How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
mx5nut said:
No worship here. The EU is far from perfect. The UK outside of the EU is likely to be significantly further from perfect.
It's the lesser of two evils by far.
Who caused such hatred of it for you that you're willing to sacrifice the prosperity of your own country to have a brief feeling of getting one over on your neighbours?
I do agree that some people literally do hate the EU and everything it stands for, but most don't. It's the lesser of two evils by far.
Who caused such hatred of it for you that you're willing to sacrifice the prosperity of your own country to have a brief feeling of getting one over on your neighbours?
Edited by mx5nut on Wednesday 18th October 10:32
Many put other considerations before the economic ones, which is fair enough. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. The referendum gave people to opportunity put that opinion into effect.
mx5nut said:
A risk needs to have some potential benefits to be worth it.
As the last few pages of this thread have shown, the best benefits that our resident Brexiteers can think up take seconds to tear down at best, and are contradicted by themselves at worst (all that control over the borders while still keeping an open border).
Once again there are significant benefits. Just because you don’t understand or value them does not mean that they do not exist.As the last few pages of this thread have shown, the best benefits that our resident Brexiteers can think up take seconds to tear down at best, and are contradicted by themselves at worst (all that control over the borders while still keeping an open border).
No, you’ve torn down nothing, you’ve just made your mind up that you’d prefer to be in the EU, and aren’t prepared to take a risk for something better. Which is fine.
PurpleMoonlight said:
I do agree that some people literally do hate the EU and everything it stands for, but most don't.
Many put other considerations before the economic ones, which is fair enough. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. The referendum gave people to opportunity put that opinion into effect.
That’s reasonable, but many also have a different view on the economic ones too!Many put other considerations before the economic ones, which is fair enough. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. The referendum gave people to opportunity put that opinion into effect.
sidicks said:
That’s reasonable, but many also have a different view on the economic ones too!
True.Personally I struggle to see how the economy will be better off for a generation or more (by which time I'll be dead). But people and the press have very short memories and it will all blow over in a few years.
s2art said:
Mrr T said:
What do the position papers matter if the UK leave with no deal. The result of no deal is not about aspirations it’s about the fact there has to be a hard border. There is no other option. Well unless Ireland leave the EU, or we give NI to Ireland.
It would up to the EU and Ireland to impose a hard border. We dont need to, we would maintain the CTA. If thought useful for security we could perform ID checks at all ports.Edited by Mrr T on Wednesday 18th October 11:16
TTwiggy said:
I voted remain for the sake of this country, not for the sake of the EU.
Wouldn't worry, the EU are doing better by most measures.At the moment government opinion on a no deal with the EU ranges from inevitable to unthinkable depending on who is asked and on which day. It's far from clear how pro-brexit politicians will actually deliver the trading relationship they promised during the referendum.
What is certain is the UKs economy needs an economic growth strategy regardless of the outcome, the UKs economy has stagnated by many measures (real income per capita, productivity, gross domestic product) and is still running a budget deficit. Brexit shouldn't mean the government grows negligent over other issues, the basic work of government must go on.
sidicks said:
Mrr T said:
This is a great idea. Let’s get rid of all product standards. Who cares if teddy bears have eyes attached with pins, what’s a few crippled children, when we can have truly free trade.
Yes, that’s definitely what is being proposed. Well done!This is the post I was responding to.
KrissKross said:
TRADE
Trade is carried out between companies and consumers.
Get rid of all Politicians, All the EU staff, and most Solicitors and do you know what, the world would still carry on fine, and probably a lot better!
The people who's job it clearly is to just make stuff are constantly scaring people, not because its true but its because their own "non jobs" are on the line, even at the highest of levels (experts as you would call them).
Trade is carried out between companies and consumers.
Get rid of all Politicians, All the EU staff, and most Solicitors and do you know what, the world would still carry on fine, and probably a lot better!
The people who's job it clearly is to just make stuff are constantly scaring people, not because its true but its because their own "non jobs" are on the line, even at the highest of levels (experts as you would call them).
Edited by Mrr T on Wednesday 18th October 11:36
mx5nut said:
They're happening right now. The only thing holding off the worst of it is the hope that we might be able to turn things around now that the will of the people has shifted.
This is like buying a new house, and halfway through the negotiations and solicitors fees and uncertainty and so on getting cold feet and deciding it would be easier not to move.Some people are capitalising on that period of uncertainty to pretend that something has materially changed. It hasn't. None of the issues with the EU that were raised during the referendum have been addressed - the fiscal insanity of the Euro, the trillion euro debt, the political direction of travel and the inequality built into the system. Rather than reform, we've heard commitments to deepen EU integration from all of the senior members. A year down the line issues like Syria remain unresolved, and foreign policy as a whole is incoherent and unstable.
The idea that the EU is a stable place and that we've finally recovered from the 2008 crash is dangerous in itself. Historically, we're about due for the next global financial shock, and none of the underlying factors (institutional and personal debt, complex ownership chains for debt and limited fiscal options for control) have changed. That's not something that's the "EU's fault" - it's a global problem. Membership or otherwise will not prevent or protect us from whatever comes next, and membership did not protect us last time. However, membership almost certainly does expose us to more risks as we continue to prop up the system.
ORD keeps asking for benefits for leaving - perhaps the above is a reason - there is a strong argument for not continuing to support a system that is not only structurally dangerous, but that also regards any attempt at repair as an attack that must be fought. That's not to claim that the UK is uniquely stable or benign, but to recognise that we stand a better chance of quickly addressing issues that are bound to come if we do not have our fiscal policies tied to a larger political body.
Bringing up the 'If Corbyn gets in.." bogeyman should remind us that we've had governments with dangerous fiscal policies in the past, and the country as a whole moved very quickly to correct them. I'm not clear what the equivalent mechanism is for the EU.
amusingduck said:
mx5nut said:
Funkycoldribena said:
You've fallen for the scare stories then,you'd think you would have learned after the first round didn't come true.
They're happening right now. The only thing holding off the worst of it is the hope that we might be able to turn things around now that the will of the people has shifted.*See: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brex... (BMG Research 21 Sept 2017, 48:52)
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kel... (YouGov 18 Oct 2017, 47:53)
Mrr T said:
I should of cause said there has to be a hard border for goods. CTA relating only to the movement of people.
As far as I am aware, you have to show some form of identification documents at port of embarkation to Dublin and Ireland.Edited by Mrr T on Wednesday 18th October 11:16
ORD said:
So, in summary:
(1) Immigration (the one thing posters on here insist was not an issue for them).
It is crassly simplistic to conflate control of borders with allowing and enabling (or, conversely preventing) immigration.(1) Immigration (the one thing posters on here insist was not an issue for them).
I'm happy to allow immigration, I just think it fairly clear we've recently had neither measurement nor control of who is entering the UK and why.
Greg66 said:
But if point 3 means EU-based, then it's just a variant of point 2 (or point 2 is a variant of point 3; either way the point is not paying money to the EU, however it chooses to spend it).
I thought Digga's point 3 might be Euro (the currency) based catastrophe. In which case if we are post Brexit to be the global player that Brexiteers think we will be, I would have thought our London banks will be no less exposed to Euro-based catastrophe than they are now.
Either way, he's still short of a third point
The Eurozone is still very sick. Italy is still below 2007 GDP and unemployment is huge. There is no easy way of fixing this and Italy is not Greece, cannot be swept under the ECB carpet in the same way. When, not if this and other Euro-based problems hit, there is no way the EU can continue, other than to get it's less impecuniously embarrassed members to stump up more subs. So it is a third point and very valid.I thought Digga's point 3 might be Euro (the currency) based catastrophe. In which case if we are post Brexit to be the global player that Brexiteers think we will be, I would have thought our London banks will be no less exposed to Euro-based catastrophe than they are now.
Either way, he's still short of a third point
Greg66 said:
amusingduck said:
mx5nut said:
Funkycoldribena said:
You've fallen for the scare stories then,you'd think you would have learned after the first round didn't come true.
They're happening right now. The only thing holding off the worst of it is the hope that we might be able to turn things around now that the will of the people has shifted.*See: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brex... (BMG Research 21 Sept 2017, 48:52)
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/blogs/peter-kel... (YouGov 18 Oct 2017, 47:53)
BMG said:
Whilst the Remain lead may be eye-catching, as is the case with all polls that show one side narrowly “out-in-front”, at this stage readers should treat the results with caution. The narrow Remain lead is within the poll’s margin of error, +/- 2.5 percentage points, where we can be confident that that the actual results falls. This means that, as for most polling results published at this time, both sides are effectively “neck and neck”. Indeed, statistically speaking it is entirely possible, from these results, that Leave is slightly ahead.
The poll also shows little evidence of “buyer’s remorse” among Leave supporters. 96% of those that reported voting Leave in 2016, would still vote for the UK’s EU exit. Likewise, 95% of those who voted to Remain, still support the UK staying inside the EU.
Oh dear.The poll also shows little evidence of “buyer’s remorse” among Leave supporters. 96% of those that reported voting Leave in 2016, would still vote for the UK’s EU exit. Likewise, 95% of those who voted to Remain, still support the UK staying inside the EU.
As for your second 'source'
PM said:
Turning points are easy to spot in retrospect, but can be hard to detect at the time. For this reason, the statement that follows is tentative, not definite; but if it turns out to be true, the implications for Britain’s future are profound.
Here goes: public opinion, especially working-class opinion, may have started to move against Brexit. The trend is not certain; and even if the recent shift is real, it may not last. However, the latest YouGov poll for the Times suggests that, for the first time since last year’s referendum, buyers’ remorse could be setting in.
Yep, that is pretty concrete, factual evidence that "the will of the people has shifted". 5 points to you.Here goes: public opinion, especially working-class opinion, may have started to move against Brexit. The trend is not certain; and even if the recent shift is real, it may not last. However, the latest YouGov poll for the Times suggests that, for the first time since last year’s referendum, buyers’ remorse could be setting in.
Tuna said:
This is like buying a new house, and halfway through the negotiations and solicitors fees and uncertainty and so on getting cold feet and deciding it would be easier not to move.
Assuming property values had plummeted or new information had come to light about the construction of the house since the decision to buy, cutting your losses may not be the worst decision.Digga said:
sidicks said:
Mrr T said:
This is a great idea. Let’s get rid of all product standards. Who cares if teddy bears have eyes attached with pins, what’s a few crippled children, when we can have truly free trade.
Yes, that’s definitely what is being proposed. Well done!
Its like thinking we can't legislate for ourselves without the EU? How strange. How sad to be so frightened that we cant think and do things for ourselves again. Which incidentally we set up many standards and requirements to protect the consumer and workers way before any EU or EEC was set up.
Digga said:
ORD said:
So, in summary:
(1) Immigration (the one thing posters on here insist was not an issue for them).
It is crassly simplistic to conflate control of borders with allowing and enabling (or, conversely preventing) immigration.(1) Immigration (the one thing posters on here insist was not an issue for them).
I'm happy to allow immigration, I just think it fairly clear we've recently had neither measurement nor control of who is entering the UK and why.
mx5nut said:
Tuna said:
This is like buying a new house, and halfway through the negotiations and solicitors fees and uncertainty and so on getting cold feet and deciding it would be easier not to move.
Assuming property values had plummeted or new information had come to light about the construction of the house since the decision to buy, cutting your losses may not be the worst decision.Nope.
superlightr said:
Its like thinking we can't legislate for ourselves without the EU? How strange. How sad to be so frightened that we cant think and do things for ourselves again. Which incidentally we set up many standards and requirements to protect the consumer and workers way before any EU or EEC was set up.
But it makes sense to keep consistent standards with our nearest and most powerful neighbours.
And since they're not likely to adopt our standards once we're out, we'll have to adopt theirs.
We'll just no longer have any say in how they are set.
Oops.
mx5nut said:
Digga said:
ORD said:
So, in summary:
(1) Immigration (the one thing posters on here insist was not an issue for them).
It is crassly simplistic to conflate control of borders with allowing and enabling (or, conversely preventing) immigration.(1) Immigration (the one thing posters on here insist was not an issue for them).
I'm happy to allow immigration, I just think it fairly clear we've recently had neither measurement nor control of who is entering the UK and why.
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