Discussion
jsf said:
The picture is far worse than this. If you really want to understand the likely scenario about to unfold in the Eurozone, spend an hour and half and watch this talk by some serious people who understand the situation. The first speaker is pretty dry, the second less so but a bit airy fairy, the 3rd and 4th and the general discussion in the room post them should have you s
tting bricks. This was 2 weeks before the French election. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFuVatBUsEg
If Merkel wins, the Eurozone is going to crash hard, because she wont compromise with the French to build a more sensible currency that works for the rest of the Eurozone.
Interesting looking video, I will watch it later. The Eurozone is a basket case that if left to continue will in my opinion crash the global financial system. Ultimately I believe the only solution is a more tightly integrated eurozone with transfers from Germanys target2 balance to the deficit countries, but that would be suicide for any German politician signing it off. That's the positive outcome option....tting bricks. This was 2 weeks before the French election. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFuVatBUsEgIf Merkel wins, the Eurozone is going to crash hard, because she wont compromise with the French to build a more sensible currency that works for the rest of the Eurozone.
egomeister said:
jsf said:
The picture is far worse than this. If you really want to understand the likely scenario about to unfold in the Eurozone, spend an hour and half and watch this talk by some serious people who understand the situation. The first speaker is pretty dry, the second less so but a bit airy fairy, the 3rd and 4th and the general discussion in the room post them should have you stting bricks. This was 2 weeks before the French election. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFuVatBUsEg
If Merkel wins, the Eurozone is going to crash hard, because she wont compromise with the French to build a more sensible currency that works for the rest of the Eurozone.
Interesting looking video, I will watch it later. The Eurozone is a basket case that if left to continue will in my opinion crash the global financial system. Ultimately I believe the only solution is a more tightly integrated eurozone with transfers from Germanys target2 balance to the deficit countries, but that would be suicide for any German politician signing it off. That's the positive outcome option....tting bricks. This was 2 weeks before the French election. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFuVatBUsEgIf Merkel wins, the Eurozone is going to crash hard, because she wont compromise with the French to build a more sensible currency that works for the rest of the Eurozone.
The interesting part of the presentation for me was the two Brits talking about what to do about it.
I can't help but think there is an opportunity for us, if we were minded to prepare for it.
egomeister said:
Sway said:
I can't help but think there is an opportunity for us, if we were minded to prepare for it.
I'm worried that it could rock us very hard, given how large the financial sector is in the UKThe only opportunity we have, I feel based on what I've been reading and listening too, is if someone in a place of influence with balls actually says the game is up and accepts a wholesale restructuring of the Eurozone has to happen and actually makes that happen in a way that is politically managed.
Having Merkel returned wont allow that, she is too focused on Germany to give a fook about the big picture longer term. If Schultz got in and managed to work with Macron, it would be bloody in Germany and France politically, but they may just stand a chance of saving the whole thing longer term, if they have the guts to be crucified politically.
My gut feeling is they just don't have the balls to manage this, what will happen is they will stick their head in the sand and it will take something like Italy voting in a coalition that calls for a referendum which blows the whole thing up.
This is where having clowns like Tusk and Junker in charge is such a disaster for the EU, these posts should be held by serious people who can lead when necessary, instead we have pissheads and failed politicians.
Assuming Merkel wins, the only thing that may change the situation from the above, is if we see a sudden global crisis such as a war in China/Japan/Korea, then all bets are off as to what happens.
Whatever happens this isn't going to end well, which is depressing as it need not have been this way, had serious people been in charge in the EU rather than a bunch of failures, we could have seen Europe in a very different place.
I've been banging on about Target2 and the dangers for some time but usually get blank stares or glazed looks from people I've spoken to. I liken it to Mr Creosote in The Life of Brian only it's not him eating food but Germany sucking up Euros at an alarming rate with it's Target2 balances and sooner or later it's gonna blow.
jsf said:
Unless the Eurozone reforms, i.e. a planned for split occurs, then the whole world economy is screwed because when it does fall apart, people will panic and batten down the hatches.
The only opportunity we have, I feel based on what I've been reading and listening too, is if someone in a place of influence with balls actually says the game is up and accepts a wholesale restructuring of the Eurozone has to happen and actually makes that happen in a way that is politically managed.
Having Merkel returned wont allow that, she is too focused on Germany to give a fook about the big picture longer term. If Schultz got in and managed to work with Macron, it would be bloody in Germany and France politically, but they may just stand a chance of saving the whole thing longer term, if they have the guts to be crucified politically.
My gut feeling is they just don't have the balls to manage this, what will happen is they will stick their head in the sand and it will take something like Italy voting in a coalition that calls for a referendum which blows the whole thing up.
This is where having clowns like Tusk and Junker in charge is such a disaster for the EU, these posts should be held by serious people who can lead when necessary, instead we have pissheads and failed politicians.
Assuming Merkel wins, the only thing that may change the situation from the above, is if we see a sudden global crisis such as a war in China/Japan/Korea, then all bets are off as to what happens.
Whatever happens this isn't going to end well, which is depressing as it need not have been this way, had serious people been in charge in the EU rather than a bunch of failures, we could have seen Europe in a very different place.
I'm just reading the new Yanis Varoufakis book. It's scary to see how the decision making process works in the various organisations there. It's really reinforcing my belief that the EU and it's institutions are un-reformable.The only opportunity we have, I feel based on what I've been reading and listening too, is if someone in a place of influence with balls actually says the game is up and accepts a wholesale restructuring of the Eurozone has to happen and actually makes that happen in a way that is politically managed.
Having Merkel returned wont allow that, she is too focused on Germany to give a fook about the big picture longer term. If Schultz got in and managed to work with Macron, it would be bloody in Germany and France politically, but they may just stand a chance of saving the whole thing longer term, if they have the guts to be crucified politically.
My gut feeling is they just don't have the balls to manage this, what will happen is they will stick their head in the sand and it will take something like Italy voting in a coalition that calls for a referendum which blows the whole thing up.
This is where having clowns like Tusk and Junker in charge is such a disaster for the EU, these posts should be held by serious people who can lead when necessary, instead we have pissheads and failed politicians.
Assuming Merkel wins, the only thing that may change the situation from the above, is if we see a sudden global crisis such as a war in China/Japan/Korea, then all bets are off as to what happens.
Whatever happens this isn't going to end well, which is depressing as it need not have been this way, had serious people been in charge in the EU rather than a bunch of failures, we could have seen Europe in a very different place.
The Macron approach of deeper EU integration is possibly the only way they can head off disaster, albeit at the huge detriment of some of federated states...
Perik Omo said:
I've been banging on about Target2 and the dangers for some time but usually get blank stares or glazed looks from people I've spoken to. I liken it to Mr Creosote in The Life of Brian only it's not him eating food but Germany sucking up Euros at an alarming rate with it's Target2 balances and sooner or later it's gonna blow.
You mean in The Meaning of Life?!Perik Omo said:
I've been banging on about Target2 and the dangers for some time but usually get blank stares or glazed looks from people I've spoken to. I liken it to Mr Creosote in The Life of Brian only it's not him eating food but Germany sucking up Euros at an alarming rate with it's Target2 balances and sooner or later it's gonna blow.
Meaning Of Life/pedant mode
Well old Angela won a major vote yesterday, kicking Schultz in the nads in the process, so its looking less likely the Macron/Schultz scenario is going to happen. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/14/ange...
It also appears that Merkel has done what I expected and told Macron to do one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adbqg5ThKfI
It also appears that Merkel has done what I expected and told Macron to do one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adbqg5ThKfI
Countdown said:
because ofTEKNOPUG said:
The Germany economy is still plundering the poorer EU states, so why wouldn't she be popular at home?
This.Germany has been creaming it in form the rest of Europe for a long time. Their standards of living have increased because they have bullied their way to economic success in EU.
The whole point of the EU and Euro was to try and stabilise growth across the whole continent, not this.
RobDickinson said:
The whole point of the EU and Euro was to try and stabilise growth across the whole continent, not this.
Was it? Maybe that's the story you and the majority have swallowed. It was never about what is best for the average man.It will blow up in their faces, because the people in charge at the political level are idiots.
jsf said:
Was it? Maybe that's the story you and the majority have swallowed. It was never about what is best for the average man.
It will blow up in their faces, because the people in charge at the political level are idiots.
I wouldn't say they are idiots, but their priorities are different to average man. The Eurozone will always struggle without political and fiscal integration.It will blow up in their faces, because the people in charge at the political level are idiots.
The danger is that we live in a world where world finance is so interdependent that a significant failure anywhere would result in carnage. The Eurozone is an atom bomb, and the powers there are (politically) forced to muddle on because anything else would be mutually assured destruction.
The more I read about the Greek crisis, and the Cypriot / Irish / etc issue before it, the more I understand how morally rotten the situation is.
OtherBusiness said:
Sad reading and similar data can be found for most of Southern Europe.
To answer the OP
For a similar reason the US Dollar is the international currency as there are more Dollars knocking around than any other currency.
It's a little vague and abstract and others more versed in this may explain it better than I
jonah35 said:
Why is it that the Germans (especially Angela Merkel) think they are the head of Europe
The EU is principally an economic institution and by dint of the fact that Germany is the most populous EU nation, it holds the greatest number of Euros and therefore has more influence than, say, Italy.For a similar reason the US Dollar is the international currency as there are more Dollars knocking around than any other currency.
It's a little vague and abstract and others more versed in this may explain it better than I
StevieBee said:
To answer the OP
For a similar reason the US Dollar is the international currency as there are more Dollars knocking around than any other currency.
It's a little vague and abstract and others more versed in this may explain it better than I
I would have said it's more based on the strength and stability of their economies that give those countries those positions. jonah35 said:
Why is it that the Germans (especially Angela Merkel) think they are the head of Europe
The EU is principally an economic institution and by dint of the fact that Germany is the most populous EU nation, it holds the greatest number of Euros and therefore has more influence than, say, Italy.For a similar reason the US Dollar is the international currency as there are more Dollars knocking around than any other currency.
It's a little vague and abstract and others more versed in this may explain it better than I
REALIST123 said:
StevieBee said:
To answer the OP
For a similar reason the US Dollar is the international currency as there are more Dollars knocking around than any other currency.
It's a little vague and abstract and others more versed in this may explain it better than I
I would have said it's more based on the strength and stability of their economies that give those countries those positions. jonah35 said:
Why is it that the Germans (especially Angela Merkel) think they are the head of Europe
The EU is principally an economic institution and by dint of the fact that Germany is the most populous EU nation, it holds the greatest number of Euros and therefore has more influence than, say, Italy.For a similar reason the US Dollar is the international currency as there are more Dollars knocking around than any other currency.
It's a little vague and abstract and others more versed in this may explain it better than I
Go back not too many years, and the power base in the EEC/fledgling EU was broadly Germany/France/Belgium and Holland, in descending order but without too much asymmetry.
Then the Euro came about, followed by Target2. That's the point where Germany became the de facto head of the EU. Why? A very simular reason to the Fed's rise to dominance within the US during the great depression - because everyone else owes them money that could be demanded at any point, in large enough amounts to cripple the debtor.
Yes, there's a big whiff of MAD about that, but let's not forget it's not only the current loans that could be cancelled, but the ability to get more loans, which the debtors are now hooked on like the proverbial crack addict...
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