How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
Robertj21a said:
p1stonhead said:
You do realise that this exact post can be flipped to the other side? 
Yes. That's what happens in tough negotiations !.The point is that the EU will (in my view) be more frustrated by the lack of progress than we will. I reckon they will blink first.
Robertj21a said:
I don't see that our team have given way on anything substantial
Davis conceded on day 1 (having said differently before the negotiations) that he would go with the EU's agenda - ie agree the exit bill and exit terms *before* discussions on future relationship started. Because the EU said "our way or the highway". And that is the root of our current position.
Of course, you could take the view that that was a harmless concession and that we have the upper hand in the negotiations right now. I mean, there are plenty of views you *could* take...
.
Greg66 said:
Davis conceded on day 1 (having said differently before the negotiations) that he would go with the EU's agenda - ie agree the exit bill and exit terms *before* discussions on future relationship started. Because the EU said "our way or the highway".
And that is the root of our current position.
Of course, you could take the view that that was a harmless concession and that we have the upper hand in the negotiations right now. I mean, there are plenty of views you *could* take...
.
I certainly view that as a harmless concession. Let them think we'll just roll over, give them a false sense of security.And that is the root of our current position.
Of course, you could take the view that that was a harmless concession and that we have the upper hand in the negotiations right now. I mean, there are plenty of views you *could* take...
.
Their current frustration has to be a good negotiating tool.
There is a pretty good reason why brinkmanship is madness:
(1) The UK has ruled out an "off-the-shelf" relationship with the EU. The public will not tolerate anything sensible like membership of the Single Market, or at least that is the assumption within government.
(2) Any bespoke arrangement will take years to negotiate, not because of clever little negotiating tactics or messing about, but simply because agreeing the terms on which major economies will trade with each other and with the ROW takes time.
(3) We already have very little time to negotiate an exit deal. A 2-year transitional period adds very little other than a good reason to fail to make any progress for the time being.
(4) Any last minute attempt to hash something together will inevitably fail.
(5) In a business-business context, none of this would matter terribly because the companies would just trade on in reliance on the old arrangements. There is no such option here - the Treaty imposes a hard stop, so unless both sides can persuade their respective publics to extend the transitional period again (and again and again), a "crash out" is the only likely outcome.
However you voted, we have all been thoroughly screwed over by a small number of deeply unpleasant right-wing ideologues that despise the EU and were prepared to lie through their teeth to get a Leave vote. Remember being told that voting Leave didn't mean leaving the Single Market? Well, apparently it did. Etc etc etc
(1) The UK has ruled out an "off-the-shelf" relationship with the EU. The public will not tolerate anything sensible like membership of the Single Market, or at least that is the assumption within government.
(2) Any bespoke arrangement will take years to negotiate, not because of clever little negotiating tactics or messing about, but simply because agreeing the terms on which major economies will trade with each other and with the ROW takes time.
(3) We already have very little time to negotiate an exit deal. A 2-year transitional period adds very little other than a good reason to fail to make any progress for the time being.
(4) Any last minute attempt to hash something together will inevitably fail.
(5) In a business-business context, none of this would matter terribly because the companies would just trade on in reliance on the old arrangements. There is no such option here - the Treaty imposes a hard stop, so unless both sides can persuade their respective publics to extend the transitional period again (and again and again), a "crash out" is the only likely outcome.
However you voted, we have all been thoroughly screwed over by a small number of deeply unpleasant right-wing ideologues that despise the EU and were prepared to lie through their teeth to get a Leave vote. Remember being told that voting Leave didn't mean leaving the Single Market? Well, apparently it did. Etc etc etc
Robertj21a said:
I certainly view that as a harmless concession. Let them think we'll just roll over, give them a false sense of security.
Their current frustration has to be a good negotiating tool.
Cunning. Letting them think we will just roll over, by, errr, rolling over. Their current frustration has to be a good negotiating tool.
Perhaps we should write them a massive cheque next. You know, to make them think we will write them a massive cheque.
Oh, wait....
Greg66 said:
Robertj21a said:
I certainly view that as a harmless concession. Let them think we'll just roll over, give them a false sense of security.
Their current frustration has to be a good negotiating tool.
Cunning. Letting them think we will just roll over, by, errr, rolling over. Their current frustration has to be a good negotiating tool.
Perhaps we should write them a massive cheque next. You know, to make them think we will write them a massive cheque.
Oh, wait....
indeed, it's so cunning.p1stonhead said:
Robertj21a said:
p1stonhead said:
You do realise that this exact post can be flipped to the other side?
Yes. That's what happens in tough negotiations !.The point is that the EU will (in my view) be more frustrated by the lack of progress than we will. I reckon they will blink first.
It's clear the EU will never agree to a trade deal, they just keep repeating the same made up figure while sticking their fingers in their ears. I still don't think it's sunk in for them that we are leaving the EU.
This is where a strong PM who believes in Brexit is needed. Stop f
king about wasting the British publics time. End all foreign aid tomorrow. End all EU payments tomorrow. Start planning the infrastructure and resources needed to trade on WTO terms which is what is going to happen anyway.
The UK and the EU are like chalk and cheese, we never agree on anything.
This is where a strong PM who believes in Brexit is needed. Stop f
king about wasting the British publics time. End all foreign aid tomorrow. End all EU payments tomorrow. Start planning the infrastructure and resources needed to trade on WTO terms which is what is going to happen anyway.The UK and the EU are like chalk and cheese, we never agree on anything.
I'm sure the Brexiteers will sort it out so the UK can keep uninhibited trade without making financial contributions to the bloc, they wouldn't have promised something they couldn't deliver as that would undermine the legitimacy of the Brexit vote. In fact I heard Owen Patterson reiterate that promise a few weeks ago and David Davis say something similar a couple of months ago.
What matters is they get the results promised to the electorate without any back sliding and I'm sure they would be held to account on every word.
What matters is they get the results promised to the electorate without any back sliding and I'm sure they would be held to account on every word.
///ajd said:
If you were the EU, why wouldn't you do what I suggest?
It is so obvious and yet so many are so naive about these kinds of motives.
You should take it seriously as it is exactly what they are doing - witness the attempts to woo the CoL firms to Paris etc. That is evidence of what I suggest whether you like to admit your vote did it or not.
The EU has always been out to damage the U.K., especially after we refused to join the Euro. It's why our manufacturing has been so damaged and our farmers live on subsidies. Nothing new there. It is so obvious and yet so many are so naive about these kinds of motives.
You should take it seriously as it is exactly what they are doing - witness the attempts to woo the CoL firms to Paris etc. That is evidence of what I suggest whether you like to admit your vote did it or not.
Having said that the EU has been spectacularly unsuccessful in helping any of its members improve their lot in any meaningful way and has seriously damaged quite a few. Can't see why they'd ever get better.
To see Juncker waving his arms around, making irrational threats should confirm to any right thinking person how bad the EU is.
BlackLabel said:
Clearly he's been briefed to sound a little less anti-British. He's a bit of a liability, isn't he?Digga said:
BlackLabel said:
Clearly he's been briefed to sound a little less anti-British. He's a bit of a liability, isn't he?CaptainSlow said:
ORD said:
Remember being told that voting Leave didn't mean leaving the Single Market? Well, apparently it did. Etc etc etc
No, quite the opposite as we've covered numerous times before. Both sides of the debate were quite clear we'd be leaving the Single Market.Indeed.
Also, remember when people advocated the flexcit approach of single market retention during a transitional phase, and were decried as idiots getting the worst of both worlds?
Greg66 said:
Cunning. Letting them think we will just roll over, by, errr, rolling over.
Perhaps we should write them a massive cheque next. You know, to make them think we will write them a massive cheque.
Oh, wait....
I think you've missed the point.....Perhaps we should write them a massive cheque next. You know, to make them think we will write them a massive cheque.
Oh, wait....
No harm in the initial roll over. I'm not expecting us to write any massive cheque, just one that will cover our commitments. Why do you think we'll agree to any unjustified amount ?
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