How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
SunsetZed said:
Any links to previous projections versus reality so that we can see if they end to be accurate or it's finger in the air stuff?
Also I don't agree on the dropping in the chart point. We could drop without losing a penny if India over performed versus the projection by $42.4bn. Also the currency fluctuation versus the $USD plays a huge part here, it's one of the reasons I suspect the projections in the past have not been that accurate as it's ridiculously difficult to predict this with any degree of accuracy due to the huge number of variables in play.
It's not about dropping because of Indian growth, but because our GDP declines. Also I don't agree on the dropping in the chart point. We could drop without losing a penny if India over performed versus the projection by $42.4bn. Also the currency fluctuation versus the $USD plays a huge part here, it's one of the reasons I suspect the projections in the past have not been that accurate as it's ridiculously difficult to predict this with any degree of accuracy due to the huge number of variables in play.
The point about projections is a red herring; I could just as easily have used historic 2016 figures.
There's no point trying to argue around this. The simple fact is that a decline in our GDP makes us all poorer and the drop in relative GDP that hyphen says he'd accept would make us a lot poorer.
sidicks said:
Breadvan72 said:
It is impossible to know for sure what motivated each voter to vote leave or remain. Polling analyses by Ashcroft and others suggest that immigration was a big factor for some and not for others. For some it may have been the biggest or even the only factor.
Ashcroft's survey found immigration to be the second most important reason for voting leave.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-unite...
Indeed, but that’s entirely different from suggesting that Brexiteers wanted to stop immigration etc.Ashcroft's survey found immigration to be the second most important reason for voting leave.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-unite...
sidicks said:
Indeed, but that’s entirely different from suggesting that Brexiteers wanted to stop immigration etc.
The other two big reasons in that poll are thinly veiled moans about immigration, too.Oh, seriously? Are you seriously going to say that the Brexiteer obsession with immigration amounts to a desire for MORE of it? That's rank dishonesty.
Mrr T said:
sidicks said:
///ajd said:
I'd like you to explain it, with specifics as to how a move to clearing to the EU would affect various activities, e.g. pensions, so we can all understand what it might mean, and what mitigation maybe appropriate.
Put a new thread in the Finance forum then.The facts are the clearing of euro derivatives is not a big part of the UK FS sector, and it will end up in the EU after Brexit. This is perfectly logical the BOE would be very unhappy if a majority of GBP derivatives being cleared in a different jurisdiction.
Tryke3 said:
spaximus said:
As it gets nearer the interests of individual countries will come into play. Spain this weekend has said that those living in Spain who are British can stay unhindered as they contribute a huge amount to the economy of Spain.
Likewise how much the British holiday maker brings to their economy as well is not something they want reduced at all.
Especially if Spain does start to go a bit Pete Tong and the income from Catalonia stops as well, they will need us even more if income from the EU budget is not maintained, something the nett contributors are saying they do not want to increase their payments to sustain.
German business is not happy if the UK has no trade deal as well so a long way to go and this is just politicians trying to undermine the UK position for their own ends. If they could overturn the decision by stalling until a change of government they would.
What i heard myself is that everyone agrees that the EU concept is beyond and above any business interests, if you heard something else is mostly because you have selective hearingLikewise how much the British holiday maker brings to their economy as well is not something they want reduced at all.
Especially if Spain does start to go a bit Pete Tong and the income from Catalonia stops as well, they will need us even more if income from the EU budget is not maintained, something the nett contributors are saying they do not want to increase their payments to sustain.
German business is not happy if the UK has no trade deal as well so a long way to go and this is just politicians trying to undermine the UK position for their own ends. If they could overturn the decision by stalling until a change of government they would.
There is no way Spain will allow its citizens to be under a different set of rules
What the negotiations are trying to do is come up with an EU wide agreement as part of the exit agreement to make the transition simpler, if they don't do that then each country in the EU can do whatever they want anyway, for Spain that means still allowing UK citizens to live there and spend their retirement, plus have reciprocal health care.
It's just a good example of how the EU isn't often needed to be involved at all, citizens rights could be handled by each individual country with no input from these negotiations at all.
It makes the first stage negotiations look more important than they really are, to include citizens rights, as most people don't realise that as far as the UK dealing with the EU is concerned, its a bulls
t negotiation area, it can be handled outside any EU negotiation with no real impact on anyone. The reality is countries that benefit from UK citizens having access to their work and retirement residency status, are going to keep that open, with or without any EU agreement.It's far more important for the EU to have citizens rights covered in this negotiation than it is for the UK, for simple political reasons. It makes them appear to be more required than they really are. Spain just happens to be the first to go on record to say, irrespective of the outcome, UK citizens will be welcome in Spain.
ORD said:
The other two big reasons in that poll are thinly veiled moans about immigration, too.
Oh, seriously? Are you seriously going to say that the Brexiteer obsession with immigration amounts to a desire for MORE of it? That's rank dishonesty.
When will you realise that your generalisations are stupid?Oh, seriously? Are you seriously going to say that the Brexiteer obsession with immigration amounts to a desire for MORE of it? That's rank dishonesty.
Seeing as a couple of posts have mentioned polls recently, here are a couple of snapshot glimpses.
First is from Populus, second Opinium via Ashcroft.
Ashcroft regarding the second one makes the point he has been making all along, that "Brexit decision must be, and can only be, viewed as a long term decision."
First is from Populus, second Opinium via Ashcroft.
Ashcroft regarding the second one makes the point he has been making all along, that "Brexit decision must be, and can only be, viewed as a long term decision."
FiF said:
Seeing as a couple of posts have mentioned polls recently, here are a couple of snapshot glimpses.
First is from Populus, second Opinium via Ashcroft.
Ashcroft regarding the second one makes the point he has been making all along, that "Brexit decision must be, and can only be, viewed as a long term decision."
If the first poll is accurate regarding public attitudes then it appears there is a wide divergence between the public and most of the media.First is from Populus, second Opinium via Ashcroft.
Ashcroft regarding the second one makes the point he has been making all along, that "Brexit decision must be, and can only be, viewed as a long term decision."
The first poll doesn't really have enough options. Where is the option for agree a transition deal of two years now?, and negotiate up until the date of entering into that agreement as to what comes next?.
Anyway the media narrative of events so far is. The negotiations aren't going anywhere, it is clearly too difficult, call the whole thing off. Whereas for a sizeable chunk of the public they also believe the negotiations aren't going anywhere and so just want to walk away without a deal.
Personally I think that a deal is preferable but may not be available. The much vaunted "new mood" seems merely that the EU has agreed to get ready to possibly start talking amongst themselves about what they want from a deal. One might have hoped in the 15 months since the referendum result that they might have done this already....
A summary of the Opinium poll is here -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/21/b...
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/21/b...
Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 23 October 13:40
FiF said:
Seeing as a couple of posts have mentioned polls recently, here are a couple of snapshot glimpses.
First is from Populus, second Opinium via Ashcroft.
Ashcroft regarding the second one makes the point he has been making all along, that "Brexit decision must be, and can only be, viewed as a long term decision."
These polls really don’t mean a lot unless the polled group has some informed basis upon which to address the question. Otherwise you might as well ask them whether they think the weather will be good or bad next summer. The most honest set of responders were the ones who answered “don’t know”, I suspect. First is from Populus, second Opinium via Ashcroft.
Ashcroft regarding the second one makes the point he has been making all along, that "Brexit decision must be, and can only be, viewed as a long term decision."
Greg66 said:
These polls really don’t mean a lot unless the polled group has some informed basis upon which to address the question. Otherwise you might as well ask them whether they think the weather will be good or bad next summer. The most honest set of responders were the ones who answered “don’t know”, I suspect.
Crikey! Sounds just like an election or a referendum!Breadvan72 said:
Greg66 said:
These polls really don’t mean a lot unless the polled group has some informed basis upon which to address the question. Otherwise you might as well ask them whether they think the weather will be good or bad next summer. The most honest set of responders were the ones who answered “don’t know”, I suspect.
Crikey! Sounds just like an election or a referendum!By the way, that crack is not a jibe against democracy, as I am big up for that. It is a jibe about people being ignorant about the issues that they vote on, but that problem dates back at least to the fifth century BC (ask a bunch of Athenians if they think it would be cool to invade Sicily. Whoops).
Many of the electorate had, I suspect, little or no idea what they might be getting when they voted in the Eurovote.
Many of the electorate had, I suspect, little or no idea what they might be getting when they voted in the Eurovote.
Meanwhile, Brexit is reported on abroad.
https://dailytimes.com.pk/128932/brexit-pave-way-i...
There are definitely some Brexiteers here who will be getting behind this - they don't mind immigration and are excited about dealing with the ROW.
https://dailytimes.com.pk/128932/brexit-pave-way-i...
There are definitely some Brexiteers here who will be getting behind this - they don't mind immigration and are excited about dealing with the ROW.
Breadvan72 said:
By the way, that crack is not a jibe against democracy, as I am big up for that. It is a jibe about people being ignorant about the issues that they vote on, but that problem dates back at least to the fifth century BC (ask a bunch of Athenians if they think it would be cool to invade Sicily. Whoops).
Quite. Brexit and Scottish independence to take two of the recent examples are incredibly complex multi faceted and multi layered questions. The public campaigns before each didn’t scratch the surface of those complexities, preferring understandably to target basic emotive responses. SunsetZed said:
...
Also I don't agree on the dropping in the chart point. We could drop without losing a penny if India over performed versus the projection by $42.4bn...
France has already slid down the chart on that prediction....Also I don't agree on the dropping in the chart point. We could drop without losing a penny if India over performed versus the projection by $42.4bn...
In theory it's inevitable that we'll drop down the league table as we're nowhere near as populous as some countries we are currently above....But hey ho. A chart's a chart
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff