How do we think EU negotiations will go?

How do we think EU negotiations will go?

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sherbertdip

1,107 posts

119 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
17,400,000 odd voted for Brexit. If we don't get Brexit many will protest, some violently.
I would say about 50% of people i know who voted brexit now believe they made a mistake, it was a wave of nationalistic euphoria, but it's sort of lost it's shine a bit now.

Of course the core supporters who believe violence is their right would still smash things up, I wouldn't call them representative though.

I honestly think that this past year has harmed the UK, whether we can weather the storm for the next few years, i don't know, I hope negotiations come out favourable for us, but you know, I don't think so.

Dip

///ajd

8,964 posts

206 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
b2hbm said:
///ajd said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
Why do you think civil unrest must involve violence?
Well that is the dictionary definition. Google it, many here have implied "pitchforks", but when challenged there is backtracking.
What will be the poll tax (won't pay) non-violent protest equivalent for say brexit being seen to "not do enough about immigration?"
In which case you need a better dictionary. Civil unrest ranges from ranting on twitter to throwing bricks at politicians. Most people would interpret the phrase to mean a large number of the population being annoyed/upset at a particular action and expressing their opinion. The Poll Tax unrest was largely passive but did include some rioting and no doubt there would be some faction of the population which decided that was the best way.

Anyway, back on the topic.

Having read seen TM's offer of residency to EU nationals living in the UK and the response from the EU, how do you think that's going then ? From what I've read (Reuters) the EU appears to want EU nationals living in the UK after we've left to be subject to the EU rather than UK courts. Now that's an interesting one, go live in another country but ignore any rulings they make.

As a champion of the EU cause, what's the comment on that one ///ajd ?
There are always two sides

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com...

What about the rights of brits abroad?

She is trying to look tough for the kipper minded, but looks insular and mean.

Many here said 'they didn't want EU migrants kicked out' - oh no that is just for EDL / extreme kippers. And yet here we now have May leaving more questions than answers about what living in the UK will be like.

This is all hugely damaging to those we do want to come and work here - we need immigration and brexit is making us look a very unwelcoming, bitter place.

This is not what makes Britain Great. She is destroying us.

Contrast with Team GB 2012 Olympics positive feeling.

This is a national embarrassment

anonymous-user

54 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
17,400,000 odd voted for Brexit. If we don't get Brexit many will protest, some violently.
Will they be upset if we end up with a fudge, as seems highly likely.
'brexit' but pay fees to retain some access/fellow EU migrants still here/EU laws renamed UK laws.
In other words the same as before, minus a load of highly paid City jobs.
Even that daft Labour lady who stood on the stage with Boris etc at Wembley (that was a strange spectacle) thinks it was an idiotic idea now!

jonnyb

2,590 posts

252 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
How did anyone not think this was going to end up in a fudge?

How naive are you?

Big business doesn't want it, the political classes don't want it, and nearly half the country doesn't want it. Your Brexit nivarna will never happen. We will leave, but probably not in the way you would like.

Also, the only political party with any sort of will to carry out Brexit has just taken a battering at the polls.

Edited by jonnyb on Saturday 24th June 08:51

JagLover

42,413 posts

235 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
hornetrider said:
Anyone else fked off that this negotiation is happening in the press, not behind closed doors?

As far as I can tell the only bone of contention over citizens rights is that the EU want the ECJ to have jurisdiction over their nationals here. Not sure why they think that should be the case, we'll be independent from them and their rights will be enshrined in our laws.
Not quite

As many have said there is no serious prospect of EU citizens currently here being kicked out. But what about close family members of those 3 million odd people?. What about people who have come over here and worked for a few months or years and then returned to their original countries?

In respect to the first category the EU wants the EU migrants to have GREATER rights than UK nationals in terms of bringing in family members as restrictions that apply to UK nationals, such as income requirements, will not apply to them.

In the second category there is an estimated 3 million people and the EU position is that they should be granted full residency if they wish.

Most of the media will try and disguise these issues as they want to pretend it is all about mean Mrs May wanting to kick out hard working plumbers.

turbobloke

103,955 posts

260 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
JagLover said:
hornetrider said:
Anyone else fked off that this negotiation is happening in the press, not behind closed doors?

As far as I can tell the only bone of contention over citizens rights is that the EU want the ECJ to have jurisdiction over their nationals here. Not sure why they think that should be the case, we'll be independent from them and their rights will be enshrined in our laws.
Not quite

As many have said there is no serious prospect of EU citizens currently here being kicked out. But what about close family members of those 3 million odd people?. What about people who have come over here and worked for a few months or years and then returned to their original countries?

In respect to the first category the EU wants the EU migrants to have GREATER rights than UK nationals in terms of bringing in family members as restrictions that apply to UK nationals, such as income requirements, will not apply to them.

In the second category there is an estimated 3 million people and the EU position is that they should be granted full residency if they wish.

Most of the media will try and disguise these issues as they want to pretend it is all about mean Mrs May wanting to kick out hard working plumbers.
Some of the media have seen it as it is.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/820644/Ther...

jonnyb

2,590 posts

252 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
JagLover said:
hornetrider said:
Anyone else fked off that this negotiation is happening in the press, not behind closed doors?

As far as I can tell the only bone of contention over citizens rights is that the EU want the ECJ to have jurisdiction over their nationals here. Not sure why they think that should be the case, we'll be independent from them and their rights will be enshrined in our laws.
Not quite

As many have said there is no serious prospect of EU citizens currently here being kicked out. But what about close family members of those 3 million odd people?. What about people who have come over here and worked for a few months or years and then returned to their original countries?

In respect to the first category the EU wants the EU migrants to have GREATER rights than UK nationals in terms of bringing in family members as restrictions that apply to UK nationals, such as income requirements, will not apply to them.

In the second category there is an estimated 3 million people and the EU position is that they should be granted full residency if they wish.

Most of the media will try and disguise these issues as they want to pretend it is all about mean Mrs May wanting to kick out hard working plumbers.
Some of the media have seen it as it is.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/820644/Ther...
The Express!?!
rolleyes

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
turbobloke said:
Some of the media have seen it as it is.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/820644/Ther...
I can't take any article seriously if they call people bullies.

AC43

11,486 posts

208 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
Big business doesn't want it, the political classes don't want it, and nearly half the country doesn't want it. Your Brexit nivarna will never happen.
The FT ran an article about the five or so scenarios they they could envisage. They ranged from catastophic (hard Brexit) (what the F** is May THINKING??) to still pretty st but least-bad (some sort of fudge).

They all involve the loss of jobs, loss of trade, loss of growth, increased cost, increased risk, increased uncertainty.

And you can add two years of humiliation at the negotiating table where the only thing we get to ask is whether or not the EU will use some lube.

What a clusterf*ck.

jonnyb

2,590 posts

252 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
AC43 said:
jonnyb said:
Big business doesn't want it, the political classes don't want it, and nearly half the country doesn't want it. Your Brexit nivarna will never happen.
The FT ran an article about the five or so scenarios they they could envisage. They ranged from catastophic (hard Brexit) (what the F** is May THINKING??) to still pretty st but least-bad (some sort of fudge).

They all involve the loss of jobs, loss of trade, loss of growth, increased cost, increased risk, increased uncertainty.

And you can add two years of humiliation at the negotiating table where the only thing we get to ask is whether or not the EU will use some lube.

What a clusterf*ck.
Indeed, I think your observations are fairly close to the mark.

turbobloke

103,955 posts

260 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
turbobloke said:
Some of the media have seen it as it is.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/820644/Ther...
I can't take any article seriously if they call people bullies.
There will be people who can't take comments seriously which look the other way when EU bullies are at work.

EU leaders are generally OK with the UK offer, but the EU sent in the clowns (Juncker and Tusk).

CaptainSlow

13,179 posts

212 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
AC43 said:
jonnyb said:
Big business doesn't want it, the political classes don't want it, and nearly half the country doesn't want it. Your Brexit nivarna will never happen.
The FT ran an article about the five or so scenarios they they could envisage. They ranged from catastophic (hard Brexit) (what the F** is May THINKING??) to still pretty st but least-bad (some sort of fudge).

They all involve the loss of jobs, loss of trade, loss of growth, increased cost, increased risk, increased uncertainty.

And you can add two years of humiliation at the negotiating table where the only thing we get to ask is whether or not the EU will use some lube.

What a clusterf*ck.
Indeed, I think your observations are fairly close to the mark.
Not the first time the UK has had a difference of opinion with the continent over the last 100 years, maybe things would have been easier if we'd just capitulated each time.

jonnyb

2,590 posts

252 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
CaptainSlow said:
jonnyb said:
AC43 said:
jonnyb said:
Big business doesn't want it, the political classes don't want it, and nearly half the country doesn't want it. Your Brexit nivarna will never happen.
The FT ran an article about the five or so scenarios they they could envisage. They ranged from catastophic (hard Brexit) (what the F** is May THINKING??) to still pretty st but least-bad (some sort of fudge).

They all involve the loss of jobs, loss of trade, loss of growth, increased cost, increased risk, increased uncertainty.

And you can add two years of humiliation at the negotiating table where the only thing we get to ask is whether or not the EU will use some lube.

What a clusterf*ck.
Indeed, I think your observations are fairly close to the mark.
Not the first time the UK has had a difference of opinion with the continent over the last 100 years, maybe things would have been easier if we'd just capitulated each time.
Ha!
Not quite the same!

powerstroke

10,283 posts

160 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
turbobloke said:
Some of the media have seen it as it is.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/820644/Ther...
I can't take any article seriously if they call people bullies.
Sadly that is what the EU leaders are , they have proved so with nations they perceive as weak,
May should say right I'm not going to discuss this further , we will move on to trade ..
the sooner the German , and French industries know we will walk away and go WTO
which would fk them, without the 10% duty on cars and 20% on trucks we currently impose on
non EU vehicles they would look expensive if we then said EU pays duty rest of world 0 duty
The EU needs to be reminded the UK stands up to bullies......

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
powerstroke said:
Sadly that is what the EU leaders are , they have proved so with nations they perceive as weak,
May should say right I'm not going to discuss this further , we will move on to trade ..
the sooner the German , and French industries know we will walk away and go WTO
which would fk them, without the 10% duty on cars and 20% on trucks we currently impose on
non EU vehicles they would look expensive if we then said EU pays duty rest of world 0 duty
The EU needs to be reminded the UK stands up to bullies......
They aren't bullies, they are seeking the best possible deal for citizens of the 27.

CaptainSlow

13,179 posts

212 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
Ha!
Not quite the same!
There are a number of common points.

///ajd

8,964 posts

206 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
jonnyb said:
CaptainSlow said:
jonnyb said:
AC43 said:
jonnyb said:
Big business doesn't want it, the political classes don't want it, and nearly half the country doesn't want it. Your Brexit nivarna will never happen.
The FT ran an article about the five or so scenarios they they could envisage. They ranged from catastophic (hard Brexit) (what the F** is May THINKING??) to still pretty st but least-bad (some sort of fudge).

They all involve the loss of jobs, loss of trade, loss of growth, increased cost, increased risk, increased uncertainty.

And you can add two years of humiliation at the negotiating table where the only thing we get to ask is whether or not the EU will use some lube.

What a clusterf*ck.
Indeed, I think your observations are fairly close to the mark.
Not the first time the UK has had a difference of opinion with the continent over the last 100 years, maybe things would have been easier if we'd just capitulated each time.
Ha!
Not quite the same!
No, this time we started the conflict.

Still, it is pointless and the human cost on all sides will be high, so some similarities.

NDA

21,574 posts

225 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
I wonder if David Davies might eventually say 'look, we can't possibly get the deal we want, it's going to take years and quite possibly result in a half in/half out position, we want back in. Sorry electorate, but what you want is impossible to deliver.'


Rich_W

12,548 posts

212 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
They aren't bullies, they are seeking the best possible deal for citizens of the 27.
How does castigating Mays (sensible) offer, despite the apparent openness by actual heads of state, HELP the 27?

Especially since if a EU citizen moves to NZ or America or Singapore or Manila or Thailand. The ECJ doesn't have jurisdiction over local laws? Irony being that citizens rights in Manila or Thailand are far worse than in the UK where apparently Eu citizens will require an extra layer of protection. I guess we operate kangaroo courts here rolleyes

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

157 months

Saturday 24th June 2017
quotequote all
NDA said:
I wonder if David Davies might eventually say 'look, we can't possibly get the deal we want, it's going to take years and quite possibly result in a half in/half out position, we want back in. Sorry electorate, but what you want is impossible to deliver.'
Leaving is not impossible, it's very easy.

The deal we get will by default be the best possible deal and we will have to live with it.
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