Politics in France
Discussion
jsf said:
Again, this is why Macron coming out to the EU anthem was a huge mistake.
France has elections in June that form the equivalent of our house of commons, traditionally when a new President gets in, the nation also votes for the Presidents party so he can get things done.
That's not going to happen in June for two reasons, firstly he doesn't have a party machine and standing MP's for the electorate to vote for, so there is no status quo vote that works for him. Secondly, most of the electorate don't like him or his policies, so his supporting MP's will get hammered in the polls, relative to what normally happens.
You then have an Obama lame duck situation, where he can mess about on the fringes, but the major issues wont get fixed. We will be back here again in 5 years with an even more disillusioned French society, assuming somehow the Euro hasn't yet blown up.
As distinct from the national front & their two national assembly members, had it gone the other way?France has elections in June that form the equivalent of our house of commons, traditionally when a new President gets in, the nation also votes for the Presidents party so he can get things done.
That's not going to happen in June for two reasons, firstly he doesn't have a party machine and standing MP's for the electorate to vote for, so there is no status quo vote that works for him. Secondly, most of the electorate don't like him or his policies, so his supporting MP's will get hammered in the polls, relative to what normally happens.
You then have an Obama lame duck situation, where he can mess about on the fringes, but the major issues wont get fixed. We will be back here again in 5 years with an even more disillusioned French society, assuming somehow the Euro hasn't yet blown up.
You're painting a worst case scenario, Macron will run all 577 seats, it'll end up a coalition in some form & he'll muddle through with a mixture of ordinary parliamentary process, ordonnances & decrets. Business will be transacted because business needs to be transacted. He won't have a free hand & will get a percentage of his program enacted. A lame duck he will not be.
Eddie Strohacker said:
jsf said:
Again, this is why Macron coming out to the EU anthem was a huge mistake.
France has elections in June that form the equivalent of our house of commons, traditionally when a new President gets in, the nation also votes for the Presidents party so he can get things done.
That's not going to happen in June for two reasons, firstly he doesn't have a party machine and standing MP's for the electorate to vote for, so there is no status quo vote that works for him. Secondly, most of the electorate don't like him or his policies, so his supporting MP's will get hammered in the polls, relative to what normally happens.
You then have an Obama lame duck situation, where he can mess about on the fringes, but the major issues wont get fixed. We will be back here again in 5 years with an even more disillusioned French society, assuming somehow the Euro hasn't yet blown up.
As distinct from the national front & their two national assembly members, had it gone the other way?France has elections in June that form the equivalent of our house of commons, traditionally when a new President gets in, the nation also votes for the Presidents party so he can get things done.
That's not going to happen in June for two reasons, firstly he doesn't have a party machine and standing MP's for the electorate to vote for, so there is no status quo vote that works for him. Secondly, most of the electorate don't like him or his policies, so his supporting MP's will get hammered in the polls, relative to what normally happens.
You then have an Obama lame duck situation, where he can mess about on the fringes, but the major issues wont get fixed. We will be back here again in 5 years with an even more disillusioned French society, assuming somehow the Euro hasn't yet blown up.
You're painting a worst case scenario, Macron will run all 577 seats, it'll end up a coalition in some form & he'll muddle through with a mixture of ordinary parliamentary process, ordonnances & decrets. Business will be transacted because business needs to be transacted. He won't have a free hand & will get a percentage of his program enacted. A lame duck he will not be.
This is why Macron needs to go on a charm offensive with the people who don't support him, which is most of the country, not just the 35% who voted Le Pen.
I think whatever he manages to do is irrelevant in France in the big scheme of things, because they are screwed until the Euro changes. The only thing the guy can do, if he wants to genuinely help France, is convince the Germans to reform the Euro and take the political pain that would mean. If he can do that, then he will have made a change for France worth talking about.
There is no chance of that with Merkul, if Schultz gets in then there may be a chance something will change, it will take Schultz sacrificing his career for it.
jsf said:
Not really, with either final candidate we would have a similar situation, both would have problems doing what they wish for.
This is why Macron needs to go on a charm offensive with the people who don't support him, which is most of the country, not just the 35% who voted Le Pen.
I think whatever he manages to do is irrelevant in France in the big scheme of things, because they are screwed until the Euro changes. The only thing the guy can do, if he wants to genuinely help France, is convince the Germans to reform the Euro and take the political pain that would mean. If he can do that, then he will have made a change for France worth talking about.
There is no chance of that with Merkul, if Schultz gets in then there may be a chance something will change, it will take Schultz sacrificing his career for it.
You've just given him a bespoke JSF economic policy to enact!This is why Macron needs to go on a charm offensive with the people who don't support him, which is most of the country, not just the 35% who voted Le Pen.
I think whatever he manages to do is irrelevant in France in the big scheme of things, because they are screwed until the Euro changes. The only thing the guy can do, if he wants to genuinely help France, is convince the Germans to reform the Euro and take the political pain that would mean. If he can do that, then he will have made a change for France worth talking about.
There is no chance of that with Merkul, if Schultz gets in then there may be a chance something will change, it will take Schultz sacrificing his career for it.
We campaign in poetry & govern in prose, I'll give you that much, but in respect of the EU, his public position is to reform via giving the eurozone it's own budget, finance minister & parliament - which he may or may not manage - I suspect not but we'll see. On Brexit, he's said he wants full EU single market rules to apply to trade partners & wants to promote free trade deals.
I get that you don't like the guy, that's your prerogative but putting policies on him that you think he should follow then proclaiming him a lame duck because he won't achieve an imaginary path you've set out is way out there!!
jsf said:
Germany has done something very smart (for Germany short to medium term), rather than do a full on globalisation where they embrace the whole world, they invested in the eastern block and sucked all their capacity into their automotive supply chain. The EU has been used to build the eastern block infrastructure and continues to do so. That means Germany has control over the part of the Eurozone that provides the required products to make their exports competitive. They now have a highly skilled, cheap labour force with new and efficient infrastructure working flat out to supply them. That also means they have a large block of the EU that are making lots of money and are rapidly rising their national standard of living, these countries will not kill the golden goose and will do exactly what Germany wants in the EU council.
Now, why does that sound familiar..? 
Eddie Strohacker said:
jsf said:
Not really, with either final candidate we would have a similar situation, both would have problems doing what they wish for.
This is why Macron needs to go on a charm offensive with the people who don't support him, which is most of the country, not just the 35% who voted Le Pen.
I think whatever he manages to do is irrelevant in France in the big scheme of things, because they are screwed until the Euro changes. The only thing the guy can do, if he wants to genuinely help France, is convince the Germans to reform the Euro and take the political pain that would mean. If he can do that, then he will have made a change for France worth talking about.
There is no chance of that with Merkul, if Schultz gets in then there may be a chance something will change, it will take Schultz sacrificing his career for it.
You've just given him a bespoke JSF economic policy to enact!This is why Macron needs to go on a charm offensive with the people who don't support him, which is most of the country, not just the 35% who voted Le Pen.
I think whatever he manages to do is irrelevant in France in the big scheme of things, because they are screwed until the Euro changes. The only thing the guy can do, if he wants to genuinely help France, is convince the Germans to reform the Euro and take the political pain that would mean. If he can do that, then he will have made a change for France worth talking about.
There is no chance of that with Merkul, if Schultz gets in then there may be a chance something will change, it will take Schultz sacrificing his career for it.
We campaign in poetry & govern in prose, I'll give you that much, but in respect of the EU, his public position is to reform via giving the eurozone it's own budget, finance minister & parliament - which he may or may not manage - I suspect not but we'll see. On Brexit, he's said he wants full EU single market rules to apply to trade partners & wants to promote free trade deals.
I get that you don't like the guy, that's your prerogative but putting policies on him that you think he should follow then proclaiming him a lame duck because he won't achieve an imaginary path you've set out is way out there!!
Eddie Strohacker said:
turbobloke said:
It looks as though Macron is already doing that to himself! He imagines a path, will he achieve it? Given the totality of his situation, not all and not easily.
Great. Saturday's lottery numbers whenever you're ready, thanks, Biff.As it happens...my post included a question 'will he' and the response was not all and not easily, which bit do you disagree with and why?
Eddie Strohacker said:
Pardon me for passing on that, but in my time here, I've found there to be one or two correspondents with whom a dialogue is a demonstrably profitless enterprise on any level & having carelessly broken that rule once today already, I don't intend to again.
PHers will infer what they infer
obviously 
turbobloke said:
Eddie Strohacker said:
Pardon me for passing on that, but in my time here, I've found there to be one or two correspondents with whom a dialogue is a demonstrably profitless enterprise on any level & having carelessly broken that rule once today already, I don't intend to again.
PHers will infer what they infer
obviously Anyway, must dash, busy busy. Those bus windows don't lick themselves.
swiveleyedgit said:
Been watching the reports on the BBC news channel about Trump, just wondered if they're going to follow developments in France in the same way.
We got saturation coverage about Trump because he might have been a bad man, but since illegally attacking Syria and threatening to nuke Korea the media has seen his gentle side and become far less negative about him.France on the other hand is miles away so it's not really worth reporting on, particularly as the warm and fluffy Macron is now in charge to give those French people More Of The Same, because lets face it - they loved what Soros/Hollande did with the country.
I'm thinking of retiring to Paris because it's a bit dull in England, there so much more in our multicultural neighbour to see and do,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKp92wf1QDU
Thank-you France, for keeping the fires going and keeping it real.
Eddie Strohacker said:
jsf said:
Not really, with either final candidate we would have a similar situation, both would have problems doing what they wish for.
This is why Macron needs to go on a charm offensive with the people who don't support him, which is most of the country, not just the 35% who voted Le Pen.
I think whatever he manages to do is irrelevant in France in the big scheme of things, because they are screwed until the Euro changes. The only thing the guy can do, if he wants to genuinely help France, is convince the Germans to reform the Euro and take the political pain that would mean. If he can do that, then he will have made a change for France worth talking about.
There is no chance of that with Merkul, if Schultz gets in then there may be a chance something will change, it will take Schultz sacrificing his career for it.
You've just given him a bespoke JSF economic policy to enact!This is why Macron needs to go on a charm offensive with the people who don't support him, which is most of the country, not just the 35% who voted Le Pen.
I think whatever he manages to do is irrelevant in France in the big scheme of things, because they are screwed until the Euro changes. The only thing the guy can do, if he wants to genuinely help France, is convince the Germans to reform the Euro and take the political pain that would mean. If he can do that, then he will have made a change for France worth talking about.
There is no chance of that with Merkul, if Schultz gets in then there may be a chance something will change, it will take Schultz sacrificing his career for it.
We campaign in poetry & govern in prose, I'll give you that much, but in respect of the EU, his public position is to reform via giving the eurozone it's own budget, finance minister & parliament - which he may or may not manage - I suspect not but we'll see. On Brexit, he's said he wants full EU single market rules to apply to trade partners & wants to promote free trade deals.
I get that you don't like the guy, that's your prerogative but putting policies on him that you think he should follow then proclaiming him a lame duck because he won't achieve an imaginary path you've set out is way out there!!
With regards to wanting full SM rules to apply to trade partners, never going to happen, none of the current TA's the EU has fit that criteria and no new ones will ever be agreed with anyone of substance that would contain the four freedoms.
If he goes down the shrinking of the state and yet more austerity route then all that will happen is the national debt will spiral whilst you have yet more people out of work. The only way to fix France is to change the Euro and allow countries to go back to sensible monetary policies that allow them to grow.
What I suggest is required is not way out there, it's the only way to save the EU, A storm is coming down the road, most likely Italy will trigger it, but if not it will just be put off a bit longer. Brexit doesn't really matter structurally because we kept our own currency, when Italy triggers a bank run, which it will if they choose to have a referendum post a Eurosceptic coalition, it's dead unless the Euro is allowed to split and the Germans agree to have full fiscal union with the export producing members. You will find France wont be in that block, unless Germany swallows even more and allows them for purely political reasons, because fiscally they don't belong there.
If France isn't in the big boys block, that's political dynamite for the EU.
The people who thought up this Euro project and pushed it through whilst not having the political mechanisms that provided a proper currency should be ashamed of themselves, because they are going to be responsible for one hell of a mess when it all unravels.
Edited by anonymous-user on Saturday 13th May 18:00
768 said:
No, they should keep doing it and we should keep rolling our eyes and pointing out the most obvious flaws.
You can even keep up the faux outrage that it isn't just swallowed too.
The "flaw" about age and education? It is not a flaw. The analyses clearly differentiate between voter age and voter education level. Obviously the two things area correlated. But equally obviously it's trivial to take that into account when looking at a third variable, and that has been done. If you group voters by age you still see strong correlation between their votes and their educational attainment.You can even keep up the faux outrage that it isn't just swallowed too.
I haven't seen a single sentence in the FT or Economist that equates in any way to "calling Leave voters thick" or even hinting at it.
I would have thought it was fairly obvious what the stats suggest, given it ties in neatly with what was already being said anecdotally, e.g. people who don't feel they've done well out of the country's development over the last few decades are more likely to vote leave.
People who for whatever reason have ended up with higher educational attainment are likely to be higher earners and have more and better job opportunities. They tend to be less rooted to a specific community and region. They are more likely to be in favour of the status quo, because it has served them well. They are more likely to see Freedom of Movement as (a) offering them work and life opportunities and (b) a way of keeping the cost of living down. Unsurprisingly they tended to vote remain.
What these stats show is how starkly society is divided. People were amazed how clearly that division could be quantified in terms of such simple measures. That's why they got so much attention.
ATG said:
The "flaw" about age and education? It is not a flaw. The analyses clearly differentiate between voter age and voter education level. Obviously the two things area correlated. But equally obviously it's trivial to take that into account when looking at a third variable, and that has been done. If you group voters by age you still see strong correlation between their votes and their educational attainment.
I haven't seen a single sentence in the FT or Economist that equates in any way to "calling Leave voters thick" or even hinting at it.
I would have thought it was fairly obvious what the stats suggest, given it ties in neatly with what was already being said anecdotally, e.g. people who don't feel they've done well out of the country's development over the last few decades are more likely to vote leave.
People who for whatever reason have ended up with higher educational attainment are likely to be higher earners and have more and better job opportunities. They tend to be less rooted to a specific community and region. They are more likely to be in favour of the status quo, because it has served them well. They are more likely to see Freedom of Movement as (a) offering them work and life opportunities and (b) a way of keeping the cost of living down. Unsurprisingly they tended to vote remain.
What these stats show is how starkly society is divided. People were amazed how clearly that division could be quantified in terms of such simple measures. That's why they got so much attention.
Out of interest, why not therefore simply show a chart of economic attainment against voting characteristics?I haven't seen a single sentence in the FT or Economist that equates in any way to "calling Leave voters thick" or even hinting at it.
I would have thought it was fairly obvious what the stats suggest, given it ties in neatly with what was already being said anecdotally, e.g. people who don't feel they've done well out of the country's development over the last few decades are more likely to vote leave.
People who for whatever reason have ended up with higher educational attainment are likely to be higher earners and have more and better job opportunities. They tend to be less rooted to a specific community and region. They are more likely to be in favour of the status quo, because it has served them well. They are more likely to see Freedom of Movement as (a) offering them work and life opportunities and (b) a way of keeping the cost of living down. Unsurprisingly they tended to vote remain.
What these stats show is how starkly society is divided. People were amazed how clearly that division could be quantified in terms of such simple measures. That's why they got so much attention.
Globs said:
We got saturation coverage about Trump because he might have been a bad man, but since illegally attacking Syria and threatening to nuke Korea the media has seen his gentle side and become far less negative about him.
France on the other hand is miles away so it's not really worth reporting on, particularly as the warm and fluffy Macron is now in charge to give those French people More Of The Same, because lets face it - they loved what Soros/Hollande did with the country.
I'm thinking of retiring to Paris because it's a bit dull in England, there so much more in our multicultural neighbour to see and do,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKp92wf1QDU
Thank-you France, for keeping the fires going and keeping it real.
Indeed, Macron is a Europhhile/globalist/'useful infidel', like Obama, he won't be doing much in the interests of the people that elected him.France on the other hand is miles away so it's not really worth reporting on, particularly as the warm and fluffy Macron is now in charge to give those French people More Of The Same, because lets face it - they loved what Soros/Hollande did with the country.
I'm thinking of retiring to Paris because it's a bit dull in England, there so much more in our multicultural neighbour to see and do,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKp92wf1QDU
Thank-you France, for keeping the fires going and keeping it real.
It is strange how the supposed smart people are too dumb to realise that a supranational/global socialist government is being installed by stealth, and the Islamification of W.Europe etc. is deliberate policy to destroy national boundaries and identity.
Mr GrimNasty said:
Globs said:
We got saturation coverage about Trump because he might have been a bad man, but since illegally attacking Syria and threatening to nuke Korea the media has seen his gentle side and become far less negative about him.
France on the other hand is miles away so it's not really worth reporting on, particularly as the warm and fluffy Macron is now in charge to give those French people More Of The Same, because lets face it - they loved what Soros/Hollande did with the country.
I'm thinking of retiring to Paris because it's a bit dull in England, there so much more in our multicultural neighbour to see and do,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKp92wf1QDU
Thank-you France, for keeping the fires going and keeping it real.
Indeed, Macron is a Europhhile/globalist/'useful infidel', like Obama, he won't be doing much in the interests of the people that elected him.France on the other hand is miles away so it's not really worth reporting on, particularly as the warm and fluffy Macron is now in charge to give those French people More Of The Same, because lets face it - they loved what Soros/Hollande did with the country.
I'm thinking of retiring to Paris because it's a bit dull in England, there so much more in our multicultural neighbour to see and do,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKp92wf1QDU
Thank-you France, for keeping the fires going and keeping it real.
It is strange how the supposed smart people are too dumb to realise that a supranational/global socialist government is being installed by stealth, and the Islamification of W.Europe etc. is deliberate policy to destroy national boundaries and identity.
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