Discussion
Mario149 said:
Tuna said:
Mario149 said:
Tuna said:
Mario149 said:
I don't think anyone is saying we can't survive. It's not going to be armageddon, we're not totally insane as a country/gov. But when you have people like JRM championing a no-deal economic model as "we'll be fine" which involves unanimously dropping all our tariffs and decimating entire industries,
I think you've fundamentally misunderstood what has been said about 'no deal'.WTO - the no-deal backdrop neither specifies a fixed set of tariffs, nor zero tariffs. It merely requires that for a given type of good, the same tariff is applied to all imports, regardless of the country of origin. WTO specifies maximum tariffs (to prevent protectionist measures), but compliant nations are free to set whatever levels they feel suitable.
Note again, that WTO allows us to drop tariffs completely on goods that we don't produce locally - such as oranges, coffee, chocolate - whilst maintaining tariffs on other items - such as steel or cars. Dropping tariffs on foodstuffs that are not natively grown would potentially save the average consumer 10% on their food bill without affecting government revenue or 'decimating industries'. It would also benefit third world countries such as Africa which are currently frozen out of the European markets by protectionist tariffs demanded by the mediterranean countries.
Okay, so assuming you are correct in all that (I assume you have no reason to lie) why is it that only some ERG members and Patrick Minford think that No Deal is a goer? If it was so obviously beneficial and whatever plan they have is genuinely going to produce the £1.1 trillion benefit in 15 years, why isn't it gaining any traction? And why are we supposed to listen to a minority of experts against a massive majority who say otherwise, both inside and outside of government? Made all the more strange by the fact that we've been told by ERG-types that they had enough of experts, so why are they listening to Minford and ther Economists for Free Trade at all?
I mean, even a cursory glance of the report (https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/A-World-Trade-Deal-The-Complete-Guide-Final-Upload.pdf) yields total b
ks:report said:
15. Wouldn’t WTO rules inevitably lead to tariff and other trade barriers in goods trade between the
EU and the UK thereby leading to a big reduction in our trade with the EU?
No, not on a long-term basis.
As a starting point, the economically optimal trade strategy in most circumstances for the UK would
be to eliminate all tariff and non-tariff barriers unilaterally with respect to all our trading partners -
including the EU. However, whether or not such circumstances hold today, political interests driven
by old-fashioned mercantilism and protectionist producers used to forty years of EU protectionism
at the expense of consumers, makes implementing such a policy politically difficult.
Consequently, the UK’s route to global free trade is likely to be primarily through agreeing FTAs
with other countries, perhaps coupled with unilateral actions where we decide it is in our interests to
take them.
So basically, depending on how you read it i.e. whether it's a starting point, an enabler or an end goal we're supposed to drop all our tariffs as I said above, and also non-tariff barriers (like product standards).EU and the UK thereby leading to a big reduction in our trade with the EU?
No, not on a long-term basis.
As a starting point, the economically optimal trade strategy in most circumstances for the UK would
be to eliminate all tariff and non-tariff barriers unilaterally with respect to all our trading partners -
including the EU. However, whether or not such circumstances hold today, political interests driven
by old-fashioned mercantilism and protectionist producers used to forty years of EU protectionism
at the expense of consumers, makes implementing such a policy politically difficult.
Consequently, the UK’s route to global free trade is likely to be primarily through agreeing FTAs
with other countries, perhaps coupled with unilateral actions where we decide it is in our interests to
take them.
Their plan is a farce, only marginally worse that what TM is currently running. JRM and his types don't appear to be able to produce anything credible that can withstand scrutiny.
Their view is that we should persue FTA with efficient customs processing. No deal is a fallback (where they would still persue efficient customs processing).
One of the amusing things about the tweets regarding fruit and veg from outside the EU under FTA is that it tends to fly in the face of the gloom-mongers asserting that customs processing automatically means huge NTBs, delays and rotten produce...
Also ignores all the producers for whom FTAs aren't in place for.
PurpleMoonlight said:
jsf said:
That's all related to the current quotas agreements.
The joint letter to the WTO is found at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/joint...
Stop digging.The joint letter to the WTO is found at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/joint...
Look at the dates, that's a different notification.
Once the UK has left the EU and we know the situation with regards to our being bound by the transition deal or not, the UK will submit it's new tariff schedule. This may be tied to the EU rates on certain goods and services for the period of the transition deal, or it may be completely different from the start if there is no deal.
The schedule you are discussing is not the new schedule the UK will use long term, that will only be submitted once we know what any deal looks like. The schedule you are talking about is the one that will be in place on March 29 2019, whilst we sort out our future trading relationships. As the initial proposed schedule is currently confidential, you can't say it is to be the same as the EU one, which is what you did say.
These tariff schedules are modified regularly, the last change to the EU schedule occured on 7 June 2018.
There is little doubt the UK schedule is going to change significantly over the next few years, as we work out what the country needs based around how the future FTA's play out and any period of transition ends. Can you agree that point?
jsf said:
The FTA's UK will negotiate once we have back our legal right to do so. I'm sure you know right now it's illegal for the UK to create any FTA's, that's an EU competence.
Wait, you think our current gaggle are capable of negotiating FTA's with anyone without getting their arses handed to them?Just
Sway said:
p1stonhead said:
Wait, you think our current gaggle are capable of negotiating FTA's with anyone without getting their arses handed to them?
Just
How exactly can someone 'get their arse handed to them' in a bilaterally agreed FTA? Just
p1stonhead said:
Sway said:
p1stonhead said:
Wait, you think our current gaggle are capable of negotiating FTA's with anyone without getting their arses handed to them?
Just
How exactly can someone 'get their arse handed to them' in a bilaterally agreed FTA? Just
There's one bone of contention - one no other FTA will have to worry about. It's also one that's getting dealt with, with a wide range of options being discussed.
Sway said:
p1stonhead said:
Sway said:
p1stonhead said:
Wait, you think our current gaggle are capable of negotiating FTA's with anyone without getting their arses handed to them?
Just
How exactly can someone 'get their arse handed to them' in a bilaterally agreed FTA? Just
There's one bone of contention - one no other FTA will have to worry about. It's also one that's getting dealt with, with a wide range of options being discussed.
If so, how is it being dealt in any way whatsoever?
p1stonhead said:
Wait, you think our current gaggle are capable of negotiating FTA's with anyone without getting their arses handed to them?
Just
To an extent you have a point (ref the quality of our current leadership and the opposition options). Just
However, this isn't only about the current lot. It's about the next lot. And the lot after that. Until our politicians remember who they work for, and realise that mediocrity and easy options are not acceptable.
If we never get any worthy of their position, well that is then in large part down to all of us. No hiding places.
Murph7355 said:
p1stonhead said:
Wait, you think our current gaggle are capable of negotiating FTA's with anyone without getting their arses handed to them?
Just
To an extent you have a point (ref the quality of our current leadership and the opposition options). Just
However, this isn't only about the current lot. It's about the next lot. And the lot after that. Until our politicians remember who they work for, and realise that mediocrity and easy options are not acceptable.
If we never get any worthy of their position, well that is then in large part down to all of us. No hiding places.
Hey. Let's have another referendum. Bear with me here before anyone gets triggered...
This deadlock over NI/RoI border needs to be sorted out one way or another so everyone can move on with the important thing of actually getting on with Brexit and trade relationships etc etc. But, both side have somehow managed to paint themselves into a corner.
No British PM will countenance leaving NI in the CU because that'll mean splitting the UK (plus, those pesky but necessary DUP).
The EU has pushed too hard for NI to be left in the CU.
Some way has to be found that'll give each side a graceful face saver and allow compromise.
So, have a referendum in NI - ask them if they'd like to stay in the CU. If they say yes, that'll allow May to soften her position. If they say no, the EU know they've got to soften theirs. Do the English & Welsh really care anyway? What'd the Scots make of it?
This deadlock over NI/RoI border needs to be sorted out one way or another so everyone can move on with the important thing of actually getting on with Brexit and trade relationships etc etc. But, both side have somehow managed to paint themselves into a corner.
No British PM will countenance leaving NI in the CU because that'll mean splitting the UK (plus, those pesky but necessary DUP).
The EU has pushed too hard for NI to be left in the CU.
Some way has to be found that'll give each side a graceful face saver and allow compromise.
So, have a referendum in NI - ask them if they'd like to stay in the CU. If they say yes, that'll allow May to soften her position. If they say no, the EU know they've got to soften theirs. Do the English & Welsh really care anyway? What'd the Scots make of it?
slow_poke said:
So, have a referendum in NI - ask them if they'd like to stay in the CU. If they say yes, that'll allow May to soften her position. If they say no, the EU know they've got to soften theirs. Do the English & Welsh really care anyway? What'd the Scots make of it?
Because that won't split on sectarian lines as a proxy for reunification?Which ultimately is what a lot of the stuff coming from Ireland (and parroted through the EU) is actually coming from.
In a ‘free’ trade agreement, nothing is ‘free’ or else everyone would have them, and they wouldn’t take years to negotiate. Protectionism, regulations, quotas, allowances etc are always hidden in the ‘free’ part. The ‘we will simply sign a comprehensive set of FTA’s with the rest of the world’ is one of the greatest simplistic lies currently being spun, but the gullibles lap it up.
abzmike said:
In a ‘free’ trade agreement, nothing is ‘free’ or else everyone would have them, and they wouldn’t take years to negotiate. Protectionism, regulations, quotas, allowances etc are always hidden in the ‘free’ part. The ‘we will simply sign a comprehensive set of FTA’s with the rest of the world’ is one of the greatest simplistic lies currently being spun, but the gullibles lap it up.
Following the UK leaving the EU with all relationships in the air, It will all be fine by the following Tuesday, I'm sure....No other countries or companies would be seeking to capitalise on the UK's weak position at all, would they? We all know how quickly and smoothly these things progress too, don't we?
The fact that there was such an overwhelmingly unanimous backing for this venture across the entire nation, especially amongst the educated and professional classes, suggests that it will be great, doesn't it?
Doesn't it?
So long as the bitter and mild keeps flowing down at the British Legion, the bulk of the "winners" of the referendum will be happy.
Edited by MC Bodge on Thursday 27th September 10:15
MC Bodge said:
abzmike said:
In a ‘free’ trade agreement, nothing is ‘free’ or else everyone would have them, and they wouldn’t take years to negotiate. Protectionism, regulations, quotas, allowances etc are always hidden in the ‘free’ part. The ‘we will simply sign a comprehensive set of FTA’s with the rest of the world’ is one of the greatest simplistic lies currently being spun, but the gullibles lap it up.
Following the UK leaving the EU with all relationships in the air, It will all be fine by the following Tuesday, I'm sure....No other countries or companies would be seeking to capitalise on the UK's weak position at all, would they? We all know how quickly and smoothly these things progress too, don't we?
The fact that there was such an overwhelmingly unanimous backing for this venture across the entire nation, especially amongst the educated and professional classes, suggests that it will be great, doesn't it?
Doesn't it?
So long as the bitter and mild keeps flowing down at the British Legion, the bulk of the "winners" of the referendum will be happy.
Edited by MC Bodge on Thursday 27th September 10:15
Take the fact that the UK is one of the world's biggest consumers. The nations that we currently have FTAs with massively benefit from that, to the detriment of those who do not. The majority of those FTAs were driven, adopted or grandfathered due to the UK not wanting to lose them when we originally joined...
Will those nations 'circle for blood' - or look to maintain their existing arrangements by agreeing a swift FTA that broadly meets the existing agreement?
What prevents us from saying 'try to implement onerous terms and we'll just not sign, and reduce our tariffs across the board on the items we rely on imports - go compete on a level playing field if you can'?
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