Politics in France

[Digga]

WinstonWolf said:

hornetrider said:

jjlynn27 said:

Same demographics that were voting for ukip here are voting for FN there. Mostly C2 and lower. Unsurprisingly.

What's C2? What conclusion are you drawing?

Sounds like the typical Corbyn voter...

Who really ought to have a listen to the Jonathan Pie piece, because it says all about why that mindset is so ludicrously and dangerously wrong.

FWIW jjlynn27, JP probably, actually shares your political views, he just understands why your attitudes - Trump, UKIP, Brexit - etc. are not just wrong, but damagingly so, for all sides of the debate.

Try and learn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=LL2EeKpC8EWETnh...

[andy_s]

Murph7355 said:

I think you're being way too simplistic.

Her following has increased quite substantially if you can read anything into round 1. There'll be a good chunk of that around burkaism, though she didn't implement these policies (I wonder if Macron will reverse them...I bet he doesn't) and immigration...but it won't all be IMO.

Is Macron overtly "more EU"? Or is he just not noting that he's anti it? I do find it interesting to see so much support for him despite him looking to eat into the 35hr week, and cutting corp tax etc (which I thought would have the majority of French people voting for anyone but him!). I wonder how much of that is genuinely "we dislike MLP's anti-EU stance enough that we'll even put up with that" or "something else"....?

She'll lose round 2 I am certain. But I'm far from convinced that's because the vast majority of French people want more EU. And if that is all Macron offers them, I would bet a fiver that she'll substantially increase her following in 5yrs (and that he'll have a hard time governing).

Macron is the establishment dressed up as the disestablishment, some clever machination has got him where he is; he will suck up the left wing votes in the next round, of which there are plenty - Mélenchon was only a few points off and makes Corbin look like Milk Snatcher - to take him across the line; baring any last minute revelations.

Le Pen has been pretty vilified in the predominantly left wing press despite the parties stance being very much a watered down, 'socially acceptable', version of her fathers original project yet still made a huge impact; however, even if she were to win (and this applies also to Macron to a lesser extent) her manifesto would be severely stymied by what will undoubtedly be a left-wing government underneath her - think Obama and to a degree Trump.

Macron is pro-EU, and although there is a feeling of discontent about it, it isn't enough to use as a main pillar of policy. On the working hours subject, I would observe that a few other candidates had forwarded far more unacceptable [to the French] versions, so his seemed quite innocuous in comparison. Like I say, clever machinations...

[FourWheelDrift]

Macron is to French politics what choosing a new colour to paint your magnolia walls is to decorating. And then choosing magnolia again.

[aeropilot]

Eddie Strohacker said:

Lucky for you some of the other 10% are here then.

I doubt you'd know the difference.

My ex-MiL and her family suffered appalingly at the hands of 'facists' and then 'stalinists' between 1939 and 1942, so I know via direct first hand experience, that there is no difference between the so-called far left and far right.
In fact it was largely due to the 'far right' invading the 'far left' that ultimately saved her and her parents lives. Didn't save her little sister though.

[MrBrightSi]

Digga said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=LL2EeKpC8EWETnh...

Decent video to post, however, the rest of your liked videos have some decent metal in them. Feel proper nostalgia listening to devil driver and coal chamber.

[jjlynn27]

Murph7355 said:

I think you're being way too simplistic.

Her following has increased quite substantially if you can read anything into round 1. There'll be a good chunk of that around burkaism, though she didn't implement these policies (I wonder if Macron will reverse them...I bet he doesn't) and immigration...but it won't all be IMO.

I do think that most of support (very large majority) of Le Pen voters would be covered by those two groups. Are there exceptions? Of course there are.

Murpy7355 said:

Is Macron overtly "more EU"? Or is he just not noting that he's anti it? I do find it interesting to see so much support for him despite him looking to eat into the 35hr week, and cutting corp tax etc (which I thought would have the majority of French people voting for anyone but him!). I wonder how much of that is genuinely "we dislike MLP's anti-EU stance enough that we'll even put up with that" or "something else"....?

He's very openly 'more EU'. As I posted before, Macron, and most people voting for him realize the need for the labour market reforms. That's the information that I'm getting from friends in Paris. There is also a factor of not wanting anything to do with FN, even if she promises retirement at 60 (complete pipe dream) and capping working week.

Murphy7355 said:

She'll lose round 2 I am certain. But I'm far from convinced that's because the vast majority of French people want more EU. And if that is all Macron offers them, I would bet a fiver that she'll substantially increase her following in 5yrs (and that he'll have a hard time governing).

I have no idea what'll happen in 5 years time. But I'd be very surprised if she wins 1st round, let alone the race overall.

[Eddie Strohacker]

aeropilot said:

I doubt you'd know the difference.

Go on, I'm all ears.

[Murph7355]

jjlynn27 said:

...

He's very openly 'more EU'. As I posted before, Macron, and most people voting for him realize the need for the labour market reforms. That's the information that I'm getting from friends in Paris. There is also a factor of not wanting anything to do with FN, even if she promises retirement at 60 (complete pipe dream) and capping working week.

...

I have no idea what'll happen in 5 years time. But I'd be very surprised if she wins 1st round, let alone the race overall.

Ta (and to andy_s).

We should have a wager on the outcome in 2020

Much will depend on how far Macron's promises unravel. Having looked a bit more closely at what he's promising, I do wonder how he anticipates paying for it all. And how much will actually become real.

[jjlynn27]

Digga said:

Who really ought to have a listen to the Jonathan Pie piece, because it says all about why that mindset is so ludicrously and dangerously wrong.

FWIW jjlynn27, JP probably, actually shares your political views, he just understands why your attitudes - Trump, UKIP, Brexit - etc. are not just wrong, but damagingly so, for all sides of the debate.

Try and learn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=LL2EeKpC8EWETnh...

JP does what JP does, it's a youtube channel designed to provide revenue.

What are my attitudes? I wouldn't bunch 'Trump, UKIP, Brexit' into the same group. Not at all. I keep repeating this but I'll do it once again. I do think that most of UKIP (huge majority) voters are the same demographics as the same proportion of people voting for MLP. I don't think that about Brexit voters in general. There is some overlapping but I personally know some very bright people who voted leave, even if I disagree with their reasons.

[Digga]

MrBrightSi said:

Digga said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=LL2EeKpC8EWETnh...

Decent video to post, however, the rest of your liked videos have some decent metal in them. Feel proper nostalgia listening to devil driver and coal chamber.

Not my history!

[Digga]

jjlynn27 said:

Digga said:

Who really ought to have a listen to the Jonathan Pie piece, because it says all about why that mindset is so ludicrously and dangerously wrong.

FWIW jjlynn27, JP probably, actually shares your political views, he just understands why your attitudes - Trump, UKIP, Brexit - etc. are not just wrong, but damagingly so, for all sides of the debate.

Try and learn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=LL2EeKpC8EWETnh...

JP does what JP does, it's a youtube channel designed to provide revenue.

What are my attitudes? I wouldn't bunch 'Trump, UKIP, Brexit' into the same group. Not at all. I keep repeating this but I'll do it once again. I do think that most of UKIP (huge majority) voters are the same demographics as the same proportion of people voting for MLP. I don't think that about Brexit voters in general. There is some overlapping but I personally know some very bright people who voted leave, even if I disagree with their reasons.

The difference in France is the lost demographic - the numbers of youngsters there who are hard right, rather than moderate or liberal left. Youth unemployment is creating a very different political dynamic to, say, the UK or USA.

Generalising about people, just because of their voting preference is, frankly, cretinous. It's like taking the view that all overweight people are dumb, because they 'must' know their diet and lifestyle is killing them.

[aeropilot]

Eddie Strohacker said:

aeropilot said:

I doubt you'd know the difference.

Go on, I'm all ears.

Given you've already quoted from my post explaining, I can't see the point of going any further

[audidoody]

Digga said:

Who really ought to have a listen to the Jonathan Pie piece, because it says all about why that mindset is so ludicrously and dangerously wrong.

FWIW jjlynn27, JP probably, actually shares your political views, he just understands why your attitudes - Trump, UKIP, Brexit - etc. are not just wrong, but damagingly so, for all sides of the debate.

Try and learn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=LL2EeKpC8EWETnh...

How 'telling' that it takes an actor do to the job the MSM should be doing

[Eddie Strohacker]

aeropilot said:

Given you've already quoted from my post explaining, I can't see the point of going any further

Got it, you were just in for a throwaway insult. Water off a duck's back.

[jjlynn27]

Murph7355 said:

Ta (and to andy_s).

We should have a wager on the outcome in 2020

Much will depend on how far Macron's promises unravel. Having looked a bit more closely at what he's promising, I do wonder how he anticipates paying for it all. And how much will actually become real.

I don't usually gamble, but I wouldn't be opposed to something that benefits charity of choice.

As I said, I don't know what future holds, but to me, the promise of reforms of labour market seems far more deliverable than 'retirement at 60', taxing employers who employ foreigners (10% perc of their salary), boost the military spending (where from?).
Worth pointing out that left candidate who wanted to reduce working week to 32h, got absolutely mauled. Support in single digits, lowest since 60s IIRC.

[amusingduck]

Is there anything Russia can't do?

[Murph7355]

jjlynn27 said:

Murph7355 said:

Ta (and to andy_s).

We should have a wager on the outcome in 2020

Much will depend on how far Macron's promises unravel. Having looked a bit more closely at what he's promising, I do wonder how he anticipates paying for it all. And how much will actually become real.

I don't usually gamble, but I wouldn't be opposed to something that benefits charity of choice.

As I said, I don't know what future holds, but to me, the promise of reforms of labour market seems far more deliverable than 'retirement at 60', taxing employers who employ foreigners (10% perc of their salary), boost the military spending (where from?).
Worth pointing out that left candidate who wanted to reduce working week to 32h, got absolutely mauled. Support in single digits, lowest since 60s IIRC.

Assuming we're both still on here in 2020, £100 to a charity of the winner's choosing?

(If what I actually think will come to pass - a copy of the UK whereby it's not actually UKIP that implemented the blow, but encouraged a bigger party to do so due to rising support - I'm doing myself out of money here. But what the hell ).

Macron's plans don't seem any more fiscally viable the way I read them. And I'm not sure his track record is considered that great. But best of luck to him. If he can pull it all of, I might even start to think staying in the EU might have been a good idea

[jjlynn27]

Murph7355 said:

Assuming we're both still on here in 2020, £100 to a charity of the winner's choosing?

...

Perfect. Do you want to post the cheque for £100 to Cancer Research now, or do you want to wait for formalities ?

[MrBrightSi]

amusingduck said:

Is there anything Russia can't do?

Edited by MrBrightSi on Monday 24th April 12:21

[jjlynn27]

amusingduck said:

Is there anything Russia can't do?

Make a decent car? (for my sins i've driven both Lada (not 4x4) and Volga).