How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[rs1952]

So what do the PH massif think?

Is this a case of running a flag up the pole to see who salutes, or has somebody finally woken up and smelt the roses?

The bloke who was brought up on a council estate y'know said:

Mr Davis said he wanted to deliver an outcome "which helps both sides" and said it was likely there would be a transitional period, after the UK leaves the EU, for trade arrangements, probably of "one to two years".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40397312

Edited by rs1952 on Sunday 25th June 18:36

[anonymous-user]

Its been obvious from day 1 there will be a transitional agreement, most of us has been saying so for a year, this is not a new idea.

The EU thinks it will run for 3 years, based on their briefings in the EU parliament committee on Brexit.

[Tryke3]

5 years transitional deal then back in the eu adopting the euro and habing no say in anything

I know, i know, you gotta admit it can well happen

Still waiting for the masterplan from May

[loafer123]

Absolutely no chance of the Euro.

I do think we will be in the EEA, outside the Customs Union for a transitional period. Whether we stay there permanently, leave completely or re-enter the EU thereafter will be interesting to see.

[Rich_W]

rs1952 said:

Robertj21a said:

It's a great shame that Juncker is involved at all. He certainly doesn't consider himself irrelevant and he's probably done more than most other EU officials to rile Brits at every opportunity. If the EU are happy to have such a drunk running part of their operations then I'm equally happen to be leaving them to it.

Just to go off on a tangent here, I'm not sure that you ought to be making too much of Juncker's imbibing habits.

I seem to recall that the UK Prime Minister during most of WW2, for whom many on here appear to show a good deal of respect, was well known for putting away rather more than the occasional half of shandy. It might just be why the EU gave him the job in the first place..

Winston did make sense in between the drinking though

rs1952 said:

So what do the PH massif think?...

I think the Media at Sky and BBC want Brexit to disappear! The reporter on Sky essentially said that Davis has admitted we'll have no deal and it will be a disaster for everyone. Which even the remain voters here would admit that is not what he meant or said!


Talk about bias!

[amgmcqueen]

Tryke3 said:

5 years transitional deal then back in the eu adopting the euro and habing no say in anything

I know, i know, you gotta admit it can well happen

Still waiting for the masterplan from May

Britain will never adopt the Euro, thank god we didn't!

[Tryke3]

amgmcqueen said:

Tryke3 said:

5 years transitional deal then back in the eu adopting the euro and habing no say in anything

I know, i know, you gotta admit it can well happen

Still waiting for the masterplan from May

Britain will never adopt the Euro, thank god we didn't!

I know what you mean, look at the disaster that is Germany

[loafer123]

Tryke3 said:

I know what you mean, look at the disaster that is Germany

Germany has benefited hugely from the Euro, with weaker Euro countries suffering in return.

Don't be fooled, however. Target 2 makes that benefit an ever tightening piece of elastic, and when it breaks, it will really hurt them.

[anonymous-user]

loafer123 said:

Tryke3 said:

I know what you mean, look at the disaster that is Germany

Germany has benefited hugely from the Euro, with weaker Euro countries suffering in return.

Don't be fooled, however. Target 2 makes that benefit an ever tightening piece of elastic, and when it breaks, it will really hurt them.

That ignores the massive deflation that will hit Europe when the Euro blows up, its going to be messy, very very messy.

[amgmcqueen]

Tryke3 said:

amgmcqueen said:

Tryke3 said:

5 years transitional deal then back in the eu adopting the euro and habing no say in anything

I know, i know, you gotta admit it can well happen

Still waiting for the masterplan from May

Britain will never adopt the Euro, thank god we didn't!

I know what you mean, look at the disaster that is Germany

I know what you mean, look at the success that is Greece.

[Tryke3]

amgmcqueen said:

Tryke3 said:

amgmcqueen said:

Tryke3 said:

5 years transitional deal then back in the eu adopting the euro and habing no say in anything

I know, i know, you gotta admit it can well happen

Still waiting for the masterplan from May

Britain will never adopt the Euro, thank god we didn't!

I know what you mean, look at the disaster that is Germany

I know what you mean, look at the success that is Greece.

We are talking about currencies now, run along and play with playdough

[voyds9]

Tryke3 said:

I know what you mean, look at the disaster that is Germany

And it served Greece equally as well, what is all the fuss about

[amgmcqueen]

Tryke3 said:

amgmcqueen said:

Tryke3 said:

amgmcqueen said:

Tryke3 said:

5 years transitional deal then back in the eu adopting the euro and habing no say in anything

I know, i know, you gotta admit it can well happen

Still waiting for the masterplan from May

Britain will never adopt the Euro, thank god we didn't!

I know what you mean, look at the disaster that is Germany

I know what you mean, look at the success that is Greece.

We are talking about currencies now, run along and play with playdough

You first mentioned the Euro?!

[fido]

Tryke3 said:

I know what you mean, look at the disaster that is Germany

The Euro is the new Mark - of course it works for Germany. Well until the whole pyramid loan scheme starts to go pear shaped.

[Murph7355]

Rich_W said:

...
It baffles me that other states are not at least irritated, at worst full on fked off with this arrangement.

How much trade does the UK gain from Latvia. Google says Latvias top 3 export markets are Lithuania 17.7% Russia 14.7% Estonia 11.2% Clearly one isn't even in the EU!
How much French produce is consumed in Romania?
How many German electronics are bought in Bulgaria?

So WHERE is the benefit in keeping these crap countries in a Union that sucks all the finances out of the EU?
....

The Germans benefit massively from a weak Euro and relatively cheap labour to support the sort of exporting they do. The net receipts in the chart take none of that into account.

France and Italy are different. And if you look at the relative happiness of each with the current position of the EU it reflects in it - people in all those nations are irritated by the current position. If they weren't there would be 100% satisfaction with the EU (or significantly closer to it).

Macron knows change is needed and is aiming to get some. I think the changes he wants are tighter fiscal union. I'm not sure whether this will be universally desirable though (e.g. Germany's position).

Italy has a growing number of people wanting out. I suspect being in the Euro will preclude this, but it doesn't stop people wanting it.

Like jsf I think there are huge problems brewing in the Eurozone. It's part of the reason I voted Leave. When they stop kicking the can down the road with nations like Greece it will get messy, and being a little further removed from it will be beneficial IMO (though won't stop the pain totally).

[Mr GrimNasty]

Italian banks http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40400210

[Tuna]

Europe has benefited massively from the political own goals in the UK and the 'thank goodness' moment when France got a moderate in. For the moment, they're feeling stable and in control, whilst the rest of the world seem to be loosing the plot.

The question is.... how long will they maintain that feeling when all the problems they've been kicking into the long grass turn out to still be there?

[anonymous-user]

Whenever they decide to hold the Italian elections, they will be back to stting bricks again.

[Cobnapint]

Wow. And Santander rescued another one at the start of the month for a cool £6.1bn.

Not good.

[rs1952]

mondeoman said:

And the Walloons were "persuaded" to change their minds....

Yes. "Persuaded" (your quotes - I wonder what you were trying to imply by that?

The best way to persuade people is by the strength of your argument. If that doesn't work :-

You can "persuade" people around to your way of thinking by taking them down a dark alley and giving them a "strict talking to."

You can "persuade" people with thumbscrews and many other less than pleasant implements.

You can also "persuade" people by throwing enough goodies at them so that they eventually agree to what you are proposing.

The latter is the usual EU way. Its called compromise.

The DUP are currently being "persuaded" to prop up a minority conservative administration. It appears in that case that the "goody bag" may not be big enough...