How do we think EU negotiations will go?

[Sway]

AC43 said:

handpaper said:

If they make themselves the enemy, it will not end well.

Rightio ho. I'll just pop down to the City of London and let them know that all the banks will be OK now.

It's OK - Bloomberg (you know, the chaps that donated a quarter mill to the remain campaign and claimed a vast majority of economists predicted London's FS sector would be decimated) have just come out to say they were wrong, and for a ton of reasons pointed out on here months ago, FS is going to do just fine, even under a 'super hard, extreme gonzo Brexit'.

So what do you know that they don't considering that's a fairly staggering about face?

Edited to add link: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-27...

Edited by Sway on Tuesday 27th June 17:29

[Robertj21a]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

A Hard Brexit (assuming we mean that we are leaving the EU without agreements reached) must still be considered as a strong possibility. To many, it won't matter so much whether it's Hard or Soft - just that we leave the EU, somehow.

[Burwood]

Robertj21a said:

A Hard Brexit (assuming we mean that we are leaving the EU without agreements reached) must still be considered as a strong possibility. To many, it won't matter so much whether it's Hard or Soft - just that we leave the EU, somehow.

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

That's my view-it won't be a hard exit. Would i bet the farm on it? No but that is my strong belief. If i'm wrong so be it.

[Robertj21a]

Burwood said:

Robertj21a said:

A Hard Brexit (assuming we mean that we are leaving the EU without agreements reached) must still be considered as a strong possibility. To many, it won't matter so much whether it's Hard or Soft - just that we leave the EU, somehow.

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

That's my view-it won't be a hard exit. Would i bet the farm on it? No but that is my strong belief. If i'm wrong so be it.

I would also agree, but the possibility is certainly there. At this stage we really have no idea how the EU 'gang' will treat us - and their terms may still prove to be unacceptable [they may well be wrong, but it will then be too late].

[s2art]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

Still lots of work going on to assess the economic consequences. See

https://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/ce...

[jjlynn27]

Sway said:

AC43 said:

handpaper said:

If they make themselves the enemy, it will not end well.

Rightio ho. I'll just pop down to the City of London and let them know that all the banks will be OK now.

It's OK - Bloomberg (you know, the chaps that donated a quarter mill to the remain campaign and claimed a vast majority of economists predicted London's FS sector would be decimated) have just come out to say they were wrong, and for a ton of reasons pointed out on here months ago, FS is going to do just fine, even under a 'super hard, extreme gonzo Brexit'.

So what do you know that they don't considering that's a fairly staggering about face?

Edited to add link: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-27...

Edited by Sway on Tuesday 27th June 17:29

LOL. Hardly surprising that you can't understand what an 'opinion' piece is.

They even put this at the end;

Bloomberg OPINION piece said:

'This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.'

[AC43]

Sway said:

AC43 said:

handpaper said:

If they make themselves the enemy, it will not end well.

Rightio ho. I'll just pop down to the City of London and let them know that all the banks will be OK now.

It's OK - Bloomberg (you know, the chaps that donated a quarter mill to the remain campaign and claimed a vast majority of economists predicted London's FS sector would be decimated) have just come out to say they were wrong, and for a ton of reasons pointed out on here months ago, FS is going to do just fine, even under a 'super hard, extreme gonzo Brexit'.

So what do you know that they don't considering that's a fairly staggering about face?

Edited to add link: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-27...

Edited by Sway on Tuesday 27th June 17:29

I just know that the whole thing is pissing people and organisations off, creating confusion and concern, forcing organisations to form several different plans and is just one ginormous pain in the arse.

The FT did a piece which I posted the five different scenarios they foresaw and the ranged from bad to crippling.

Or try listening to Phillip Hammond, the IOD or the CBI have to say about it.

It's st.

Oh and in case you haven't noticed it's blown the parliamentary Conservative party up completely. In her campaign May turned into some sort of deranged Brexit campaigner and she now the left us with a very real prospect of Marxist labour administration.

This is the biggest single fkup in post war history.

Still I suppose we can still "fight them on the beaches" whatever that means.

Edited by AC43 on Tuesday 27th June 18:00

[Sway]

AC43 said:

I just know that the whole thing is pissing people and organisations off, creating confusion and concern, forcing organisations to form several different plans and is just one ginormous pain in the arse.

The FT did a piece which I posted the five different scenarios they foresaw and the ranged from bad to crippling.

Or try listening to Phillip Hammond, the IOD or the CBI have to say about it.

It's st.

Oh and in case you haven't noticed it's blown the parliamentary Conservative party up completely. In her campaign May turned into some sort of deranged Brexit campaigner and she now the left us with a very real prospect of Marxist labour administration.

This is the biggest single fkup in post war history.

Still I suppose we can still "fight them on the beaches" whatever that means.

Edited by AC43 on Tuesday 27th June 18:00

Organisations such as banks make contingency plans for fun (certainly at the bank I worked at some of the scenarios were insane, yet they still made the plans...).

What basis is there for the CoL being diminished? Certainly not on passporting, as that's a game we would win with the volume of basic lending for the continent coming through London.

Not euro clearing, which would seriously undermine confidence in the euro and take a long time to begin to setup the capability for.

Not tariffs.

So what exactly is the problem that's going to kill London as the world's premier FS city?

[Mrr T]

Tuna said:

Mrr T said:

I would suggest ignoring all relevant research allows you to ignore the complexities.

There is no relevant research. It's all opinion based on people's current prejudices. No-one knows what will happen because we've not done this before.

There's a whole lot of "This will be difficult because this is the way we do these things", but it sounds exactly the same as the people who said that 'research' had shown there would be an immediate and catastrophic recession, that we'd need an emergency budget and that we'd lose London as a financial center.

I think you may not understand this brexit thing. If we leave with no agreement with the rEU the rEU does not make up how the UK will have to deal with the rEU.

If we take trade for example, if we leave the SM and the CU the rules under which the UK will have to trade with the rEU are all written. Indeed, these are the rules the UK currently has to apply when it trades with a non EU country, which has no form of TA with the EU.

Let’s take another example. We have a lot of successful pharmaceutical companies in the UK. If the UK leaves the EU with no agreement the rules under which those companies can continue to sell to the rEU are already written and apply to any non EU pharmaceutical company wanting to sell to the EU.

How about another example. Food exports. If we leave with no deal then the rules for food imports into the EU are already written. A few minutes research on the UK government web site shows the rules as they now apply to imports of food into the UK.

This idea we will not know what the rules will be on trade with the rEU if the Uk leaves without any agreement is ridiculous. The rules are all written and it’s not hard to find them and realise no deal is a very bad deal.

[mjb1]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

What are the implications of hard brexit exactly? I mean hard facts, not merely your opinions and predictions.

oh, and I got a B grade in GCSE economics.

[Mrr T]

Sway said:

So what exactly is the problem that's going to kill London as the world's premier FS city?

I think you will find New York, Hong Kong, and Tokyo will dispute London is the premier FS centre.

What will kill it is that without passport a sales person selling FS products from London who called a customer/ potential customer in the rEU would be committing a criminal offence in the rEU.

[Robertj21a]

AC43 said:

I just know that the whole thing is pissing people and organisations off, creating confusion and concern, forcing organisations to form several different plans and is just one ginormous pain in the arse.

The FT did a piece which I posted the five different scenarios they foresaw and the ranged from bad to crippling.

Or try listening to Phillip Hammond, the IOD or the CBI have to say about it.

It's st.

Oh and in case you haven't noticed it's blown the parliamentary Conservative party up completely. In her campaign May turned into some sort of deranged Brexit campaigner and she now the left us with a very real prospect of Marxist labour administration.

This is the biggest single fkup in post war history.

Still I suppose we can still "fight them on the beaches" whatever that means.

Edited by AC43 on Tuesday 27th June 18:00

You do seem to be getting a bit upset by it ! - perhaps a lie down would help

From the tone of your various posts I assume that you wanted us to Remain in the EU - and see no hope for us now we're leaving ?

[AC43]

Robertj21a said:

AC43 said:

I just know that the whole thing is pissing people and organisations off, creating confusion and concern, forcing organisations to form several different plans and is just one ginormous pain in the arse.

The FT did a piece which I posted the five different scenarios they foresaw and the ranged from bad to crippling.

Or try listening to Phillip Hammond, the IOD or the CBI have to say about it.

It's st.

Oh and in case you haven't noticed it's blown the parliamentary Conservative party up completely. In her campaign May turned into some sort of deranged Brexit campaigner and she now the left us with a very real prospect of Marxist labour administration.

This is the biggest single fkup in post war history.

Still I suppose we can still "fight them on the beaches" whatever that means.

Edited by AC43 on Tuesday 27th June 18:00

You do seem to be getting a bit upset by it ! - perhaps a lie down would help

From the tone of your various posts I assume that you wanted us to Remain in the EU - and see no hope for us now we're leaving ?

Wasn't in love with the EU but on balance thought it best to stay.

I hated the Little England stance of Farage at the time and cringe at the Shout-Loudly-at-the-Foreigners approach of Dangerous Davies.

I hate what it's done to politics in this country and the divisions it has sown (just like Indy Ref in Scotland).

The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.

I'm not saying the world is going to end but we've just created a massive drag on the economy for absolutely no guarantee of any upside.

Other views are available of course.

[Sway]

Mrr T said:

Sway said:

So what exactly is the problem that's going to kill London as the world's premier FS city?

I think you will find New York, Hong Kong, and Tokyo will dispute London is the premier FS centre.

What will kill it is that without passport a sales person selling FS products from London who called a customer/ potential customer in the rEU would be committing a criminal offence in the rEU.

They may dispute it, but really only NY has a claim: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_centre

PwC share the same view...

On passporting, it's been a while since I've posted, but I'm sure you'll remember the links posted that showed the majority of lending across the EU was transacted in London. On that basis (and ignoring mifid which will make it irrelevant anyway) can you really see any of the tinpot European financial centres being able to gear up even remotely close to what's required to handle those volumes? Getting decision makers on high incomes to move to Paris? Or take their kids to enrol at those fine Frankfurt schools whilst their prettier halves enjoy the shopping and socialising amenities?

It's a non starter, for so many reasons...

[Robertj21a]

AC43 said:

Wasn't in love with the EU but on balance thought it best to stay.

I hated the Little England stance of Farage at the time and cringe at the Shout-Loudly-at-the-Foreigners approach of Dangerous Davies.

I hate what it's done to politics in this country and the divisions it has sown (just like Indy Ref in Scotland).

The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.

I'm not saying the world is going to end but we've just created a massive drag on the economy for absolutely no guarantee of any upside.

Other views are available of course.

It seems that some people simply put 'sovereignty' (and whatever they understand by it) above the economy. It could provide an interesting debate.

[Tuna]

Mrr T said:

I think you may not understand this brexit thing. If we leave with no agreement with the rEU the rEU does not make up how the UK will have to deal with the rEU.

...

This idea we will not know what the rules will be on trade with the rEU if the Uk leaves without any agreement is ridiculous. The rules are all written and it’s not hard to find them and realise no deal is a very bad deal.

How is it a bad deal? Seriously, you keep saying that, but what is actually going to hurt our trade with the EU under (assumed no deal) WTO rules? Quote me a tariff that you think is serious enough to bring the UK to its knees?

Edited to add:

And to save waiting, I will end up replying that the shift in the pound (and probably further shift if we do go 'no deal') is more than likely larger than the imposed extra tariffs.

That's not to say that some trading patterns won't shift, but frankly, if WTO is the end of the world, I'm amazed that the rest of the world manages to survive without the EU.

And that's the whole point. Yes we know the rules *if* we get that specific version of no deal. But we don't know how the rest of the world will react, how elastic our own trading is, what the currency rates will do or all the other complex economic stuff that comes together to make a nation work. You can point to tariffs for all you like, but that is not research - it's just another statistic that means nothing until we see how the whole bloody globe reacts to a no-deal Brexit. Because none of this stuff happens in isolation.

And that's exactly why pundits predicted the end of London as a financial centre - they looked at one set of data points and decided that nothing could protect the City. Now suddenly we get a big public climb down that *specifically* talks about the "unique circumstances" of London - ie. it's not a major financial centre just because one set of statistics say so.

Edited by Tuna on Tuesday 27th June 19:48

[Sway]

Tuna said:

Mrr T said:

I think you may not understand this brexit thing. If we leave with no agreement with the rEU the rEU does not make up how the UK will have to deal with the rEU.

...

This idea we will not know what the rules will be on trade with the rEU if the Uk leaves without any agreement is ridiculous. The rules are all written and it’s not hard to find them and realise no deal is a very bad deal.

How is it a bad deal? Seriously, you keep saying that, but what is actually going to hurt our trade with the EU under (assumed no deal) WTO rules? Quote me a tariff that you think is serious enough to bring the UK to its knees?

They'll stop buying patented medicines... Oh wait, no they won't.

They'll stop selling us food... Well actually that's quite likely seeing as the import tariffs they levy (and force us to) are pretty high. So much so that cost of living is likely to drop by an appreciable amount upon leaving. But of course we'll stop selling food to the Europeans. None at all. Every farmer relies on European exports and so every single one will be on the dole.

They'll take our banks. Hold on, that might be a tad tricky seeing as they have hardly any volume compared to that passing through London.

I'm sure there's something. Perhaps TVR's revival is fked?

[Dr Jekyll]

AC43 said:

The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.

We aren't trying to go back to 1953, there was no WTO in 1953. What we are trying to do is respond to the fact that the world has gone global by being free to set up trade deals worldwide, or failing that lift some import tariffs. Both things the EU currently prevents.

The most successful exporters in Europe are the Swiss, and they aren't in the EU.

[Tuna]

AC43 said:

The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.

Seriously? You think that the continued imposition of post WWII politics and a desperate love of trade barriers and a special boys' club represents 'global'?

Global is out there - it's Asia, the Americas, the Eastern Bloc and the Middle East. Leaving is about accepting that and moving forward, not clinging on to what is increasingly ancient history.

[Murph7355]

AC43 said:

Wasn't in love with the EU but on balance thought it best to stay.

I hated the Little England stance of Farage at the time and cringe at the Shout-Loudly-at-the-Foreigners approach of Dangerous Davies.

I hate what it's done to politics in this country and the divisions it has sown (just like Indy Ref in Scotland).

The world went global 25 years ago and why we're trying to go back to 1953 or something is beyond me.

I'm not saying the world is going to end but we've just created a massive drag on the economy for absolutely no guarantee of any upside.

Other views are available of course.

Referenda don't divide the country people do. The referenda are simply highlighting that division.

Strong opinions would still have been there even if no referenda had taken place. Hiding from it cures nothing.

The world has been looking to global for a while. So why is the EU so protectionist?

The world is ever evolving. An EU that was a trading block of broadly similar economies was a great idea. What it is now is not. If it was, everyone would be following suit. They aren't.

It's a Frankenstein's monster now. It's extended well beyond usefulness and is run by idiots.