How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[Dr Jekyll]

rxe said:

Dr Jekyll said:

How did we manage to get to France before we joined the EEC?

When I was little, I went on a hovercraft. It was ace!

Do you think we can go back to hovercraft when we leave?

OK I'll rephrase the question.

If leaving the EU means it will be impossible to travel to France without a visa agreement, how did we manage to get to France when we weren't in the EU/EEC?

[Yipper]

citizensm1th said:

Yipper said:

In conclusion -- Goldman is highly unlikely to move anything but a token gesture office to Frankfurt.

they have just leased 8 floors of a building in Frankfurt

It will take the number of Frankfurt staff to about ~500.

There are ~6000 in London.

Goldman is opening a 1.1 million square-foot office in London in 2019.

Goldman is just stirring the pot for some government freebies.

[citizensm1th]

B'stard Child said:

I'd rather have those hydrofoil things for speed than a hovercraft

But to be honest I really like the ferry best - I take that over the tunnel everytime

ahhh yes more drinking time

i would rather they brought back those car carrying aeroplanes a la the jackal.............ohhh bugger

[anonymous-user]

B'stard Child said:

I'd rather have those hydrofoil things for speed than a hovercraft

But to be honest I really like the ferry best - I take that over the tunnel everytime

I always go Flexi-plus via the channel these days. Rock up, straight to a dedicated access road to the flexi-plus cabin where you get given a free meal, coffee etc then drive straight on the next train before anyone else, get off the other side first and away you go. Saves a lot of time and no need to worry about missing your slot if you get stuck in traffic.

[rxe]

Dr Jekyll said:

OK I'll rephrase the question.

If leaving the EU means it will be impossible to travel to France without a visa agreement, how did we manage to get to France when we weren't in the EU/EEC?

Oh, I agree with you, I’m just looking for a suitable parrot... :-)

Hell, in the 60s my mum lived in Spain, even built a house and registered a car. We still have the house, pity about the car because it was an f-off V8 Merc that would probably be worth a fortune today. So, she lived in a dictatorship, drove across France, sometimes went to Italy, and back home to the UK, all before the EEC existed. If my mum could do it, I’m sure we’ll find a way.

I have bad memories of the ferry. I was bet that I couldn’t drink a bottle of baileys by a mate. I won the bet. I get the shakes when I see Baileys 30 years later...

[richie99]

jonnyb said:

The Wizz Air AOC will be based in the UK, but they won’t be able to fly to, or over the EU. The Thomas Cook AOC is based in Spain, so still,won’t be able to fly to or over the UK.

If we leave with no deal at all, all flights into and out of the UK to EU desitnations or using EU airspace will be grounded. You will probably be able to get to the US, just.

Maybe. Except the deal which allows the UK airlines to fly to the US is (you know where this is going don’t you) ....an EU deal. So that’s another deal we need.

[Vaud]

citizensm1th said:

Yipper said:

In conclusion -- Goldman is highly unlikely to move anything but a token gesture office to Frankfurt.

they have just leased 8 floors of a building in Frankfurt

They'd probably sublet them for a profit if they didn't use them. This is Goldman Sachs. Very very smart people.

[richie99]

Dr Jekyll said:

How did we manage to get to France before we joined the EEC?

We had an agreement. How do you think we did it otherwise? My point is not how likely different scenarios are it is that only a complete cretin could imagine a world in which there is no deal as a practical proposition. The original question was what would ‘no deal’ look like. I mentioned a few basic problems.

[Dr Jekyll]

richie99 said:

Dr Jekyll said:

How did we manage to get to France before we joined the EEC?

We had an agreement. How do you think we did it otherwise? My point is not how likely different scenarios are it is that only a complete cretin could imagine a world in which there is no deal as a practical proposition. The original question was what would ‘no deal’ look like. I mentioned a few basic problems.

What kind of agreement? What did visas have to do with it? We can travel to countries with the UK doesn't even have diplomatic relations, do you really think we'll be able to get to North Korea but not France or Spain?

Edited by Dr Jekyll on Thursday 19th October 21:04

[hyphen]

I just want to wish the remainers a good nights sleep, with all the fears they hold, I worry they may be having restless nights, nightmares or just not managing to sleep at all.

Relax people, the sky isn't going to fall down.

Planes wil fly, we will get to France ok, Goldman will still be probing its tentacles.

[alfie2244]

Dr Jekyll said:

richie99 said:

Dr Jekyll said:

How did we manage to get to France before we joined the EEC?

We had an agreement. How do you think we did it otherwise? My point is not how likely different scenarios are it is that only a complete cretin could imagine a world in which there is no deal as a practical proposition. The original question was what would ‘no deal’ look like. I mentioned a few basic problems.

What kind of agreement? What did visas have to do with it?

I remember not having a passport...going to Dover main Post Office and getting a one day passport......jumping on the ferry to Calais and IIRC the ferry ticket cost £1 + a token from a newspaper. So if it could be so easy then, with the advent of computers, it should be even easier now.

[richie99]

Dr Jekyll said:

What kind of agreement? What did visas have to do with it? We can travel to countries with the UK doesn't even have diplomatic relations, do you really think we'll be able to get to North Korea but not France or Spain?

Edited by Dr Jekyll on Thursday 19th October 21:04

Maybe I do need to spell it out more clearly. We had an agreement permitting visa free travel between the UK and France. Without an agreement you can’t just tip up and hope for the best. Unless you plan to claim asylum.
Edit to answer your N Korea question. If we have no agreement with France and Spain the answer is yes.

I wouldn’t really claim to be a ‘retainer’ in spite of it all. I hate Brussels and all it’s evil works more than anyone. I’ve worked there.

Edited by richie99 on Thursday 19th October 21:13

[Dr Jekyll]

alfie2244 said:

Dr Jekyll said:

richie99 said:

Dr Jekyll said:

How did we manage to get to France before we joined the EEC?

We had an agreement. How do you think we did it otherwise? My point is not how likely different scenarios are it is that only a complete cretin could imagine a world in which there is no deal as a practical proposition. The original question was what would ‘no deal’ look like. I mentioned a few basic problems.

What kind of agreement? What did visas have to do with it?

I remember not having a passport...going to Dover main Post Office and getting a one day passport......jumping on the ferry to Calais and IIRC the ferry ticket cost £1 + a token from a newspaper. So if it could be so easy then, with the advent of computers, Ii should be even easier now.

Too many remainers think it's impossible to do anything without complex government regulations to permit it.

[///ajd]

Tuna said:

The French and German financial centres have been trying to take services away from London since forever, with various justifications as to why it should be enabled by legislation and political support. What is notable is how effective those attempts have been - not very.

Correct.

We - whilst in the EU - have fought off and defended every attempt to undermine our FS sector by the EU.

We have now handed the EU - on a plate - the perfect mandate to play merry hell with our FS sector.

As Homer would say - Doh!

[Sway]

///ajd said:

Tuna said:

The French and German financial centres have been trying to take services away from London since forever, with various justifications as to why it should be enabled by legislation and political support. What is notable is how effective those attempts have been - not very.

Correct.

We - whilst in the EU - have fought off and defended every attempt to undermine our FS sector by the EU.

We have now handed the EU - on a plate - the perfect mandate to play merry hell with our FS sector.

As Homer would say - Doh!

How?

In order to do so, they'd have to create the capability and capacity.

Compared to BIPs, this is an immense task.

If they freeze us out through lack of deal in 18 or so month's time (or even after any mooted transition period), then they lose access to their key provider of FS services. Crippling for their economies (see the conversation about the challenges of no airspace deal for us, and multiply those challenges).

Yet, as you say they've been trying for years to compete with London, and failed (not just legislatively, but also in straight competition). If they protect their ability to access the CoL, then their ability to create the capability and capacity to replace it is seriously reduced.

So by what mechanism would they be able to refuse a deal and switch the provision to the continent?

[///ajd]

mx5nut said:

It's OK, there was a useful idiot Brexit expert there to set him straight

At least he didn't say he was lying about the weather or something inconsequential. That's a step up from some.

[anonymous-user]

///ajd said:

Correct.

We - whilst in the EU - have fought off and defended every attempt to undermine our FS sector by the EU.

We have now handed the EU - on a plate - the perfect mandate to play merry hell with our FS sector.

As Homer would say - Doh!

Then the citizens of the EU are about to become exceedingly poor, because to do that they will have to shut out the ROW too.

[voyds9]

richie99 said:

Maybe I do need to spell it out more clearly. We had an agreement permitting visa free travel between the UK and France. Without an agreement you can’t just tip up and hope for the best. Unless you plan to claim asylum.
Edit to answer your N Korea question. If we have no agreement with France and Spain the answer is yes.

I wouldn’t really claim to be a ‘retainer’ in spite of it all. I hate Brussels and all it’s evil works more than anyone. I’ve worked there.

Edited by richie99 on Thursday 19th October 21:13

And yet we will find a way to let the Europeans already here stay (and us over there also).

[///ajd]

Mario149 said:

///ajd said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

///ajd said:

Plus outside the mar 2019 point the art 50 revoke option is removed and we really are then screwed.

There isn't a revoke option, don't kid yourself.

In my view, I think there is. The hidden legal advice also may well support this. But I also think it definately lapses without specific action before Mar 2019 - then there is no way back without a tortuous re-entry process that I don’t think we’ll have the stomach for for 20 years.

It is a critical date, which is why a hollow transition period may just lull us in false sense of “progress”. Its more like walking the plank - having let the ship.

Not sure I agree with that. Transition period is going to look like EU membership to all intents and purposes, just without any say. If a new, pro EU, gov asked back in during that time with same conditions as the status quo ante, the EU would give it, guaranteed and in about 5s. Having us back in and contributing is what they want.

You may be right, but I suspect it is a lot less certain than a simple withdrawal of Art 50 intent before the period lapses.

I think if we change our mind before Mar 19, there is little wriggle room over even things like the rebate.

After then, I suspect it could be a free for all on our membership benefits & conditions.

No doubt you can dig up lawyers who can give you opinions either way - but the scope for uncertainty seems much much higher post Mar 19.

[bobbylondonuk]

It doesn't really matter what games they play. The money always comes into London first. Everyone with a bit of cash anywhere in the world would prefer to deal with London rather than Paris Frankfurt Milan. If it was any different there would be a tremendous amount of cash flowing directly into the EU and they would not have to think about stealing our business