How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[hyphen]

Mrr T said:

You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.

Why doesn't your family apply to become citizens of the UK?

[Smollet]

hyphen said:

Mrr T said:

You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.

Why doesn't your family apply to become citizens of the UK?

And become British? Think of all the socially unacceptable baggage that comes with it.

[jjlynn27]

maffski said:

It might be worth noting this was 'considering' leaving the UK. Not leaving the UK - the report doesn't define 'considering', and also doesn't offer a comparative reference of how many were considering leaving before Brexit.

Although I suspect 'considering' is in the weakest terms - given they also report 87% of the global population are considering moving to the UK.

Edit - corrected link

From the report

report said:

• Brexit has shifted perceptions - for those based outside the UK, 21 per cent now find the UK less attractive, compared to 48 per cent for those based here
• Overall, 36 per cent of non-British workers based here are considering leaving in the next five years
• High-skilled EU workers are most likely to leave - 47 per cent over the next five years

Fantastic news, eh?

[mjb1]

Don't the other EU countries have to unanimously agree the UK exit package? There is no way they are going to agree to something that leaves the UK in an equal position to it's current member status. It'll have to be a significantly worse position for the UK, in order for the EU to accept it (partly out of spite/revenge if not pure negotiating, partly because they know a good deal would cause a mass exodus). In fact, it'll be such a bad deal that no deal is going to be the better option (for the UK).

That's why TM is (at least was) leaving the possibility of 'no deal' on the table. Unfortunately, there are some loopy left wingers (and plenty of right wing politicians too) that don't seem to have a clue about negotiating. What really needs to happen is for the UK to put on a united front - left and right, labour and conservative. They all need to call a truce on their silly bickering with each other and realise that they have to stand together to face the EU in a hard nosed negotiation. Or we'll get completely fked over by the EU (which is where it seems to be going at the moment). They're all to self interested in winning their own little bickering domestic battles with each other to have the integrity to stand together against the EU. Remember, JC is a lifelong backbench rebel, the ultimate protester going against pretty much every one and anyone, often seemingly just to be difficult. We need a Cons-Labour coalition right now, and that's never going to happen!

Doesn't matter what sensible/reasonable offer TM is putting on the table, Juncker just poo poos it as not good enough. Then the domestic left wingers get hold of it and pour a load of negativity over it and show us as a totally divided nation (divide and conquer, it's obvious). Then she has no choice but to come back with ever more generous offers, until we get to he point of Brexit being so 'soft', that we might as well have stayed in.

So I think the best thing that could happen is that the UK vs EU spend the next two years not agreeing on a single thing, and we go out with no deal. Otherwise we're going to get reamed by the EU, it'll be such an awful deal that the country is much worse off. And then all the remainers will be smugly shouting from the roof tops about how bad an idea Brexit was (yes, mainly because they've scuppered it).

[skahigh]

jjlynn27 said:

maffski said:

It might be worth noting this was 'considering' leaving the UK. Not leaving the UK - the report doesn't define 'considering', and also doesn't offer a comparative reference of how many were considering leaving before Brexit.

Although I suspect 'considering' is in the weakest terms - given they also report 87% of the global population are considering moving to the UK.

Edit - corrected link

From the report

report said:

• Brexit has shifted perceptions - for those based outside the UK, 21 per cent now find the UK less attractive, compared to 48 per cent for those based here
• Overall, 36 per cent of non-British workers based here are considering leaving in the next five years
• High-skilled EU workers are most likely to leave - 47 per cent over the next five years

Fantastic news, eh?

Where is that (in bold) in the report?

I see this:



There's a difference between 'high-skilled EU workers are most likely to leave' and 'high-skilled workers are most likely to consider leaving'.

It's possible that they are most likely to consider leaving and at the same time being most likely to stay (because conditions favour it more than for unskilled workers).

I'm not saying that will definitely be the case but, it seems like you've twisted the wording of the report there to suit your point.

[p1stonhead]

mjb1 said:

Doesn't matter what sensible/reasonable offer TM is putting on the table, Juncker just poo poos it as not good enough. Then she has no choice but to come back with ever more generous offers, until we get to he point of Brexit being so 'soft', that we might as well have stayed in.

You make it sound like this wasnt her (remainer) plan all along......

Edited by p1stonhead on Tuesday 27th June 12:25

[jjlynn27]

skahigh said:

...

I'm not saying that will definitely be the case but, it seems like you've twisted the wording of the report there to suit your point.

Direct cut and paste from the report. No edits. From the link under "key findings".

[Mrr T]

hyphen said:

Mrr T said:

You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.

Why doesn't your family apply to become citizens of the UK?

The reason is that a couple of years ago the UK changed the rules on getting permanent residency. They also in a very dubious legal move back dated the change. For that reason my wife cannot now cannot get permanent residency before 2022: even though she has lived in the UK for over 10 years.

[alock]

mikebradford said:

I believe on certain minor aspects agreement will be happen.
But the EU simply cannot risk giving the UK a deal equal to or better than it currently has on others.

To do so would encourage other EU countries to consider the possibility of leaving the EU themselves.

As such by the end of negotiations I see us leaving without a deal on the majority of aspects.
This will turn into a couple of years of economic uncertainty. But one which 5 years after we will look on as being worth it for the position we will then find ourselves in.

I also believe depending on the world economy, not expanding very much, that the EU may see further economic difficulties which will continue to undermine the EUs leaders.

The problem is that everyone has a different definition if what a good deal is. Take the easy to understand concept of free movement of people. I'll massively simplify but generally....

The EU think free movement of people is a good thing so can punish us by taking it away.
The leavers think free movement of people is a bad thing so are pleased we no longer have it.
The remainers think free movement of people is a good thing so think we are being punished.

Ironically enough, the best way for the EU to punish us is to try and force us to retain some of the EU 'benefits'. A remainer would then actually see this as a good deal.

[Mrr T]

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.

Yes you should.

You need to understand the UK will be a sovereign state again and will set its own rules. No country can or will offer a fixed system for eternity, you have to be able to deal with the realities of an ever changing world. God knows how people like you would handle a proper crisis.

All you ever do is moan, even when offered a very good deal. There are a lot of positives in the offer for you and your family. Stop being so negative and look at what good this country offers, we have a huge streak of fairness in our national identity, we always try and do the right thing, even when that costs us.

The continued increase in migration to this country despite the knowledge that we are leaving the EU should tell you something, compared to many other options we are a gold standard country. You know this to be the case, so does your family.

This post shows why The ECHR is so important.

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.

Yes you should.

You need to understand the UK will be a sovereign state again and will set its own rules. No country can or will offer a fixed system for eternity, you have to be able to deal with the realities of an ever changing world. God knows how people like you would handle a proper crisis.

All you ever do is moan, even when offered a very good deal. There are a lot of positives in the offer for you and your family. Stop being so negative and look at what good this country offers, we have a huge streak of fairness in our national identity, we always try and do the right thing, even when that costs us.

The continued increase in migration to this country despite the knowledge that we are leaving the EU should tell you something, compared to many other options we are a gold standard country. You know this to be the case, so does your family.

This post shows why The ECHR is so important.

It shows how fair minded most people in the UK are, it also shows we have a system of law that is enforced. It's why the UK has major corporations headquartered here.

You try and paint the UK as some tin pot state that doesn't have a long established history of looking after it's citizens. Well before the EU we were doing just that. We will continue to do that post EU.

[JagLover]

mjb1 said:

So I think the best thing that could happen is that the UK vs EU spend the next two years not agreeing on a single thing, and we go out with no deal. Otherwise we're going to get reamed by the EU, it'll be such an awful deal that the country is much worse off. And then all the remainers will be smugly shouting from the roof tops about how bad an idea Brexit was (yes, mainly because they've scuppered it).

Same here

and at every turn make sure the EU position on every issue is broadcast load and clear.

Good start with the EU citizens offer. Most people in the UK who study the offer will consider it fair. Not good enough apparently according to the EU.

Next up will be the financial divorce settlement...

[p1stonhead]

JagLover said:

mjb1 said:

So I think the best thing that could happen is that the UK vs EU spend the next two years not agreeing on a single thing, and we go out with no deal. Otherwise we're going to get reamed by the EU, it'll be such an awful deal that the country is much worse off. And then all the remainers will be smugly shouting from the roof tops about how bad an idea Brexit was (yes, mainly because they've scuppered it).

Same here

and at every turn make sure the EU position on every issue is broadcast load and clear.

Good start with the EU citizens offer. Most people in the UK who study the offer will consider it fair. Not good enough apparently according to the EU.

Next up will be the financial divorce settlement...

Oh so if it all goes tits up, its remainers fault for putting a downer on it!

[skahigh]

jjlynn27 said:

skahigh said:

...

I'm not saying that will definitely be the case but, it seems like you've twisted the wording of the report there to suit your point.

Direct cut and paste from the report. No edits. From the link under "key findings".

Apologies, I see you've taken it from the summary on the web page, this is different from what the report itself actually states.

[jonnyb]

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

jsf said:

Mrr T said:

You’re missing the point. My family is NOT being given any rights. The government was threatening to take rights away. Should I be celebrating getting to keep thing I already legally have.

Yes you should.

You need to understand the UK will be a sovereign state again and will set its own rules. No country can or will offer a fixed system for eternity, you have to be able to deal with the realities of an ever changing world. God knows how people like you would handle a proper crisis.

All you ever do is moan, even when offered a very good deal. There are a lot of positives in the offer for you and your family. Stop being so negative and look at what good this country offers, we have a huge streak of fairness in our national identity, we always try and do the right thing, even when that costs us.

The continued increase in migration to this country despite the knowledge that we are leaving the EU should tell you something, compared to many other options we are a gold standard country. You know this to be the case, so does your family.

This post shows why The ECHR is so important.

It shows how fair minded most people in the UK are, it also shows we have a system of law that is enforced. It's why the UK has major corporations headquartered here.

You try and paint the UK as some tin pot state that doesn't have a long established history of looking after it's citizens. Well before the EU we were doing just that. We will continue to do that post EU.

This country is going a very good job of becoming a tin pot state all on its own, it doesn't need anyone "painting" it as such. Just take a look at the Mauritius debacle and you can see it writ large!

Also, don't forget, that long established history, is only very recent. You don't have to go too far back to see what the UK was capable of with regards to its citizens, or anyone else.

We invented concentration camps, Thatcher instigated internment, the list goes on. The ECHR is more necessary now than at any time in our history.

[Dr Jekyll]

jonnyb said:

Thatcher instigated internment,

WHAT?

That's a wild fantasy even for a leftie.

[handpaper]

mjb1 said:

Don't the other EU countries have to unanimously agree the UK exit package?

M. Barnier has a mandate from the European Council (Ta Mrr T) to negotiate on behalf of the EU 27 in this matter.
However, since I believe the exit deal must be ratified (albeit by QMV), there still exists the possibility of it not being approved. What happens then, nobody knows.

On a different tack, I was asked a few days ago what I thought the response would be to the EU's taking indefensible positions or refusing to negotiate in good faith (as Varoufakis predicted).

My response?



If they make themselves the enemy, it will not end well.

[Cobnapint]

mjb1 said:

Don't the other EU countries have to unanimously agree the UK exit package? There is no way they are going to agree to something that leaves the UK in an equal position to it's current member status. It'll have to be a significantly worse position for the UK, in order for the EU to accept it (partly out of spite/revenge if not pure negotiating, partly because they know a good deal would cause a mass exodus). In fact, it'll be such a bad deal that no deal is going to be the better option (for the UK).

That's why TM is (at least was) leaving the possibility of 'no deal' on the table. Unfortunately, there are some loopy left wingers (and plenty of right wing politicians too) that don't seem to have a clue about negotiating. What really needs to happen is for the UK to put on a united front - left and right, labour and conservative. They all need to call a truce on their silly bickering with each other and realise that they have to stand together to face the EU in a hard nosed negotiation. Or we'll get completely fked over by the EU (which is where it seems to be going at the moment). They're all to self interested in winning their own little bickering domestic battles with each other to have the integrity to stand together against the EU. Remember, JC is a lifelong backbench rebel, the ultimate protester going against pretty much every one and anyone, often seemingly just to be difficult. We need a Cons-Labour coalition right now, and that's never going to happen!

Doesn't matter what sensible/reasonable offer TM is putting on the table, Juncker just poo poos it as not good enough. Then the domestic left wingers get hold of it and pour a load of negativity over it and show us as a totally divided nation (divide and conquer, it's obvious). Then she has no choice but to come back with ever more generous offers, until we get to he point of Brexit being so 'soft', that we might as well have stayed in.

So I think the best thing that could happen is that the UK vs EU spend the next two years not agreeing on a single thing, and we go out with no deal. Otherwise we're going to get reamed by the EU, it'll be such an awful deal that the country is much worse off. And then all the remainers will be smugly shouting from the roof tops about how bad an idea Brexit was (yes, mainly because they've scuppered it).

This.

Whenever an EU representative stands in Brussels and says they don't want to punish the UK for Brexit, you know they are lying through their teeth.

Any deal that that has the slightest hint of NOT being disadvantageous to the UK will be seen as a green light for others to consider leaving. And for Germany in particular, that is a no-no.

I've said before, keeping the EU together is a far bigger priority for Germany and France than selling a few BMWs, Audi's, Mercs and Renaults. It is they that will be the sacrificial lambs in these negotiations. Prepare for WTO tariffs folks.

[Tuna]

Mrr T said:

The reason is that a couple of years ago the UK changed the rules on getting permanent residency. They also in a very dubious legal move back dated the change. For that reason my wife cannot now cannot get permanent residency before 2022: even though she has lived in the UK for over 10 years.

Given the unrelented negative nature of your posts, I'm sure that this has been asked before. Why don't you go somewhere else? I've got friends who've emigrated (and naturalised) in Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong, Austria, Spain and America amongst others. They've all been delighted with their new homes and in each case have found places that suit them more than 'tin pot' Britain. You clearly aren't happy and seem much more of a mindset that would suit a new start abroad. You've got the whole world to choose from, why stay somewhere that's making you miserable?

[turbobloke]

Cobnapint said:

mjb1 said:

Don't the other EU countries have to unanimously agree the UK exit package?.

This.

Snipped to add...not that!

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-mechanics-...

"A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament."

The underscore is my emphasis.