How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
Anyone who has read the BBC coverage of the issue will note that the Remoaner media are trying to make out May's offer is inadequate and will try and obfuscate the details and focus on criticism.
She actually offered all the UK could reasonable offer. A path to citizenship for those already here and family reunification rights for EU citizens here GREATER than the same rights of UK citizens.
No sovereign nation should accept the jurisdiction of a foreign court and why exactly would we be granting the same rights to EU citizens who come here after we leave?
We will next move on to the subject of the "divorce" bill at which the EU will present a bill for 100bn Euros.
No deal better than a bad deal?, most certainly.
She actually offered all the UK could reasonable offer. A path to citizenship for those already here and family reunification rights for EU citizens here GREATER than the same rights of UK citizens.
No sovereign nation should accept the jurisdiction of a foreign court and why exactly would we be granting the same rights to EU citizens who come here after we leave?
We will next move on to the subject of the "divorce" bill at which the EU will present a bill for 100bn Euros.
No deal better than a bad deal?, most certainly.
I believe on certain minor aspects agreement will be happen.
But the EU simply cannot risk giving the UK a deal equal to or better than it currently has on others.
To do so would encourage other EU countries to consider the possibility of leaving the EU themselves.
As such by the end of negotiations I see us leaving without a deal on the majority of aspects.
This will turn into a couple of years of economic uncertainty. But one which 5 years after we will look on as being worth it for the position we will then find ourselves in.
I also believe depending on the world economy, not expanding very much, that the EU may see further economic difficulties which will continue to undermine the EUs leaders.
But the EU simply cannot risk giving the UK a deal equal to or better than it currently has on others.
To do so would encourage other EU countries to consider the possibility of leaving the EU themselves.
As such by the end of negotiations I see us leaving without a deal on the majority of aspects.
This will turn into a couple of years of economic uncertainty. But one which 5 years after we will look on as being worth it for the position we will then find ourselves in.
I also believe depending on the world economy, not expanding very much, that the EU may see further economic difficulties which will continue to undermine the EUs leaders.
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And your opinion is worth more than those you disagree with for what reason? We survived - thrived even - for centuries before the EU. And there are serious structural problems within the EU caused by entirely unnecessary political ideologies. Ask yourself how many other nations on the planet operate the way the EU does. Then look at the relative trends for growth etc.
That EU leaders appear to feel it necessary to actively punish a state that wants to leave should be all you need to know. If the grass was guaranteed greener within the EU positive argument should win out. There was NONE during the campaigning. There has been NONE since. Only extreme FUD being spread by the EU and its advocates.
You ask people to read your posts with an open mind. Try and not let them ooze with arrogance and people might. You're taking the same approach as the Remain campaign did last year. It doesn't work. It isn't constructive.
How out of touch the EU are is plainly evident in their response on "rights". Presumably they think EU citizens are subject only to EU courts when they visit all other countries in the world that aren't member states. It's truly mental.
Burwood said:
Tony, surely you're thrilled that your family is set to be given all the rights you were worried about. That was your biggest concern/gripe. Happy days?
You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.nickfrog said:
Robertj21a said:
Many Brits know only too well that '........these foreign types are bloody impossible to negotiate with' - that's why we want to leave their little club before it collapses in a heap.
Bloody foreigners, basically.Mrr T said:
You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.
Yes, because you'd managed to get yourself into a right lather that they would be taken away 
Another huge element of fear has been removed. Another reason not to embrace leaving gone.
Or rather would be if the EU weren't being so stupid. So yet again, ire needs to be directed elsewhere.
JagLover said:
Anyone who has read the BBC coverage of the issue will note that the Remoaner media are trying to make out May's offer is inadequate and will try and obfuscate the details and focus on criticism.
She actually offered all the UK could reasonable offer. A path to citizenship for those already here and family reunification rights for EU citizens here GREATER than the same rights of UK citizens.
No sovereign nation should accept the jurisdiction of a foreign court and why exactly would we be granting the same rights to EU citizens who come here after we leave?
We will next move on to the subject of the "divorce" bill at which the EU will present a bill for 100bn Euros.
No deal better than a bad deal?, most certainly.
If you think TM offer is fair we obviously have a different view of fairness.She actually offered all the UK could reasonable offer. A path to citizenship for those already here and family reunification rights for EU citizens here GREATER than the same rights of UK citizens.
No sovereign nation should accept the jurisdiction of a foreign court and why exactly would we be granting the same rights to EU citizens who come here after we leave?
We will next move on to the subject of the "divorce" bill at which the EU will present a bill for 100bn Euros.
No deal better than a bad deal?, most certainly.
Not only was the offer not fair it was ridiculous.
Firstly, TM statement was they would protect the interests of all 3M EU citizens in the UK they then made an offer which clearly did not do that.
Based on what we know TM proposal is all EU citizens who have been resident in the UK for 5 years at some unspecified date, will get a new settled status.
The statement suggests those who do not qualify for settled status will have routes available to achieve it, but what that means is not clear and it seems the government reserves the right to make changes to the process.
So assuming TM wants the Art 50 day to be the cut off based on 150k net immigration from the EU, about 750k of the 3M EU immigrants clearly are not having their rights protected.
Further, what does 5 years residency mean? Based on current passport rules this means continuous residency to the date of application with no break of more than 6 months. I work in a large organisation with a lot of EU employees, it also tends to move people around the world on a 3 to 4 year cycle. I have not spoken to anyone but I will bet even in my organisation there will be a lot of EU employees who regard the UK as their home but will not qualify.
The offer is ridiculous because it just will not work. While I know some on PH relish the chance to deport some EU citizens, it’s just not going to happen. Is the government really going to deport people, breaking up families, sending children to countries where they do not even speak the language. Can you imagine the images on the TV news?
Further I believe any challenge to the deportations under Human Right law would succeed.
Finally to compound ridiculousness the new status will need to be processed. The Border agency struggles at the moment how will is introduce a new process, most of the review is manual, to process 2.5M applications?
As for the jurisdiction in the UK of foreign bodies. If you want the UK to sign lots of new FTA then get used to it.
The most ridiculous element of the TM offer is that with only 18 months to go before train crash brexit the brexit buffoons want to haggle about residency which is likely not contentious.
mikebradford said:
I believe on certain minor aspects agreement will be happen.
But the EU simply cannot risk giving the UK a deal equal to or better than it currently has on others..
The EU can ultimately only control how we interact with the EU, not the rest of the world.But the EU simply cannot risk giving the UK a deal equal to or better than it currently has on others..
So they can throw us out of the secret squirrel club if they want (though that would harm them as much as us), but that doesn't stop us from going out into the big wide world and trading and socialising and sharing with all of the other economies.
Their ideal is to (as far as possible) maintain a deal where they get to dictate how we work with the rest of the world. Nice friendly trading unions that effectively lock us out of more favourable deals with other countries. Maintain the power of the European Courts and standards bodies. Shared responsibility for immigration.
All of those things are in their interest, but will be promoted as the only way the UK can possibly get on with the world. It's for our own good, of course! And in all fairness, some people do believe that without a super-nation deciding these things for us, we will collapse as a nation and make all the wrong decisions.
It's not therefore a question of better or worse deals, it's a question of control. All of the trade tariff and freedom of movement speeches are not about encouraging business or helping citizens - it's about who has control over these matters in the future.
Now the question is, if we do want to control these things, and do believe we can trade successfully with the rest of the world, how far does the EU think they can punish us without damaging their own fragile economy? The early claims that we'd lose London as a financial centre seem to be largely debunked, and the shift in the pound has made the UK a very attractive place to do business. That won't stop the sabre rattling, but the EU is severely restricted in the sort of deal it can actually impose.
The biggest risk to them is that they impose a punitive deal and it doesn't actually hurt our economy at all - that will make all of the other nations think again about whether membership is 'worth it'. More likely they'll try to make as friendly a deal as possible, conditional on all sorts of continued intervention. However it will be dressed up as them being 'strict' and the control being 'in our best interest' so that they can feel they've handled it well.
In short, much of the trade will continue to be business as usual as no-one wants to hurt their economy. Socially, I see no reason why we can't continue to be the nicest of neighbours. The real fighting will be over control and face saving measures. There will be a lot of political posturing over that.
Mrr T said:
The most ridiculous element of the TM offer is that with only 18 months to go before train crash brexit the brexit buffoons want to haggle about residency which is likely not contentious.
You do realise that there has to be *some* sort of definition of residency? All of your objections basically amount to wanting completely open borders with free access to all of the rights of residency - on the grounds that anything else would either be too complicated or would inconvenience some people.I'm not clear what Europe has actually offered in terms of reassurance for the millions of UK citizens living and working on the continent?
You need to learn the difference between 'haggling' (your definintion: "not agreeing to everything demanded of them") and trying to establish a basic legal position that both sides can agree on. If you don't, then we're going to repeat this conversation for every point of discussion with the EU.
turbobloke said:
YouGov suggests nothing like that on a national basis. with movement towards Leave:
"The rise of the 'Re-Leavers' means the pro-Brexit electorate is now 68%"
"There is still little sign of any “Bregret”. There is (however) a media appetite for a narrative of the public changing their mind and some newspaper stories based on open-access voodoo polls or cherry-picking individual polls".
I'm not sure that the electorate is pro-Brexit, as the YouGov commentary suggests, rather that many Leavers have accepted it's happening. Ben Chu tweeted this diagram. It suggests people haven't really shifted their position."The rise of the 'Re-Leavers' means the pro-Brexit electorate is now 68%"
"There is still little sign of any “Bregret”. There is (however) a media appetite for a narrative of the public changing their mind and some newspaper stories based on open-access voodoo polls or cherry-picking individual polls".
This letter to the FT (paywall), reproduced below from a tweet by Lionel Barber, suggests that people haven't changed their minds despite evidence of difficulties.
Sean O'Grady is the only newspaper commentator to have changed his mind. After the referendum last year, he said that he voted Leave to help the young, but now expresses regret because of difficulties that have come to light.
Raygun said:
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.....won't except the result of the referendum on our membership of the eu or the result of the last General Election.fido said:
Tryke3 said:
I know what you mean, look at the disaster that is Germany
The Euro is the new Mark - of course it works for Germany. Well until the whole pyramid loan scheme starts to go pear shaped.The poor buggers are just getting extentions and payment holidays on the loans those nice German Commercial banks made to help them buy all those hospitals and machine tools......
Not forgetting all those shiny new Audis bought on consumer credit......
Mrr T said:
You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.
Yes you should.You need to understand the UK will be a sovereign state again and will set its own rules. No country can or will offer a fixed system for eternity, you have to be able to deal with the realities of an ever changing world. God knows how people like you would handle a proper crisis.
All you ever do is moan, even when offered a very good deal. There are a lot of positives in the offer for you and your family. Stop being so negative and look at what good this country offers, we have a huge streak of fairness in our national identity, we always try and do the right thing, even when that costs us.
The continued increase in migration to this country despite the knowledge that we are leaving the EU should tell you something, compared to many other options we are a gold standard country. You know this to be the case, so does your family.
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Would this be the Deloitte report?This is also from the report...
Deloitte said:
The UK is the most favoured global destination, ahead of the US, Australia and Canada - almost 9 out of 10 rank the UK as quite or highly attractive
It might be worth noting this was 'considering' leaving the UK. Not leaving the UK - the report doesn't define 'considering', and also doesn't offer a comparative reference of how many were considering leaving before Brexit.Although I suspect 'considering' is in the weakest terms - given they also report 87% of the global population are considering moving to the UK.
Edit - corrected link
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