narrative, or it could be you are warped but capable of understanding what you are doing. Either way, it illustrates just how pointless it is interacting with you, if you wish to have a discussion that can produce anything of worth.
s2art said:
Cornish pasties and scotch eggs seem a tad unlikely but you never know; http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/831450/Jaco...
Oh well, never mind. I don't drink wine so wont benefit if tariffs are significantly reduced.ORD said:
One infuriating thing about Brexiteers is the refusal to acknowledge that they bear the burden of proof and that it is a heavy one.
Anyone calling for huge chance and saying it won't cause net harm has a heavy burden of showing how that will be the case.
Saying 'Oh well, we will just do more trade with the ROW' doesn't even come close. How is that trade going to increase so quickly? How do we know it will generate the benefits we get from EU trade? Selling cheap widgets to Africa or China (good luck) or Brazil (no chance) or Russia (no chance) or India (good luck) does not generate anything like the profits that we get from selling expensive financial and legal services to French companies.
No one provided a heavy burden of proof, about what would happen to the UK when it was duped into the EU via the EEC. If that burden of proof had been provided in 1975, it is quite likely that the referendum vote to remain or leave the EEC in 1975, would have been overwhelmingly for the UK to get out of the EEC.Anyone calling for huge chance and saying it won't cause net harm has a heavy burden of showing how that will be the case.
Saying 'Oh well, we will just do more trade with the ROW' doesn't even come close. How is that trade going to increase so quickly? How do we know it will generate the benefits we get from EU trade? Selling cheap widgets to Africa or China (good luck) or Brazil (no chance) or Russia (no chance) or India (good luck) does not generate anything like the profits that we get from selling expensive financial and legal services to French companies.
The double standards applied by the remoaners is quite staggering, Not a single person in the UK voted, for, or was even given the chance to vote on whether or not they wanted the UK to be a member of the EU.
Yet now we have a situation where vastly more amounts of information were available for the citizens of the UK in the run up to the 2016 referendum, than was ever available to them in the 1975 EEC referendum, and the UK voted to leave the EU.
That would make the vote to leave the EU in in the 2016 referendum much more valid, than the dodgy, quite possibly illegal way the citizens of the UK were taken into the EU via the EEC without being given any vote on the matter.
ORD said:
Decades from now, Brexit will be taught in schools as the prime example of why direct democracy is dangerous and stupid.
Switzerland has the most direct democracy in the developed world, many decisions at local and national level are carried through via referendum. I suggest the Swiss wont be agreeing with your position.The question of whether to join a free trade area is often a no brainer. The question of whether to leave one is much less so.
Are we seriously hoping for some economic miracle from slightly cheaper clothes and slightly cheaper (and largely horrible) New World wine? Brilliant news. I'll tell the City that we don't need its tax revenues anymore because we will all be drinking Californian rose.
Are we seriously hoping for some economic miracle from slightly cheaper clothes and slightly cheaper (and largely horrible) New World wine? Brilliant news. I'll tell the City that we don't need its tax revenues anymore because we will all be drinking Californian rose.
Pan Pan Pan said:
No one provided a heavy burden of proof, about what would happen to the UK when it was duped into the EU via the EEC. If that burden of proof had been provided in 1975, it is quite likely that the referendum vote to remain or leave the EEC in 1975, would have been overwhelmingly for the UK to get out of the EEC.
The double standards applied by the remoaners is quite staggering, Not a single person in the UK voted, for, or was even given the chance to vote on whether or not they wanted the UK to be a member of the EU.
Yet now we have a situation where vastly more amounts of information were available for the citizens of the UK in the run up to the 2016 referendum, than was ever available to them in the 1975 EEC referendum, and the UK voted to leave the EU.
That would make the vote to leave the EU in in the 2016 referendum much more valid, than the dodgy, quite possibly illegal way the citizens of the UK were taken into the EU via the EEC without being given any vote on the matter.
I said much the same in this thread yesterday..........without looking back I think it is safe to say replies were minimal to say the leastThe double standards applied by the remoaners is quite staggering, Not a single person in the UK voted, for, or was even given the chance to vote on whether or not they wanted the UK to be a member of the EU.
Yet now we have a situation where vastly more amounts of information were available for the citizens of the UK in the run up to the 2016 referendum, than was ever available to them in the 1975 EEC referendum, and the UK voted to leave the EU.
That would make the vote to leave the EU in in the 2016 referendum much more valid, than the dodgy, quite possibly illegal way the citizens of the UK were taken into the EU via the EEC without being given any vote on the matter.
///ajd said:
Very good points.
It is very relevant that our high value stuff goes to EU countries. It is all very well talking about the huge untapped markets in India etc. - but with monthly salaries of $300, they are not going to be taking the FS products or Evoque sales that maybe lost to the EU under a hard brexit
Over 56% of our exports go to the rest of the world. It's largely irrelevant whether that's 100,000 £1 items or 1 £100,000...though as we are generally far less competitive at cheap goods (other, lower cost markets doing well there) and very good at complex/high value items, I strongly suspect it will be nearer the latter. Despite someone on $300/mth not being in the market for them (loving the $300 a month soundbite).It is very relevant that our high value stuff goes to EU countries. It is all very well talking about the huge untapped markets in India etc. - but with monthly salaries of $300, they are not going to be taking the FS products or Evoque sales that maybe lost to the EU under a hard brexit
Depending on whose figures you believe, 7 (incl. us) of the top 10 countries with respect to millionaire households are non-EU. And according to Credit Suisse, India are 12th.
Averages, minimums (number of millionaire households!) etc need much more context with populations the size of the BRIC(S) nations.
ORD said:
NJH said:
Depends what you mean by confiscate ORD, you need to read what Article 17 says as there is lots of scope for governments to one way or the other take your property. The most obvious means for a socialist democratic government would be to crank up a massive LVT or rates rise, this would then force people out via "The preceding provisions shall not, however, in any way impair the right of a State to enforce such laws as it deems necessary to control the use of property in accordance with the general interest or to secure the payment of taxes or other contributions or penalties."
Good point. But the nationalisation point stands. And he would also come a cropper on competition law grounds for a lot of his approach. alfie2244 said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
No one provided a heavy burden of proof, about what would happen to the UK when it was duped into the EU via the EEC. If that burden of proof had been provided in 1975, it is quite likely that the referendum vote to remain or leave the EEC in 1975, would have been overwhelmingly for the UK to get out of the EEC.
The double standards applied by the remoaners is quite staggering, Not a single person in the UK voted, for, or was even given the chance to vote on whether or not they wanted the UK to be a member of the EU.
Yet now we have a situation where vastly more amounts of information were available for the citizens of the UK in the run up to the 2016 referendum, than was ever available to them in the 1975 EEC referendum, and the UK voted to leave the EU.
That would make the vote to leave the EU in in the 2016 referendum much more valid, than the dodgy, quite possibly illegal way the citizens of the UK were taken into the EU via the EEC without being given any vote on the matter.
I said much the same in this thread yesterday..........without looking back I think it is safe to say replies were minimal to say the leastThe double standards applied by the remoaners is quite staggering, Not a single person in the UK voted, for, or was even given the chance to vote on whether or not they wanted the UK to be a member of the EU.
Yet now we have a situation where vastly more amounts of information were available for the citizens of the UK in the run up to the 2016 referendum, than was ever available to them in the 1975 EEC referendum, and the UK voted to leave the EU.
That would make the vote to leave the EU in in the 2016 referendum much more valid, than the dodgy, quite possibly illegal way the citizens of the UK were taken into the EU via the EEC without being given any vote on the matter.
The more I see of the EU. the more it seems to align itself with the selective use of democracy carried out by the Nazis to justify their actions in the run up to WW2.
s2art said:
///ajd said:
Anyone care to name a UK export to RoW where our exports are currently strangled by EU trade conditions?
Wherever EU tariffs prevent a non-EU country from earning money from our purchasing their goods. Thus reducing the amount they can spend on purchasing our goods.Any examples where Foxy can create huge market gains by tearing down non-EU tariffs?
///ajd said:
s2art said:
///ajd said:
Anyone care to name a UK export to RoW where our exports are currently strangled by EU trade conditions?
Wherever EU tariffs prevent a non-EU country from earning money from our purchasing their goods. Thus reducing the amount they can spend on purchasing our goods.Any examples where Foxy can create huge market gains by tearing down non-EU tariffs?
Murph7355 said:
///ajd said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Murph7355 said:
And yet an increasingly substantial majority of our exports are with the RoW. How do you reconcile that? Especially as it's "more difficult" with RoW.
Doesn't that prove that being in the EU is not harming our exports?Anyone care to name a UK export to RoW where our exports are currently strangled by EU trade conditions?
There is no way of knowing whether the EU's tariff structure has benefitted, harmed or been indifferent to our performance with RoW trade partners. Nor whether having tariffs with the EU will definitively harm trade with EU partners.
Trade with RoW has been on an increasing trajectory for a while now (despite or because of our EU relationship, who knows). If it continues that trajectory whether we want to call it "blossoming" or not won't really matter. But it'll be good news.
Can you give me any examples?
Trade with RoW has been increasing whilst we are in the EU despite these terrible barriers that Foxy will pull down. Can you name any? Can't be that bad, can they?
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