Negotiators

[cymtriks]

A lot will depend on what sort of deal we, and the EU, want to make.

Several options described here.

[MrADC]

10% of our GDP consists of Financial Services with Services making up 79% of our Economy - we have just about the lowest percentage of manufacturing of any EU nation. The financial sector is critically vulnerable to relocation within the EU and also to NYC. The rest of the service economy will be desperately disadvantaged if we have to go onto WTO two years after Article 50. Only 3% of the EU's GDP is reliant on the UK buying stuff and you're all dreaming if you think your fellow countrymen will stop buying German cars just because they're more expensive...unless we exclusively buy Japanese or JLR - I doubt the Germans will notice a dip, even with tariffs.

Article 50 will need to be triggered soon as the 52% (and half the Tory party) will be getting restless for Brexit to start - so real pressure from behind the lines to trigger and then a 24month shotgun wedding.

Does anyone seriously think any of that sounds like a strong negotiations position? Entering a 24 month time limited negotiation period with a predetermined consequence if no deal (WTO Standard) is like writing a classified add that says "must sell tonight" - it is a spectacularly weak position. Frankfurt and Amsterdam are coveting the golden goose in The City, the Eastern fringes are coveting what remains of our manufacturing sector and Dublin is already mobilising to poach any US, Japanese or Chinese corporate HQ that's not already in Dublin.

What Brexit will get us is a much worse deal than we have now...no matter who does the negotiating because with Maggie's rebate and being out of the Euro we currently have the best deal in the EU. What we'll get is access to the single market (with inevitable free movement strings - but a UKIP "figleaf" to calm the zealots) - we'll still have to adhere to all the rules but once the 24mths post Article 50 is up we can never ever shape EU policy again. All of this was known prior to the vote and is known now. Any politician saying we have any strength in bargaining power is an idiot.

We'll trigger Article 50 in September (as late as the new Tory leader dares leave it) we'll get a Norway deal in 24 months, we'll be much worse off as the lucrative bits of The City inevitably leave and Manufacturing decline accelerates. We'll end up, in 5 years time with a slightly smaller GDP than we have now and all the social tensions displayed over the last week exacerbated by another 5 years of Government vengeance on the working poor.

But our global reputation for stability and sense will have been evicerated, our national brand (the much vaunted " soft power") permanently tarnished and basically all for nothing.

Britain has a very poor track record in negotiations of this type...in fact the last national crisis, European negotiations conducted under duress produced "...a piece of paper" and that didn't work out in our national interest!

[AC43]

MrADC said:

Does anyone seriously think any of that sounds like a strong negotiations position?

No. The whole pantomime seriously fks me off. And has already made all of us look like total tts.

FFS

[s2art]

MrADC said:

We'll trigger Article 50 in September (as late as the new Tory leader dares leave it) we'll get a Norway deal in 24 months, we'll be much worse off as the lucrative bits of The City inevitably leave and Manufacturing decline accelerates. We'll end up, in 5 years time with a slightly smaller GDP than we have now and all the social tensions displayed over the last week exacerbated by another 5 years of Government vengeance on the working poor.

With a Norway style deal, why would anything change? Why would the lucrative bits of the city leave? A Norway deal includes membership of the EEA.

[jjlynn27]

AC43 said:

MrADC said:

Does anyone seriously think any of that sounds like a strong negotiations position?

No. The whole pantomime seriously fks me off. And has already made all of us look like total tts.

FFS

Apparently we are in amazing negotiating position. Because.

[MrADC]

s2art said:

MrADC said:

We'll trigger Article 50 in September (as late as the new Tory leader dares leave it) we'll get a Norway deal in 24 months, we'll be much worse off as the lucrative bits of The City inevitably leave and Manufacturing decline accelerates. We'll end up, in 5 years time with a slightly smaller GDP than we have now and all the social tensions displayed over the last week exacerbated by another 5 years of Government vengeance on the working poor.

With a Norway style deal, why would anything change? Why would the lucrative bits of the city leave? A Norway deal includes membership of the EEA.

Because two years of uncertainty - which may lead to a decade of uncertainty means that the flight has already started. In that respect; the image of certainty and continuity, the damage is already done and can't be undone.

[powerstroke]

MrADC said:

s2art said:

MrADC said:

We'll trigger Article 50 in September (as late as the new Tory leader dares leave it) we'll get a Norway deal in 24 months, we'll be much worse off as the lucrative bits of The City inevitably leave and Manufacturing decline accelerates. We'll end up, in 5 years time with a slightly smaller GDP than we have now and all the social tensions displayed over the last week exacerbated by another 5 years of Government vengeance on the working poor.

With a Norway style deal, why would anything change? Why would the lucrative bits of the city leave? A Norway deal includes membership of the EEA.

Because two years of uncertainty - which may lead to a decade of uncertainty means that the flight has already started. In that respect; the image of certainty and continuity, the damage is already done and can't be undone.

Sadly we have sold most of the family silver , then we have allowed the masters of the universe types to ride roughshod over everything else, crony capitalists and spivs have milked whats left for short term gain
while Germany respected enginering we respected some s in pinstiripe suits that could hit buttons quickly,
we once were world leaders in tech then the accountants came ...... if this brexit fks the city then good they have had a really good run , maybe we can get back to making things again so everyone beninfits not just the greedy few...

Edited by powerstroke on Sunday 3rd July 09:08

[s2art]

MrADC said:

s2art said:

MrADC said:

We'll trigger Article 50 in September (as late as the new Tory leader dares leave it) we'll get a Norway deal in 24 months, we'll be much worse off as the lucrative bits of The City inevitably leave and Manufacturing decline accelerates. We'll end up, in 5 years time with a slightly smaller GDP than we have now and all the social tensions displayed over the last week exacerbated by another 5 years of Government vengeance on the working poor.

With a Norway style deal, why would anything change? Why would the lucrative bits of the city leave? A Norway deal includes membership of the EEA.

Because two years of uncertainty - which may lead to a decade of uncertainty means that the flight has already started. In that respect; the image of certainty and continuity, the damage is already done and can't be undone.

Once the agreement is reached (and if its a Norway style deal it shouldnt take 5 minutes) then certainty is restored. Why do you think it cant be undone?

[Jockman]

MrADC said:

10% of our GDP consists of Financial Services with Services making up 79% of our Economy - we have just about the lowest percentage of manufacturing of any EU nation. The financial sector is critically vulnerable to relocation within the EU and also to NYC. The rest of the service economy will be desperately disadvantaged if we have to go onto WTO two years after Article 50. Only 3% of the EU's GDP is reliant on the UK buying stuff and you're all dreaming if you think your fellow countrymen will stop buying German cars just because they're more expensive...unless we exclusively buy Japanese or JLR - I doubt the Germans will notice a dip, even with tariffs.

Article 50 will need to be triggered soon as the 52% (and half the Tory party) will be getting restless for Brexit to start - so real pressure from behind the lines to trigger and then a 24month shotgun wedding.

Does anyone seriously think any of that sounds like a strong negotiations position? Entering a 24 month time limited negotiation period with a predetermined consequence if no deal (WTO Standard) is like writing a classified add that says "must sell tonight" - it is a spectacularly weak position. Frankfurt and Amsterdam are coveting the golden goose in The City, the Eastern fringes are coveting what remains of our manufacturing sector and Dublin is already mobilising to poach any US, Japanese or Chinese corporate HQ that's not already in Dublin.

What Brexit will get us is a much worse deal than we have now...no matter who does the negotiating because with Maggie's rebate and being out of the Euro we currently have the best deal in the EU. What we'll get is access to the single market (with inevitable free movement strings - but a UKIP "figleaf" to calm the zealots) - we'll still have to adhere to all the rules but once the 24mths post Article 50 is up we can never ever shape EU policy again. All of this was known prior to the vote and is known now. Any politician saying we have any strength in bargaining power is an idiot.

We'll trigger Article 50 in September (as late as the new Tory leader dares leave it) we'll get a Norway deal in 24 months, we'll be much worse off as the lucrative bits of The City inevitably leave and Manufacturing decline accelerates. We'll end up, in 5 years time with a slightly smaller GDP than we have now and all the social tensions displayed over the last week exacerbated by another 5 years of Government vengeance on the working poor.

But our global reputation for stability and sense will have been evicerated, our national brand (the much vaunted " soft power") permanently tarnished and basically all for nothing.

Britain has a very poor track record in negotiations of this type...in fact the last national crisis, European negotiations conducted under duress produced "...a piece of paper" and that didn't work out in our national interest!

Can you update me on provisions for withdrawal of article 50 once it has been served please.

[MrADC]

Jockman said:

Can you update me on provisions for withdrawal of article 50 once it has been served please.

I personally would very much doubt Article 50 will ever be invoked...a classic political fudge is in the offing that will attempt to minimise the harm. I suspect many EU leaders are expecting the same but surveying the news from Germany and Holland over the past few days it seems they are beginning to get comfortable with the possibility and are starting to look at radical EU reforms that would have been very problematic with a British veto.

If I'm wrong and Theresa May loses, Gove wins and invokes A50 - expect EU attitudes to very quickly harden and do also expect for them to start parallel negotiations with Scotland as soon as A50 is invoked.

So to answer your question: once A50 is invoked it'll likely take another referendum and/or a general election to attempt withdrawal...it's totally unchartered legal territories (with no legal precedent) so believe no one who says with authority what the process is!

[Jockman]

MrADC said:

Jockman said:

Can you update me on provisions for withdrawal of article 50 once it has been served please.

I personally would very much doubt Article 50 will ever be invoked...a classic political fudge is in the offing that will attempt to minimise the harm. I suspect many EU leaders are expecting the same but surveying the news from Germany and Holland over the past few days it seems they are beginning to get comfortable with the possibility and are starting to look at radical EU reforms that would have been very problematic with a British veto.

If I'm wrong and Theresa May loses, Gove wins and invokes A50 - expect EU attitudes to very quickly harden and do also expect for them to start parallel negotiations with Scotland as soon as A50 is invoked.

So to answer your question: once A50 is invoked it'll likely take another referendum and/or a general election to attempt withdrawal...it's totally unchartered legal territories (with no legal precedent) so believe no one who says with authority what the process is!

Do you feel there was deliberate intent by those drawing up the Lisbon Treaty to ensure that there are no provisions for this?

In effect, once a country serves A50 there is nothing to say it cannot be withdrawn at any stage in the 2 year window.

Any attempt by European Countries to undertake radical reform in the interim surely plays into the hands of the Leave vote? Negotiations with Scotland again play into the hands of the Leave vote. If more than just idle gossip, why would they do that?

[jjlynn27]

s2art said:

Once the agreement is reached (and if its a Norway style deal it shouldnt take 5 minutes) then certainty is restored. Why do you think it cant be undone?

Not sure what 'shouldn't take 5 minutes' adds to the debate, you were already shown what Norway PM says on the matter. Even if she changes her opinion to 'Yea, we really want UK to come to EFTA, regardless of that diluting our influence', why on earth would you think that it'll take 5 minutes? Your posts are getting more bizarre.

[anonymous-user]

wc98 said:

looks like the americans intend to get the negotiations going on their own . back of the queue ,lmfao.
https://heatst.com/uk/us-uk-trade-bill-in-congress...
Despite claims that the US would banish Britain to the “back of the queue” if it dared to leave the European Union, Congress is already considering measures to boost trade with the UK.

A bill to lock down current trading arrangements, and fire the starting gun on a bilateral deal, was introduced to the US Senate yesterday.

The United Kingdom Trade Continuity Act mandates the US to keep trading on exactly the same terms after Britain leaves the EU.

Interesting.

Would imagine the US Defence industry is driving that. Not sure what specifically for, but I can't think of any other US interest that could move Congress that fast on those terms.

[wc98]

Greg66 said:

Interesting.

Would imagine the US Defence industry is driving that. Not sure what specifically for, but I can't think of any other US interest that could move Congress that fast on those terms.

i would have to agree , not like the americans to take some time to work out how to exploit a situation to their benefit before making a move.

[loafer123]

Why doesn't Tony Blair just fk off.

That is all.

[jjlynn27]

loafer123 said:

Basically, they are saying that the US and UK can trade on the same terms as now, after we leave the EU.

What they haven't spotted is that those terms are simply WTO MFN terms, given there is no FTA between the EU and US, but it's still a nice gesture of support.

The urge to do a quick FTA between the US and UK as well is nice, too.

Was about to reply to wc98's post but this sums it up really. So still WTO rules apply, not sure how would that boost economy.
It is nice gesture, if nothing else then to improve sentiment.

For quick FTA i hope we'll have some spare negotiators to look into that.

[jjlynn27]

loafer123 said:

Why doesn't Tony Blair just fk off.

That is all.

If only. Hateful creature.

[Jockman]

loafer123 said:

Why doesn't Tony Blair just fk off.

That is all.

[powerstroke]

jjlynn27 said:

loafer123 said:

Why doesn't Tony Blair just fk off.

That is all.

If only. Hateful creature.

hopefully chillcott will shut him up...

[mph1977]

Hereward said:

Germany currently sells over 800,000 cars a year to the UK. I think we will be in a fairly strong position at the negotiating table.

Even with tarriffs , the arseperational will still wish to purchase them ...