How do we think EU negotiations will go?
Discussion
hyphen said:
Which is what I am thinking of you to be honest.
Fair enough to say "we will all get poorer" but your posts have been all about 'the sky falling down' and any one who asks exactly what this entails gets an "I'm considerable clever than you" type answer.
What is the point?
The point is that the scenario you posit would be very significant and one we should be concerned about.Fair enough to say "we will all get poorer" but your posts have been all about 'the sky falling down' and any one who asks exactly what this entails gets an "I'm considerable clever than you" type answer.
What is the point?
If the scenario was a realistic one. Which it isn’t.
Dr Jekyll said:
No, it's the remainers who say we'll be worse off than otherwise. Then stretch it to saying we'll be worse off than at present or even than Brazil is at present, even though even their most pessimistic economists say no such thing.
It is the remainers who characterise missing out on growth as a depression, which it clearly isn't. Depression is the economy shrinking.
Try reading the exchange that started this. hyphen was talking about GDP decreases and it is also obvious from his subsequent posts:It is the remainers who characterise missing out on growth as a depression, which it clearly isn't. Depression is the economy shrinking.
hyphen said:
What would be your strategy to achieve the best possible agreement with the EU?
Zod said:
Starting from a position based on realism would be good:
1. We are not the stronger party here. Our exports to the EU are 7.5% of GDP. Their exports to us are 2.5% of GDP. Their economy is six times bigger;
2. We need a deal. They do not. It will be painful and inconvenient for them if there is no deal. For us it risks being catastrophic.
In every negotiation I have been involved in, perception of relative negotiating strength and relative need to conclude a deal have been key initial strategy points before engagement.
1. We are not the stronger party here. Our exports to the EU are 7.5% of GDP. Their exports to us are 2.5% of GDP. Their economy is six times bigger;
2. We need a deal. They do not. It will be painful and inconvenient for them if there is no deal. For us it risks being catastrophic.
In every negotiation I have been involved in, perception of relative negotiating strength and relative need to conclude a deal have been key initial strategy points before engagement.
hyphen said:
What would you define as catastrophic?
As the 5th largest economy, say we drop to 6 or 7 or 8. Wouldn't the general effect of that just to be less eating out/holidays/new cars as opposed to starving children.
As the 5th largest economy, say we drop to 6 or 7 or 8. Wouldn't the general effect of that just to be less eating out/holidays/new cars as opposed to starving children.
hyphen said:
Zod said:
You are making a fool of yourself here.
Which is what I am thinking of you to be honest. Fair enough to say "we will all get poorer" but your posts have been all about 'the sky falling down' and any one who asks exactly what this entails gets an "I'm considerable clever than you" type answer.
What is the point?
Sway said:
The UK's percentage of USD clearing may be fairly small, however the overall percentage cleared outside the US is huge.
The Euro has been working to become a global reserve currency in competition with the dollar. In order to do so, it must permit clearing outside it's jurisdiction. Restricting it within the EU alone is unprecedented - which you failed to comment on...
I am sure the figures are huge but I will bet the total of USD derivatives cleared out side the US is a small percentage of the total market.The Euro has been working to become a global reserve currency in competition with the dollar. In order to do so, it must permit clearing outside it's jurisdiction. Restricting it within the EU alone is unprecedented - which you failed to comment on...
LTCM showed the central banks the risks of a derivative failure.
I am sure the ECB will not ban clearing outside the Eurozone just ensure a non euro CCP failure would not have a major effect on liquidity.
hyphen said:
Now I appreciate you are some city hot shot that newspapers queue up for hours to get a quote from 
but bear with me.
Let us agree that the very worse case if everything goes horribly wrong the the position is 8th, and we lose $355.8bn (£11 or so a day per person).
I ask again the same question, what will be the real effect of this on the average person seeing as we will be spreading Brazil's GDP over 3 times less a population and a rough guess of 6 times smaller a physical area?
I am asking in real terms what this 'catastrophe' will mean to the average person - will the Average Family be starving on the streets, will they be taking 1 holiday a year instead of the 3 they are accustomed to, will they be buying a mobile phone every 3 years as they do now and so on.
but bear with me.Let us agree that the very worse case if everything goes horribly wrong the the position is 8th, and we lose $355.8bn (£11 or so a day per person).
I ask again the same question, what will be the real effect of this on the average person seeing as we will be spreading Brazil's GDP over 3 times less a population and a rough guess of 6 times smaller a physical area?
I am asking in real terms what this 'catastrophe' will mean to the average person - will the Average Family be starving on the streets, will they be taking 1 holiday a year instead of the 3 they are accustomed to, will they be buying a mobile phone every 3 years as they do now and so on.
Edited by hyphen on Monday 23 October 14:36
Dr Jekyll said:
hyphen said:
Now I appreciate you are some city hot shot that newspapers queue up for hours to get a quote from but bear with me.
Let us agree that the very worse case if everything goes horribly wrong the the position is 8th, and we lose $355.8bn (£11 or so a day per person).
I ask again the same question, what will be the real effect of this on the average person seeing as we will be spreading Brazil's GDP over 3 times less a population and a rough guess of 6 times smaller a physical area?
I am asking in real terms what this 'catastrophe' will mean to the average person - will the Average Family be starving on the streets, will they be taking 1 holiday a year instead of the 3 they are accustomed to, will they be buying a mobile phone every 3 years as they do now and so on.
but bear with me.Let us agree that the very worse case if everything goes horribly wrong the the position is 8th, and we lose $355.8bn (£11 or so a day per person).
I ask again the same question, what will be the real effect of this on the average person seeing as we will be spreading Brazil's GDP over 3 times less a population and a rough guess of 6 times smaller a physical area?
I am asking in real terms what this 'catastrophe' will mean to the average person - will the Average Family be starving on the streets, will they be taking 1 holiday a year instead of the 3 they are accustomed to, will they be buying a mobile phone every 3 years as they do now and so on.
Edited by hyphen on Monday 23 October 14:36
Mrr T said:
Sway said:
The UK's percentage of USD clearing may be fairly small, however the overall percentage cleared outside the US is huge.
The Euro has been working to become a global reserve currency in competition with the dollar. In order to do so, it must permit clearing outside it's jurisdiction. Restricting it within the EU alone is unprecedented - which you failed to comment on...
I am sure the figures are huge but I will bet the total of USD derivatives cleared out side the US is a small percentage of the total market.The Euro has been working to become a global reserve currency in competition with the dollar. In order to do so, it must permit clearing outside it's jurisdiction. Restricting it within the EU alone is unprecedented - which you failed to comment on...
LTCM showed the central banks the risks of a derivative failure.
I am sure the ECB will not ban clearing outside the Eurozone just ensure a non euro CCP failure would not have a major effect on liquidity.
So very different from preventing euro clearing to be conducted outside the EU, and back to pure competition - which London has already comprehensively won.
Funkycoldribena said:
Id say a few are.
Its getting embarrassing seeing so many scenarios being played out in desperation.
He seems to think he is very important for some reason, but just appears to be a paper pusher in IPO's Its getting embarrassing seeing so many scenarios being played out in desperation.
He boasts about giving quotes to paper? I built a system recently for a Hedge fund, the bloke who founded it does quotes for papers too. In another league to the likes of Zod, and he is down to earth...
hyphen said:
He seems to think he is very important for some reason, but just appears to be a paper pusher in IPO's
He boasts about giving quotes to paper? I built a system recently for a Hedge fund, the bloke who founded it does quotes for papers too. In another league to the likes of Zod, and he is down to earth...
He's been like it for years,massively over inflated self ego.He boasts about giving quotes to paper? I built a system recently for a Hedge fund, the bloke who founded it does quotes for papers too. In another league to the likes of Zod, and he is down to earth...
Funkycoldribena said:
hyphen said:
He seems to think he is very important for some reason, but just appears to be a paper pusher in IPO's
He boasts about giving quotes to paper? I built a system recently for a Hedge fund, the bloke who founded it does quotes for papers too. In another league to the likes of Zod, and he is down to earth...
He's been like it for years,massively over inflated self ego.He boasts about giving quotes to paper? I built a system recently for a Hedge fund, the bloke who founded it does quotes for papers too. In another league to the likes of Zod, and he is down to earth...
Maybe it wasn't him, but if it was - perhaps this Brexit thing is scuppering his political ambitions?
EDIT: he says it isn't him, hope he gets over his little breakdown regardless.
Edited by hyphen on Monday 23 October 16:59
Funkycoldribena said:
hyphen said:
He seems to think he is very important for some reason, but just appears to be a paper pusher in IPO's
He boasts about giving quotes to paper? I built a system recently for a Hedge fund, the bloke who founded it does quotes for papers too. In another league to the likes of Zod, and he is down to earth...
He's been like it for years,massively over inflated self ego.He boasts about giving quotes to paper? I built a system recently for a Hedge fund, the bloke who founded it does quotes for papers too. In another league to the likes of Zod, and he is down to earth...
Oh, wait...
Have to say, this thread's progress and outcome to date pretty accurately mirror the real thing in the real world.
The only reason I voted Remain rather than Brexit was because I thought it would be less hassle to remain and the existing membership problems would be easier to resolve than the ones Brexit would pose.
Haven't really changed from that position. The negotiations don't appear to be making much progress. Uncertainty and division are definitely in the air which is at best not good.
The only reason I voted Remain rather than Brexit was because I thought it would be less hassle to remain and the existing membership problems would be easier to resolve than the ones Brexit would pose.
Haven't really changed from that position. The negotiations don't appear to be making much progress. Uncertainty and division are definitely in the air which is at best not good.
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