Automation - How far can it go?
Discussion
People say we will have a life of luxury while everything is automated, I can't see that happening. Technology was suppose to make our lives easier yet the reality is people now working longer hours than befor for instance; sit on train and use the work laptop, work all day then use the laptop on the commute home and once your home you have email at your finger tips via smartphones.
The Rise of the robot is a good book on the future of automation, even the creative jobs are under threat,there are programs that mine information and construct reports, as well as ones that write articles for magazines,
in Holland I think there is a factory that makes electric toothbrushs that on a night is not manned, as has been said on here the problem is the money, the rich get richer but there is a limit to the stuff they can buy and if everybody else gets poorer who is going to buy the goods?
As the song goes the times they are a changing, and it will be faster than people think or will like.
in Holland I think there is a factory that makes electric toothbrushs that on a night is not manned, as has been said on here the problem is the money, the rich get richer but there is a limit to the stuff they can buy and if everybody else gets poorer who is going to buy the goods?
As the song goes the times they are a changing, and it will be faster than people think or will like.
Robotic chef, 2015 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5wWL4pNeis
Robotic dairy farm - http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/6947...
Robotic barman - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBF7EE2xnN4
Scifi has covered this progression many times, but who knows where the future will go..
Robotic dairy farm - http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/dairy/6947...
Robotic barman - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBF7EE2xnN4
Scifi has covered this progression many times, but who knows where the future will go..
Tannedbaldhead said:
I see this happening all over. When I was a young surveyor there was a plethora of jobs at a surveying technician level. Guys (usually educated to HNC or HND Level) who carried out tasks such as ECPs condition reports, fire safety checks, asbestos management surveys, etc. All these guys wore a collar and tie, drove company cars, earned the equivalent in their day of £30k a year plus and looked forward to decent pension. Now the same guys wear poloshirts with the company name on their tit, DeWalt two-tone work trousers which are a mass of pockets and a pair of boots more suitable for invading Poland rather than a home visit. They drive vans rather than a company car, have minimum private pensions and earn nearer £20k per annum than the £30k my generation earned.
The banks, insurance and pension providers have done something very similar. Direct employees have been chopped then re-employed through companies who have won contract to carry out the backroom servicing and administration work. Again a well paid well looked after body of middle class white collar workers are finding themselves considerably worse off in salary and T&Cs.
This results in an erosion of perceived status where this type of job is going to feel much more working than middle class
One wonders when so many middle class white collar end up in this boat that there's noone left to buy white Beemer, Merc and Audi Sums and detached newbuild houses. Then things will get interesting.
"The ultimate reason for all real crises always remains the poverty and restricted consumption of the masses as opposed to the drive of capitalist production to develop the productive forces as though only the absolute consuming power of society constituted their limit. "The banks, insurance and pension providers have done something very similar. Direct employees have been chopped then re-employed through companies who have won contract to carry out the backroom servicing and administration work. Again a well paid well looked after body of middle class white collar workers are finding themselves considerably worse off in salary and T&Cs.
This results in an erosion of perceived status where this type of job is going to feel much more working than middle class
One wonders when so many middle class white collar end up in this boat that there's noone left to buy white Beemer, Merc and Audi Sums and detached newbuild houses. Then things will get interesting.
Marx.
Whatever his faults he was rather good at spotting the issues with capitalism.
Fittster said:
"The ultimate reason for all real crises always remains the poverty and restricted consumption of the masses as opposed to the drive of capitalist production to develop the productive forces as though only the absolute consuming power of society constituted their limit. "
Marx.
Whatever his faults he was rather good at spotting the issues with capitalism.
Pity he was utterly useless at suggesting anything better. Marx.
Whatever his faults he was rather good at spotting the issues with capitalism.
otolith said:
Fittster said:
"The ultimate reason for all real crises always remains the poverty and restricted consumption of the masses as opposed to the drive of capitalist production to develop the productive forces as though only the absolute consuming power of society constituted their limit. "
Marx.
Whatever his faults he was rather good at spotting the issues with capitalism.
Pity he was utterly useless at suggesting anything better. Marx.
Whatever his faults he was rather good at spotting the issues with capitalism.
We all need to be prepared to be dynamic and willing to change careers a number of times through our working lives. Not accepting that reality could mean you are thrown onto the s
t heap. Rovinghawk said:
I remember Tomorrow's World covering this subject in the 70's, suggesting that the crunch date would be the late 90s.
You've got a good memory.I don't think they factored in so many older people who don't want it will still be around. Self service tills? No thanks. I went to get some Mcmuck the other day and gave the touch screen a go, gave up halfway through and went to pay at the till.
227bhp said:
You've got a good memory.
I don't think they factored in so many older people who don't want it will still be around. Self service tills? No thanks. I went to get some Mcmuck the other day and gave the touch screen a go, gave up halfway through and went to pay at the till.
What you'll find it possibly one on the till a huge queue for that and empty self service - those ponies will soon enough start to use it. Heck why not order it on an app and pay for it via app then collect speedier take away. I don't think they factored in so many older people who don't want it will still be around. Self service tills? No thanks. I went to get some Mcmuck the other day and gave the touch screen a go, gave up halfway through and went to pay at the till.
Welshbeef said:
227bhp said:
You've got a good memory.
I don't think they factored in so many older people who don't want it will still be around. Self service tills? No thanks. I went to get some Mcmuck the other day and gave the touch screen a go, gave up halfway through and went to pay at the till.
What you'll find it possibly one on the till a huge queue for that and empty self service - those ponies will soon enough start to use it. Heck why not order it on an app and pay for it via app then collect speedier take away. I don't think they factored in so many older people who don't want it will still be around. Self service tills? No thanks. I went to get some Mcmuck the other day and gave the touch screen a go, gave up halfway through and went to pay at the till.
I left the touch screen In Mcds and joined a queue, OH persevered with it and I got served before she did. It isn't about being any quicker, it's about them saving money. Same with self service tills at the Supermarket, it's quicker the old way, it's just an alternative.
Lots of things cycle, if we go totally automated in years to come someone will go back to using people and everyone one will flock to use it as if it's something new or 'retro cool'.
How many automated car washes now compared to 15 - 20 yrs ago? Practically none, it's mainly all done by hand.
Going back even further we used to sit outside our caves around a fire, cook our meat on a fire. Monks in Abbeys made booze. In the pubs that are left lager is dying, real ale is more popular (they've made it blonde and pissy so lager drinkers can wean themselves onto it.
So, where was I last Friday night and what was I doing?
Sat outside the back of the house cooking meat on charcoal, drinking homemade booze. Afterwards we lit the Chimenea and sat round that discussing how Germany had been stopped from taking over Europe for the third time by us.
Some things just cycle, others take decades to get working properly, some things never work properly at all. Apps and mobile phones are a bit w
ky right now imo.Edited by 227bhp on Wednesday 27th July 08:30
Welshbeef said:
The same issue happened in the cotton mills then in farming then in heavy industry then building cars then book keeping then X y z fact is there will always be something new.
We all need to be prepared to be dynamic and willing to change careers a number of times through our working lives. Not accepting that reality could mean you are thrown onto the st heap.
So you leave uni with £40k of student debt, earn £20k for a few years rising to £28k after five at which point you realize your industry is going to be next... What can you do? Another Bachelors? Risk specializing with a masters in the vain hope you can avoid the cut for another five years?We all need to be prepared to be dynamic and willing to change careers a number of times through our working lives. Not accepting that reality could mean you are thrown onto the s
t heap. The previous eight years of life would have been better served financially by shelf stacking like a beast and living with mum & dad if you're lucky enough to have the option.
I can see perhaps some specialist or low volume industries surviving, but by their nature they can't provide large scale employment.
The middle class and (upward) social mobility are over, especially in England I think. Capital has won.
Edited by glazbagun on Wednesday 27th July 06:37
I watched the following link that was shared in the Lounge youtube thread.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
"Humans need not apply"
Quite simply i struggled to counter the videos points at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
"Humans need not apply"
Quite simply i struggled to counter the videos points at all.
The big change will happen once AI reaches the "god point".
This is the best article I've ever read on the subject.
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intellige...
On automation, ironically you could get a computer to do 99.9% of all the banking/insurance/financial services work, but try to robotize a plumber, an electrician or a hair dresser.
This is the best article I've ever read on the subject.
http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intellige...
On automation, ironically you could get a computer to do 99.9% of all the banking/insurance/financial services work, but try to robotize a plumber, an electrician or a hair dresser.
glazbagun said:
Welshbeef said:
The same issue happened in the cotton mills then in farming then in heavy industry then building cars then book keeping then X y z fact is there will always be something new.
We all need to be prepared to be dynamic and willing to change careers a number of times through our working lives. Not accepting that reality could mean you are thrown onto the st heap.
So you leave uni with £40k of student debt, earn £20k for a few years rising to £28k after five at which point you realize your industry is going to be next... What can you do? Another Bachelors? Risk specializing with a masters in the vain hope you can avoid the cut for another five years?We all need to be prepared to be dynamic and willing to change careers a number of times through our working lives. Not accepting that reality could mean you are thrown onto the s
t heap. The previous eight years of life would have been better served financially by shelf stacking like a beast and living with mum & dad if you're lucky enough to have the option.
I can see perhaps some specialist or low volume industries surviving, but by their nature they can't provide large scale employment.
The middle class and (upward) social mobility are over, especially in England I think. Capital has won.
Edited by glazbagun on Wednesday 27th July 06:37
Put it this way once you have a degree unless specialised in say quantum mechanics or such like and you want to get into that industry then yes there are some barriers to entry ditto if you have a wishy washy degree say Kilngon or Star Wars whatever whereas provided you have a good degree from a good uni with good results you can in essence get into pretty much any vocation.
You will continuously be training throughout your career be it further professional qualifications or advancing managerial skills. If your smart it's not going to be a problem anywhere really if your not so smart you'll have to work harder that's life.
Welshbeef said:
What will happen is the govt will increase corporation taxes.
The political elite and economists have been thinking about this for a long time and the solution is a living wage paid to everyone weather you work or don't. They are trying to find out what that starting point needs to be and then it will need to be increased.
In essence it's likely you will see mass economically idle people instead they have an income a citizens income to spend with these companies. Imagine never working again ever for a salary - salary will likely be a compromise and be level for all. You will have individuals who are highly creative and they will be wealthy the rest will all be the same but save or spend as they see fit.
Some Economists have been thinking about this, but I very much doubt the political elite have. Their solutions thus far have been the subsidising of lifestyle choices (tax credits) and a higher minimum wage. Both of these cannot solve the problem of stagnating incomes for the broad mass of the population in the middle.The political elite and economists have been thinking about this for a long time and the solution is a living wage paid to everyone weather you work or don't. They are trying to find out what that starting point needs to be and then it will need to be increased.
In essence it's likely you will see mass economically idle people instead they have an income a citizens income to spend with these companies. Imagine never working again ever for a salary - salary will likely be a compromise and be level for all. You will have individuals who are highly creative and they will be wealthy the rest will all be the same but save or spend as they see fit.
Someone said the adaptable will do fine and that is correct. The highly educated and skilled and adaptable will do as well in the decades to come as in the two decades just gone. These are however a fraction of the workforce and an even smaller share of the voters.
Either parties of the mainstream embrace solutions to this issue. Citizens income, ending low skilled immigration, adequate housing provision etc, or they will be swept away by populist parties of either left or right.
Welshbeef said:
glazbagun said:
Welshbeef said:
The same issue happened in the cotton mills then in farming then in heavy industry then building cars then book keeping then X y z fact is there will always be something new.
We all need to be prepared to be dynamic and willing to change careers a number of times through our working lives. Not accepting that reality could mean you are thrown onto the st heap.
So you leave uni with £40k of student debt, earn £20k for a few years rising to £28k after five at which point you realize your industry is going to be next... What can you do? Another Bachelors? Risk specializing with a masters in the vain hope you can avoid the cut for another five years?We all need to be prepared to be dynamic and willing to change careers a number of times through our working lives. Not accepting that reality could mean you are thrown onto the s
t heap. The previous eight years of life would have been better served financially by shelf stacking like a beast and living with mum & dad if you're lucky enough to have the option.
I can see perhaps some specialist or low volume industries surviving, but by their nature they can't provide large scale employment.
The middle class and (upward) social mobility are over, especially in England I think. Capital has won.
Edited by glazbagun on Wednesday 27th July 06:37
Put it this way once you have a degree unless specialised in say quantum mechanics or such like and you want to get into that industry then yes there are some barriers to entry ditto if you have a wishy washy degree say Kilngon or Star Wars whatever whereas provided you have a good degree from a good uni with good results you can in essence get into pretty much any vocation.
You will continuously be training throughout your career be it further professional qualifications or advancing managerial skills. If your smart it's not going to be a problem anywhere really if your not so smart you'll have to work harder that's life.
basically you get your degree as a gateway to next phase in your life an so on a so forth, you will constantly learn new skills if you dont you end up like so many same job same grade 20 years etc.
Its a choice you make in respect of your life path. As part of my job I come up with the concepts for process automation at the bank, how can we make things simpler fast more efficent (cheaper). Often I build a prototype process learn it train others its get refined and automated till its fully live and I supervise for a bit then move on.
I get paid for thinking of the concept in the first place not for doing the task. An thats the crux sooner or later something new has to be done and someone has to decide what that "new" is.
Automation will not kill jobs like that although in the long run AI might but I suspect I can finsih my career (30 years left if I work to 67) before that happens.
TLandCruiser said:
People say we will have a life of luxury while everything is automated, I can't see that happening. Technology was suppose to make our lives easier yet the reality is people now working longer hours than befor for instance; sit on train and use the work laptop, work all day then use the laptop on the commute home and once your home you have email at your finger tips via smartphones.
Only if you choose to. I use the laptop at work, then cycle home - strangely enough without trying to do email as I go round Elephant & Castle - and have taken work email off my phone.If I need to work longer hours at certain points of a sales cycle, I will do so to whatever extent is required, but I won't routinely check email away from the office just for the sake of it.
Doesn't seem to be impacting my career at all at present.
Kermit power said:
TLandCruiser said:
People say we will have a life of luxury while everything is automated, I can't see that happening. Technology was suppose to make our lives easier yet the reality is people now working longer hours than befor for instance; sit on train and use the work laptop, work all day then use the laptop on the commute home and once your home you have email at your finger tips via smartphones.
Only if you choose to. I use the laptop at work, then cycle home - strangely enough without trying to do email as I go round Elephant & Castle - and have taken work email off my phone.If I need to work longer hours at certain points of a sales cycle, I will do so to whatever extent is required, but I won't routinely check email away from the office just for the sake of it.
Doesn't seem to be impacting my career at all at present.
Welshbeef said:
May I ask how old you are?
Put it this way once you have a degree unless specialised in say quantum mechanics or such like and you want to get into that industry then yes there are some barriers to entry ditto if you have a wishy washy degree say Kilngon or Star Wars whatever whereas provided you have a good degree from a good uni with good results you can in essence get into pretty much any vocation.
You will continuously be training throughout your career be it further professional qualifications or advancing managerial skills. If your smart it's not going to be a problem anywhere really if your not so smart you'll have to work harder that's life.
I would agree with you in todays world. But with AI, voice recognition and general robotics coming on leaps and bounds, combined with the global market place and internet shrinking the world I think that jobs will be eaten up faster than they are created. Put it this way once you have a degree unless specialised in say quantum mechanics or such like and you want to get into that industry then yes there are some barriers to entry ditto if you have a wishy washy degree say Kilngon or Star Wars whatever whereas provided you have a good degree from a good uni with good results you can in essence get into pretty much any vocation.
You will continuously be training throughout your career be it further professional qualifications or advancing managerial skills. If your smart it's not going to be a problem anywhere really if your not so smart you'll have to work harder that's life.
On a personal level I'm not too worried by automation (famous last words!)- it's been after my job for a century but I'm fairly niche with minimal student debt and, while probably stuck in the rental trap, not without escape options. If my post reeked of despair it was at the situation many of my friends find themselves in with a variety of degrees from illustration to maths and physics- and they are all from the £3k tuition days when you could still get maintenance grants.
Additionally, even with every man and their dog going to uni these days, the vast majority of the workforce are surely never going to get a good general degree from a good university- that's like saying everyone will need to become above average.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff