Politics in France
Discussion
jsf said:
Digga said:
One thing I know about German politics is that inflation is still feared as the ghost that ushered in most of the nation's woes in the last century.
Which is a completely bogus fear, because the massive inflation they suffered post WW1 was a deliberate policy by Germany to screw the French over, so they didn't pay reparations worth a damn. Within no time those reparation payments were valueless.It hurt the German people significantly short term, especially those with savings, which led to the rise of Hitler, but it they hadn't of gone down that path and instead elected a sane chancellor it would have been far less damaging to Germany than decades of austerity which would have been required without enormous inflation.
The problem now is everyone bought into the fallacy that the woes of Germany were because of inflation, so they have this irrational fear of what would be a normal inflationary position. This has led to what we have now, which is in real terms deflation, so people cant inflate their way out of debt. That's OK for the Germans because they don't do debt, but its not OK for the rest of the Eurozone countries.
Notwithstanding all that, we also have more recent examples of economies in significant inflationary difficulty; Argentina and Venezuela.
Digga said:
jsf said:
Digga said:
One thing I know about German politics is that inflation is still feared as the ghost that ushered in most of the nation's woes in the last century.
Which is a completely bogus fear, because the massive inflation they suffered post WW1 was a deliberate policy by Germany to screw the French over, so they didn't pay reparations worth a damn. Within no time those reparation payments were valueless.It hurt the German people significantly short term, especially those with savings, which led to the rise of Hitler, but it they hadn't of gone down that path and instead elected a sane chancellor it would have been far less damaging to Germany than decades of austerity which would have been required without enormous inflation.
The problem now is everyone bought into the fallacy that the woes of Germany were because of inflation, so they have this irrational fear of what would be a normal inflationary position. This has led to what we have now, which is in real terms deflation, so people cant inflate their way out of debt. That's OK for the Germans because they don't do debt, but its not OK for the rest of the Eurozone countries.
Notwithstanding all that, we also have more recent examples of economies in significant inflationary difficulty; Argentina and Venezuela.
The USA Great Depression occurred between 1929 to 1933, it properly ended in 1939 when the industrial complex ramped up for war.
Bloomberg;
Germany's enthusiasm for Macron won't last
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-09...
loafer123 said:
Bloomberg;
Germany's enthusiasm for Macron won't last
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-09...
Precisely.Germany's enthusiasm for Macron won't last
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-09...
The EU faces two choices. Have proper fiscal integration now or wait it out until the Euro blows up.
If Merkel wins the German election then they will just try and hang on to what they have now, knowing it will go tits up eventually.
If Schultz wins the German election there may be a chance of integration, it may still blow up anyway as its probably too late to make enough of a difference to the Italians to hang on.
Either way the Germans are about to get a bloody nose.
BlackLabel said:
I think there is a lot of sense in the idea that if the EU or Euro has any value or credibility, it needs both France and Germany to take key roles in the projects.Without France eiter, both projects are, effectively, neutralised, moot.I say this as someone who has a healthy degree of scepticism about the EU and also (without fiscal union) the Euro, but who nonetheless sees the potential of each.
BlackLabel said:
I think the French rejected the Front National / Le Pen rather than the idea of leaving the EU. I imagine a vote purely on the EU would be pretty close.
jjlynn27 said:
Or, they are just not as easily scared by 'bad immigrants are going to take your jobs'.
Even if that were the only (or even main) reason why people are inclined to vote away from the EU (which it isn't IMO), I'm not sure you're on the money...As an example:
https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/file...
And that's not the only set of numbers painting a similar picture.
As we all know, a binary vote is a very different proposition to a national election. There is still a sizeable body of people in the larger member states that would vote to leave it.
I suspect Le Pen is misguided on what it is about her party that people don't warm to
I couldn't really care less what other countries do. They must decide for themselves, and the balances of the decision are different for them all (especially Eurozone countries of course). And a strong EU is a good thing for us IMO.
But it needs to change radically to become strong. And there doesn't seem to be any appetite to do that.
Murph7355 said:
Even if that were the only (or even main) reason why people are inclined to vote away from the EU (which it isn't IMO), I'm not sure you're on the money...
As an example:
https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/file...
And that's not the only set of numbers painting a similar picture.
As we all know, a binary vote is a very different proposition to a national election. There is still a sizeable body of people in the larger member states that would vote to leave it.
I suspect Le Pen is misguided on what it is about her party that people don't warm to
I couldn't really care less what other countries do. They must decide for themselves, and the balances of the decision are different for them all (especially Eurozone countries of course). And a strong EU is a good thing for us IMO.
But it needs to change radically to become strong. And there doesn't seem to be any appetite to do that.
When it comes to France I rely on what friends who live there are telling me. As an example:
https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/file...
And that's not the only set of numbers painting a similar picture.
As we all know, a binary vote is a very different proposition to a national election. There is still a sizeable body of people in the larger member states that would vote to leave it.
I suspect Le Pen is misguided on what it is about her party that people don't warm to
I couldn't really care less what other countries do. They must decide for themselves, and the balances of the decision are different for them all (especially Eurozone countries of course). And a strong EU is a good thing for us IMO.
But it needs to change radically to become strong. And there doesn't seem to be any appetite to do that.
Brexit was about immigration. Not exclusively, but by far the biggest reason. Le Pen was about immigration and the EU. In the second round, she was told, quite loudly, to bugger off. If that report is authentic it seems that she got the message. I do believe that Macron is good for France, but it's early days.
jjlynn27 said:
...I do believe that Macron is good for France, but it's early days.
It is indeed.Of the two he was probably the better. But what little track record he has isn't great.
If he can influence positive change within the EU, he may be good for everyone. If he can't, the next elections will be interesting.
Murph7355 said:
jjlynn27 said:
...I do believe that Macron is good for France, but it's early days.
It is indeed.Of the two he was probably the better. But what little track record he has isn't great.
If he can influence positive change within the EU, he may be good for everyone. If he can't, the next elections will be interesting.
The EU is stuffed and its one of the reasons I wanted the UK to leave so that we would hopefully be better insulated financially when it falls apart.
frankenstein12 said:
He wont get any positive change in the EU. In no small part as he is he fully endorses the EU programme and has said he wants more integration.
The EU is stuffed and its one of the reasons I wanted the UK to leave so that we would hopefully be better insulated financially when it falls apart.
I may live to regret this in quotes later, but Juncker may actually be right The EU is stuffed and its one of the reasons I wanted the UK to leave so that we would hopefully be better insulated financially when it falls apart.
A (not "the") solution to the EU malaise may be "more EU". Proper fiscal union, formal money transfers, more central control. That is the only way the current directional shape of the EU (a Frankenstein's monster as it were
) can work IMO.This is definitely not what I wanted as a Brit. And I do not believe that the majority of any other member state actually wants this. The more pragmatic solution to the malaise, IMO, would therefore be to revert back to a trading bloc only. Bin or seriously revise the 4 "freedoms" and for Germany to take a hit by some serious Euro reform. Maybe by Germany leaving it...
I tend to agree with you that it's stuffed, as the proles won't allow one option and the politicos won't allow the other. But maybe if pushed Macron will be bright enough to see this and actually do something about it in a few years?
A successful EU (and I really hope they succeed) is either a lot more or a lot less EU.
A lot more means federalism for Euro countries including fiscal integration, and can probably only happen if the weak leave the currency.
A lot less means a reversion to a trading bloc, which would annoying as that is what the UK wanted.
The status quo is a recipe for disaster within 5 years.
loafer123 said:
A successful EU (and I really hope they succeed) is either a lot more or a lot less EU.
A lot more means federalism for Euro countries including fiscal integration, and can probably only happen if the weak leave the currency.
A lot less means a reversion to a trading bloc, which would annoying as that is what the UK wanted.
The status quo is a recipe for disaster within 5 years.
The status quo wont stay as there will be a lot more integration however that is not going to save the EU as they will try force it on the member states citizens who will ultimately reject it and it will cause massive issues across the EU.A lot more means federalism for Euro countries including fiscal integration, and can probably only happen if the weak leave the currency.
A lot less means a reversion to a trading bloc, which would annoying as that is what the UK wanted.
The status quo is a recipe for disaster within 5 years.
berlintaxi said:
jsf said:
It doesn't matter, events will overtake politics in France.
Truly deluded.What we have now is a frankensteins monster of a currency, where countries such as France, Spain and Italy can not work, because the straightjacket of the Euro doesn't allow their consumer based economies to function.
Just imagine how bad things would be without freedom of movement allowing the jobless to move out of these countries, Italy is currently exporting its skilled workers at a scary rate, their economy hasn't grown since they joined the Euro. You think we have a demographic time bomb, just look at how rapidly the Italian demographic is changing as their youth abandon the country.
Either the EU manages a complete revamp of the Euro, or its doomed to crash. All it would currently take would be for the Italians to vote in a coalition that calls for a referendum and the whole thing comes crashing down as anyone with Euros moves their money out of Italy to Germany. It will start a bank run the like we have never seen before.
This is why I say events will overtake politics in France, it doesn't matter what Le Pen says, it's down to other people how the future of the EU pans out. Macron is getting fobbed off by the Germans with regards to sorting out the Euro, unless Schultz pulls off a miracle win, that's not going to change.
This is all the last thing I want to see happen as its going to be devastating to Europe, but it's inevitable if they continue down the path of this currency as its currently functioning.
The French president Emmanuel Macron’s new centrist party looks set to take an overwhelming majority in parliament after the first round of elections held on Sunday.
article said:
Macron’s fledgling centrist movement could, with its centrist allies, go from zero to as many as 430 seats in the 577-seat French national assembly. This would be one of the biggest majorities in post-war France.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff